Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers.

In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to estimate uncertainty in all the unknown parameters incorporated in our proposed model. Among the migrant population, 1.5572e-01 were susceptible to HIV transmission, which constituted 67,801 migrants. A proportion of migrants, 6.3773e-04, were estimated to be HIV infected, constituting 278 migrants. There were 72 (per 10,000) migrants estimated to have had AIDS, representing a proportion of 1.6611e-08. The result suggests that the disease-free steady state was unstable since the estimated basic reproduction number R 0 was 2.0906 and 2.3322 for the models without and with migration, respectively. This is not a good indicator from the public health point of view, as the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. The advantage of introduction of migration to the simple model validated the true R 0 and the transmission rate ß associated with HIV and AIDS epidemic disease in Malaysia. It also indicates an approximately 12 percentage points increase in the rate of HIV infection with migration.

Explaining inequalities in fruit and vegetable intake in Europe: The role of capabilities, opportunities and motivations.

People who do not eat enough fruit and vegetables (F&V) have incremental health risks. Most Europeans do not comply with health recommendations relating to F&V consumption and this is especially true for those with lower-level education, which reinforces structural inequalities in health and wellbeing among Europeans. This study investigated the role of key behavioural triggers - capabilities, opportunities and motivation (in the COM-B model) - as pathways for educational differentials in F&V intake in Europe. A cross-sectional survey-based study was conducted in five European countries differing widely in their consumption habits, wealth, and climatic conditions. A structural equation model was designed to study how capabilities (diet perceived knowledge, health purchase criteria), opportunities (financial availability, social norms), and motivations (health value, habits strength) affect educational inequalities in the intake of F&V (5 portions a day) as mediators. Multi-group comparisons assessed country differences. People with higher levels of education were more likely to eat the recommended diet, i.e., at least 5 portions of F&V a day. Countries in the sample vary significantly in the percentage of people complying with the recommendation, but not significantly in terms of relative education differentials. The educational gap in the intake of F&V is mainly explained by education differentials in financial availability, diet knowledge, and habits in inserting F&V in main meals. Policies targeting dietary inequalities should address behavioural triggers affecting dietary intake, for example by subsidising F&V, developing targeted dietary awareness campaigns, or by intervening in mass catering contexts to facilitate the implementation of healthy habits.

How to Achieve a Healthier and More Sustainable Europe by 2040 According to the Public? Results of a Five-Country Questionnaire Survey.

The aim of this paper is to understand public preferences for several future scenarios of achieving a healthier, more equitable and sustainable Europe, which differ in the way the society is organized (individualistically vs. collectively) and in the driving sector (public vs. private). To achieve this aim, we conducted a questionnaire survey using representative samples for five European countries in 2018. About three thousand respondents chose among the four scenarios presented within four different contexts (green spaces, active mobility, energy-efficient housing, food consumption) or none of them. A majority of people in the five European countries were ready to accept one of the scenarios. We found significant differences in preferences according to socioeconomic backgrounds and values of respondents. People above 35 years old, those who were less educated, and those in the lowest household income tertile were less supportive of all scenarios. The heterogeneity in preferences associated with differences in socioeconomic backgrounds was larger for the scenario in which society is organized individualistically and driven by the private sector. Smaller distinctions were found in case of the scenario in which society is organized collectively and is driven by the public sector. Departing from social psychological theories, we examine the role of altruistic, biospheric, egoistic, hedonic, and security values. People with stronger biospheric values were more likely to accept scenarios, particularly those which are driven by the public sector and where there is more collective organisation. Those with a more egoistic value orientation were more likely to have higher preferences for scenarios where the private sector had a dominant role. The policy implications, in terms of the selection and framing of policy measures to enhance public support, are discussed.

Providing Access to Urban Green Spaces: A Participatory Benefit-Cost Analysis in Spain.

The opening up of green spaces could provide significant benefits to society. This study develops a framework to assess the economic benefits and costs of public interventions providing citizen access to urban green spaces. The Thinking Fadura project in Getxo (Spain) was used as a case study. A method for participatory benefit-cost analysis is developed, where a stakeholder-participatory evaluation is combined with a standard cost-benefit analysis. The participatory evaluation followed a bottom-up approach in a sequential evaluation including three main focal points: key stakeholders and experts, visitors and the general public. The assessment demonstrates that the Thinking Fadura project's benefits outweigh the costs. The results suggest that projects designed with the purpose of improving green space accessibility to the general public can be beneficial from a societal perspective. The highest economic benefits were an increase in the amenity and recreational value and an increase in people's physical activity. The participatory evaluation indicates that giving access to people of lower socio-economic status and vulnerable groups and improving recreational use were perceived as the most beneficial. An increase in noise, dirt, and risk of criminal activities as well as potential conflicts between green space users were perceived as the most negative impacts of opening a previously restricted area to the general public. The economic assessment of Thinking Fadura project could serve as a model in the decision-making process in locations where the use of greenspaces is restricted.

Urban Green Space: Creating a Triple Win for Environmental Sustainability, Health, and Health Equity through Behavior Change.

Urbanization, costs of green space maintenance, and diminishing connection between people and nature all exert pressures on urban green space. This is regrettable as green space has the potential to create wins for environmental sustainability, health, and health equity. This paper explores this potential triple win and investigates how to increase the use of urban green space through behavior change. A narrative literature review was conducted and was supplemented with literature suggested by experts. Results show that creating well-designed green spaces and stimulating people to use them can indeed deliver this triple win. Providing accessible, attractive, well-maintained green space with room for socialization, and where people feel safe, may increase the opportunity and motivation of people to use it more often. Informing and educating people and organizing activities may increase capability (and motivation) to use green space. Since the use of green space depends on life stage, lifestyle factors and individual values, it is important to involve potential users in its design. We recommend a specific focus on those groups who may benefit most from the use of green space. More evaluation is needed to inform effective green space interventions and to assess related economic, social, and environmental benefits.

Ten Lessons for Good Practice for the INHERIT Triple Win: Health, Equity, and Environmental Sustainability.

The world's challenges of climate change, damage to ecosystems, and social and health inequalities require changes in human behaviours at every level of organisation, among governments, business, communities, and individuals. An important question is how behaviour change can be enabled and supported at the scale and speed required. The research reported in this paper describes important lessons for good practice in changing contexts to modify behaviours for a triple win for health, equity and environmental sustainability. Authors synthesised learning from qualitative, quantitative and cost benefit evaluations of 15 case studies conducted in 12 countries in Europe. The case studies address ways of living (green spaces and energy efficient housing), moving (active transport) and consuming (healthy and sustainable diets) that support the triple win. Ten lessons for good practice were identified. These include bringing a triple win mindset to policy and practice in planning interventions, with potential to improve environmental sustainability, health and equity at the same time. The lessons for good practice are intended to support governmental and non-governmental actors, practitioners and researchers planning to work across sectors to achieve mutual benefits for health and environmental sustainability and in particular to benefit poorer and more socio-economically disadvantaged groups.

Stochastic diffusion models to describe the evolution of annual heatwave statistics: A three-factor model with risk calculations.

In view of risk assessments this paper proposes a stochastic diffusion model to characterise statistics of extreme events when climate- or environmental variables surpass critical thresholds. The proposed three-factor model captures trend and volatility of such statistics and could prove valuable for climate and environmental impact analysis in many systems such as human health, agriculture or ecology. The model supports decisions in view of lowering risks to acceptable levels. We illustrate the development of the model for heatwave impacts on human health in the context of climate change. We propose a generic model composed of three random processes characterising annual statistics of heatwaves: a Poisson process characterising the number of heatwaves, a Gamma process characterising mean duration and a truncated Gaussian process capturing mean excess temperature of heatwave days. Additionally, potential correlations between the three processes are taken into account. The model is calibrated with data obtained from a regional climate model for two cities in Spain. The suitability of the model for probabilistic analysis is tested with Monte Carlo simulations. We assess the time-dependent probability distributions of heatwave-related mortality and demonstrate how to obtain relevant risk metrics such as the 95th percentile and the average of the 5% of worst cases (ES (95%)).

Valuing deaths or years of life lost? Economic benefits of avoided mortality from early heat warning systems.

The study aims to explore the main drivers influencing the economic appraisal of heat warning systems by integrating epidemiological modelling and benefit-cost analysis. To shed insights on heat wave mortality valuation, we consider three valuation schemes: (i) a traditional one, where the value of a statistical life (VSL) is applied to both displaced and premature mortality; (ii) an intermediate one, with VSL applied for premature mortality and value of a life year (VOLY) for displaced mortality; and (iii) a conservative one, where both premature and displaced mortality are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy, and then valued using the VOLY approach. When applying these three schemes to Madrid (Spain), we obtain a benefit-cost ratio varying from 12 to 3700. We find that the choice of the valuation scheme has the largest influence, whereas other parameters such as attributable risk, displaced mortality ratio, or the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of the heat warning system are less influential. The results raise the question of which is the most appropriate approach to value mortality in the context of heat waves, given that the lower bound estimate for the benefit-cost ratio (option iii using VOLY) is up to two orders of magnitude lower than the value based on the traditional VSL approach (option i). The choice of the valuation methodology has significant implications for public health authorities at the local and regional scale, which becomes highly relevant for locations where the application of the VOLY approach could lead to benefit-cost ratios significantly lower than 1. We propose that specific metrics for premature and displaced VOLYs should be developed for the context of heat waves. Until such values are available, we suggest testing the economic viability of heat warning systems under the three proposed valuation schemes (i-iii) and using values for VOLY commonly applied in air pollution as the health end points are similar. Lastly, periodical reassessment of heat alert plans should be performed by public health authorities to monitor their long-term viability and cost-effectiveness.

The nexus between climate change, ecosystem services and human health: Towards a conceptual framework.

This paper addresses the impact that changes in natural ecosystems can have on health and wellbeing focusing on the potential co-benefits that green spaces could provide when introduced as climate change adaptation measures. Ignoring such benefits could lead to sub-optimal planning and decision-making. A conceptual framework, building on the ecosystem-enriched Driver, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action model (eDPSEEA), is presented to aid in clarifying the relational structure between green spaces and human health, taking climate change as the key driver. The study has the double intention of (i) summarising the literature with a special emphasis on the ecosystem and health perspectives, as well as the main theories behind these impacts, and (ii) modelling these findings into a framework that allows for multidisciplinary approaches to the underlying relations between human health and green spaces. The paper shows that while the literature based on the ecosystem perspective presents a well-documented association between climate, health and green spaces, the literature using a health-based perspective presents mixed evidence in some cases. The role of contextual factors and the exposure mechanism are rarely addressed. The proposed framework could serve as a multidisciplinary knowledge platform for multi-perspecitve analysis and discussion among experts and stakeholders, as well as to support the operationalization of quantitative assessment and modelling exercises.

The health effects of climate change: a survey of recent quantitative research.

In recent years there has been a large scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct as well as indirect effects on human health. In particular, a large amount of research on the effects of climate changes on human health has addressed two fundamental questions. First, can historical data be of some help in revealing how short-run or long-run climate variations affect the occurrence of infectious diseases? Second, is it possible to build more accurate quantitative models which are capable of predicting the future effects of different climate conditions on the transmissibility of particularly dangerous infectious diseases? The primary goal of this paper is to review the most relevant contributions which have directly tackled those questions, both with respect to the effects of climate changes on the diffusion of non-infectious and infectious diseases, with malaria as a case study. Specific attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects of each study, which will be classified according to the type of quantitative model considered, namely time series models, panel data and spatial models, and non-statistical approaches. Since many different disciplines and approaches are involved, a broader view is necessary in order to provide a better understanding of the interactions between climate and health. In this respect, our paper also presents a critical summary of the recent literature related to more general aspects of the impacts of climate changes on human health, such as: the economics of climate change; how to manage the health effects of climate change; the establishment of Early Warning Systems for infectious diseases.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: low-carbon electricity generation.

In this report, the third in this Series on health and climate change, we assess the changes in particle air pollution emissions and consequent effects on health that are likely to result from greenhouse-gas mitigation measures in the electricity generation sector in the European Union (EU), China, and India. We model the effect in 2030 of policies that aim to reduce total carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions by 50% by 2050 globally compared with the effect of emissions in 1990. We use three models: the POLES model, which identifies the distribution of production modes that give the desired CO(2) reductions and associated costs; the GAINS model, which estimates fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter 2.5 microm or less (PM(2.5)) concentrations; and a model to estimate the effect of PM(2.5) on mortality on the basis of the WHO's Comparative Risk Assessment methods. Changes in modes of production of electricity to reduce CO(2) emissions would, in all regions, reduce PM(2.5) and deaths caused by it, with the greatest effect in India and the smallest in the EU. Health benefits greatly offset costs of greenhouse-gas mitigation, especially in India where pollution is high and costs of mitigation are low. Our estimates are approximations but suggest clear health gains (co-benefits) through decarbonising electricity production, and provide additional information about the extent of such gains.

Valuing climate change impacts on human health: empirical evidence from the literature.

There is a broad consensus that climate change will increase the costs arising from diseases such as malaria and diarrhea and, furthermore, that the largest increases will be in developing countries. One of the problems is the lack of studies measuring these costs systematically and in detail. This paper critically reviews a number of studies about the costs of planned adaptation in the health context, and compares current health expenditures with MDGs which are felt to be inadequate when considering climate change impacts. The analysis serves also as a critical investigation of the methodologies used and aims at identifying research weaknesses and gaps.

Discount rates in risk versus money and money versus money tradeoffs.

We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.