Development of a risk scoring system for predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia within subcentimetric polyps: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine a risk scoring system for predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) within subcentimetric polyps in a large Asian population. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in Hong Kong SAR, China involving participants who underwent colonoscopy between 2008 and 2015. A random sample of 20 072 subjects were included as the derivation cohort to assess ACN-associated independent factors using logistic regression modeling. Another 8603 subjects formed a validation cohort. A risk scoring system was developed and its performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The risk scores were assigned based on the following criteria: (a) patients who were admitted from inpatient colonoscopy (2.2) or not (1); (b) with three or more chronic diseases (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, heart disease, or cancer) (1.7) or not (1); (c) anemia (1.3) or without anemia (1); (d) receiving aspirin (0.5) or not (1); (e) receiving other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (0.3) or not (1); (f) male (1.2) or female gender (1); (g) age <55 (1), 55-64 (1.4), 65-69 (2), 70 years or above (2.2). ACN was more common in those with scores of 2.192 or higher, and they were classified as high risk (HR). The prevalence of ACN in the validation cohort was 13.28% and 3.56% in the HR and low-risk groups, respectively. In both the derivation and validation cohorts, AUROC of the risk-scoring model was 0.7138. CONCLUSION: Physicians are recommended to utilize this validated score for risk-stratification of patients having subcentimetric polyps.

Risk of recurrent advanced colorectal neoplasia in individuals with baseline non-advanced neoplasia followed up at 5 vs 7-10 years.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the commonest cancers, especially among the Asian populations. We compared the recurrence rate of advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) at 5 year vs 7-10 years among individuals with non-advanced adenoma (NAA) detected and polypectomized at baseline colonoscopy in a large Chinese population. METHODS: We extracted data of a large Chinese population with NAA polypectomized who received surveillance colonoscopy after 5 or 7-10 years from a large database (2008-2018). The outcome variable included recurrence of ACN at surveillance colonoscopy. We examined the association between length of surveillance and the outcome variable, whilst controlling for risk factors of colorectal cancer. RESULTS: We include 109 768 subjects who have received a baseline colonoscopy from our dataset. They were aged 67.35 (SD 9.84) years, and 60.9% of them were male subjects. The crude 5-year and 10-year recurrence rate of ACN was 1.50% and 2.42%, respectively (crude odds ratio = 1.629, 95% CI 1.362 to 1.949, P < 0.001). From the binary logistic regression model, individuals with surveillance colonoscopy performed at 10 years had a statistically higher recurrence rate of ACN than those followed-up at 5 year (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.544, 95% CI 1.266 to 1.877, P < 0.001), but the effect size of aOR is small. CONCLUSIONS: There is a small difference in recurrence of ACN between individuals who received colonoscopy workup at 5 years vs 7-10 years. These findings support a 7-10 years surveillance period after baseline NAA was polypectomized.

Prediction of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on metabolic parameters among symptomatic patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Worldwide, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and ranks second among the leading causes of cancer death. This study aims to devise and validate a scoring system based on metabolic parameters to predict the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) in a large Chinese population. METHODS: This was a cohort study of 495 584 symptomatic subjects aged 40 years or older who have received colonoscopy in Hong Kong from 1997 to 2017. The algorithm's discriminatory ability was evaluated as the area under the curve (AUC) of the mathematically constructed receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Age, male gender, inpatient setting, abnormal aspartate transaminase/alanine transaminase, white blood cell, plasma gamma-glutamyl transferase, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and hemoglobin A1c were significantly associated with ACN. A scoring of < 2.65 was designated as "low risk (LR)." Scores at 2.65 or above had prevalence higher than the overall prevalence and hence were assigned as "high risk (HR)." The prevalence of ACN was 32% and 11%, respectively, for HR and LR groups. The AUC for the risk score in the derivation and validation cohort was 70.12%. CONCLUSIONS: This study has validated a simple, accurate, and easy-to-use scoring algorithm, which has a high discriminatory capability to predict ACN in symptomatic patients. Future studies should examine its predictive performance in other population groups.

Recurrence rates of advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) in subjects with baseline ACN followed up at different surveillance intervals.

BACKGROUND: Current clinical guidelines recommend that a baseline finding of advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) should be followed-up within 1-3 years. AIM: We compared the recurrence rate of ACN at 1 year vs. 3 years among individuals with ACN detected and polypectomised at baseline colonoscopy. METHODS: We extracted data from eligible patients in a Chinese population database from 2008 to 2018. The outcome variables included recurrence of advanced adenoma and advanced neoplasia, respectively, at follow-up colonoscopy. Binary logistic regression modeling was constructed to examine the association between length of surveillance and the outcome variables, controlling for risk factors of colorectal cancer, including age, gender, smoking, alcohol drinking, body mass index and chronic diseases. RESULTS: We included 147,270 subjects who have received a baseline colonoscopy from our dataset. They were aged 69.3 years and 59.7% of them were male subjects. The crude 1-year and 3-year recurrence rate of ACN was 7.57% and 7.74%. From a binary logistic regression model, individuals with surveillance colonoscopy performed at 3 years did not have significantly higher recurrence rate of ACN than those followed-up at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: No statistically significantly difference in recurrence of ACN between individuals who received workup at 1vs. 3 years. These findings support a 3-year surveillance period after baseline ACN was polypectomised.