The Influence of Temperature and Community Structure on Light Absorption by Phytoplankton in the North Atlantic.

We present a model that estimates the spectral phytoplankton absorption coefficient ( a p h ( λ ) ) of four phytoplankton groups (picophytoplankton, nanophytoplankton, dinoflagellates, and diatoms) as a function of the total chlorophyll-a concentration (C) and sea surface temperature (SST). Concurrent data on a p h ( λ ) (at 12 visible wavelengths), C and SST, from the surface layer (<20 m depth) of the North Atlantic Ocean, were partitioned into training and independent validation data, the validation data being matched with satellite ocean-colour observations. Model parameters (the chlorophyll-specific phytoplankton absorption coefficients of the four groups) were tuned using the training data and found to compare favourably (in magnitude and shape) with results of earlier studies. Using the independent validation data, the new model was found to retrieve total a p h ( λ ) with a similar performance to two earlier models, using either in situ or satellite data as input. Although more complex, the new model has the advantage of being able to determine a p h ( λ ) for four phytoplankton groups and of incorporating the influence of SST on the composition of the four groups. We integrate the new four-population absorption model into a simple model of ocean colour, to illustrate the influence of changes in SST on phytoplankton community structure, and consequently, the blue-to-green ratio of remote-sensing reflectance. We also present a method of propagating error through the model and illustrate the technique by mapping errors in group-specific a p h ( λ ) using a satellite image. We envisage the model will be useful for ecosystem model validation and assimilation exercises and for investigating the influence of temperature change on ocean colour.

Satellite Ocean Colour: Current Status and Future Perspective.

Spectrally resolved water-leaving radiances (ocean colour) and inferred chlorophyll concentration are key to studying phytoplankton dynamics at seasonal and interannual scales, for a better understanding of the role of phytoplankton in marine biogeochemistry; the global carbon cycle; and the response of marine ecosystems to climate variability, change and feedback processes. Ocean colour data also have a critical role in operational observation systems monitoring coastal eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and sediment plumes. The contiguous ocean-colour record reached 21 years in 2018; however, it is comprised of a number of one-off missions such that creating a consistent time-series of ocean-colour data requires merging of the individual sensors (including MERIS, Aqua-MODIS, SeaWiFS, VIIRS, and OLCI) with differing sensor characteristics, without introducing artefacts. By contrast, the next decade will see consistent observations from operational ocean colour series with sensors of similar design and with a replacement strategy. Also, by 2029 the record will start to be of sufficient duration to discriminate climate change impacts from natural variability, at least in some regions. This paper describes the current status and future prospects in the field of ocean colour focusing on large to medium resolution observations of oceans and coastal seas. It reviews the user requirements in terms of products and uncertainty characteristics and then describes features of current and future satellite ocean-colour sensors, both operational and innovative. The key role of in situ validation and calibration is highlighted as are ground segments that process the data received from the ocean-colour sensors and deliver analysis-ready products to end-users. Example applications of the ocean-colour data are presented, focusing on the climate data record and operational applications including water quality and assimilation into numerical models. Current capacity building and training activities pertinent to ocean colour are described and finally a summary of future perspectives is provided.

Modelling the Stoichiometric Regulation of C-Rich Toxins in Marine Dinoflagellates.

Toxin production in marine microalgae was previously shown to be tightly coupled with cellular stoichiometry. The highest values of cellular toxin are in fact mainly associated with a high carbon to nutrient cellular ratio. In particular, the cellular accumulation of C-rich toxins (i.e., with C:N > 6.6) can be stimulated by both N and P deficiency. Dinoflagellates are the main producers of C-rich toxins and may represent a serious threat for human health and the marine ecosystem. As such, the development of a numerical model able to predict how toxin production is stimulated by nutrient supply/deficiency is of primary utility for both scientific and management purposes. In this work we have developed a mechanistic model describing the stoichiometric regulation of C-rich toxins in marine dinoflagellates. To this purpose, a new formulation describing toxin production and fate was embedded in the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), here simplified to describe a monospecific batch culture. Toxin production was assumed to be composed by two distinct additive terms; the first is a constant fraction of algal production and is assumed to take place at any physiological conditions. The second term is assumed to be dependent on algal biomass and to be stimulated by internal nutrient deficiency. By using these assumptions, the model reproduced the concentrations and temporal evolution of toxins observed in cultures of Ostreopsis cf. ovata, a benthic/epiphytic dinoflagellate producing C-rich toxins named ovatoxins. The analysis of simulations and their comparison with experimental data provided a conceptual model linking toxin production and nutritional status in this species. The model was also qualitatively validated by using independent literature data, and the results indicate that our formulation can be also used to simulate toxin dynamics in other dinoflagellates. Our model represents an important step towards the simulation and prediction of marine algal toxicity.

Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a food-web bioaccumulation model.

A global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (UA/SA) of a state-of-the-art, food-web bioaccumulation model was carried out. We used an efficient screening analysis technique to identify the subset of the most relevant input factors among the whole set of 227 model parameters. A quantitative UA/SA was then applied to this subset to rank the relevance of the parameters and to partition the variance of the model output among them by means of a nonlinear regression of the outcomes of 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The concentrations of four representative persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in two representative species of the coastal marine food web of the Lagoon of Venice (Italy) were taken as model outputs. The screening analysis showed that the ranking was remarkably different in relation to the species and chemical being considered. The subsequent Monte Carlo-based quantitative analysis pointed out that the relationships among some of the parameters and the model outputs were nonlinear. The nonlinear regression showed that the fraction of output variance accounted for by each parameter was strongly dependent on the range of the octanol-water partition coefficient (K(OW)) values being considered. For the less hydrophobic chemicals, the main sources of model uncertainty were the parameters related to the respiratory bioaccumulation, whereas for the more hydrophobic ones, K(OW) and the other parameters related to the dietary uptake explained the largest fractions of the variance of the chemical concentrations in the organisms. The analysis highlighted that efforts are still needed for reducing uncertainty of model parameters to get reliable results from the application of food web bioaccumulation models.