Exploring the Impact of Recycling on Demand-Supply Balance of Critical Materials in Green Transition: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Waste Input-Output Analysis.

Addressing our climate urgency requires various renewable and low-carbon technologies, which often contain critical materials that face potential supply risks. Existing studies on the critical material implications of green transition have used various methodologies, each with pros and cons in providing a system understanding. Here, we integrated the dynamic material flow analysis and input-output modeling principles in an integrated multi-regional waste input-output model to assess the demand-supply balance and recycling potentials for cobalt, lithium, neodymium, and dysprosium under various energy scenarios projected to 2050. We show that although all four critical materials are likely to face strong growth in annual demand (as high as a factor of 25 compared to the 2015 level), only cobalt has a higher cumulative demand by 2050 than the known reserves. Nevertheless, considering the sheer scale of demand increase and long lead time of opening or expanding new mines, recycling efforts are urgently needed to supplement primary supply toward global green transition. This model integration is proven useful and can be extended to more critical materials and green technologies.

Effects of Circularity Interventions in the European Plastic Packaging Sector.

Low levels of plastics circularity today reflect major challenges for the sector to reduce environmental impacts and a need for wider systemic change. In this work, we investigated the potential for climate and socioeconomic benefits of circular economy (CE) interventions in the plastic packaging system. By means of a mixed-unit input-output (IO) model, we performed a comparative scenario analysis for the development of demand and waste management up to 2030 within the EU-28 (EU27 + United Kingdom). We modeled the development of material flows and assessed the effects of both demand-side and end-of-life interventions. Different levels of ambition toward 2030 based on EU circular economy strategies were tested. Results showed that on reaching high levels of circularity, between 14 and 22 Mt CO2-eq/year could be reduced by 2030 (20-30% of the total sector impact in 2018) compared to business-as-usual. Demand change (e.g., by decreasing product packaging intensities) showed similar emission-saving potential as achieving the current recycling target of 55%, which emphasizes the role of demand-side actions. Most scenarios displayed moderate employment gains and potential economic losses, pertaining to both direct and indirect activity shifts in the economy. While considering model limitations, the approach is useful in indicating potential first-order effects of system changes.

Keep circularity meaningful, inclusive and practical: A view into the plastics value chain.

New policies to promote the circular economy have created an urgent need for businesses and public authorities to quantify and monitor the level of circularity of materials, components and products. However, flows of materials, components and products through society are inherently complex, involving intricate value chains, many stakeholders, and interests. We argue that current actions may be overly focused on superficial effects, and losing sight of true circular economy goals. Using plastic packaging as an example, the present contribution deliberates the questions, "does measuring circularity address its goals?", "does it cover new technologies and regional specificities?", and "can its goals be addressed with simple assessment approaches?". In answering these questions, we argue that there is an impending risk of cementing policy and infrastructures that may not contribute to true sustainability. Furthermore, future technologies and developing regions are hardly included in the current circularity strategies. To further spark a discussion on the challenge of simplicity, we present a scorecard which can help incumbents to approximate the level of sustainable circularity of their products.

Life Cycle Assessment of prospective MSW management based on integrated management planning in Campo Grande, Brazil.

A crucial first step in transforming problematic waste management into sustainable integrated systems is comprehensive planning and analysis of environmental and socio-economic effects. The work presented here is a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) that addressed the environmental performance of prospective development pathways for the municipal solid waste (MSW) management system in a large urban area, i.e. Campo Grande, Brazil. The research built on data and expanded the main development pathway proposed in the municipalities integrated waste management plan, which covers a period of 20 years (2017-2037). The system progression was assessed for milestone years (5-year intervals) considering projections of future population and waste generation growth, as well as addressing the development of surrounding systems, such as energy production. Results reveal that the rather conservative planned development pathway, which is largely based on gradual increase in selective collection, could successfully counter negative environmental externalities that would otherwise materialize due to increasing waste generation. A second, more ambitious, pathway with additionally scheduled actions to treat mixed MSW and upgrade certain treatment technologies (e.g. from composting to anaerobic digestion of collected organics), was used to illustrate a potential range for significantly higher impact reduction and even positive externalities, given a zero burden approach before waste generation.

The economic value of imports of combustible waste in systems with high shares of district heating and variable renewable energy.

This study analyses the socio-economic value of trade of combustible waste, taking Denmark as an example for importing countries with large district heating networks and already high shares of variable renewable energy. An integrated systems analysis framework allowed to assess under which circumstances import of wastes leads to less expensive waste management and energy, accounting for increasing ambitions for a circular economy and renewable energy. The dynamics of both systems are captured through two optimization models, which are solved simultaneously. OptiFlow optimizes Danish waste management and transport, and Balmorel, the Northern European energy system. Results show that waste import to cover the existing Danish incineration overcapacity during wintertime has definite economic value. Conversely, summertime import can have negative value unless a gate fee is received, with the exception of imports of waste with high calorific content (>16.2 GJ/t). In some cases, mothballing of up to 14% of the existing incineration plants is a cost-efficient alternative to decrease the level of over-capacity. In the longer term, results show a socio-economic value of importing waste, being mainly sensitive to assumptions regarding biomass prices and wind power cost, as the technologies would compete with incineration plants. The present methodology can be applied to other countries where waste-to-energy participates in district heating, and where variable renewable electricity and constraints on biomass resources are becoming important. A pan-regional approach regarding waste management planning to maximize the value from combustible waste might be desired, along with a coherent taxation to avoid competition based on tax differences.

The climate footprint of imports of combustible waste in systems with high shares of district heating and variable renewable energy.

This work addressed the role of waste-to-energy (WtE) within the growing paradigm of the circular economy (CE), by combining long-term co-optimization of waste management and energy systems, to determine possible economic and climate impact consequences of future WtE capacity utilization. Co-optimization was realized by integration of a network optimization model for the waste sector, OptiFlow, with the partial equilibrium energy systems model Balmorel. The modelling framework allows to determine the effects of waste-derived energy production within energy systems, including induced and avoided energy (production and long-term investments). The article documents the application of this framework to an analysis of waste trade for WtE between European countries in the base year 2014 and prospectively until 2035, taking Denmark as example for an importing country. Results indicating present and long-term economic benefits for waste trade, under socio-economic conditions, were documented in a concurrent publication. Here, a broader consequential LCA approach was employed to appraise climate change impact potential in a variety of foreground and background conditions. We find that in 2014, trade of residual combustible waste was mostly beneficial from a climate perspective, as the Danish energy system still relies partly on fossil fuels. Towards 2035, climate advantages are uncertain and dependent on avoidance of higher impact waste management (i.e. sanitary landfilling), the differences in the energy carbon-intensity of importing and exporting countries, impact of global biomass supply, and the type and quantity of traded waste. In general, benefits from waste-derived energy production will be offset by direct combustion emissions as background systems decarbonize. Waste transport played only a minor role in the outcome. The study showcases integration of ESA in waste LCA to better account for affected (often referred as marginal) energy production.

Environmental assessment of existing and alternative options for management of municipal solid waste in Brazil.

Life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to evaluate and compare three different categories of management systems for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Brazil: (1) mixed waste direct disposal systems, (2) separate collection systems, based on wet-dry streams, and (3) mixed waste mechanical-biological systems, including materials recovery. System scenarios were built around main treatment techniques available and applicable in developing countries, and considered barriers as well as potential synergies between waste management and other industrial production. In the first category systems, we measured the impact magnitude of improper disposal sites (semi-controlled and controlled dumps) still used for approximately 40% of collected MSW, and found that sanitary landfills could decrease it 3-5 fold (e.g. GWP, from 1100-1200 to 250-450 kg CO2 eq. t-1 waste). As an alternative, waste incineration did not show significant benefits over sanitary landfilling, due to limitations in energy utilization and the low-carbon background electricity system. Category two of systems, revealed recycling benefits and the necessity as well as potential risks of biological treatment for wet streams. Simple wet-dry collection could result in relatively high levels of contamination in compost outputs, which should be mitigated by intensive pre- and post-treatment. Potential impact of air emissions from biological degradation processes was important even after anaerobic digestion processes. Biogas upgrading and use as vehicle fuel resulted in bigger savings compared to direct electricity production. Lastly, category three, mechanical-biological systems, displayed savings in most environmental impact categories, associated with materials recovery for recycling and refuse-derived fuel (RDF) production and utilization in cement manufacturing.

Towards increased recycling of household waste: Documenting cascading effects and material efficiency of commingled recyclables and biowaste collection.

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management remains a challenge, even in Europe where several countries now possess capacity to treat all arising MSW, while others still rely on unsustainable disposal pathways. In the former, strategies to reach higher recycling levels are affecting existing waste-to-energy (WtE) treatment infrastructure, by inducing additional overcapacity and this in turn rebounds as pressure on the waste and recyclable materials markets. This study addresses such situations by documenting the effects, in terms of resource recovery, global warming potential (GWP) and cumulative energy demand (CED), of a transition from a self-sufficient waste management system based on minimal separate collection and efficient WtE, towards a system with extended separate collection of recyclable materials and biowaste. In doing so, it tackles key questions: (1) whether recycling and biological treatment are environmentally better compared to highly efficient WtE, and (2) what are the implications of overcapacity-related cascading effects, namely waste import, when included in the comparison of alternative waste management systems. System changes, such as the implementation of kerbside separate collection of recyclable materials were found to significantly increase material recovery, besides leading to substantial GWP and CED savings in comparison to the WtE-based system. Bio-waste separate collection contributed with additional savings when co-digested with manure, and even more significantly when considering future renewable energy background systems reflecting the benefits induced by the flexible use of biogas. Given the current liberalization of trade in combustible waste in Europe, waste landfilling was identified as a short-to-medium-term European-wide waste management marginal reacting to overcapacity effects induced by the implementation of increased recycling strategies. When waste import and, consequently, avoided landfilling were included in the system boundary, additional savings of up to 700 kg CO2 eq. and 16 GJ eq. of primary energy per tonne of imported waste were established. Conditions, such as energy recovery efficiency, and thresholds beyond which import-related savings potentially turn into GWP burdens were also determined.

Central sorting and recovery of MSW recyclable materials: A review of technological state-of-the-art, cases, practice and implications for materials recycling.

Today's waste regulation in the EU comprises stringent material recovery targets and calls for comprehensive programs in order to achieve them. A similar movement is seen in the US where more and more states and communities commit to high diversion rates from landfills. The present paper reviews scientific literature, case studies and results from pilot projects, on the topic of central sorting of recyclable materials commonly found in waste from households. The study contributes, inter alia, with background understanding on the development of materials recovery, both in a historical and geographical perspective. Physical processing and sorting technology has reached a high level of maturity, and many quality issues linked to cross-contamination by commingling have been successfully addressed to date. New sorting plants tend to benefit from economies of scale, and innovations in automation and process control, which are targeted at curtailing process inefficiencies shown by operational practice. Technology developed for the sorting of commingled recyclables from separate collection is also being successfully used to upgrade residual MSW processing plants. The strongest motivation for central sorting of residual MSW is found for areas where source separation and separate collection is difficult, such as urban agglomerations, and can in such areas contribute to increasing recycling rates, either complementary to- or as a substitute for source separation of certain materials, such as plastics and metals.

Energy implications of mechanical and mechanical-biological treatment compared to direct waste-to-energy.

Primary energy savings potential is used to compare five residual municipal solid waste treatment systems, including configurations with mechanical (MT) and mechanical-biological (MBT) pre-treatment, which produce waste-derived fuels (RDF and SRF), biogas and/or recover additional materials for recycling, alongside a system based on conventional mass burn waste-to-energy and ash treatment. To examine the magnitude of potential savings we consider two energy efficiency levels (state-of-the-art and best available technology), the inclusion/exclusion of heat recovery (CHP vs. PP) and three different background end-use energy production systems (coal condensing electricity and natural gas heat, Nordic electricity mix and natural gas heat, and coal CHP energy quality allocation). The systems achieved net primary energy savings in a range between 34 and 140 MJprimary/100 MJinput waste, in the different scenario settings. The energy footprint of transportation needs, pre-treatment and reprocessing of recyclable materials was 3-9.5%, 1-18% and 1-8% respectively, relative to total energy savings. Mass combustion WtE achieved the highest savings in scenarios with CHP production, nonetheless, MBT-based systems had similarly high performance if SRF streams were co-combusted with coal. When RDF and SRF was only used in dedicated WtE plants, MBT-based systems totalled lower savings due to inherent system losses and additional energy costs. In scenarios without heat recovery, the biodrying MBS-based system achieved the highest savings, on the condition of SRF co-combustion. As a sensitivity scenario, alternative utilisation of SRF in cement kilns was modelled. It supported similar or higher net savings for all pre-treatment systems compared to mass combustion WtE, except when WtE CHP was possible in the first two background energy scenarios. Recovery of plastics for recycling before energy recovery increased net energy savings in most scenario variations, over those of full stream combustion. Sensitivity to assumptions regarding virgin plastic substitution was tested and was found to mostly favour plastic recovery.