Derivation and validation of the clinical prediction model for COVID-19.

The epidemic phase of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) made the Worldwide health system struggle against a severe interstitial pneumonia requiring high-intensity care settings for respiratory failure. A rationalisation of resources and a specific treatment path were necessary. The study suggests a predictive model drawing on clinical data gathered by 119 consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted in Busto Arsizio hospital. We derived a score that identifies the risk of clinical evolution and in-hospital mortality clustering patients into four groups. The study outcomes have been compared across the derivation and validation samples. The prediction rule is based on eight simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with study outcomes. It is able to stratify COVID-19 patients into four severity classes, with in-hospital mortality rates of 0% in group 1, 6-12.5% in group 2, 7-20% in group 3 and 60-86% in group 4 across the derivation and validation sample. The prediction model derived in this study identifies COVID-19 patients with low risk of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. The prediction model that the study presents identifies COVID-19 patients with low risk of in-hospital mortality and admission to ICU. Moreover, it establishes an intermediate portion of patients that should be treated accurately in order to avoid an unfavourable clinical evolution. A further validation of the model is important before its implementation as a decision-making tool to guide the initial management of patients.

Clinical complexity and hospital admissions in the December holiday period.

BACKGROUND: Christmas and New Year's holidays are risk factors for hospitalization, but the causes of this "holiday effect" are uncertain. In particular, clinical complexity (CC) has never been assessed in this setting. We therefore sought to determine whether patients admitted to the hospital during the December holiday period had greater CC compared to those admitted during a contiguous non-holiday period. METHODS: This is a prospective, longitudinal study conducted in an academic ward of internal medicine in 2017-2019. Overall, 227 consecutive adult patients were enrolled, including 106 cases (mean age 79.4±12.8 years, 55 females; 15 December-15 January) and 121 controls (mean age 74.3±16.6 years, 56 females; 16 January-16 February). Demographic characteristics, CC, length of stay, and early mortality rate were assessed. Logistic regression analyses for the evaluation of independent correlates of being a holiday case were computed. RESULTS: Cases displayed greater CC (17.7±5.5 vs 15.2±5.9; p = 0.001), with greater impact of socioeconomic (3.51±1.7 vs 2.9±1.7; p = 0.012) and behavioral (2.36±1.6 vs 1.9±1.8; p = 0.01) CC components. Cases were also significantly frailer according to the Edmonton Frail Scale (8.0±2.8 vs 6.4±3.1; p<0.001), whilst having similar disease burden, as measured by the CIRS comorbidity index. Age (OR 1.02; p = 0.039), low income (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.10-3.55; p = 0.023), and total CC (OR 1.06; p = 0.014) independently correlated with the cases. Also, cases showed a longer length of stay (median 15.5 vs 11 days; p = 0.0016) and higher in-hospital (12 vs 4 events; p = 0.021) and 30-day (14 vs 6 events; p = 0.035) mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized during the December holiday period had worse health outcomes, and this could be attributable to the grater CC, especially related to socioeconomic (social deprivation, low income) and behavioral factors (inappropriate diet). The evaluation of all CC components could potentially represent a useful tool for a more rational resource allocation over this time of the year.

Recurrence Risk after First Symptomatic Distal versus Proximal Deep Vein Thrombosis According to Baseline Risk Factors.

Background It remains unclear whether the distal location of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is independently associated with a lower risk of recurrence in all patients, or represents a marker of the presence and severity of provoking factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods We investigated the impact of distal (vs. proximal) DVT location on the risk of developing symptomatic, objectively confirmed recurrent VTE in 831 patients with a first acute symptomatic DVT not associated with pulmonary embolism (PE), who were stratified by the presence of transient or persistent risk factors at baseline. The primary outcome was symptomatic, objectively diagnosed recurrent VTE, including proximal DVT and PE. Results A total of 205 (24.7%) patients presented with a transient risk factor, 189 (22.7%) with a minor persistent risk factor, 202 (24.3%) with unprovoked DVT, and 235 (28.3%) with cancer-associated DVT. One-hundred twenty-five patients (15.0%) experienced recurrent DVT or PE. The largest relative difference between patients with distal (vs. proximal) DVT was observed in the absence of identifiable risk factors (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.11; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 0.03-0.45). In patients with cancer, distal and proximal DVT had a comparable risk of recurrence (aHR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.28-1.78]). Conclusions The distal (vs. proximal) location of first acute symptomatic DVT represented, in the absence of any identifiable transient or persistent risk factors, a favorable prognostic factor for recurrence. In contrast, the prognostic impact of DVT location was weaker if persistent provoking risk factors for VTE were present, notably cancer.

Vascular endothelial growth factor overexpression in myelodysplastic syndrome bone marrow cells: biological and clinical implications.

In myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) may have regulatory effects on the hematopoietic system and contribute to disease progression. We analyzed by immunocytochemistry VEGF expression in bone marrow (BM) cells from 188 patients with MDS and 96 non-hemopathic subjects. We also measured VEGF BM plasma levels and in vitro VEGF release. Our aims were to evaluate whether VEGF expression abnormalities were associated with relevant laboratory or clinical findings and their possible prognostic value. In MDS, VEGF expression was higher than in controls (p < .0001) and VEGF release was significantly higher in the low-risk cases. A trend to a positive correlation between VEGF myeloid expression and apoptotic rate was observed. High myeloid VEGF levels were independently associated with longer overall survival (p < .0001) and progression-free survival (p = .0002). Our findings suggest that, in MDS, VEGF production and release may contribute to ineffective hematopoiesis, with a potential prognostic role.