Population Pharmacokinetics of Apixaban in Subjects With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.

This analysis describes the population pharmacokinetics (PPK) of apixaban in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) subjects, and quantifies the impact of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on exposure. The PPK model was developed using data from phase I-III studies. Apixaban exposure was characterized by a two-compartment PPK model with first-order absorption and elimination. Predictive covariates on apparent clearance included age, sex, Asian race, renal function, and concomitant strong/moderate cytochrome P450 (CYP)3A4/P-glycoprotein (P-gp) inhibitors. Individual covariate effects generally resulted in < 25% change in apixaban exposure vs. the reference NVAF subject (non-Asian, male, aged 65 years, weighing 70 kg without concomitant CYP3A4/P-gp inhibitors), except for severe renal impairment, which resulted in 55% higher exposure than the reference subject. The dose-reduction algorithm resulted in a ~27% lower median exposure, with a large overlap between the 2.5-mg and 5-mg groups. The impact of Asian race on apixaban exposure was < 15% and not considered clinically significant.

First-in-human study to assess the safety, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of BMS-962212, a direct, reversible, small molecule factor XIa inhibitor in non-Japanese and Japanese healthy subjects.

AIMS: The aims of the present study were to assess the safety, pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of BMS-962212, a first-in-class factor XIa inhibitor, in Japanese and non-Japanese healthy subjects. METHODS: This was a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, sequential, ascending-dose study of 2-h (part A) and 5-day (part B) intravenous (IV) infusions of BMS-962212. Part A used four doses (1.5, 4, 10 and 25 mg h-1 ) of BMS-962212 or placebo in a 6:2 ratio per dose. Part B used four doses (1, 3, 9 and 20 mg h-1 ) enrolling Japanese (n = 4 active, n = 1 placebo) and non-Japanese (n = 4 active, n = 1 placebo) subjects per dose. The PK, PD, safety and tolerability were assessed throughout the study. RESULTS: BMS-962212 was well tolerated; there were no signs of bleeding, and adverse events were mild. In parts A and B, BMS-962212 demonstrated dose proportionality. The mean half-life in parts A and B ranged from 2.04 to 4.94 h and 6.22 to 8.65 h, respectively. Exposure-dependent changes were observed in the PD parameters, activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and factor XI clotting activity (FXI:C). The maximum mean aPTT and FXI:C change from baseline at 20 mg h-1 in part B was 92% and 90%, respectively. No difference was observed in weight-corrected steady-state concentrations, aPTT or FXI:C between Japanese and non-Japanese subjects (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: BMS-962212 has tolerability, PK and PD properties suitable for investigational use as an acute antithrombotic agent in Japanese or non-Japanese subjects.

Model-Based Evaluation of Exenatide Effects on the QT Interval in Healthy Subjects Following Continuous IV Infusion.

Investigation of the cardiovascular proarrhythmic potential of a new chemical entity is now an integral part of drug development. Studies suggest that meals and glycemic changes can influence QT intervals, and a semimechanistic model has been developed that incorporates the effects of changes in glucose concentrations on heart rate (HR) and QT intervals. This analysis aimed to adapt the glucose-HR-QT model to incorporate the effects of exenatide, a drug that reduces postprandial increases in glucose concentrations. The final model includes stimulatory drug effects on glucose elimination and HR perturbations. The targeted and constant exenatide plasma concentrations (>200 pg/mL), via intravenous infusions at multiple dose levels, resulted in significant inhibition of glucose concentrations. The exenatide concentration associated with 50% of the stimulation of HR production was 584 pg/mL. After accounting for exenatide effects on glucose and HR, no additional drug effects were required to explain observed changes in the QT interval. Resulting glucose, HR, and QT profiles at all exenatide concentrations were adequately described. For therapeutic agents that alter glycemic conditions, particularly those that alter postprandial glucose, the QT interval cannot be directly compared to that with placebo without first accounting for confounding factors (eg, glucose) either through mathematical modeling or careful consideration of mealtime placement in the study design.

Influence of Meals and Glycemic Changes on QT Interval Dynamics.

Thorough QT/QTc studies have become an integral part of early drug development programs, with major clinical and regulatory implications. This analysis expands on existing pharmacodynamic models of QT interval analysis by incorporating the influence of glycemic changes on the QT interval in a semimechanistic manner. A total of 21 healthy subjects enrolled in an open-label phase 1 pilot study and provided continuous electrocardiogram monitoring and plasma glucose and insulin concentrations associated with a 24-hour baseline assessment. The data revealed a transient decrease in QTc, with peak suppression occurring approximately 3 hours after the meal. A semimechanistic modeling approach was applied to evaluate temporal delays between meals and subsequent changes that might influence QT measurements. The food effect was incorporated into a model of heart rate dynamics, and additional delayed effects of the meal on QT were incorporated using a glucose-dependent hypothetical transit compartment. The final model helps to provide a foundation for the future design and analysis of QT studies that may be confounded by meals. This study has significant implications for QT study assessment following a meal or when a cohort is receiving a medication that influences postprandial glucose concentrations.

Population Pharmacokinetics of an Extended-Release Formulation of Exenatide Following Single- and Multiple-Dose Administration.

Exenatide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist with both immediate- and extended-release (ER) formulations that are approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Long-term exposure from the ER formulation is achieved through slow peptide release from a degradable microsphere formulation. The goal of this analysis was to develop a pharmacokinetic model for the ER formulation following single and once-weekly multiple-dose administration. Pharmacokinetic data were collected from two clinical trials-one that evaluated single-dose administration of 2.5, 5, 7, and 10 mg of ER exenatide and a second that included weekly administration of 0.8 and 2 mg for 15 weeks. A population pharmacokinetic model, describing 1586 exenatide concentrations from 64 patients, was developed in the nonlinear mixed-effects modeling software program NONMEM. Pharmacokinetics of the ER formulation was described by a two-compartment model with linear and nonlinear elimination. The complex absorption profile was quantified using three simultaneous processes: a first-order process characterizing a rapid initial release and two series of transit compartments to describe the second (∼3 weeks postinjection) and third phases of drug release (∼7 weeks postinjection). Estimation of the combined single- and multiple-dose data adequately described the rise to steady-state (∼8-10 weeks) and decline to undetectable concentrations that occurred about 10 weeks after treatment cessation. Thus, a population-based pharmacokinetic model was developed that provides a platform for future pharmacodynamic analyses with the ER formulation of exenatide.

Population pharmacokinetics of exenatide.

AIM: The aim of the present analysis was to develop a core population pharmacokinetic model for the pharmacokinetic properties of immediate-release (IR) exenatide, which can be used in subsequent analyses of novel sustained-release formulations. METHODS: Data from eight clinical trials, evaluating a wide range of doses and different administration routes, were available for analysis. All modelling and simulations were conducted using the nonlinear mixed-effect modelling program NONMEM. External model validation was performed using data from the phase III clinical trials programme through standard visual predictive checks. RESULTS: The pharmacokinetics of IR exenatide was described by a two-compartment model, and the absorption of subcutaneous exenatide was described with a sequential zero-order rate constant followed by a saturable nonlinear absorption process. Drug elimination was characterized by two parallel routes (linear and nonlinear), with significant relationships between renal function and the linear elimination route, and between body weight and volume of distribution. For a subject with normal renal function, the linear clearance was estimated to be 5.06 l hr-1 . The nonlinear elimination was quantified with a Michaelis-Menten constant (Km ) of 567 pg ml-1 and a maximum rate of metabolism (Vmax ) of 1.6 µg h-1 . For subcutaneous administration, 37% of the subcutaneous dose is absorbed via the zero-order process, and the remaining 63% via the nonlinear pathway. CONCLUSIONS: The present analysis provides a comprehensive population pharmacokinetic model for exenatide, expanding the elimination process to include both linear and nonlinear components, providing a suitable platform for a broad range of concentrations and patient conditions that can be leveraged in future modelling efforts of sustained-release exenatide formulations.

Population Pharmacokinetics Analysis To Inform Efavirenz Dosing Recommendations in Pediatric HIV Patients Aged 3 Months to 3 Years.

Efavirenz (EFV) is a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor approved worldwide for the treatment of HIV in adults and children over 3 years of age or weighing over 10 kg. Only recently EFV was approved in children over 3 months and weighing at least 3.5 kg in the United States and the European Union. The objective of this analysis was to support the selection of an appropriate dose for this younger pediatric population and to explore the impact of CYP2B6 genetic polymorphisms on EFV systemic exposures. A population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model was developed using data from three studies in HIV-1-infected pediatric subjects (n = 168) and one study in healthy adults (n = 24). The EFV concentration-time profile was best described by a two-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination. Body weight was identified as a significant predictor of efavirenz apparent clearance (CL), oral central volume of distribution (VC), and absorption rate constant (Ka). The typical values of efavirenz apparent CL, VC, oral peripheral volume of distribution (VP), and Ka for a reference pediatric patient were 4.8 liters/h (4.5 to 5.1 liters/h), 84.9 liters (76.8 to 93.0 liters), 287 liters (252.6 to 321.4 liters), and 0.414 h(-1) (0.375 to 0.453 h(-1)), respectively. The final model was used to simulate steady-state efavirenz concentrations in pediatric patients weighing <10 kg to identify EFV doses that produce comparable exposure to adult and pediatric patients weighing ≥10 kg. Results suggest that administration of EFV doses of 100 mg once daily (QD) to children weighing ≥3.5 to <5 kg, 150 mg QD to children weighing ≥5 to <7.5 kg, and 200 mg QD to children weighing ≥7.5 to <10 kg produce exposures within the target range. Further evaluation of the impact of CYP2B6 polymorphisms on EFV PK showed that the identification of CYP2B6 genetic status is not predictive of EFV exposure and thus not informative to guide pediatric dosing regimens.

Exenatide at therapeutic and supratherapeutic concentrations does not prolong the QTc interval in healthy subjects.

AIMS: Exenatide has been demonstrated to improve glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes, with no effect on heart rate corrected QT (QTc ) at therapeutic concentrations. This randomized, placebo- and positive-controlled, crossover, thorough QT study evaluated the effects of therapeutic and supratherapeutic exenatide concentrations on QTc . METHODS: Intravenous infusion was employed to achieve steady-state supratherapeutic concentrations in healthy subjects within a reasonable duration (i.e. days). Subjects received exenatide, placebo and moxifloxacin, with ECGs recorded pre-therapy and during treatment. Intravenous exenatide was expected to increase heart rate to a greater extent than subcutaneous twice daily or once weekly formulations. To assure proper heart rate correction, a wide range of baseline heart rates was assessed and prospectively defined methodology was applied to determine the optimal QT correction. RESULTS: Targeted steady-state plasma exenatide concentrations were exceeded (geometric mean ± SEM 253 ± 8.5 pg ml(-1) , 399 ± 11.9 pg ml(-1) and 627 ± 21.2 pg ml(-1) ). QTc P, a population-based method, was identified as the most appropriate heart rate correction and was prespecified for primary analysis. The upper bound of the two-sided 90% confidence interval for placebo-corrected, baseline-adjusted QTc P (ΔΔQTc P) was <10 ms at all time points and exenatide concentrations. The mean of three measures assessed at the highest steady-state plasma exenatide concentration of ∼500 pg ml(-1) (ΔΔQTc P(avg) ) was -1.13 [-2.11, -0.15). No correlation was observed between ΔΔQTc P and exenatide concentration. Assay sensitivity was confirmed with moxifloxacin. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrated that exenatide, at supratherapeutic concentrations, does not prolong QTc and provide an example of methodology for QT assessment of drugs with an inherent heart rate effect.

Study reanalysis using a mechanism-based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model of pramlintide in subjects with type 1 diabetes.

This report describes a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for pramlintide, an amylinomimetic, in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). Plasma glucose and drug concentrations were obtained following bolus and 2-h intravenous infusions of pramlintide at three dose levels or placebo in 25 T1DM subjects during the postprandial period in a crossover study. The original clinical data were reanalyzed by mechanism-based population modeling. Pramlintide pharmacokinetics followed a two-compartment model with zero-order infusion and first-order elimination. Pramlintide lowered overall postprandial plasma glucose AUC (AUC(net)) and delayed the time to peak plasma glucose after a meal (T (max)). The delay in glucose T (max) and reduction of AUC(net) indicate that overall plasma glucose concentrations might be affected by differing mechanisms of action of pramlintide. The observed increase in glucose T (max) following pramlintide treatment was independent of dose within the studied dose range and was adequately described by a dose-independent, maximum pramlintide effect on gastric emptying of glucose in the model. The inhibition of endogenous glucose production by pramlintide was described using a sigmoidal function with capacity and sensitivity parameter estimates of 0.995 for I (max) and 23.8 pmol/L for IC(50). The parameter estimates are in good agreement with literature values and the IC(50) is well within the range of postprandial plasma amylin concentrations in healthy humans, indicating physiological relevance of the pramlintide effect on glucagon secretion in the postprandial state. This model may prove to be useful in future clinical studies of other amylinomimetics or antidiabetic drugs with similar mechanisms of action.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of exenatide extended-release after single and multiple dosing.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Exenatide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, available in an immediate-release (IR), twice-daily formulation, which improves glycaemic control through enhancement of glucose-dependent insulin secretion, suppression of inappropriately elevated postprandial glucagon secretion, slowing of gastric emptying and reduction of food intake. The objectives of these studies were to assess the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of an extended-release (ER) exenatide formulation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with type 2 diabetes participated in either a single-dose trial (n = 62) or a repeated-administration trial (n = 45). The pharmacokinetic and safety effects of single-dose subcutaneous administration of exenatide ER (2.5 mg, 5 mg, 7 mg or 10 mg) versus placebo were studied over a period of 12 weeks in patients with type 2 diabetes. These results were used to predict the dose regimen of exenatide ER required to achieve steady-state therapeutic plasma exenatide concentrations. A second clinical study investigated the pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and safety of weekly exenatide ER subcutaneous injections (0.8 mg or 2 mg) versus placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes over a period of 15 weeks. Furthermore, population-based analyses of these studies were performed to further define the exposure-response relationships associated with exenatide ER. RESULTS: Exenatide exposure increased with dose (2.5 mg, 5 mg, 7 mg or 10 mg) and exhibited a multiple-peak profile over approximately 10 weeks. Multiple-dosing pharmacokinetics were predicted from superpositioning of single-dose data; weekly administration of exenatide ER 0.8 mg and 2 mg for 15 weeks confirmed the predictions. Weekly dosing resulted in steady-state plasma exenatide concentrations after 6-7 weeks. Fasting plasma glucose levels were reduced similarly with both doses after 15 weeks (-42.7 ± 15.7 mg/dL with the 0.8 mg dose and -39.0 ± 9.3 mg/dL with the 2 mg dose; both p < 0.001 vs placebo), and the integrated exposure-response analysis demonstrated that the drug concentration producing 50% of the maximum effect (EC(50)) on fasting plasma glucose was 56.8 pg/mL (a concentration achieved with both the 0.8 mg and 2 mg doses of exenatide ER). The 2 mg dose reduced bodyweight (-3.8 ± 1.4 kg; p < 0.05 vs placebo) and postprandial glucose excursions. Glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA(1c)) levels were reduced with the 0.8 mg dose (-1.4 ± 0.3%; baseline 8.6%) and with the 2 mg dose (-1.7 ± 0.3%; baseline 8.3%) [both p < 0.001 vs placebo]. Adverse events were generally transient and mild to moderate in intensity. CONCLUSION: These studies demonstrated that (i) a single subcutaneous dose of exenatide ER resulted in dose-related increases in plasma exenatide concentrations; (ii) single-dose exposure successfully predicted the weekly-dosing exposure, with 0.8 mg and 2 mg weekly subcutaneous doses of exenatide ER eliciting therapeutic concentrations of exenatide; and (iii) weekly dosing with either 0.8 or 2 mg of exenatide ER improved fasting plasma glucose control, whereas only the 2 mg dose was associated with improved postprandial glucose control and weight loss. [Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00103935].

Development of a population pharmacokinetic model for taranabant, a cannibinoid-1 receptor inverse agonist.

Taranabant is a cannabinoid-1 receptor inverse agonist developed for the treatment of obesity. A population model was constructed to facilitate the estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters and to identify the influence of selected covariates. Data from 12 phase 1 studies and one phase 2 study were pooled from subjects administered single and multiple oral doses of taranabant ranging from 0.5 to 8 mg. A total of 6,834 taranabant plasma concentrations from 187 healthy and 385 obese subjects were used to develop the population model in NONMEM. A standard covariate analysis using forward selection (α = 0.05) and backward elimination (α = 0.001) was conducted. A three-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described plasma taranabant concentrations. The population mean estimates for apparent clearance and apparent steady-state volume of distribution were 25.4 L/h and 2,578 L, respectively. Statistically significant covariate effects were modest in magnitude and not considered clinically relevant (the effects of body mass index (BMI) and creatinine clearance (CrCL) on apparent clearance; BMI, age, CrCL, and gender on apparent volume of the peripheral compartment and age on apparent intercompartmental clearance). The pharmacokinetic profile of taranabant can adequately be described by a three-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination. Clinical dose adjustment based on covariates effects is not warranted.

Population pharmacokinetic analysis of linezolid in patients with infectious disease: application to lower body weight and elderly patients.

Linezolid (Zyvox), belonging to oxazolidinone antibiotics, is commonly used for the treatment of patients infected with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant enterococci. Although linezolid has been approved worldwide, the Japanese pharmacokinetic (PK) profile has not been characterized in detail. The objective of this study is to develop a population PK model for linezolid that can be applied to a Japanese population. This population PK model was established based on the 1 Japanese phase III and 4 Caucasian phase II/III studies. A total of 2539 linezolid plasma concentration measurements from 455 patients, aged 18 to 98 years and body weight 30 to 190.5 kg, were used for the analysis. The data were analyzed using nonlinear mixed effects modeling. Body weight (BW), age, ethnicity, and gender were investigated as covariates. The final model was validated by the bootstrap technique. The PK profiles of linezolid were described with a 1-compartment PK model with first-order absorption and first-order elimination. In the final population PK model, BW and age were influential covariates on clearance, and the distribution volume was affected by BW. The present population PK model of linezolid described well the PK profiles in Japanese patients who have lower BW and are relatively older compared with those in the United States/European Union.

Application of patient population-derived pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships to tigecycline breakpoint determination for staphylococci and streptococci.

Correctly determined susceptibility breakpoints are important to both the individual patient and to society at large. A previously derived patient population pharmacokinetic model and Monte Carlo simulation (9999 patients) were used to create a likelihood distribution of tigecycline exposure, as measured by the area under the concentration-time curve at 24 h (AUC(24)). Each resultant AUC(24) value was paired with a clinically relevant fixed MIC value ranging from 0.12 to 2 mg/L. For each AUC(24)-MIC pair, the probability of microbiologic response was calculated using an exposure-response relationship, which was derived from patients with complicated skin and skin structure infections that involved Staphylococcus aureus or streptococci or both. The median probability of microbiologic success was 94% or greater for MIC values up to and including 0.25 mg/L. The median probability of microbiologic success was 66% or less for MIC values of 0.5 mg/L or greater. These data support a susceptibility breakpoint of 0.25 mg/L for S. aureus and streptococci.

Use of a clinically derived exposure-response relationship to evaluate potential tigecycline-Enterobacteriaceae susceptibility breakpoints.

Potential tigecycline-Enterobacteriaceae susceptibility breakpoints were evaluated using 2 approaches, which differed in the nature of the probabilities assessed by MIC value. Using a previously derived tigecycline population pharmacokinetic model and Monte Carlo simulation, a probability density function of steady-state area under the concentration-time curve for 24 h (AUC(SS(0-24))) values for 9999 patients was generated. AUC(SS(0-24)) values were divided by clinically relevant fixed MIC values to derive AUC(SS(0-24))/MIC ratios, which were used to calculate the clinical response expectation by MIC value based upon a logistic regression model for efficacy (1st approach). For the 2nd approach, the probability of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) target attainment was calculated as the proportion of patients with AUC(SS(0-24))/MIC ratios greater than the threshold value of 6.96, the PK-PD target associated with optimal clinical response. Probabilities of clinical response and PK-PD target attainment were poorly correlated at MIC values >0.25 mg/L. For instance, the median probability of clinical success was 0.76, whereas the probability of PK-PD target attainment was 0.27 at an MIC value of 1 mg/L, suggesting that the probability of PK-PD target attainment metrics underestimates the clinical performance of tigecycline at higher MIC values.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of gatifloxacin in children with recurrent otitis media: application of sparse sampling in clinical development.

Gatifloxacin is a 4th-generation fluoroquinolone previously under investigation for the treatment of otitis media in infants and children. These analyses were designed to evaluate the extent of drug exposure relative to adult populations and to examine the relationship between drug exposure and response to therapy in children with recurrent otitis media or early treatment failures of acute otitis media. The patient population included 187 patients from an open-label, multicenter, noncomparative study using gatifloxacin 10 mg/kg once daily. Gatifloxacin exposure was estimated using a single steady-state blood sample in conjunction with a pharmacostatistical model developed using a separate pediatric data set. Gatifloxacin exposure was equivalent to that in adults given 400 mg daily. Of the 41 patients who had Streptococcus pneumoniae from middle ear culture, there were only 3 bacteriologic failures; there was no relationship between plasma fu AUC(0-24):MIC ratio and outcome. In conclusion, population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic methods allowed estimation of drug exposure using one sample per patient.

Informatics: the fuel for pharmacometric analysis.

The current informal practice of pharmacometrics as a combination art and science makes it hard to appreciate the role that informatics can and should play in the future of the discipline and to comprehend the gaps that exist because of its absence. The development of pharmacometric informatics has important implications for expediting decision making and for improving the reliability of decisions made in model-based development. We argue that well-defined informatics for pharmacometrics can lead to much needed improvements in the efficiency, effectiveness, and reliability of the pharmacometrics process. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the pervasive yet often poorly appreciated role of informatics in improving the process of data assembly, a critical task in the delivery of pharmacometric analysis results. First, we provide a brief description of the pharmacometric analysis process. Second, we describe the business processes required to create analysis-ready data sets for the pharmacometrician. Third, we describe selected informatic elements required to support the pharmacometrics and data assembly processes. Finally, we offer specific suggestions for performing a systematic analysis of existing challenges as an approach to defining the next generation of pharmacometric informatics.

Population pharmacokinetic model for gatifloxacin in pediatric patients.

The broad spectrum of antimicrobial activity, oral bioavailability, extensive tissue distribution, and once-daily intravenous or oral dosing of gatifloxacin, an expanded-spectrum 8-methoxy fluoroquinolone, make it a potentially useful agent for the treatment of pediatric infections. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed to describe the pharmacokinetics of gatifloxacin in children. Data for analysis were obtained from a single-dose safety/pharmacokinetic study utilizing intensive blood sampling in patients aged 6 months to 16 years. Each subject received a single oral dose of gatifloxacin as a suspension, at doses of 5, 10, or 15 mg/kg of body weight. A total of 845 samples were obtained from 82 patients. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was the most appropriate to describe the gatifloxacin concentrations. Covariate analysis using forward selection and backward elimination found that apparent clearance was related to body surface area, and apparent volume of distribution was related to body weight. No effect of age on drug clearance could be identified once clearance was corrected for body surface area. Based on pharmacokinetic simulations, the 10-mg/kg (maximum, 400 mg) once-daily dose of gatifloxacin is expected to provide drug exposure similar to that in healthy adults. The population pharmacokinetic model described herein will be used for Bayesian analyses of sparse pharmacokinetic sampling in phase II/III clinical trials and for Monte Carlo simulation experiments. The success of this strategy provides a model for future pediatric drug development programs.

Challenges in the transition to model-based development.

Practitioners of the art and science of pharmacometrics are well aware of the considerable effort required to successfully complete modeling and simulation activities for drug development programs. This is particularly true because of the current, ad hoc implementation wherein modeling and simulation activities are piggybacked onto traditional development programs. This effort, coupled with the failure to explicitly design development programs around modeling and simulation, will continue to be an important obstacle to the successful transition to model-based drug development. Challenges with timely data availability, high data discard rates, delays in completing modeling and simulation activities, and resistance of development teams to the use of modeling and simulation in decision making are all symptoms of an immature process capability for performing modeling and simulation. A process that will fulfill the promise of model-based development will require the development and deployment of three critical elements. The first is the infrastructure--the data definitions and assembly processes that will allow efficient pooling of data across trials and development programs. The second is the process itself--developing guidelines for deciding when and where modeling and simulation should be applied and the criteria for assessing performance and impact. The third element concerns the organization and culture--the establishment of truly integrated, multidisciplinary, and multiorganizational development teams trained in the use of modeling and simulation in decision-making. Creating these capabilities, infrastructure, and incentivizations are critical to realizing the full value of modeling and simulation in drug development.