Validation of a human thermoregulatory model during prolonged immersion in warm water.

This study validates the Six Cylinder Thermoregulatory Model (SCTM) during prolonged warm water immersion, which underpins the Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) currently in use by the United States Coast Guard (USCG). PSDA predicts survival time for hypothermia and dehydration. USCG has been using PSDA for search and rescue operation since 2010. In 2019, USCG organized a workshop to review PSDA performance and concluded that PSDA is an essential tool for operation, although it occasionally overestimates survival times in warm waters above 16 °C. Forty-six human subjects were immersed from the neck down in 18, 22, and 26 °C water for 45 min up to 10 h. Rectal temperature (Tcore), 10-site mean skin temperature (Tsk), and water loss were measured. At the end of immersion, Tcore ranged from 35.2 to 38.0 °C, and Tsk ranged from 19.7 to 27.4 °C. The SCTM-predicted Tcore, Tsk and water loss were compared to the measured values. Root mean squared deviation (RMSD) was used to test for acceptable predictions. Tcore RMSDs were 0.2, 0.14, and 0.3 °C in 18, 22, and 26 °C water respectively. Tsk RMSDs were 1.44, 0.76, and 1.1 °C in 18, 22, and 26 °C water respectively. SCTM underpredicted water loss by 84%. Overall, SCTM predicted Tcore and Tsk with acceptable accuracy in 18 and 22 °C water for up to 10 h, but overpredicted in 26 °C water. Future studies and algorithm development are required to improve water loss prediction as well as Tcore and Tsk prediction in 26 °C water.

Survival time and search time in water: Past, present and future.

The prediction of survival time for those immersed in water remains a key element in the function of search and rescue organisations around the globe. The data on which such predictions are made come from laboratory studies and actual incidents. The UK National Immersion Incident Survey (UKNIIS) represents one of the largest surveys undertaken in this area. The UKNIIS data are obtained by questionnaire from immersion incidents around the British Isles. The survey has been in operation since 1991 and at the time of writing contained almost 1600 cases. The aim of the present work was to analyse these cases with the aim of establishing a model for the prediction of survival time in water. This analysis is described in this paper: two model approaches are presented and their strengths and weaknesses are discussed. Recommendations for the use and development of such models are made.