Development and internal validation of a dynamic fall risk prediction and monitoring tool in aged care using routinely collected electronic health data: a landmarking approach.

OBJECTIVES: Falls pose a significant challenge in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Existing falls prediction tools perform poorly and fail to capture evolving risk factors. We aimed to develop and internally validate dynamic fall risk prediction models and create point-based scoring systems for residents with and without dementia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study using electronic data from 27 RACFs in Sydney, Australia. The study included 5492 permanent residents, with a 70%-30% split for training and validation. The outcome measure was the incidence of falls. We tracked residents for 60 months, using monthly landmarks with 1-month prediction windows. We employed landmarking dynamic prediction for model development, a time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCC) for model evaluations, and a regression coefficient approach to create point-based scoring systems. RESULTS: The model identified 15 independent predictors of falls in dementia and 12 in nondementia cohorts. Falls history was the key predictor of subsequent falls in both dementia (HR 4.75, 95% CI, 4.45-5.06) and nondementia cohorts (HR 4.20, 95% CI, 3.87-4.57). The AUROCC across landmarks ranged from 0.67 to 0.87 for dementia and from 0.66 to 0.86 for nondementia cohorts but generally remained between 0.75 and 0.85 in both cohorts. The total point risk score ranged from -2 to 57 for dementia and 0 to 52 for nondementia cohorts. DISCUSSION: Our novel risk prediction models and scoring systems provide timely person-centered information for continuous monitoring of fall risk in RACFs. CONCLUSION: Embedding these tools within electronic health records could facilitate the implementation of targeted proactive interventions to prevent falls.

Variation in care and outcomes for people after hip fracture with and without cognitive impairment; results from the Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry.

BACKGROUND: People with dementia have poorer outcomes after hip fracture and this may be due in part to variation in care. We aimed to compare care and outcomes for people with and without cognitive impairment after hip fracture. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry data for people ≥50 years of age who underwent hip fracture surgery (n = 49,063). Cognitive impairment or known dementia and cognitively healthy groups were defined using preadmission cognitive status. Descriptive statistics and multivariable mixed effects models were used to compare groups. RESULTS: In general, cognitively impaired people had worse care and outcomes compared to cognitively healthy older people. A lower proportion of the cognitively impaired group had timely pain assessment (≤30 min of presentation: 61% vs 68%; p < 0.0001), were given the opportunity to mobilise (89% vs 93%; p < 0.0001) and achieved day-1 mobility (34% vs 58%; p < 0.0001) than the cognitively healthy group. A higher proportion of the cognitively impaired group had delayed pain management (>30 mins of presentation: 26% vs 20%; p < 0.0001), were malnourished (27% vs 15%; p < 0.0001), had delirium (44% vs 13%; p < 0.0001) and developed a new pressure injury (4% vs 3%; p < 0.0001) than the cognitively healthy group. Fewer of the cognitively impaired group received rehabilitation (35% vs 64%; p < 0.0001), particularly patients from RACFs (16% vs 39%; p < 0.0001) and were prescribed bone protection medication on discharge (24% vs 27%; p < 0.0001). Significantly more of the cognitively impaired group had a new transfer to residential care (46% vs 11% from private residence; p < 0.0001) and died at 30-days (7% vs 3% from private residence; 15% vs 10% from RACF; both p < 0.0001). In multivariable models adjusting for covariates with facility as the random effect, the cognitively impaired group had a greater odds of being malnourished, not achieving day-1 walking, having delirium in the week after surgery, dying within 30 days, and in those from private residences, having a new transfer to a residential care facility than the cognitively healthy group. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified several aspects of care that could be improved for patients with cognitive impairment - management of pain, mobility, nutrition and bone health, as well as delirium assessment, prevention and management strategies and access to rehabilitation. Further research is needed to determine whether improvements in care will reduce hospital complications and improve outcomes for people with dementia after hip fracture.

Effect of cognitive training on cognitive function in community-dwelling older people with mild-to-moderate dementia: A single-blind randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this assessor-blinded, randomised controlled trial was to determine the effect of computerised cognitive training (CT) on executive function, processing speed and working memory in 61 people with mild-to-moderate dementia. METHODS: The primary outcomes were forward Digit Span and Trail Making Tests (TMT) at the completion of the 6-month intervention. Secondary outcomes included cognitive and physical performance, rate of falls, participant and caregiver's quality of life and usability and adherence to the CT program. The study was registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12617000364370). RESULTS: Intervention group (n = 31) participants averaged 81 min of CT per week, and system usability scores were acceptable (participants: 68.8 ± 22.1; caregivers: 79.4 ± 23.5). There were no statistically significant differences in cognitive or physical performance outcomes between the intervention and control groups at 6- or 12-months (between-group differences [95% CI] for primary outcomes at 6-months: Forward Digit Span -0.3 [-0.8, 0.3]; TMT-A 2.7 s [-14.1, 19.5]; TMT-B -17.1 s [-79.3, 45.2]). At the 12-month follow-up reassessment, the intervention group reported significantly more depressive symptoms and had lower caregiver-rated participant quality of life and higher caregiver quality of life compared to control. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed no benefit of the CT program on working memory, processing speed and executive function. Future studies are required to better understand how CT can be used to improve cognitive and physical functioning in older people with mild-moderate dementia.

Improving hip fracture care: A five-year review of the early contributors to the Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends (2016-2020) in hip fracture care in Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) hospitals that started providing patient-level data to the ANZ Hip Fracture Registry (ANZHFR) on/before 1 January 2016 (early contributors). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of early contributor hospitals (n = 24) to the ANZHFR. The study cohort included patients aged ≥50 years admitted with a low trauma hip fracture between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020 (n = 26,937). Annual performance against 11 quality indicators and 30- and 365-day mortality were examined. RESULTS: Compared to 2016/2017, year-on-year improvements were demonstrated for preoperative cognitive assessment (2020: OR 3.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 3.29-3.87) and nerve block use prior to surgery (2020: OR 4.62, 95% CI 4.17-5.11). Less consistent improvements over time from 2016/2017 were demonstrated for emergency department (ED) stay of <4 h (2017; 2020), pain assessment ≤30 min of ED presentation (2020), surgery ≤48 h (2020) and bone protection medication prescribed on discharge (2017-2020; 2020 OR 2.22, 95% CI 2.03-2.42). The odds of sustaining a hospital-acquired pressure injury increased in 2019-2020 compared to 2016. The odds of receiving an orthogeriatric model of care and being offered the opportunity to mobilise on Day 1 following surgery fluctuated. There was a reduction in 365-day mortality in 2020 compared to 2016 (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-0.98), whereas 30-day mortality did not change. CONCLUSIONS: Several quality indicators improved over time in early contributor hospitals. Indicators that did not improve may be targets for future care improvement activities, including considering incentivised hip fracture care, which has previously been shown to improve care/outcomes. COVID-19 and reporting practices may have impacted the study findings.

Defining exceptional cognition in older adults: A systematic review of cognitive super-ageing.

OBJECTIVE: A consistent approach to defining cognitive super-ageing is needed to increase the value of research insights that may be gained from studying this population including ageing well and preventing and treating neurodegenerative conditions. This review aims to evaluate the existing definitions of 'super-ageing' with a focus on cognition. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted across PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, PsycINFO and Google Scholar from inception to 24 July 2023. RESULTS: Of 44 English language studies that defined super-ageing from a cognitive perspective in older adults (60-97 years), most (n = 33) were based on preserved verbal episodic memory performance comparable to that of younger adult in age range 16-65 years. Eleven studies defined super-agers as the top cognitive performers for their age group based upon standard deviations or percentiles above the population mean. Only nine studies included longitudinal cognitive performance in their definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Equivalent cognitive abilities to younger adults, exceptional cognition for age and a lack of cognitive deterioration over time are all meaningful constructs and may provide different insights into cognitive ageing. Using these criteria in combination or individually to define super-agers, with a clear rationale for which elements have been selected, could be fit for purpose depending on the research question. However, major discrepancies including the age range of super-agers and comparator groups and the choice of cognitive domains assessed should be addressed to reach some consensus in the field.

Frequency of cognitive "super-aging" in three Australian samples using different diagnostic criteria.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the frequency of exceptional cognition (cognitive super-aging) in Australian older adults using different published definitions, agreement between definitions, and the relationship of super-aging status with function, brain imaging markers, and incident dementia. DESIGN: Three longitudinal cohort studies. SETTING: Participants recruited from the electoral roll, Australian Twins Registry, and community advertisements. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults (aged 65-106) without dementia from the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study (n = 1037; median age 78), Older Australian Twins Study (n = 361; median age 68), and Sydney Centenarian Study (n = 217; median age 97). MEASUREMENTS: Frequency of super-aging was assessed using nine super-aging definitions based on performance on neuropsychological testing. Levels of agreement between definitions were calculated, and associations between super-aging status for each definition and functioning (Bayer ADL score), structural brain imaging measures, and incident dementia were explored. RESULTS: Frequency of super-aging varied between 2.9 and 43.4 percent with more stringent definitions associated with lower frequency. Agreement between different criteria varied from poor (K = 0.04, AC1 = .24) to very good (K = 0.83, AC1 = .91) with better agreement between definitions using similar tests and cutoffs. Super-aging was associated with better functional performance (4.7-11%) and lower rates of incident dementia (hazard ratios 0.08-0.48) for most definitions. Super-aging status was associated with a lower burden of white matter hyperintensities (3.8-33.2%) for all definitions. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of super-aging is strongly affected by the demographic and neuropsychological testing parameters used. Greater consistency in defining super-aging would enable better characterization of this exceptional minority.

Time to interval cholecystectomy and associated outcomes in a population aged 50 and above with mild gallstone pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Cholecystectomy on index admission for mild gallstone pancreatitis (GSP) is recommended, although not always feasible. This study examined rates and outcomes of people aged ≥ 50 years who underwent interval (delayed) cholecystectomy at increasing time points. METHODS: Hospitalisation and death data were linked for individuals aged ≥ 50 years admitted to hospital in New South Wales, Australia with mild GSP between 2008-2018. Primary outcome was interval cholecystectomy timing. Secondary outcomes included mortality, emergency readmission for gallstone-related disease (GSRD) (28 and 180-day), and length of stay (LOS) (index admission and total six-month GSRD). RESULTS: 3,003 patients underwent interval cholecystectomy: 861 (28.6%) at 1-30, 1,221 (40.7%) at 31-90 and 921 (30.7%) at 91-365 days from index admission. There was no difference in 365-day mortality between groups. Longer delay to cholecystectomy was associated with increased 180-day emergency GSRD readmission (17.5% vs 15.8% vs 19.9%, p < 0.001) and total six-month LOS (5.9 vs 8.4 vs 8.3, p < 0.001). Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) was increasingly required with cholecystectomy delay (14.5% vs 16.9% vs 20.4%, p < 0.001), as were open cholecystectomy procedures (4.8% vs 7.6% vs 11.3%, p < 0.001). Extended delay was associated with patients of lower socioeconomic status, regional/rural backgrounds or who presented to a low volume or non-tertiary hospital (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Delay to interval cholecystectomy results in increased rates of emergency readmission, overall LOS, risks of conversion to open surgery and need for ERCP. Index admission cholecystectomy is still recommended, however when not possible, interval cholecystectomy should be performed within 30 days to minimise patient risk and healthcare burden.

Perioperative interventions to improve early mobilisation and physical function after hip fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Perioperative interventions could enhance early mobilisation and physical function after hip fracture surgery. OBJECTIVE: Determine the effectiveness of perioperative interventions on early mobilisation and physical function after hip fracture. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science were searched from January 2000 to March 2022. English language experimental and quasi-experimental studies were included if patients were hospitalised for a fractured proximal femur with a mean age 65 years or older and reported measures of early mobilisation and physical function during the acute hospital admission. Data were pooled using a random effect meta-analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-eight studies were included from 1,327 citations. Studies were conducted in 26 countries on 8,192 participants with a mean age of 80 years. Pathways and models of care may provide a small increase in early mobilisation (standardised mean difference [SMD]: 0.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-0.39, I2 = 73%) and physical function (SMD: 0.07, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.15, I2 = 0%) and transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation analgesia may provide a moderate improvement in function (SMD: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.24-1.05, I2 = 96%). The benefit of pre-operative mobilisation, multidisciplinary rehabilitation, recumbent cycling and clinical supervision on mobilisation and function remains uncertain. Evidence of no effect on mobilisation or function was identified for pre-emptive analgesia, intraoperative periarticular injections, continuous postoperative epidural infusion analgesia, occupational therapy training or nutritional supplements. CONCLUSIONS: Perioperative interventions may improve early mobilisation and physical function after hip fracture surgery. Future studies are needed to model the causal mechanisms of perioperative interventions on mobilisation and function after hip fracture.

The impact of fixation type for intertrochanteric femoral fracture on patient survival.

BACKGROUND: Intramedullary (IM) nail fixation for intertrochanteric fractures is potentially associated with improved postoperative function but may have an increased mortality risk compared to sliding hip screw (SHS) fixation. This study investigated postoperative mortality risk between surgical fixation type for intertrochanteric fracture in patients aged 50 years and older using linked data from the Australian Hip Fracture Registry and National Death Index. METHODS: Descriptive analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves performed unadjusted analysis of mortality and fixation type (short IM nail, long IM nail and SHS). Multilevel logistic regression (AMLR) and Cox modelling (CM) performed adjusted analysis of fixation type and mortality following surgery. Instrumental variable analysis (IVA) was conducted to minimize the effect of unknown confounders. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality was 7.1% for short IM, 7.8% for long IM and 7.8% for SHS fixation (P = 0.2). The AMLR demonstrated significant increase in 30-day mortality risk for long IM nail compared to short IM nail (OR = 1.2, 95% CI = 1.0-1.4, P < 0.05) but no significant difference for SHS fixation (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.9-1.3, P = 0.5). No significant difference between groups and postoperative mortality was demonstrated by the CM at 30-days nor 1-year nor by the IVA at 30-days. CONCLUSION: Despite a significant increase in 30-day mortality risk for long IM nail compared to short IM nail fixation in the adjusted analysis, this was not demonstrated in the CM nor IVA indicating the role of confounders influencing the regression findings. There was no significant association in 1-year mortality between long IM nail and SHS compared to short IM nail fixation.

Associations between psychotropic and anti-dementia medication use and falls in community-dwelling older adults with cognitive impairment.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence for effective fall prevention strategies is limited for people with cognitive impairment. Understanding what factors contribute to fall risk identifies potential intervention strategies. We aimed to determine if psychotropic and anti-dementia medication use are associated with falls in community-dwelling older people with mild-moderate cognitive impairment and dementia. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of an RCT (i-FOCIS). PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: 309 community-dwelling people with mild to moderate cognitive impairment or dementia from Sydney, Australia. METHODS: Demographic information, medical history, and medication use were collected at baseline and participants were followed up for 1-year for falls using monthly calendars and ancillary telephone falls. RESULTS: Psychotropic medication use was associated with an increased rate of falls (IRR 1.41, 95%CI 1.03, 1.93) and slower gait speed, poor balance and reduced lower limb function when adjusting for age, sex, education and cognition, as well as RCT group allocation when examining prospective falls. Antidepressants use increased the rate of falls in a similarly adjusted model (IRR 1.54, 95%CI 1.10, 2.15), but when additionally adjusting for depressive symptoms, antidepressant use was no longer significantly associated with falls while depressive symptoms was. Anti-dementia medication use was not associated with rate of falls. CONCLUSIONS: Psychotropic medication use increases fall risk, and anti-dementia medication does not reduce fall risk in older adults with cognitive impairment. Effective management of depressive symptoms, potentially with non-pharmacological approaches, is needed to prevent falls in this population. Research is also required to ascertain the risks/benefits of withdrawing psychotropic medications, particularly in relation to depressive symptoms.

An Australian aged care home for people subject to homelessness: health, wellbeing and cost-benefit.

BACKGROUND: Older people subject to homelessness face many challenges including poor health status, geriatric syndromes, and depression, coupled with barriers in accessing health and aged care services. Many are in need of formal aged care at a younger age than the general population, yet, in Australia, specialised aged-care services to support this vulnerable cohort are limited. METHODS: This study was an evaluation of a new purpose-built aged care home for people with high care needs and who are homeless or at risk of homelessness. Over the first 12 months post-admission, the study examined: (1) changes in residents' physical, mental, psychological and social health, and (2) the costs incurred by the study cohort, including any cost benefit derived. RESULTS: Thirty-five residents enrolled in the study between March 2020 - April 2021. At admission, almost half of residents were within the range for dementia, the majority were frail, at high risk for falls, and had scores indicative of depression. Over time, linear mixed-effect models showed significant improvement in personal wellbeing scores, with clinically significant improvements in overall health related quality of life. Levels of physical functional independence, frailty, and global cognition were stable, but cognitive functional ability declined over time. Comparison of 12 month pre- and post- admission cost utility data for a smaller cohort (n = 13) for whom complete data were available, suggested an average per resident saving of approximately AU$32,000, while the QALY indicators remained stable post-admission. CONCLUSION: While this was a small study with no control group, these preliminary positive outcomes add to the growing body of evidence that supports the need for dedicated services to support older people subject to homelessness.

The impact of cement fixation on early mortality in arthroplasty for hip fracture.

Cementing in arthroplasty for hip fracture is associated with improved postoperative function, but may have an increased risk of early mortality compared to uncemented fixation. Quantifying this mortality risk is important in providing safe patient care. This study investigated the association between cement use in arthroplasty and mortality at 30 days and one year in patients aged 50 years and over with hip fracture. This retrospective cohort study used linked data from the Australian Hip Fracture Registry and the National Death Index. Descriptive analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves tested the unadjusted association of mortality between cemented and uncemented procedures. Multilevel logistic regression, adjusted for covariates, tested the association between cement use and 30-day mortality following arthroplasty. Given the known institutional variation in preference for cemented fixation, an instrumental variable analysis was also performed to minimize the effect of unknown confounders. Adjusted Cox modelling analyzed the association between cement use and mortality at 30 days and one year following surgery. The 30-day mortality was 6.9% for cemented and 4.9% for uncemented groups (p = 0.003). Cement use was significantly associated with 30-day mortality in the Kaplan-Meier survival curve (p = 0.003). After adjusting for covariates, no significant association between cement use and 30-day mortality was shown in the adjusted multilevel logistic regression (odd rati0 (OR) 1.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9 to 1.5; p = 0.366), or in the instrumental variable analysis (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.0, p=0.524). There was no significant between-group difference in mortality within 30days (hazard ratio (HR) 0.9, 95% CI 0.7to 1.1; p = 0.355) or one year (HR 0.9 95% CI 0.8 to 1.1; p = 0.328) in the Cox modelling. No statistically significant difference in patient mortality with cement use in arthroplasty was demonstrated in this population, once adjusted for covariates. This study concludes that cementing in arthroplasty for hip fracture is a safe means of surgical fixation.

Fall-related health service use in Stepping On programme participants and matched controls: a non-randomised observational trial within the 45 and Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Falls and fall-related health service use among older adults continue to increase. The New South Wales Health Department, Australia, is delivering the Stepping On fall prevention programme at scale. We compared fall-related health service use in Stepping On participants and matched controls. METHODS: A non-randomised observational trial was undertaken using 45 and Up Study data. 45 and Up Study participants who did and did not participate in Stepping On were extracted in a 1:4 ratio. Rates of fall-related health service use from linked routinely collected data were compared between participants and controls over time using multilevel Poisson regression models with adjustment for the minimally sufficient set of confounders identified from a directed acyclic graph. RESULTS: Data from 1,452 Stepping On participants and 5,799 controls were analysed. Health service use increased over time and was greater in Stepping On participants (rate ratios (RRs) 1.47-1.82) with a spike in use in the 6 months prior to programme participation. Significant interactions indicated differential patterns of health service use in participants and controls: stratified analyses revealed less fall-related health service use in participants post-programme compared to pre-programme (RRs 0.32-0.48), but no change in controls' health service use (RRs 1.00-1.25). Gender was identified to be a significant effect modifier for health service use (P < 0.05 for interaction). DISCUSSION: Stepping On appeared to mitigate participants' rising fall-related health service use. Best practice methods were used to maximise this study's validity, but cautious interpretation of results is required given its non-randomised nature.

Fall prevention in older people: past, present and future.

Over the past 50 years we have transitioned from accepting falls as an inevitable consequence of ageing to something that can and should be prevented. Numerous studies have elucidated the contributors to falls and how to assess a person's risk of falling. There are many effective approaches to preventing falls in older people including those with cognitive and physical impairments. Exercise is the most tried and tested approach with good evidence that moderate to high intensity balance training is an effective fall prevention strategy. Other successful single modality interventions include enhanced podiatry, home safety interventions, expedited cataract extraction, cardiac pacing for people with carotid sinus hypersensitivity and vitamin D supplementation in people living in care homes. Multiple interventions (everyone receives the same intervention package) and multifactorial interventions (interventions tailored to identified risk factors) are effective particularly in high-risk populations. In more recent years we have seen the emergence of new technologies such as devices and software programs that can offer low-cost interventions which may be more sustainable than our traditional time- and resource-limited approach to prevention. There is still more to be done and a translational focus is needed to ensure that effective interventions are scaled up and delivered to more people while at the same time maximising adherence and maintaining the fidelity of the interventions.

Exploring barriers to, and enablers of, evidence-informed hip fracture care in five low- middle-income countries: China, India, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Globally, populations are ageing and the estimated number of hip fractures will increase from 1.7 million in 1990 to more than 6 million in 2050. The greatest increase in hip fractures is predicted in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), largely in the Asia-Pacific region where direct costs are expected to exceed $US15 billion by 2050. The aims of this qualitative study are to identify barriers to, and enablers of, evidence-informed hip fracture care in LMICs, and to determine if the Blue Book standards, developed by the British Orthopaedic Association and British Geriatrics Society to facilitate evidence-informed care of patients with fragility fractures, are applicable to these settings. This study utilized semi-structured interviews with clinical and administrative hospital staff to explore current hip fracture care in LMICs. Transcribed interviews were imported into NVivo 12 and analysed thematically. Interviews were conducted with 35 participants from 11 hospitals in 5 countries. We identified five themes-costs of care and the capacity of patients to pay, timely hospital presentation, competing demands on limited resources, delegation and defined responsibility and utilization of available data-and within each theme, barriers and enablers were distinguished. We found a mismatch between patient needs and provision of recommended hip fracture care, which in LMICs must commence at the time of injury. This study describes clinician and administrator perspectives of the barriers to, and enablers of, high-quality hip fracture care in LMICs; results indicate that initiatives to overcome barriers (in particular, delays to definitive treatment) are required. While the Blue Book offers a starting point for clinicians and administrators looking to provide high-quality hip fracture care to older people in LMICs, locally developed interventions are likely to provide the most successful solutions to improving hip fracture care.

Economic evaluation of the e-Health StandingTall balance exercise programme for fall prevention in people aged 70 years and over.

BACKGROUND: globally, falls and fall-related injuries are the leading cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in older people. In our ageing society healthcare costs are increasing, therefore programmes that reduce falls and are considered value for money are needed. OBJECTIVE: to complete an economic evaluation of an e-Health balance exercise programme that reduced falls and injurious falls in community-dwelling older people compared to usual care from a health and community-care funder perspective. DESIGN: a within-trial economic evaluation of an assessor-blinded randomised controlled trial with 2 years of follow-up. SETTING: StandingTall was delivered via tablet-computer at home to older community-dwelling people in Sydney, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: five hundred and three individuals aged 70+ years who were independent in activities of daily living, without cognitive impairment, progressive neurological disease or any other unstable or acute medical condition precluding exercise. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: cost-effectiveness was measured as the incremental cost per fall and per injurious fall prevented. Cost-utility was measured as the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. MAIN RESULTS: the total average cost per patient for programme delivery and care resource cost was $8,321 (standard deviation [SD] 18,958) for intervention participants and $6,829 (SD 15,019) for control participants. The incremental cost per fall prevented was $4,785 and per injurious fall prevented was $6,585. The incremental cost per QALY gained was $58,039 (EQ5D-5L) and $110,698 (AQoL-6D). CONCLUSION: this evaluation found that StandingTall has the potential to be cost-effective in specific subpopulations of older people, but not necessarily the whole older population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12615000138583.

Epidemiology of falls in 25 Australian residential aged care facilities: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Falls are frequent among older adults and have significant health and economic consequences. There have been few studies on the epidemiology of falls in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of falls in RACFs using longitudinal routinely collected incident data over 5 years (July 2014-December 2019). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study is conducted using fall incident data from 25 RACFs in Sydney, NSW, Australia. Incidents relating to a population of 6163 aged care residents aged ≥65 years were included. Outcome measures were incidents of all falls, injurious falls and falls requiring hospitalization. The risk-adjusted incidence rate (IR) for each outcome indicator for each of the 25 facilities was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 27 878 falls were reported over 3 906 772 resident days (a crude rate of 7.14 incidents per 1000 resident days; 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.81-7.48). Of these, 10 365 (37.2%) were injurious and 2733 (9.8%) required hospitalization. The crude IRs were 2.65 incidents per 1000 resident days (95% CI 2.53-2.78) for injurious falls and 0.70 incidents per 1000 resident days (95% CI 0.66-0.74) for falls requiring hospitalization. The incidence of falls was significantly higher in respite compared to permanent residents for all falls (adjusted IR ratio (aIRR) 1.33; 95% CI 1.18-1.51) and injurious falls (aIRR 1.30; 95% CI 1.14-1.48) and for men compared to women for all outcomes (all falls aIRR 1.69; 95% CI 1.54-1.86; injurious falls aIRR 1.87; 95% CI 1.71-2.04 and falls requiring hospitalization aIRR 1.29; 95% CI 1.12-1.48). The risk-adjusted IRs per 1000 resident days between facilities varied substantially (all falls 0.57-12.93 falls; injurious falls 0.25-4.47 and falls requiring hospitalization 0.10-1.70). CONCLUSION: Falls are frequent in RACFs, often resulting in injury and hospitalization. The study provides robust and comprehensive information that may help inform future initiatives to minimize the incidence of falls in RACFs.

The use and predictive performance of the Peninsula Health Falls Risk Assessment Tool (PH-FRAT) in 25 residential aged care facilities: a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: The Peninsula Health Falls Risk Assessment Tool (PH-FRAT) is a validated and widely applied tool in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) in Australia. However, research regarding its use and predictive performance is limited. This study aimed to determine the use and performance of PH-FRAT in predicting falls in RACF residents. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using routinely-collected data from 25 RACFs in metropolitan Sydney, Australia from Jul 2014-Dec 2019. A total of 5888 residents aged ≥65 years who were assessed at least once using the PH-FRAT were included in the study. The PH-FRAT risk score ranges from 5 to 20 with a score > 14 indicating fallers and ≤ 14 non-fallers. The predictive performance of PH-FRAT was determined using metrics including area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, sensitivityEvent Rate(ER) and specificityER. RESULTS: A total of 27,696 falls were reported over 3,689,561 resident days (a crude incident rate of 7.5 falls /1000 resident days). A total of 38,931 PH-FRAT assessments were conducted with a median of 4 assessments per resident, a median of 43.8 days between assessments, and an overall median fall risk score of 14. Residents with multiple assessments had increased risk scores over time. The baseline PH-FRAT demonstrated a low AUROC of 0.57, sensitivity of 26.0% (sensitivityER 33.6%) and specificity of 88.8% (specificityER 82.0%). The follow-up PH-FRAT assessments increased sensitivityER values although the specificityER decreased. The performance of PH-FRAT improved using a lower risk score cut-off of 10 with AUROC of 0.61, sensitivity of 67.5% (sensitivityER 74.4%) and specificity of 55.2% (specificityER 45.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Although PH-FRAT is frequently used in RACFs, it demonstrated poor predictive performance raising concerns about its value. Introducing a lower PH-FRAT cut-off score of 10 marginally enhanced its predictive performance. Future research should focus on understanding the feasibility and accuracy of dynamic fall risk predictive tools, which may serve to better identify residents at risk of falls.

The use of predictive fall models for older adults receiving aged care, using routinely collected electronic health record data: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Falls in older adults remain a pressing health concern. With advancements in data analytics and increasing uptake of electronic health records, developing comprehensive predictive models for fall risk is now possible. We aimed to systematically identify studies involving the development and implementation of predictive falls models which used routinely collected electronic health record data in home-based, community and residential aged care settings. METHODS: A systematic search of entries in Cochrane Library, CINAHL, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science was conducted in July 2020 using search terms relevant to aged care, prediction, and falls. Selection criteria included English-language studies, published in peer-reviewed journals, had an outcome of falls, and involved fall risk modelling using routinely collected electronic health record data. Screening, data extraction and quality appraisal using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program for Clinical Prediction Rule Studies were conducted. Study content was synthesised and reported narratively. RESULTS: From 7,329 unique entries, four relevant studies were identified. All predictive models were built using different statistical techniques. Predictors across seven categories were used: demographics, assessments of care, fall history, medication use, health conditions, physical abilities, and environmental factors. Only one of the four studies had been validated externally. Three studies reported on the performance of the models. CONCLUSIONS: Adopting predictive modelling in aged care services for adverse events, such as falls, is in its infancy. The increased availability of electronic health record data and the potential of predictive modelling to document fall risk and inform appropriate interventions is making use of such models achievable. Having a dynamic prediction model that reflects the changing status of an aged care client is key to this moving forward for fall prevention interventions.