Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North america.

BACKGROUND: Anal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV (PWH). Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among PWH in the United States (US) and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve in future years. METHODS: Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends in the US, Canada, and different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with persons without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among US PWH. RESULTS: During 2001-2016, in the US, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2%/year (95%CI=-4.4% to -0.1%), particularly in the Western region (-3.8%/year [95%CI=-6.5% to -0.9%]. In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, over four-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared to the Northeast among men who have sex with men [MSM] with HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 count and was elevated among those with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among US PWH is expected to decrease in future years (through 2035), but >70% of cases will continue to occur in MSM with HIV and people with AIDS. CONCLUSION: Geographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. MSM with HIV and PWH with AIDS will continue to bear most anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Lower endoscopy, early-onset, and average-onset colon cancer among Medicaid beneficiaries with and without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest a lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and lower or similar CRC screening among people with HIV (PWH) compared with the general population. We evaluated the incidence of lower endoscopy and average-onset (diagnosed at ≥50) and early-onset (diagnosed at <50) colon cancer by HIV status among Medicaid beneficiares with comparable sociodemographic factors and access to care. METHODS: We obtained Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) data from 2001 to 2015 for 14 states. We included 41 727 243 and 42 062 552 unique individuals with at least 7 months of continuous eligibility for the endoscopy and colon cancer analysis, respectively. HIV and colon cancer diagnoses and endoscopy procedures were identified from inpatient and other nondrug claims. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess endoscopy and colon cancer incidence, controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, calendar year and state of enrollment, and comorbidities conditions. RESULTS: Endoscopy and colon cancer incidence increased with age in both groups. Compared with beneficiaries without HIV, PWH had an increased hazard of endoscopy; this association was strongest among those 18-39 years [hazard ratio: 1.85, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.77-1.92] and attenuated with age. PWH 18-39 years also had increased hazard of early-onset colon cancer (hazard ratio: 1.66, 95% CI:1.05-2.62); this association was attenuated after comorbidity adjustment. Hazard ratios were null among all beneficiaries less than 50 years of age. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer compared with those without HIV (hazard ratio: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.94). CONCLUSION: PWH had a higher hazard of endoscopy, particularly at younger ages. PWH had a lower hazard of average-onset colon cancer. Early-onset colon cancer was higher among the youngest PWH but not associated with HIV overall.

Hepatitis B care cascade among people with HIV/HBV coinfection in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, 2012-2016.

A care cascade is a critical tool for evaluating delivery of care for chronic infections across sequential stages, starting with diagnosis and ending with viral suppression. However, there have been few data describing the hepatitis B virus (HBV) care cascade among people living with HIV infection who have HBV coinfection. We conducted a cross-sectional study among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection receiving care between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2016 within 13 United States and Canadian clinical cohorts contributing data to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). We evaluated each of the steps in this cascade, including: 1) laboratory-confirmed HBV infection, 2) tenofovir-based or entecavir-based HBV therapy prescribed, 3) HBV DNA measured during treatment, and 4) viral suppression achieved via undetectable HBV DNA. Among 3,953 persons with laboratory-confirmed HBV (median age, 50 years; 6.5% female; 43.8% were Black; 7.1% were Hispanic), 3,592 (90.9%; 95% confidence interval, 90.0-91.8%) were prescribed tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy or entecavir along with their antiretroviral therapy regimen, 2,281 (57.7%; 95% confidence interval, 56.2-59.2%) had HBV DNA measured while on therapy, and 1,624 (41.1%; 95% confidence interval, 39.5-42.6) achieved an undetectable HBV DNA during HBV treatment. Our study identified significant gaps in measurement of HBV DNA and suppression of HBV viremia among people living with HIV and HBV coinfection in the United States and Canada. Periodic evaluation of the HBV care cascade among persons with HIV/HBV will be critical to monitoring success in completion of each step.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Tenofovir Exposure, and the Risk of Poor Coronavirus Disease 19 Outcomes: Real-World Analysis From 6 United States Cohorts Before Vaccine Rollout.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) may be at increased risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined HIV status and COVID-19 severity, and whether tenofovir, used by PWH for HIV treatment and people without HIV (PWoH) for HIV prevention, was associated with protection. METHODS: Within 6 cohorts of PWH and PWoH in the United States, we compared the 90-day risk of any hospitalization, COVID-19 hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation or death by HIV status and by prior exposure to tenofovir, among those with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection between 1 March and 30 November 2020. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated by targeted maximum likelihood estimation, with adjustment for demographics, cohort, smoking, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, calendar period of first infection, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels (in PWH only). RESULTS: Among PWH (n = 1785), 15% were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 5% received mechanical ventilation or died, compared with 6% and 2%, respectively, for PWoH (n = 189 351). Outcome prevalence was lower for PWH and PWoH with prior tenofovir use. In adjusted analyses, PWH were at increased risk compared with PWoH for any hospitalization (aRR, 1.31 [95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.44]), COVID-19 hospitalizations (1.29 [1.15-1.45]), and mechanical ventilation or death (1.51 [1.19-1.92]). Prior tenofovir use was associated with reduced hospitalizations among PWH (aRR, 0.85 [95% confidence interval, .73-.99]) and PWoH (0.71 [.62-.81]). CONCLUSIONS: Before COVID-19 vaccine availability, PWH were at greater risk for severe outcomes than PWoH. Tenofovir was associated with a significant reduction in clinical events for both PWH and PWoH.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Initial Prescription of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People With HIV in the US.

Importance: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes. Objectives: To estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Exposures: Combined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens. Results: Of 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, -1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, -1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, -6% [95% CI, -8% to -4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

The changing prevalence of anemia and risk factors in people with HIV in North America who have initiated ART, 2007-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the prevalence of anemia and risk factors between 2007 and 2017 for moderate/severe anemia among people with HIV (PWH) in North America who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Observational study of participants in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). METHODS: We estimated the annual prevalence between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2017 of mild (11.0-12.9 g/dl men, 11.0-11.9 g/dl women), moderate (8.0-10.9 g/dl regardless of sex) and severe (<8.0 g/dl regardless of sex) anemia. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals ([-]) comparing risk factors for moderate/severe vs. no/mild anemia between 2007 and 2017. RESULTS: Among 73 898 PWH we observed 366 755 hemoglobin measurements following ART initiation, 37 301 (50%) had one or more measures of anemia during follow-up (mild = 17 743 [24%]; moderate = 13 383[18%]; severe = 6175 [8%]). Moderate/severe anemia was more prevalent among women, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic PWH (vs. non-Hispanic white), those with underweight body mass index (<18.5 kg/m2) and with comorbidities and coinfections. Older age had increased prevalence of moderate/severe anemia among males and decreased prevalence among females. Prevalence of moderate/severe anemia was greater among those with lower CD4+ cell count (≤200 cells/µl) [aPR = 2.11 (2.06-2.17)] unsuppressed HIV viral load (>200 copies/ml) [aPR = 1.26 (1.23-1.29)] and within the first 6 months of ART initiation (vs. >1 year of ART) [aPR = 1.66 (1.61-1.72)]. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of anemia among PWH is reduced after ART initiation but remains high. Risk factors differ by sex and include comorbidities and HIV disease severity. The persistent, substantial prevalence of anemia among PWH merits further investigation, targeted screening, and clinical interventions.

Analysis of Severe Illness After Postvaccination COVID-19 Breakthrough Among Adults With and Without HIV in the US.

Importance: Understanding the severity of postvaccination SARS-CoV-2 (ie, COVID-19) breakthrough illness among people with HIV (PWH) can inform vaccine guidelines and risk-reduction recommendations. Objective: To estimate the rate and risk of severe breakthrough illness among vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) who experience a breakthrough infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, the Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET-II) collaboration included adults (aged ≥18 years) with HIV who were receiving care and were fully vaccinated by June 30, 2021, along with PWoH matched according to date fully vaccinated, age group, race, ethnicity, and sex from 4 US integrated health systems and academic centers. Those with postvaccination COVID-19 breakthrough before December 31, 2021, were eligible. Exposures: HIV infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness, defined as hospitalization within 28 days after a breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection with a primary or secondary COVID-19 discharge diagnosis. Discrete time proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs of severe breakthrough illness within 28 days of breakthrough COVID-19 by HIV status adjusting for demographic variables, COVID-19 vaccine type, and clinical factors. The proportion of patients who received mechanical ventilation or died was compared by HIV status. Results: Among 3649 patients with breakthrough COVID-19 (1241 PWH and 2408 PWoH), most were aged 55 years or older (2182 patients [59.8%]) and male (3244 patients [88.9%]). The cumulative incidence of severe illness in the first 28 days was low and comparable between PWoH and PWH (7.3% vs 6.7%; risk difference, -0.67%; 95% CI, -2.58% to 1.23%). The risk of severe breakthrough illness was 59% higher in PWH with CD4 cell counts less than 350 cells/µL compared with PWoH (aHR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.46; P = .049). In multivariable analyses among PWH, being female, older, having a cancer diagnosis, and lower CD4 cell count were associated with increased risk of severe breakthrough illness, whereas previous COVID-19 was associated with reduced risk. Among 249 hospitalized patients, 24 (9.6%) were mechanically ventilated and 20 (8.0%) died, with no difference by HIV status. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the risk of severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness within 28 days of a breakthrough infection was low among vaccinated PWH and PWoH. PWH with moderate or severe immune suppression had a higher risk of severe breakthrough infection and should be included in groups prioritized for additional vaccine doses and risk-reduction strategies.

Statins Utilization in Adults With HIV: The Treatment Gap and Predictors of Statin Initiation.

BACKGROUND: We characterized trends in statin eligibility and subsequent statin initiation among people with HIV (PWH) from 2001 to 2017 and identified predictors of statin initiation between 2014 and 2017. SETTING: PWH participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) enrolled in 12 US cohorts collecting data on statin eligibility criteria/prescriptions from 2001 to 2017. METHODS: We determined the annual proportion eligible for statins, initiating statins, and median waiting time (from statin eligibility to initiation). Eligibility was defined using ATP III guidelines (2001-2013) and ACC/AHA guidelines (2014-2017). We assessed initiation predictors in 2014-2017 among statin-eligible PWH using Poisson regression, estimating adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: Among 16,409 PWH, 7386 (45%) met statin eligibility criteria per guidelines (2001-2017). From 2001 to 2013, statin eligibility ranged from 22% to 25%. Initiation increased from 13% to 45%. In 2014, 51% were statin-eligible, among whom 25% initiated statins, which increased to 32% by 2017. Median waiting time to initiation among those we observed declined over time. Per 10-year increase in age, initiation increased 46% (aPR 1.46, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.67). Per 1-year increase in calendar year from 2014 to 2017, there was a 41% increase in the likelihood of statin initiation (aPR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.58). CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial statin treatment gap, amplified by the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines. Measures are warranted to clarify reasons we observe this gap, and if necessary, increase statin use consistent with guidelines including efforts to help providers identify appropriate candidates.

Analysis of Postvaccination Breakthrough COVID-19 Infections Among Adults With HIV in the United States.

Importance: Recommendations for additional doses of COVID-19 vaccines for people with HIV (PWH) are restricted to those with advanced disease or unsuppressed HIV viral load. Understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection risk after vaccination among PWH is essential for informing vaccination guidelines. Objective: To estimate the rate and risk of breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET)-II (of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design [NA-ACCORD], which is part of the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS [IeDEA]), collaboration of 4 prospective, electronic health record-based cohorts from integrated health systems and academic health centers. Adult PWH who were fully vaccinated prior to June 30, 2021, were matched with PWoH on date of full vaccination, age, race and ethnicity, and sex and followed up through December 31, 2021. Exposures: HIV infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: COVID-19 breakthrough infections, defined as laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 diagnosis after a patient was fully vaccinated. Results: Among 113 994 patients (33 029 PWH and 80 965 PWoH), most were 55 years or older (80 017 [70%]) and male (104 967 [92%]); 47 098 (41%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 43 218 (38%) were non-Hispanic White. The rate of breakthrough infections was higher in PWH vs PWoH (55 [95% CI, 52-58] cases per 1000 person-years vs 43 [95% CI, 42-45] cases per 1000 person-years). Cumulative incidence of breakthroughs 9 months after full vaccination was low (3.8% [95% CI, 3.7%-3.9%]), albeit higher in PWH vs PWoH (4.4% vs 3.5%; log-rank P < .001; risk difference, 0.9% [95% CI, 0.6%-1.2%]) and within each vaccine type. Breakthrough infection risk was 28% higher in PWH vs PWoH (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.19-1.37]). Among PWH, younger age (<45 y vs 45-54 y), history of COVID-19, and not receiving an additional dose (aHR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.58-0.88]) were associated with increased risk of breakthrough infections. There was no association of breakthrough with HIV viral load suppression, but high CD4 count (ie, ≥500 cells/mm3) was associated with fewer breakthroughs among PWH. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, COVID-19 vaccination, especially with an additional dose, was effective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating through December 31, 2021. PWH had an increased risk of breakthrough infections compared with PWoH. Expansion of recommendations for additional vaccine doses to all PWH should be considered.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Seroprevalence in Decedents Undergoing Forensic Postmortem Examination: Feasibility for Real-Time Pandemic Surveillance.

Background: Population-based seroprevalence studies offer comprehensive characterization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread, but barriers exist and marginalized populations may not be captured. We assessed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody seroprevalence among decedents in Maryland over 6 months in 2020. Methods: Data were collected on decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination in Maryland from 24 May through 30 November 2020 from whom a blood specimen could be collected. Those with available blood specimens were tested with the CoronaCHEK lateral flow antibody assay. We assessed monthly seroprevalence compared to the statewide estimated number of cases and proportion of positive test results (testing positivity). We used Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of demographic characteristics, homelessness, and manner of death with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Results: Among 1906 decedents, 305 (16%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Monthly seroprevalence increased from 11% to 22% over time and was consistently higher than state-level estimates of testing positivity. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with 2- to 3.2-fold higher seropositivity (P < .05) irrespective of sex. Deaths due to motor vehicle crash were associated with 62% increased seropositivity (aPR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.15-2.28]) vs natural manner of death. Though seroprevalence was lower in decedents of illicit drug overdose vs nonoverdose in early months, this shifted, and seroprevalence was comparable by November 2020. Conclusions: Decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination, especially those dying due to motor vehicle trauma, may be a sentinel population for COVID-19 spread in the general population and merits exploration in other states/regions.

CD4/CD8 Ratio and Cancer Risk Among Adults With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Independent of CD4 cell count, a low CD4/CD8 ratio in people with HIV (PWH) is associated with deleterious immune senescence, activation, and inflammation, which may contribute to carcinogenesis and excess cancer risk. We examined whether low CD4/CD8 ratios predicted cancer among PWH in the United States and Canada. METHODS: We examined all cancer-free PWH with 1 or more CD4/CD8 values from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design observational cohorts with validated cancer diagnoses between 1998 and 2016. We evaluated the association between time-lagged CD4/CD8 ratio and risk of specific cancers in multivariable, time-updated Cox proportional hazard models using restricted cubic spines. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, hepatitis C virus, and time-updated CD4 cell count, HIV RNA, and history of AIDS-defining illness. RESULTS: Among 83 893 PWH, there were 5628 incident cancers, including lung cancer (n = 755), Kaposi sarcoma (n = 501), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 497), and anal cancer (n = 439). The median age at cohort entry was 43 years. The overall median 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 ratio was 0.52 (interquartile range = 0.30-0.82). Compared with a 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 of 0.80, a CD4/CD8 of 0.30 was associated with increased risk of any incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.24 [95% confidence interval = 1.14 to 1.35]). The CD4/CD8 ratio was also inversely associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Kaposi sarcoma, lung cancer, anal cancer, and colorectal cancer in adjusted analyses (all 2-sided P < .05). Results were similar using 12-, 18-, and 24-month lagged CD4/CD8 values. CONCLUSIONS: A low CD4/CD8 ratio up to 24 months before cancer diagnosis was independently associated with increased cancer risk in PWH and may serve as a clinical biomarker.

The Association Between HIV Status, Estradiol, and Sex Hormone Binding Globulin Among Premenopausal Women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study.

Background: Characterizing estradiol among women with HIV may have implications for breast cancer and cardiovascular disease risk but has not been adequately explored. We quantified differences in total (E2), free (FE2) estradiol, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) by HIV and viral suppression status. Methods: Women from a substudy (2003-2006) within the Women's Interagency HIV Study (IRB approved at each participating site) were included if they reported: a period in the last six months, were not pregnant/breastfeeding, no oophorectomy, and no exogenous hormone use in the prior year. Serum was collected on days 2-4 of the menstrual cycle. We assessed differences in biomarkers at 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles by HIV and viral suppression status using weighted quantile regression. Results: Among 643 women (68% with HIV) median age was 37 years. All E2 percentiles were significantly (p < 0.05) lower in women with suppressed viral load versus women without HIV (4-10 pg/mL). The 25th and 50th percentile of E2 were 4-5 pg/mL lower in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (p < 0.05). The 25th and 50th percentile of SHBG was significantly higher in women with unsuppressed viral load compared to women without HIV (10 and 12 nmol/L, respectively). There were no consistent differences in estradiol or SHBG by suppression status. Conclusions: There were no differences in FE2 but significantly lower E2 and higher SHBG among women with HIV versus without HIV. Further research is merited in a large contemporary sample to clarify the clinical implications of these findings.

Association of the VACS Index With Hospitalization Among People With HIV in the NA-ACCORD.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) have a higher hospitalization rate than the general population. The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index at study entry well predicts hospitalization in PWH, but it is unknown if the time-updated parameter improves hospitalization prediction. We assessed the association of parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 with the 5-year risk of hospitalization. SETTING: PWH ≥30 years old with at least 12 months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use and contributing hospitalization data from 2000 to 2016 in North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) were included. Three parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 were assessed and categorized by quartile: (1) "baseline" measurement at study entry; (2) time-updated measurements; and (3) cumulative scores calculated using the trapezoidal rule. METHODS: Discrete-time proportional hazard models estimated the crude and adjusted associations (and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) of the VACS Index parameterizations and all-cause hospitalizations. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) assessed the model fit with each of the VACS Index parameters. RESULTS: Among 7289 patients, 1537 were hospitalized. Time-updated VACS Index fitted hospitalization best with a more distinct dose-response relationship [score <43: reference; score 43-55: aHR = 1.93 (95% CI: 1.66 to 2.23); score 55-68: aHR = 3.63 (95% CI: 3.12 to 4.23); score ≥68: aHR = 9.98 (95% CI: 8.52 to 11.69)] than study entry and cumulative VACS Index after adjusting for known risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Time-updated VACS Index 2.0 had the strongest association with hospitalization and best fit to the data. Health care providers should consider using it when assessing hospitalization risk among PWH.

COVID-19 infections post-vaccination by HIV status in the United States.

IMPORTANCE: Recommendations for additional doses of COVID vaccine are restricted to people with HIV who have advanced disease or unsuppressed HIV viral load. Understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection risk post-vaccination among PWH is essential for informing vaccination guidelines. OBJECTIVE: Estimate the risk of breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated people with (PWH) and without (PWoH) HIV in the US. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET)-II cohort collaboration consists of 4 longitudinal cohorts from integrated health systems and academic health centers. Each cohort identified individuals ≥18 years old, in-care, and fully vaccinated for COVID-19 through 30 June 2021. PWH were matched to PWoH on date fully vaccinated, age group, race/ethnicity, and sex at birth. Incidence rates per 1,000 person-years and cumulative incidence of breakthrough infections with 95% confidence intervals ([,]) were estimated by HIV status. Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of breakthrough infections by HIV status adjusting for demographic factors, prior COVID-19 illness, vaccine type (BNT162b2, [Pfizer], mRNA-1273 [Moderna], Jansen Ad26.COV2.S [J&J]), calendar time, and cohort. Risk factors for breakthroughs among PWH, were also investigated. EXPOSURE: HIV infection. OUTCOME: COVID-19 breakthrough infections, defined as laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 diagnosis after an individual was fully vaccinated. RESULTS: Among 109,599 individuals (31,840 PWH and 77,759 PWoH), the rate of breakthrough infections was higher in PWH versus PWoH: 44 [41, 48] vs. 31 [29, 33] per 1,000 person-years. Cumulative incidence at 210 days after date fully vaccinated was low, albeit higher in PWH versus PWoH overall (2.8% versus 2.1%, log-rank p<0.001, risk difference=0.7% [0.4%, 1.0%]) and within each vaccine type. Breakthrough infection risk was 41% higher in PWH versus PWoH (aHR=1.41 [1.28, 1.56]). Among PWH, younger age (18-24 versus 45-54), history of COVID-19 prior to fully vaccinated date, and J&J vaccination (versus Pfizer) were associated with increased risk of breakthroughs. There was no association of breakthrough with HIV viral load suppression or CD4 count among PWH. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: COVID-19 vaccination is effective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating through 30 Sept 2021. PWH have an increased risk of breakthrough infections compared to PWoH. Recommendations for additional vaccine doses should be expanded to all PWH.

The Relationship of APOE ε4, Race, and Sex on the Age of Onset and Risk of Dementia.

Objective: To investigate whether APOE ε4 genotype-an established risk factor for dementia-is associated with earlier age at diagnosis in addition to increased risk overall and in secondary analysis by race and sex. Methods: We followed up 13,782 dementia-free individuals (n = 10,137 White, n = 3,645 Black, baseline age 60-66 years) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study for up to 30 years. Dementia was operationalized using standardized algorithms incorporating longitudinal cognitive change, proxy report, and hospital or death certificate dementia codes. We used a mixture of generalized gamma distributions to simultaneously estimate time to dementia, time to dementia-free death, and the proportion of individuals with dementia, by APOE ε4 status (≥1 vs. no alleles). Results: Median age of dementia onset among APOE ε4 carriers was 81.7 (Blacks) and 83.3 years (Whites) compared with 82.6 (Blacks) and 85.7 years (Whites) in non-APOE ε4 carriers (p > 0.05 Blacks; p < 0.01 Whites). Age of dementia diagnosis did not differ by sex in ε4 carriers, but among non-carriers, average age was earlier in males than females regardless of race. APOE ε4 carriers had on average a higher proportion of diagnoses; results did not differ by race or sex. Conclusions: APOE ε4 carrier status is associated with earlier age of dementia diagnosis with differences across race and sex. These findings clarify the causal role of APOE in dementia etiology, which could help better identify at-risk subgroups and may help facilitate better research trial recruitment and design.

Secular Trends in Breast Cancer Risk Among Women With HIV Initiating ART in North America.

BACKGROUND: Studies suggest lower risk of breast cancer in women with HIV versus without HIV. These estimates may be biased by lower life expectancy and younger age distribution of women with HIV. Our analysis evaluated this bias and characterized secular trends in breast cancer among women with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy. We hypothesized breast cancer risk would increase over time as mortality decreased. SETTING: Women with HIV prescribed antiretroviral therapy in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) from 1997 through 2016. METHODS: We estimated breast cancer hazard (cause-specific hazard ratios) and cumulative incidence accounting for competing risks (subdistribution hazard ratios) to assess changes in breast cancer risk over time. This was assessed overall (1997-2016) and within/across calendar periods. Analyses were adjusted for race/ethnicity and inverse probability weighted for cohort. Cumulative incidence was graphically assessed by calendar period and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: We observed 11,587 women during 1997-2016, contributing 63 incident breast cancer diagnoses and 1,353 deaths [73,445 person-years (median follow-up = 4.5 years)]. Breast cancer cumulative incidence was 3.2% for 1997-2016. We observed no secular trends in breast cancer hazard or cumulative incidence. There were annual declines in the hazard and cumulative incidence of death (cause-specific hazard ratios and subdistribution hazard ratios: 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 0.91) which remained within and across calendar periods. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contradict the hypothesis of increasing breast cancer risk with declining mortality over time among women with HIV, suggesting limited impact of changing mortality on breast cancer risk. Additional inquiry is merited as survival improves among women with HIV.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Status in Decedents Undergoing Forensic Postmortem Examination in Maryland, May 24 to June 30, 2020.

Seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies was 10% among the subset of decedents undergoing forensic postmortem examination in June in Maryland. Decedents of motor vehicle crashes had similar seroprevalence compared with those with a natural death (including decedents with SARS-CoV-2 infection). Decedents of motor vehicle crashes may be a sentinel surveillance population.

Recommendations to the Society for Epidemiologic Research for Further Promoting Diversity and Inclusion at the Annual Meeting and Beyond.

Increasing diverse engagement in the Society for Epidemiologic Research (SER) will positively impact the field of epidemiology. As the largest and longest-running epidemiologic society in North America, SER has long been a pioneer in promoting diversity and inclusion. A recent survey of SER members, however, showed there is still room for improving diversity, inclusion, representation, and participation in the Society. In this commentary, as members of both the SER and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology's Inclusion, Diversity, Equity, Anti-Racism, and Science (Epi IDEAS) Working Group, we recommend 4 goals for the SER Annual Meeting and beyond: 1) convene epidemiologic researchers with diverse backgrounds and ideas; 2) promote an inclusive environment at the SER Annual Meeting; 3) develop, compile, and disseminate best practices to honor diversity in epidemiologic research; and 4) increase prioritization of health disparities research and methods. We also suggest strategies for achieving these goals so that SER can better include, support, and elevate members from historically disadvantaged groups. While our recommendations are tailored specifically to SER, the greater epidemiologic and academic communities could benefit from adopting these goals and strategies within their professional societies and conferences.