Statistical modeling of acute and chronic pain patient-reported outcomes obtained from ecological momentary assessment.

ABSTRACT: Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) allows for the collection of participant-reported outcomes (PROs), including pain, in the normal environment at high resolution and with reduced recall bias. Ecological momentary assessment is an important component in studies of pain, providing detailed information about the frequency, intensity, and degree of interference of individuals' pain. However, there is no universally agreed on standard for summarizing pain measures from repeated PRO assessment using EMA into a single, clinically meaningful measure of pain. Here, we quantify the accuracy of summaries (eg, mean and median) of pain outcomes obtained from EMA and the effect of thresholding these summaries to obtain binary clinical end points of chronic pain status (yes/no). Data applications and simulations indicate that binarizing empirical estimators (eg, sample mean, random intercept linear mixed model) can perform well. However, linear mixed-effect modeling estimators that account for the nonlinear relationship between average and variability of pain scores perform better for quantifying the true average pain and reduce estimation error by up to 50%, with larger improvements for individuals with more variable pain scores. We also show that binarizing pain scores (eg, <3 and ≥3) can lead to a substantial loss of statistical power (40%-50%). Thus, when examining pain outcomes using EMA, the use of linear mixed models using the entire scale (0-10) is superior to splitting the outcomes into 2 groups (<3 and ≥3) providing greater statistical power and sensitivity.

National, regional, and global estimates of low birthweight in 2020, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g) is an important predictor of health outcomes throughout the life course. We aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of LBW prevalence for 2020, with trends from 2000, to assess progress towards global targets to reduce LBW by 30% by 2030. METHODS: For this systematic analysis, we searched population-based, nationally representative data on LBW from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2020. Using 2042 administrative and survey datapoints from 158 countries and areas, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical regression model incorporating country-specific intercepts, time-varying covariates, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on data quality. We also provided novel estimates by birthweight subgroups. FINDINGS: An estimated 19·8 million (95% credible interval 18·4-21·7 million) or 14·7% (13·7-16·1) of liveborn newborns were LBW worldwide in 2020, compared with 22·1 million (20·7-23·9 million) and 16·6% (15·5-17·9) in 2000-an absolute reduction of 1·9 percentage points between 2000 and 2020. Using 2012 as the baseline, as this is when the Global Nutrition Target began, the estimated average annual rate of reduction from 2012 to 2020 was 0·3% worldwide, 0·85% in southern Asia, and 0·59% in sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly three-quarters of LBW births in 2020 occurred in these two regions: of 19 833 900 estimated LBW births worldwide, 8 817 000 (44·5%) were in southern Asia and 5 381 300 (27·1%) were in sub-Saharan Africa. Of 945 300 estimated LBW births in northern America, Australia and New Zealand, central Asia, and Europe, approximately 35·0% (323 700) weighed less than 2000 g: 5·8% (95% CI 5·2-6·4; 54 800 [95% CI 49 400-60 800]) weighed less than 1000 g, 9·0% (8·7-9·4; 85 400 [82 000-88 900]) weighed between 1000 g and 1499 g, and 19·4% (19·0-19·8; 183 500 [180 000-187 000]) weighed between 1500 g and 1999 g. INTERPRETATION: Insufficient progress has occurred over the past two decades to meet the Global Nutrition Target of a 30% reduction in LBW between 2012 and 2030. Accelerating progress requires investments throughout the lifecycle focused on primary prevention, especially for adolescent girls and women living in the most affected countries. With increasing numbers of births in facilities and advancing electronic information systems, improvements in the quality and availability of administrative LBW data are also achievable. FUNDING: The Children's Investment Fund Foundation; the UNDP-UNFPA-UNICEF-WHO World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of ATNPD Framework and Biofluid Markers to Predict Cognitive Decline in Early Parkinson Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In Parkinson disease (PD), Alzheimer disease (AD) copathology is common and clinically relevant. However, the longitudinal progression of AD CSF biomarkers-ß-amyloid 1-42 (Aß42), phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181), and total tau (t-tau)-in PD is poorly understood and may be distinct from clinical AD. Moreover, it is unclear whether CSF p-tau181 and serum neurofilament light (NfL) have added prognostic utility in PD, when combined with CSF Aß42. First, we describe longitudinal trajectories of biofluid markers in PD. Second, we modified the AD ß-amyloid/tau/neurodegeneration (ATN) framework for application in PD (ATNPD) using CSF Aß42 (A), p-tau181 (T), and serum NfL (N) and tested ATNPD prediction of longitudinal cognitive decline in PD. METHODS: Participants were selected from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative cohort, clinically diagnosed with sporadic PD or as controls, and followed up annually for 5 years. Linear mixed-effects models (LMEMs) tested the interaction of diagnosis with longitudinal trajectories of analytes (log transformed, false discovery rate [FDR] corrected). In patients with PD, LMEMs tested how baseline ATNPD status (AD [A+T+N±] vs not) predicted clinical outcomes, including Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA; rank transformed, FDR corrected). RESULTS: Participants were 364 patients with PD and 168 controls, with comparable baseline mean (±SD) age (patients with PD = 62 ± 10 years; controls = 61 ± 11 years]; Mann-Whitney Wilcoxon: p = 0.4) and sex distribution (patients with PD = 231 male individuals [63%]; controls = 107 male individuals [64%]; χ2: p = 1). Patients with PD had overall lower CSF p-tau181 (ß = -0.16, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.092, p = 2.2e-05) and t-tau than controls (ß = -0.13, 95% CI -0.19 to -0.065, p = 4e-04), but not Aß42 (p = 0.061) or NfL (p = 0.32). Over time, patients with PD had greater increases in serum NfL than controls (ß = 0.035, 95% CI 0.022 to 0.048, p = 9.8e-07); slopes of patients with PD did not differ from those of controls for CSF Aß42 (p = 0.18), p-tau181 (p = 1), or t-tau (p = 0.96). Using ATNPD, PD classified as A+T+N± (n = 32; 9%) had worse cognitive decline on global MoCA (ß = -73, 95% CI -110 to -37, p = 0.00077) than all other ATNPD statuses including A+ alone (A+T-N-; n = 75; 21%). DISCUSSION: In patients with early PD, CSF p-tau181 and t-tau were low compared with those in controls and did not increase over 5 years of follow-up. Our study shows that classification using modified ATNPD (incorporating CSF Aß42, CSF p-tau181, and serum NfL) can identify biologically relevant subgroups of PD to improve prediction of cognitive decline in early PD.

A biological definition of neuronal α-synuclein disease: towards an integrated staging system for research.

Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies are currently defined by their clinical features, with α-synuclein pathology as the gold standard to establish the definitive diagnosis. We propose that, given biomarker advances enabling accurate detection of pathological α-synuclein (ie, misfolded and aggregated) in CSF using the seed amplification assay, it is time to redefine Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies as neuronal α-synuclein disease rather than as clinical syndromes. This major shift from a clinical to a biological definition of Parkinson's disease and dementia with Lewy bodies takes advantage of the availability of tools to assess the gold standard for diagnosis of neuronal α-synuclein (n-αsyn) in human beings during life. Neuronal α-synuclein disease is defined by the presence of pathological n-αsyn species detected in vivo (S; the first biological anchor) regardless of the presence of any specific clinical syndrome. On the basis of this definition, we propose that individuals with pathological n-αsyn aggregates are at risk for dopaminergic neuronal dysfunction (D; the second biological anchor). Our biological definition establishes a staging system, the neuronal α-synuclein disease integrated staging system (NSD-ISS), rooted in the biological anchors (S and D) and the degree of functional impairment caused by clinical signs or symptoms. Stages 0-1 occur without signs or symptoms and are defined by the presence of pathogenic variants in the SNCA gene (stage 0), S alone (stage 1A), or S and D (stage 1B). The presence of clinical manifestations marks the transition to stage 2 and beyond. Stage 2 is characterised by subtle signs or symptoms but without functional impairment. Stages 2B-6 require both S and D and stage-specific increases in functional impairment. A biological definition of neuronal α-synuclein disease and an NSD-ISS research framework are essential to enable interventional trials at early disease stages. The NSD-ISS will evolve to include the incorporation of data-driven definitions of stage-specific functional anchors and additional biomarkers as they emerge and are validated. Presently, the NSD-ISS is intended for research use only; its application in the clinical setting is premature and inappropriate.

Safety and Efficacy of Topiramate in Individuals With Cryptogenic Sensory Peripheral Neuropathy With Metabolic Syndrome: The TopCSPN Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Cryptogenic sensory peripheral neuropathy (CSPN) is highly prevalent and often disabling due to neuropathic pain. Metabolic syndrome and its components increase neuropathy risk. Diet and exercise have shown promise but are limited by poor adherence. Objective: To determine whether topiramate can slow decline in intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD) and/or neuropathy-specific quality of life measured using the Norfolk Quality of Life-Diabetic Neuropathy (NQOL-DN) scale. Design, Setting, and Participants: Topiramate as a Disease-Modifying Therapy for CSPN (TopCSPN) was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial conducted between February 2018 and October 2021. TopCSPN was performed at 20 sites in the National Institutes of Health-funded Network for Excellence in Neurosciences Clinical Trials (NeuroNEXT). Individuals with CSPN and metabolic syndrome aged 18 to 80 years were screened and randomly assigned by body mass index (<30 vs ≥30), which is calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared. Patients were excluded if they had poorly controlled diabetes, prior topiramate treatment, recurrent nephrolithiasis, type 1 diabetes, use of insulin within 3 months before screening, history of foot ulceration, planned bariatric surgery, history of alcohol or drug overuse in the 2 years before screening, family history of a hereditary neuropathy, or an alternative neuropathy cause. Interventions: Participants received topiramate or matched placebo titrated to a maximum-tolerated dose of 100 mg per day. Main Outcomes and Measures: IENFD and NQOL-DN score were co-primary outcome measures. A positive study was defined as efficacy in both or efficacy in one and noninferiority in the other. Results: A total of 211 individuals were screened, and 132 were randomly assigned to treatment groups: 66 in the topiramate group and 66 in the placebo group. Age and sex were similar between groups (topiramate: mean [SD] age, 61 (10) years; 38 male [58%]; placebo: mean [SD] age, 62 (11) years; 44 male [67%]). The difference in change in IENFD and NQOL-DN score was noninferior but not superior in the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis (IENFD, 0.21 fibers/mm per year; 95% CI, -0.43 to ∞ fibers/mm per year and NQOL-DN score, -1.52 points per year; 95% CI, -∞ to 1.19 points per year). A per-protocol analysis excluding noncompliant participants based on serum topiramate levels and those with major protocol deviations demonstrated superiority in NQOL-DN score (-3.69 points per year; 95% CI, -∞ to -0.73 points per year). Patients treated with topiramate had a mean (SD) annual change in IENFD of 0.56 fibers/mm per year relative to placebo (95% CI, -0.21 to ∞ fibers/mm per year). Although IENFD was stable in the topiramate group compared with a decline consistent with expected natural history, this difference did not demonstrate superiority. Conclusion and Relevance: Topiramate did not slow IENFD decline or affect NQOL-DN score in the primary ITT analysis. Some participants were intolerant of topiramate. NQOL-DN score was superior among those compliant based on serum levels and without major protocol deviations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02878798.

Adult Moyamoya Disease and Syndrome: Current Perspectives and Future Directions: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association.

Adult moyamoya disease and syndrome are rare disorders with significant morbidity and mortality. A writing group of experts was selected to conduct a literature search, summarize the current knowledge on the topic, and provide a road map for future investigation. The document presents an update in the definitions of moyamoya disease and syndrome, modern methods for diagnosis, and updated information on pathophysiology, epidemiology, and both medical and surgical treatment. Despite recent advancements, there are still many unresolved questions about moyamoya disease and syndrome, including lack of unified diagnostic criteria, reliable biomarkers, better understanding of the underlying pathophysiology, and stronger evidence for treatment guidelines. To advance progress in this area, it is crucial to acknowledge the limitations and weaknesses of current studies and explore new approaches, which are outlined in this scientific statement for future research strategies.

Effects of AFQ056 on language learning in fragile X syndrome.

BACKGROUNDFXLEARN, the first-ever large multisite trial of effects of disease-targeted pharmacotherapy on learning, was designed to explore a paradigm for measuring effects of mechanism-targeted treatment in fragile X syndrome (FXS). In FXLEARN, the effects of metabotropic glutamate receptor type 5 (mGluR5) negative allosteric modulator (NAM) AFQ056 on language learning were evaluated in 3- to 6-year-old children with FXS, expected to have more learning plasticity than adults, for whom prior trials of mGluR5 NAMs have failed.METHODSAfter a 4-month single-blind placebo lead-in, participants were randomized 1:1 to AFQ056 or placebo, with 2 months of dose optimization to the maximum tolerated dose, then 6 months of treatment during which a language-learning intervention was implemented for both groups. The primary outcome was a centrally scored videotaped communication measure, the Weighted Communication Scale (WCS). Secondary outcomes were objective performance-based and parent-reported cognitive and language measures.RESULTSFXLEARN enrolled 110 participants, randomized 99, and had 91 who completed the placebo-controlled period. Although both groups made language progress and there were no safety issues, the change in WCS score during the placebo-controlled period was not significantly different between the AFQ056 and placebo-treated groups, nor were there any significant between-group differences in change in any secondary measures.CONCLUSIONDespite the large body of evidence supporting use of mGluR5 NAMs in animal models of FXS, this study suggests that this mechanism of action does not translate into benefit for the human FXS population and that better strategies are needed to determine which mechanisms will translate from preclinical models to humans in genetic neurodevelopmental disorders.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClincalTrials.gov NCT02920892.FUNDING SOURCESNeuroNEXT network NIH grants U01NS096767, U24NS107200, U24NS107209, U01NS077323, U24NS107183, U24NS107168, U24NS107128, U24NS107199, U24NS107198, U24NS107166, U10NS077368, U01NS077366, U24NS107205, U01NS077179, and U01NS077352; NIH grant P50HD103526; and Novartis IIT grant AFQ056X2201T for provision of AFQ056.

Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative: A Milestone-Based Strategy to Monitor Parkinson's Disease Progression.

BACKGROUND: Identifying a meaningful progression metric for Parkinson's disease (PD) that reflects heterogeneity remains a challenge. OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency and baseline predictors of progression to clinically relevant motor and non-motor PD milestones. METHODS: Using data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) de novo PD cohort, we monitored 25 milestones across six domains ("walking and balance"; "motor complications"; "cognition"; "autonomic dysfunction"; "functional dependence"; "activities of daily living"). Milestones were intended to be severe enough to reflect meaningful disability. We assessed the proportion of participants reaching any milestone; evaluated which occurred most frequently; and conducted a time-to-first-event analysis exploring whether baseline characteristics were associated with progression. RESULTS: Half of participants reached at least one milestone within five years. Milestones within the cognitive, functional dependence, and autonomic dysfunction domains were reached most often. Among participants who reached a milestone at an annual follow-up visit and remained active in the study, 82% continued to meet criteria for any milestone at one or more subsequent annual visits and 55% did so at the next annual visit. In multivariable analysis, baseline features predicting faster time to reaching a milestone included age (p < 0.0001), greater MDS-UPDRS total scores (p < 0.0001), higher GDS-15 depression scores (p = 0.0341), lower dopamine transporter binding (p = 0.0043), and lower CSF total α-synuclein levels (p = 0.0030). Symptomatic treatment was not significantly associated with reaching a milestone (p = 0.1639). CONCLUSION: Clinically relevant milestones occur frequently, even in early PD. Milestones were significantly associated with baseline clinical and biological markers, but not with symptomatic treatment. Further studies are necessary to validate these results, further assess the stability of milestones, and explore translating them into an outcome measure suitable for observational and therapeutic studies.

Impact of the Dopamine System on Long-Term Cognitive Impairment in Parkinson Disease: An Exploratory Study.

Background: Little is known about the impact of the dopamine system on development of cognitive impairment (CI) in Parkinson disease (PD). Objectives: We used data from a multi-site, international, prospective cohort study to explore the impact of dopamine system-related biomarkers on CI in PD. Methods: PD participants were assessed annually from disease onset out to 7 years, and CI determined by applying cut-offs to four measures: (1) Montreal Cognitive Assessment; (2) detailed neuropsychological test battery; (3) Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) cognition score; and (4) site investigator diagnosis of CI (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). The dopamine system was assessed by serial Iodine-123 Ioflupane dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging, genotyping, and levodopa equivalent daily dose (LEDD) recorded at each assessment. Multivariate longitudinal analyses, with adjustment for multiple comparisons, determined the association between dopamine system-related biomarkers and CI, including persistent impairment. Results: Demographic and clinical variables associated with CI were higher age, male sex, lower education, non-White race, higher depression and anxiety scores and higher MDS-UPDRS motor score. For the dopamine system, lower baseline mean striatum dopamine transporter values (P range 0.003-0.005) and higher LEDD over time (P range <0.001-0.01) were significantly associated with increased risk for CI. Conclusions: Our results provide preliminary evidence that alterations in the dopamine system predict development of clinically-relevant, cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease. If replicated and determined to be causative, they demonstrate that the dopamine system is instrumental to cognitive health status throughout the disease course. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01141023).

Predicting chronic postsurgical pain: current evidence and a novel program to develop predictive biomarker signatures.

ABSTRACT: Chronic pain affects more than 50 million Americans. Treatments remain inadequate, in large part, because the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the development of chronic pain remain poorly understood. Pain biomarkers could potentially identify and measure biological pathways and phenotypical expressions that are altered by pain, provide insight into biological treatment targets, and help identify at-risk patients who might benefit from early intervention. Biomarkers are used to diagnose, track, and treat other diseases, but no validated clinical biomarkers exist yet for chronic pain. To address this problem, the National Institutes of Health Common Fund launched the Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures (A2CPS) program to evaluate candidate biomarkers, develop them into biosignatures, and discover novel biomarkers for chronification of pain after surgery. This article discusses candidate biomarkers identified by A2CPS for evaluation, including genomic, proteomic, metabolomic, lipidomic, neuroimaging, psychophysical, psychological, and behavioral measures. Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures will provide the most comprehensive investigation of biomarkers for the transition to chronic postsurgical pain undertaken to date. Data and analytic resources generatedby A2CPS will be shared with the scientific community in hopes that other investigators will extract valuable insights beyond A2CPS's initial findings. This article will review the identified biomarkers and rationale for including them, the current state of the science on biomarkers of the transition from acute to chronic pain, gaps in the literature, and how A2CPS will address these gaps.

Assessment of heterogeneity among participants in the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative cohort using α-synuclein seed amplification: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence shows that α-synuclein seed amplification assays (SAAs) have the potential to differentiate people with Parkinson's disease from healthy controls. We used the well characterised, multicentre Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) cohort to further assess the diagnostic performance of the α-synuclein SAA and to examine whether the assay identifies heterogeneity among patients and enables the early identification of at-risk groups. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis is based on assessments done at enrolment for PPMI participants (including people with sporadic Parkinson's disease from LRRK2 and GBA variants, healthy controls, prodromal individuals with either rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) or hyposmia, and non-manifesting carriers of LRRK2 and GBA variants) from 33 participating academic neurology outpatient practices worldwide (in Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, the UK, and the USA). α-synuclein SAA analysis of CSF was performed using previously described methods. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of the α-synuclein SAA in participants with Parkinson's disease and healthy controls, including subgroups based on genetic and clinical features. We established the frequency of positive α-synuclein SAA results in prodromal participants (RBD and hyposmia) and non-manifesting carriers of genetic variants associated with Parkinson's disease, and compared α-synuclein SAA to clinical measures and other biomarkers. We used odds ratio estimates with 95% CIs to measure the association between α-synuclein SAA status and categorical measures, and two-sample 95% CIs from the resampling method to assess differences in medians between α-synuclein SAA positive and negative participants for continuous measures. A linear regression model was used to control for potential confounders such as age and sex. FINDINGS: This analysis included 1123 participants who were enrolled between July 7, 2010, and July 4, 2019. Of these, 545 had Parkinson's disease, 163 were healthy controls, 54 were participants with scans without evidence of dopaminergic deficit, 51 were prodromal participants, and 310 were non-manifesting carriers. Sensitivity for Parkinson's disease was 87·7% (95% CI 84·9-90·5), and specificity for healthy controls was 96·3% (93·4-99·2). The sensitivity of the α-synuclein SAA in sporadic Parkinson's disease with the typical olfactory deficit was 98·6% (96·4-99·4). The proportion of positive α-synuclein SAA was lower than this figure in subgroups including LRRK2 Parkinson's disease (67·5% [59·2-75·8]) and participants with sporadic Parkinson's disease without olfactory deficit (78·3% [69·8-86·7]). Participants with LRRK2 variant and normal olfaction had an even lower α-synuclein SAA positivity rate (34·7% [21·4-48·0]). Among prodromal and at-risk groups, 44 (86%) of 51 of participants with RBD or hyposmia had positive α-synuclein SAA (16 of 18 with hyposmia, and 28 of 33 with RBD). 25 (8%) of 310 non-manifesting carriers (14 of 159 [9%] LRRK2 and 11 of 151 [7%] GBA) were positive. INTERPRETATION: This study represents the largest analysis so far of the α-synuclein SAA for the biochemical diagnosis of Parkinson's disease. Our results show that the assay classifies people with Parkinson's disease with high sensitivity and specificity, provides information about molecular heterogeneity, and detects prodromal individuals before diagnosis. These findings suggest a crucial role for the α-synuclein SAA in therapeutic development, both to identify pathologically defined subgroups of people with Parkinson's disease and to establish biomarker-defined at-risk cohorts. FUNDING: PPMI is funded by the Michael J Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research and funding partners, including: Abbvie, AcureX, Aligning Science Across Parkinson's, Amathus Therapeutics, Avid Radiopharmaceuticals, Bial Biotech, Biohaven, Biogen, BioLegend, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Calico Labs, Celgene, Cerevel, Coave, DaCapo Brainscience, 4D Pharma, Denali, Edmond J Safra Foundation, Eli Lilly, GE Healthcare, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Golub Capital, Insitro, Janssen Neuroscience, Lundbeck, Merck, Meso Scale Discovery, Neurocrine Biosciences, Prevail Therapeutics, Roche, Sanofi Genzyme, Servier, Takeda, Teva, UCB, VanquaBio, Verily, Voyager Therapeutics, and Yumanity.

Central and peripheral α-synuclein in Parkinson disease detected by seed amplification assay.

OBJECTIVES: Detection of α-synuclein aggregates by seed amplification is a promising Parkinson disease biomarker assay. Understanding intraindividual relationships of α-synuclein measures could inform optimal biomarker development. The objectives were to test accuracy of α-synuclein seed amplification assay in central (cerebrospinal fluid) and peripheral (submandibular gland) sources, compare to total α-synuclein measures, and investigate within-subject relationships. METHODS: The Systemic Synuclein Sampling Study aimed to characterize α-synuclein in multiple tissues and biofluids within Parkinson disease subjects (n = 59) and compared to healthy controls (n = 21). Motor and non-motor measures and dopamine transporter scans were obtained. Four measures of α-synuclein were compared: seed amplification assay in cerebrospinal fluid and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded submandibular gland, total α-synuclein quantified in biofluids using enzyme-linked immunoassay, and aggregated α-synuclein in submandibular gland detected by immunohistochemistry. Accuracy of seed amplification assay for Parkinson disease diagnosis was examined and within-subject α-synuclein measures were compared. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity of α-synuclein seed amplification assay for Parkinson disease diagnosis was 92.6% and 90.5% in cerebrospinal fluid, and 73.2% and 78.6% in submandibular gland, respectively. 25/38 (65.8%) Parkinson disease participants were positive for both cerebrospinal fluid and submandibular gland seed amplification assay. Comparing accuracy for Parkinson disease diagnosis of different α-synuclein measures, cerebrospinal fluid seed amplification assay was the highest (Youden Index = 83.1%). 98.3% of all Parkinson disease cases had ≥1 measure of α-synuclein positive. INTERPRETATION: α-synuclein seed amplification assay (cerebrospinal fluid>submandibular gland) had higher sensitivity and specificity compared to total α-synuclein measures, and within-subject relationships of central and peripheral α-synuclein measures emerged.

Updated Percentiles for the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test in Adults 50 Years of Age and Older.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT) is commonly used to assess olfaction and screen for early detection of disorders including Parkinson (PD) and Alzheimer disease. Our objective was to develop updated percentiles, based on substantially larger samples than previous norms, to more finely discriminate age- and sex-specific UPSIT performance among ≥50-year-old adults who may be candidates for studies of prodromal neurodegenerative diseases. METHODS: The UPSIT was administered cross-sectionally to participants recruited between 2007-2010 and 2013-2015 for the Parkinson Associated Risk Syndrome (PARS) and Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) cohort studies, respectively. Exclusion criteria included age <50 years and a confirmed or suspected PD diagnosis. Demographics, family history, and prodromal features of PD including self-reported hyposmia were collected. Normative data including mean, SDs, and percentiles were derived by age and sex. RESULTS: The analytic sample included 9,396 individuals (5,336 female and 4,060 male), aged 50-95 years, who were predominantly White, non-Hispanic US residents. UPSIT percentiles were derived and are provided across 7 age categories (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and ≥80 years) for female and male participants separately; relative to existing norms, subgroups included between 2.4 and 20 times as many participants. Olfactory function declined with age and was better among women than men; accordingly, the percentile corresponding to a given raw score varied markedly by age and sex. UPSIT performance was comparable among individuals with vs without first-degree family history of PD. Comparisons of self-reported hyposmia vs UPSIT percentiles indicated a strong association (χ2 p < 0.0001) but minimal agreement (Cohen simple kappa [95% CI]: = 0.32 [0.28-0.36] for female participants; 0.34 [0.30-0.38] for male participants). DISCUSSION: Updated age/sex-specific UPSIT percentiles are provided for ≥50-year-old adults who reflect a population likely to be recruited into studies of prodromal neurodegenerative diseases. Our findings highlight the potential advantages of evaluating olfaction relative to age and sex instead of in absolute terms (i.e., based on raw UPSIT scores) or based on subjective (i.e., self-reported) measures. This information addresses the need to support studies of disorders including PD and Alzheimer disease by providing updated normative data from a larger sample of older adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: NCT00387075 and NCT01141023.

LRRK2 and GBA1 variant carriers have higher urinary bis(monacylglycerol) phosphate concentrations in PPMI cohorts.

We quantified concentrations of three isoforms of the endolysosomal lipid, bis(monoacylglycerol) phosphate (BMP) in the urine of deeply phenotyped cohorts in the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative: LRRK2 G2019S PD (N = 134) and non-manifesting carriers (NMC) (G2019S+ NMC; N = 182), LRRK2 R1441G PD (N = 15) and R1441G+ NMC (N = 15), GBA1 N409S PD (N = 76) and N409S+ NMC (N = 178), sporadic PD (sPD, N = 379) and healthy controls (HC) (N = 190). The effects of each mutation and disease status were analyzed using nonparametric methods. Longitudinal changes in BMP levels were analyzed using linear mixed models. At baseline, all LRRK2 carriers had 3-7× higher BMP levels compared to HC, irrespective of the disease status. GBA1 N409S carriers also showed significant, albeit smaller, elevation (~30-40%) in BMP levels compared to HC. In LRRK2 G2019S PD, urinary BMP levels remained stable over two years. Furthermore, baseline BMP levels did not predict disease progression as measured by striatal DaT imaging, MDS-UPDRS III Off, or MoCA in any of the cohorts. These data support the utility of BMP as a target modulation biomarker in therapeutic trials of genetic and sPD but not as a prognostic or disease progression biomarker.

Impact of preventive pill-based treatment on migraine days: A secondary outcome study of the Childhood and Adolescent Migraine Prevention (CHAMP) trial and a comparison of self-report to nosology-derived assessments.

OBJECTIVE: To examine group differences in self-reported migraine days among youth who completed the Childhood and Adolescent Migraine Prevention (CHAMP) trial prior to its closure and explore the relationship between self-reported and "nosology-derived" (i.e., International Classification of Headache Disorders, 3rd edition [ICHD-3]) migraine days. BACKGROUND: The CHAMP trial compared amitriptyline and topiramate to placebo for migraine prevention in youth and proposed to analyze change in migraine days as a secondary outcome. There is considerable variability in the field regarding what constitutes a "migraine day," how this is determined and reported in trials, and how consistent these measures are with diagnostic nosology. METHODS: CHAMP trial completers (N = 175) were randomized to receive amitriptyline (n = 77), topiramate (n = 63), or placebo (n = 35). Participants maintained daily headache diaries where they reported each day with headache and if they considered that headache to be a migraine. For each headache day, participants completed a symptom record and reported about symptoms such as pain location(s) and presence of nausea/vomiting or photophobia and phonophobia. We examined group differences in self-reported migraine days at trial completion (summed from trial weeks 20-24) compared to baseline. We also used an algorithm to determine whether participants' symptom reports met ICHD-3 criteria for migraine without aura, and examined the association between self-reported and "nosology-derived" migraine days. RESULTS: Results showed no significant differences between groups in self-reported migraine days over the course of the trial. Self-reported and "nosology-derived" migraine days during the baseline and treatment phases were strongly associated (r's = 0.73 and 0.83, respectively; p's < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Regardless of treatment, CHAMP trial completers showed clinically important reductions in self-reported migraine days over the course of the trial (about 3.8 days less). The strong association between self-reported and "nosology-derived" migraine days suggests youth with migraine can recognize a day with migraine and reliably report their headache features and symptoms. Greater rigor and transparency in the calculation and reporting of migraine days in trials is needed.

Longitudinal clinical and biomarker characteristics of non-manifesting LRRK2 G2019S carriers in the PPMI cohort.

We examined 2-year longitudinal change in clinical features and biomarkers in LRRK2 non-manifesting carriers (NMCs) versus healthy controls (HCs) enrolled in the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). We analyzed 2-year longitudinal data from 176 LRRK2 G2019S NMCs and 185 HCs. All participants were assessed annually with comprehensive motor and non-motor scales, dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging, and biofluid biomarkers. The latter included cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Abeta, total tau and phospho-tau; serum urate and neurofilament light chain (NfL); and urine bis(monoacylglycerol) phosphate (BMP). At baseline, LRRK2 G2019S NMCs had a mean (SD) age of 62 (7.7) years and were 56% female. 13% had DAT deficit (defined as <65% of age/sex-expected lowest putamen SBR) and 11% had hyposmia (defined as ≤15th percentile for age and sex). Only 5 of 176 LRRK2 NMCs developed PD during follow-up. Although NMCs scored significantly worse on numerous clinical scales at baseline than HCs, there was no longitudinal change in any clinical measures over 2 years or in DAT binding. There were no longitudinal differences in CSF and serum biomarkers between NMCs and HCs. Urinary BMP was significantly elevated in NMCs at all time points but did not change longitudinally. Neither baseline biofluid biomarkers nor the presence of DAT deficit correlated with 2-year change in clinical outcomes. We observed no significant 2-year longitudinal change in clinical or biomarker measures in LRRK2 G2019S NMCs in this large, well-characterized cohort even in the participants with baseline DAT deficit. These findings highlight the essential need for further enrichment biomarker discovery in addition to DAT deficit and longer follow-up to enable the selection of NMCs at the highest risk for conversion to enable future prevention clinical trials.

Statistical Considerations in the Design of Clinical Trials Targeting Prodromal Parkinson Disease.

Clinical trials testing interventions for prodromal Parkinson disease (PD) hold particular promise for preserving neuronal function and thereby slowing or even forestalling progression to overt PD. Selection of the appropriate target population and outcome measures presents challenges unique to prodromal PD. We propose 3 clinical trial designs, spanning phase 2a, phase 2b, and phase 3 development, that might serve as templates for prodromal PD trials. The proposed phase 2a trial is of a 3-arm design of short duration and focuses on proof of concept with respect to target engagement and change in a motor outcome in a subset of prodromal participants who already manifest asymptomatic but measurable motor dysfunction as an exploratory aim. The proposed phase 2b trial suggests progression of dopamine transporter imaging specific binding ratio as a primary outcome evaluated annually over 2 years with phenoconversion to PD as a key secondary outcome. The proposed phase 3 trial is a large, simple design of a nutraceutical or behavioral intervention with remote administration and phenoconversion as the primary outcome. We then consider what additional data are needed in the short term to better design prodromal PD trials and examine what longer-term goals would accelerate discovery of safe and effective therapies for individuals at risk of PD. Clear and potentially context-specific definitions of phenoconversion and validation of intermediate endpoints are needed in the short term. The use of adaptive trial designs, master protocols, and research registries would help accelerate therapy development in the long term.

Association of Olfactory Performance With Motor Decline and Age at Onset in People With Parkinson Disease and the LRRK2 G2019S Variant.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There is clinical and phenotypic heterogeneity in LRRK2 G2019S Parkinson disease (PD), including loss of smell. Olfactory scores have defined subgroups of LRRK2 PD at baseline. We now extend this work longitudinally to better determine features associated with olfactory classes and to gain further insight into this heterogeneity. METHODS: Evaluation of 162 patients with LRRK2 PD and 198 patients with idiopathic PD (IPD) from the LRRK2 Ashkenazi Jewish Consortium was performed, with follow-up available for 92 patients with LRRK2 PD and 74 patients with IPD. Olfaction (University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test [UPSIT]), motor function (Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale), and cognition (Montreal Cognitive Assessment), as well as sleep, nonmotor, and mood, were measured. Gaussian mixture models were applied on the UPSIT percentile score to determine subgroups based on olfactory performance. Linear mixed effects models, using PD duration as the time scale, assessed the relationship between UPSIT subgroup membership and motor/cognitive change. RESULTS: Baseline olfaction was better in LRRK2 PD compared with IPD (mean UPSIT ± SD: 24.2 ± 8.8 vs 18.9 ± 7.6), with higher mean percentile scores (difference: 15.3 ± 11.6) (p < 0.001) and less frequent hyposmia (55.6% vs 85.4%; p < 0.001). Analysis suggested 3 classes among LRRK2 PD. Age at onset in LRRK2 PD was earlier in the worst olfaction group (group 1), compared with groups 2 and 3 (54.5 ± 11.1 vs 61.7 ± 9.3) (p = 0.012), and separately in the hyposmic group overall (55.0 ± 11.3 vs 61.7 ± 9.1) (p < 0.001). Longitudinal motor deterioration in LRRK2 PD was also significantly faster in the worst UPSIT group than the best UPSIT group (group 3 vs group 1: B = 0.31, SE = 0.35 vs B = 0.96, SE = 0.28) (rate difference = -0.65, SE = 0.29) (p = 0.03). However, olfactory group membership was not significantly associated with cognitive decline. DISCUSSION: In this large LRRK2 cohort with longitudinal analysis, we extend prior work demonstrating subgroups defined by olfaction in LRRK2 G2019S PD and show that the worst olfaction group has earlier age at PD onset and more rapid motor decline. This supports a subgroup of LRRK2 PD that might show more rapid change in a clinical trial of LRRK2-related agents and highlights the need to integrate careful phenotyping into allocation schema in clinical trials of LRRK2-related agents. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that worse olfactory scores were associated with an earlier age at symptomatic onset and a faster rate of motor deterioration in patients with LRRK2 PD.

Multi-Site Observational Study to Assess Biomarkers for Susceptibility or Resilience to Chronic Pain: The Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures (A2CPS) Study Protocol.

Chronic pain has become a global health problem contributing to years lived with disability and reduced quality of life. Advances in the clinical management of chronic pain have been limited due to incomplete understanding of the multiple risk factors and molecular mechanisms that contribute to the development of chronic pain. The Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures (A2CPS) Program aims to characterize the predictive nature of biomarkers (brain imaging, high-throughput molecular screening techniques, or "omics," quantitative sensory testing, patient-reported outcome assessments and functional assessments) to identify individuals who will develop chronic pain following surgical intervention. The A2CPS is a multisite observational study investigating biomarkers and collective biosignatures (a combination of several individual biomarkers) that predict susceptibility or resilience to the development of chronic pain following knee arthroplasty and thoracic surgery. This manuscript provides an overview of data collection methods and procedures designed to standardize data collection across multiple clinical sites and institutions. Pain-related biomarkers are evaluated before surgery and up to 3 months after surgery for use as predictors of patient reported outcomes 6 months after surgery. The dataset from this prospective observational study will be available for researchers internal and external to the A2CPS Consortium to advance understanding of the transition from acute to chronic postsurgical pain.

Prospective biomarker study in newly diagnosed glioblastoma: Cyto-C clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma (GBM) has a 5-year survival rate of 3%-5%. GBM treatment includes maximal resection followed by radiotherapy with concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ). Cytochrome C oxidase (CcO) is a mitochondrial enzyme involved in the mechanism of resistance to TMZ. In a prior retrospective trial, CcO activity in GBMs inversely correlated with clinical outcome. The current Cyto-C study was designed to prospectively evaluate and validate the prognostic value of tumor CcO activity in patients with newly diagnosed primary GBM, and compared to the known prognostic value of MGMT promoter methylation status. METHODS: This multi-institutional, blinded, prospective biomarker study enrolled 152 patients with newly diagnosed GBM who were to undergo surgical resection and would be candidates for standard of care. The primary end point was overall survival (OS) time, and the secondary end point was progression-free survival (PFS) time. Tumor CcO activity and MGMT promoter methylation status were assayed in a centralized laboratory. RESULTS: OS and PFS did not differ by high or low tumor CcO activity, and the prognostic validity of MGMT promoter methylation was confirmed. Notably, a planned exploratory analysis suggested that the combination of low CcO activity and MGMT promoter methylation in tumors may be predictive of long-term survival. CONCLUSIONS: Tumor CcO activity alone was not confirmed as a prognostic marker in GBM patients. However, the combination of low CcO activity and methylated MGMT promoter may reveal a subgroup of GBM patients with improved long-term survival that warrants further evaluation. Our work also demonstrates the importance of performing large, multi-institutional, prospective studies to validate biomarkers. We also discuss lessons learned in assembling such studies.