Accountability analysis of health benefits related to National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in China.

China is one of the largest producers and consumers of coal in the world. The National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in China (2013-2017) particularly aimed to reduce emissions from coal combustion. Here, we show whether the acute health effects of PM2.5 changed from 2013 to 2018 and factors that might account for any observed changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and the surrounding areas where there were major reductions in PM2.5 concentrations. We used a two-stage analysis strategy, with a quasi-Poisson regression model and a random effects meta-analysis, to assess the effects of PM2.5 on mortality in the 47 counties of BTH. We found that the mean daily PM2.5 levels and the SO42- component ratio dramatically decreased in the study period, which was likely related to the control of coal emissions. Subsequently, the acute effects of PM2.5 were significantly decreased for total and circulatory mortality. A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations was associated with a 0.16% (95% CI: 0.08, 0.24%) and 0.02% (95% CI: -0.09, 0.13%) increase in mortality from 2013 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2018, respectively. The changes in air pollution sources or PM2.5 components appeared to have played a core role in reducing the health effects. The air pollution control measures implemented recently targeting coal emissions taken in China may have resulted in significant health benefits.

Investigating hair cues as a mechanism underlying Black women's intersectional invisibility.

Children psychologically exclude Black women from their representations of women, but the mechanisms underlying this marginalization remain unclear. Across two studies (N = 129; 49 boys, 78 girls, two gender unreported; 79 White, 27 Black, six Latinx, five Asian, and 12 unreported), the present work tests hair texture as one possible perceptual mechanism by which this might occur. In both studies, children gender-categorized Black, White, and Asian men and women using MouseTracker. Children were slower and had more complex patterns in categorizing Black women when they had textured hair (Study 1A), but not when they had straight hair (Study 1B). Implications for the development of gender as a social category are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Reversal of trends in global fine particulate matter air pollution.

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Quantification is needed of regional contributions to changes in global PM2.5 exposure. Here we interpret satellite-derived PM2.5 estimates over 1998-2019 and find a reversal of previous growth in global PM2.5 air pollution, which is quantitatively attributed to contributions from 13 regions. Global population-weighted (PW) PM2.5 exposure, related to both pollution levels and population size, increased from 1998 (28.3 µg/m3) to a peak in 2011 (38.9 µg/m3) and decreased steadily afterwards (34.7 µg/m3 in 2019). Post-2011 change was related to exposure reduction in China and slowed exposure growth in other regions (especially South Asia, the Middle East and Africa). The post-2011 exposure reduction contributes to stagnation of growth in global PM2.5-attributable mortality and increasing health benefits per µg/m3 marginal reduction in exposure, implying increasing urgency and benefits of PM2.5 mitigation with aging population and cleaner air.

Ambient Air Quality Standards and Policies in Eastern Mediterranean Countries: A Review.

Objectives: National ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) are critical tools for controlling air pollution and protecting public health. We designed this study to 1) gather the NAAQS for six classical air pollutants: PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, and CO in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries, 2) compare those with the updated World Health Organizations Air Quality Guidelines (WHO AQGs 2021), 3) estimate the potential health benefits of achieving annual PM2.5 NAAQS and WHO AQGs per country, and 4) gather the information on air quality policies and action plans in the EMR countries. Methods: To gather information on the NAAQS, we searched several bibliographic databases, hand-searched the relevant papers and reports, and analysed unpublished data on NAAQS in the EMR countries reported from these countries to the WHO/Regional office of the Eastern Mediterranean/Climate Change, Health and Environment Unit (WHO/EMR/CHE). To estimate the potential health benefits of reaching the NAAQS and AQG levels for PM2.5, we used the average of ambient PM2.5 exposures in the 22 EMR countries in 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset and AirQ+ software. Results: Almost all of the EMR countries have national ambient air quality standards for the critical air pollutants except Djibouti, Somalia, and Yemen. However, the current standards for PM2.5 are up to 10 times higher than the current health-based WHO AQGs. The standards for other considered pollutants exceed AQGs as well. We estimated that the reduction of annual mean PM2.5 exposure level to the AQG level (5 µg m-3) would be associated with a decrease of all natural-cause mortality in adults (age 30+) by 16.9%-42.1% in various EMR countries. All countries would even benefit from the achievement of the Interim Target-2 (25 µg m-3) for annual mean PM2.5: it would reduce all-cause mortality by 3%-37.5%. Less than half of the countries in the Region reported having policies relevant to air quality management, in particular addressing pollution related to sand and desert storms (SDS) such as enhancing the implementation of sustainable land management practices, taking measures to prevent and control the main factors of SDS, and developing early warning systems as tools to combat SDS. Few countries conduct studies on the health effects of air pollution or on a contribution of SDS to pollution levels. Information from air quality monitoring is available for 13 out of the 22 EMR countries. Conclusion: Improvement of air quality management, including international collaboration and prioritization of SDS, supported by an update (or establishment) of NAAQSs and enhanced air quality monitoring are essential elements for reduction of air pollution and its health effects in the EMR.

Health burden and economic loss attributable to ambient PM2.5 in Iran based on the ground and satellite data.

We estimated mortality and economic loss attributable to PM2·5 air pollution exposure in 429 counties of Iran in 2018. Ambient PM2.5-related deaths were estimated using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). According to the ground-monitored and satellite-based PM2.5 data, the annual mean population-weighted PM2·5 concentrations for Iran were 30.1 and 38.6 µg m-3, respectively. We estimated that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 contributed to 49,303 (95% confidence interval (CI) 40,914-57,379) deaths in adults ≥ 25 yr. from all-natural causes based on ground monitored data and 58,873 (95% CI 49,024-68,287) deaths using satellite-based models for PM2.5. The crude death rate and the age-standardized death rate per 100,000 population for age group ≥ 25 year due to ground-monitored PM2.5 data versus satellite-based exposure estimates was 97 (95% CI 81-113) versus 116 (95% CI 97-135) and 125 (95% CI 104-145) versus 149 (95% CI 124-173), respectively. For ground-monitored and satellite-based PM2.5 data, the economic loss attributable to ambient PM2.5-total mortality was approximately 10,713 (95% CI 8890-12,467) and 12,792.1 (95% CI 10,652.0-14,837.6) million USD, equivalent to nearly 3.7% (95% CI 3.06-4.29) and 4.3% (95% CI 3.6-4.5.0) of the total gross domestic product in Iran in 2018.

Hourly Air Pollutants and Acute Coronary Syndrome Onset in 1.29 Million Patients.

BACKGROUND: Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked with daily hospitalization and mortality from acute coronary syndrome (ACS); however, the associations of subdaily (hourly) levels of criteria air pollutants with the onset of ACS and its subtypes have rarely been evaluated. METHODS: We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study among 1 292 880 patients with ACS from 2239 hospitals in 318 Chinese cities between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2020. Hourly concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) were collected. Hourly onset data of ACS and its subtypes, including ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, and unstable angina, were also obtained. Conditional logistic regressions combined with polynomial distributed lag models were applied. RESULTS: Acute exposures to PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO were each associated with the onset of ACS and its subtypes. These associations were strongest in the concurrent hour of exposure and were attenuated thereafter, with the weakest effects observed after 15 to 29 hours. There were no apparent thresholds in the concentration-response curves. An interquartile range increase in concentrations of PM2.5 (36.0 µg/m3), NO2 (29.0 µg/m3), SO2 (9.0 µg/m3), and CO (0.6 mg/m3) over the 0 to 24 hours before onset was significantly associated with 1.32%, 3.89%, 0.67%, and 1.55% higher risks of ACS onset, respectively. For a given pollutant, the associations were comparable in magnitude across different subtypes of ACS. NO2 showed the strongest associations with all 3 subtypes, followed by PM2.5, CO, and SO2. Greater magnitude of associations was observed among patients older than 65 years and in the cold season. Null associations of exposure to either PM2.5-10 or O3 with ACS onset were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that transient exposure to the air pollutants PM2.5, NO2, SO2, or CO, but not PM2.5-10 or O3, may trigger the onset of ACS, even at concentrations below the World Health Organization air quality guidelines.

Associations of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter and its constituents with cardiovascular mortality: A prospective cohort study in China.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated long-term cardiovascular effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and its constituents in countries with high air pollution levels. We aimed to investigate the associations of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and constituents with cardiovascular mortality in China. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 90,672 adults ≥ 18 years from 2010 to 2017 in 161 districts/counties across China. The residential annual-average exposure to PM2.5 and 6 main components from 2011 to 2017 were estimated by satellite-based and chemical transport models. Associations of PM2.5 and constituents with cardiovascular mortality were analyzed by competing-risk Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The average PM2.5 exposure throughout the whole period was 46 ± 22 µg/m3. The hazard ratios of mortality (95% confidence intervals) per 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations were 1.02 (1.00, 1.05) for overall cardiovascular disease, 1.05 (1.01, 1.09) for ischemic heart disease, 1.03 (1.00, 1.06) for overall stroke, 0.99 (0.94, 1.04) for hemorrhagic stroke, and 1.11 (1.04, 1.19) for ischemic stroke. PM2.5 constituents from fossil fuel combustion (i.e., black carbon, organic matter, nitrate, ammonium, and sulfate) showed larger hazard ratios than PM2.5 total mass, while soil dust showed no risks. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide cohort study demonstrated associations of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and its constituents with increased risks of cardiovascular mortality in the general population of China. Our study highlighted the importance of PM2.5 constituents from fossil fuel combustion in the long-term cardiovascular effects of PM2.5 in China.

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Over 3 million people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM2·5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean-air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (eg, to avoid 1·5°C of warming) might also greatly improve air quality and public health. However, no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes has been done under different energy pathways and local clean-air management decisions in China. We aimed to develop an integrated method for quantifying the health co-benefits from different climate, energy, and clean-air policy scenarios and to assess the relationship between climate and clean-air policies and future health burdens in China, where an ageing population will further exacerbate the effects of air pollution. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used a China-focused integrated assessment model and a dynamic emission projection model to project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (1·5°C, 2°C, national determined contributions [NDC], unambitious, baseline, and 4·5°C) and national clean-air actions (termed 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluated the health effects of PM2·5 air pollution in the scenario matrix using the air quality model and the latest epidemiological concentration-response functions from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. FINDINGS: We found that, without ambitious climate mitigation (eg, under current NDC pledge), Chinese deaths related to PM2·5 air pollution might not always decrease-and might often grow-by 2050 compared with the base year of 2015, regardless of clean-air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in the scenario that tracks China's current NDC pledge and uses the best available pollution control technologies (the ambitious-pollution and NDC goals scenario), PM2·5-related deaths in China would decrease slightly by 2030 to 1·23 million per year (95% CI 0·95-1·51) from 1·25 million (1·04-1·46) in 2015, but would not decrease further by 2050 (1·21 million, 0·86-1·60) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (from 27·2 µg/m3 in 2030 to 16·0 µg/m3 in 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM2·5-related deaths in many of our scenarios revealed the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the increasing age of China's population in the future. With the scenarios that included ambitious clean-air policies and met international climate goals to avoid 1·5°C and 2°C of warming (the ambitious-pollution-2°C goals scenario and the ambitious-pollution-1·5°C goals scenario), we observed substantial decreases in China's PM2·5-related deaths of 0·32-0·55 million deaths compared with NDC goals in 2050, and age-standardised death rates decreased by 10·2-14·2 deaths per 100 000 population per year. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that ambitious climate policies (ie, limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2°C) and low-carbon energy transitions coupled with stringent clean-air policies are necessary to substantially reduce the human health effects from air pollution in China, regardless of socioeconomic assumptions. Our findings could help policy makers understand the crucial links between climate policy and public health. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Mid- to Late-Life Inflammation and Risk of Cardiac Dysfunction, HFpEF and HFrEF in Late Life.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic data supporting the association of accumulated inflammation from mid- to late life with late-life risk of cardiac dysfunction and heart failure (HF) is limited. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 4011 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study who were free of prevalent cardiovascular disease at study Visit 5, accumulated inflammation was defined as time-averaged high-sensitivity c-reactive protein (hsCRP) over 3 visits spanning 1990 to 2013. Associations with left ventricular (LV) function at Visit 5 and with incident adjudicated HF post Visit 5 were assessed using linear and Cox regression, adjusting for demographics and comorbidities. Higher accumulated hsCRP was associated with greater LV mass index, lower e', higher E/e', and higher adjusting for demographics (all P ≤0.01), but only with higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure after adjustment for comorbidities (P = 0.024). At 5.3 ± 1.2 year follow-up, higher accumulated hsCRP was associated with greater risk of incident HF (HR 1.31 [95% CI 1.18-1.47], P < 0.001), HFrEF (1.26 [1.05-1.52], P = 0.01), and HFpEF (1.30 [1.11-1.53], P = 0.001) in demographic-adjusted models, but not after adjustment for comorbidities (all P > 0.10). Only Visit 5 hsCRP remained associated with incident HF (1.12 [1.02-1.24], P = 0.02) after full adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Greater accumulated inflammation is associated with worse LV function and heightened HF risk in late-life. These relationships are attenuated after adjusting for HF risk factors.

Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost.

BACKGROUND: The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged ≥60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. METHODS: In this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM2·5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0·1°â€ˆ× 0·1° (about 11 km × 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a health-related cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2·5. Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentration-response functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2016, PM2·5 was estimated to have caused 8·42 million (95% UI 6·50-10·52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163·68 million (116·03-219·44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution for the older population was US$2·40 trillion (1·89-2·93) accounting for 59% (59-60) of the cost for the total population ($4·09 trillion [3·19-5·05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160-3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged <60 years). By assessing the factors that contributed to economic costs, we found that increases in these factors changed the total economic cost by 77% for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, 21% for population ageing, 16% for population growth, -41% for age-specific mortality, and -0·4% for PM2·5 exposure. INTERPRETATION: The economic cost of ambient PM2·5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even after accounting for their relatively shorter life expectancy and increased disability. As the world's population is ageing, the disproportionate health cost attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution potentially widens the health inequities for older people. Countries with severe air pollution and rapid ageing rates need to take immediate actions to improve air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing health-care services, especially targeting the older population, could be beneficial for reducing the health costs of ambient air pollution. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and Qiushi Foundation.

The effect of air pollution on deaths, disease burden, and life expectancy across China and its provinces, 1990-2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is an important public health concern in China, with high levels of exposure to both ambient and household air pollution. To inform action at provincial levels in China, we estimated the exposure to air pollution and its effect on deaths, disease burden, and loss of life expectancy across all provinces in China from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: In all 33 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and special administrative regions in China, we estimated exposure to air pollution, including ambient particulate matter pollution (defined as the annual gridded concentration of PM2·5), household air pollution (defined as the percentage of households using solid cooking fuels and the corresponding exposure to PM2·5), and ozone pollution (defined as average gridded ozone concentrations). We used the methods of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 to estimate deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to air pollution, and what the life expectancy would have been if air pollution levels had been less than the minimum level causing health loss. FINDINGS: The average annual population-weighted PM2·5 exposure in China was 52·7 µg/m3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 41·0-62·8) in 2017, which is 9% lower than in 1990 (57·8 µg/m3, 45·0-67·0). We estimated that 1·24 million (95% UI 1·08-1·40) deaths in China were attributable to air pollution in 2017, including 851 660 (712 002-990 271) from ambient PM2·5 pollution, 271 089 (209 882-346 561) from household air pollution from solid fuels, and 178 187 (67 650-286 229) from ambient ozone pollution. The age-standardised DALY rate attributable to air pollution was 1513·1 per 100 000 in China in 2017, and was higher in males (1839·8 per 100 000) than in females (1198·3 per 100 000). The age-standardised death rate attributable to air pollution decreased by 60·6% (55·7-63·7) for China overall between 1990 and 2017, driven by an 85·4% (83·2-87·3) decline in household air pollution and a 12·0% (1·4-22·1) decline in ambient PM2·5 pollution. 40·0% of DALYs for COPD were attributable to air pollution, as were 35·6% of DALYs for lower respiratory infections, 26·1% for diabetes, 25·8% for lung cancer, 19·5% for ischaemic heart disease, and 12·8% for stroke. We estimated that if the air pollution level in China was below the minimum causing health loss, the average life expectancy would have been 1·25 years greater. The DALY rate per 100 000 attributable to air pollution varied across provinces, ranging from 482·3 (371·1-604·1) in Hong Kong to 1725·6 (720·4-2653·1) in Xinjiang for ambient pollution, and from 18·7 (9·1-34·0) in Shanghai to 1804·5 (1339·5-2270·1) in Tibet for household pollution. Although the overall mortality attributable to air pollution decreased in China between 1990 and 2017, 12 provinces showed an increasing trend during the past 27 years. INTERPRETATION: Pollution from ambient PM2·5 and household burning of solid fuels decreased markedly in recent years in China, after extensive efforts to control emissions. However, PM2·5 concentrations still exceed the WHO Air Quality Guideline for the entire population of China, with 81% living in regions exceeding the WHO Interim Target 1, and air pollution remains an important risk factor. Sustainable development policies should be implemented and enforced to reduce the impact of air pollution on long-term economic development and population health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and China National Key Research and Development Program.

Identification of Racial Inequities in Access to Specialized Inpatient Heart Failure Care at an Academic Medical Center.

BACKGROUND: Racial inequities for patients with heart failure (HF) have been widely documented. HF patients who receive cardiology care during a hospital admission have better outcomes. It is unknown whether there are differences in admission to a cardiology or general medicine service by race. This study examined the relationship between race and admission service, and its effect on 30-day readmission and mortality Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study from September 2008 to November 2017 at a single large urban academic referral center of all patients self-referred to the emergency department and admitted to either the cardiology or general medicine service with a principal diagnosis of HF, who self-identified as white, black, or Latinx. We used multivariable generalized estimating equation models to assess the relationship between race and admission to the cardiology service. We used Cox regression to assess the association between race, admission service, and 30-day readmission and mortality. RESULTS: Among 1967 unique patients (66.7% white, 23.6% black, and 9.7% Latinx), black and Latinx patients had lower rates of admission to the cardiology service than white patients (adjusted rate ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.84-0.98, for black; adjusted rate ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.97 for Latinx). Female sex and age >75 years were also independently associated with lower rates of admission to the cardiology service. Admission to the cardiology service was independently associated with decreased readmission within 30 days, independent of race. CONCLUSIONS: Black and Latinx patients were less likely to be admitted to cardiology for HF care. This inequity may, in part, drive racial inequities in HF outcomes.

Air pollution: the emergence of a major global health risk factor.

Air pollution is now recognized by governments, international institutions and civil society as a major global public health risk factor. This is the result of the remarkable growth of scientific knowledge enabled by advances in epidemiology and exposure assessment. There is now a broad scientific consensus that exposure to air pollution increases mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular and respiratory disease and lung cancer and shortens life expectancy. Although air pollution has markedly declined in high-income countries, it was still responsible for some 4.9 million deaths in 2017, largely in low- and middle-income countries, where air pollution has increased over the past 25 y. As governments act to reduce air pollution there is a continuing need for research to strengthen the evidence on disease risk at very low and very high levels of air pollution, identify the air pollution sources most responsible for disease burden and assess the public health effectiveness of actions taken to improve air quality.

Association between an increase in blood urea nitrogen at 24 hours and worse outcomes in acute nonvariceal upper GI bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: An increase in blood urea nitrogen (BUN) at 24 hours is a solitary and significant predictor of mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis, which may predict worse outcomes in the similarly resuscitation-requiring condition of acute nonvariceal upper GI bleeding (UGIB). The aim of our study was to assess whether an increase in BUN at 24 hours is predictive of worse clinical outcomes in acute nonvariceal UGIB. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study including patients admitted to an academic hospital from 2004 to 2014 was conducted. An increase in BUN was defined as an increase in BUN at 24 hours of hospitalization compared with BUN at presentation. The primary outcome was a composite of inpatient death, inpatient rebleeding, need for surgical or radiologic intervention, or endoscopic reintervention. Associations between BUN change and outcomes were assessed via the Pearson χ2 test and the Fisher exact test and via logistic regression for adjusted analyses. RESULTS: There were 357 patients included in the analysis with a mean age of 64 years; 54% were men. The mean change in BUN was -10.1 mg/dL (standard deviation, 12.7 mg/dL). Patients with an increased BUN (n = 37 [10%]) were significantly more likely to experience the composite outcome (22% vs 9%, P = .014), including an increased risk of inpatient death (8% vs 1%, P = .004), compared with patients with a decreased or unchanged BUN (n = 320 [90%]). In a logistic regression model adjusting for the AIMS65 score, an increase in BUN was independently associated with an increased risk for the composite outcome (odds ratio, 2.75; P = .026). CONCLUSION: Increasing BUN at 24 hours likely reflects under resuscitation and is a predictor of worse outcomes in patients with acute nonvariceal UGIB.

Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. METHODS: We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 µm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure-response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure-response functions spanning the global range of exposure. FINDINGS: Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000-422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. INTERPRETATION: Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.

Timing of upper endoscopy influences outcomes in patients with acute nonvariceal upper GI bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Current guidelines advise that upper endoscopy be performed within 24 hours of presentation in patients with acute nonvariceal upper GI bleeding (UGIB). However, the role of urgent endoscopy (<12 hours) is controversial. Our aim was to assess whether patients admitted with acute nonvariceal UGIB with lower-risk versus high-risk bleeding have different outcomes with urgent compared with nonurgent endoscopy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients admitted to an academic hospital with nonvariceal UGIB. The primary outcome was a composite of inpatient death from any cause, inpatient rebleeding, need for surgical or interventional radiologic intervention, or endoscopic reintervention. The Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) was calculated; lower risk was defined as a GBS < 12, and high risk was defined as a GBS ≥ 12. RESULTS: Of 361 patients, 37 patients (10%) experienced the primary outcome. Patients who underwent urgent endoscopy had a greater than 5-fold increased risk of reaching the composite outcome (unadjusted odds ratio [OR], 5.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-11.4; P < .001). Lower-risk patients who were taken urgently to endoscopy were more likely to reach the composite outcome (adjusted OR, 0.71 per 6 hours; 95% CI, 0.55-0.91; P = .008). However, in the high-risk patients, time to endoscopy was not a significant predictor of the primary outcome (adjusted OR, 0.93 per 6 hours; 95% CI, 0.77-1.13; P = .47; adjusted P for interaction = .039). CONCLUSION: Urgent endoscopy is a predictor of worse outcomes in select patients with acute nonvariceal UGIB.

A Mammary-type Myofibroblastoma of the Prostate: A Case Report.

We report the case of a 51-year-old gentleman presenting with obstructive and irritative urinary symptoms, found to have a large prostate mass on imaging. A radical prostatectomy was performed and pathological diagnosis revealed a 12 cm mammary-type myofibroblastoma replacing the entire prostate. Mammary-type myofibroblastoma is a rare lesion outside of the breast, and is considered benign. This is the first reported case of a mammary-type myofibroblastoma occurring in the prostate.

Meta-Analysis Methods to Estimate the Shape and Uncertainty in the Association Between Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter and Cause-Specific Mortality Over the Global Concentration Range.

Estimates of excess mortality associated with exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter have been obtained from either a single cohort study or pooling information from a small number of studies. However, standard frequentist methods of pooling are known to underestimate statistical uncertainty in the true risk distribution when the number of studies pooled is small. Alternatively, Bayesian pooling methods using noninformative priors yield unrealistically large amounts of uncertainty in this case. We present a new hybrid frequentist-bayesian framework for meta-analysis that incorporates features of both frequentist and Bayesian approaches, yielding estimated uncertainty distributions that are more useful for burden estimation. We also present an example of mortality risk due to long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter obtained from a small number of cohort studies conducted in the United States and Europe. We compare our new risk uncertainty distribution to that obtained by the integrated exposure-response (IER) model used in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project for which risk was modeled over the entire global concentration range. We suggest a method to incorporate our new risk uncertainty distribution based on the relatively low concentrations observed in the United States and western Europe into the IER model, thus extending risk estimation to the global concentration range.