Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network.

Phenological responses to climate change frequently vary among trophic levels, which can result in increasing asynchrony between the peak energy requirements of consumers and the availability of resources. Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate change could cause the phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become desynchronized. Such heterogeneous shifts in food phenology could pose a challenge to migratory birds by reducing their opportunity for food availability along the migration path and consequently influencing their survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the condition of the heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology could cause a 12% loss of migration network integrity on average across all study species. Species that winter at relatively lower latitudes are subjected to a higher loss of integrity in their migration network. These findings highlight the susceptibility of migratory species to climate change. Our proposed methodological framework could be applied to migratory species in general to yield an accurate assessment of the exposure under climate change and help to identify actions for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate-related risks.

Social Familiarity and Spatially Variable Environments Independently Determine Reproductive Fitness in a Wild Bird.

AbstractThe social interactions that an individual experiences are a key component of its environment and can have important consequences for reproductive success. The dear enemy effect posits that having familiar neighbors at a territory boundary can reduce the need for territory defense and competition and potentially increase cooperation. Although fitness benefits of reproducing among familiar individuals are documented in many species, it remains unclear to what extent these relationships are driven by direct benefits of familiarity itself versus other socioecological covariates of familiarity. We use 58 years of great tit (Parus major) breeding data to disentangle the relationship between neighbor familiarity, partner familiarity, and reproductive success while simultaneously considering individual and spatiotemporal effects. We find that neighbor familiarity was positively associated with reproductive success for females but not males, while an individual's familiarity with their breeding partner was associated with fitness benefits for both sexes. There was strong spatial heterogeneity in all investigated fitness components, but our findings were robust and significant over and above these effects. Our analyses are consistent with direct effects of familiarity on individuals' fitness outcomes. These results suggest that social familiarity can yield direct fitness benefits, potentially driving the maintenance of long-term bonds and evolution of stable social systems.

Disentangling the causes of age-assortative mating in bird populations with contrasting life-history strategies.

Age shapes fundamental processes related to behaviour, survival and reproduction, where age influences reproductive success, non-random mating with respect to age can magnify or mitigate such effects. Consequently, the correlation in partners' age across a population may influence its productivity. Despite widespread evidence for age-assortative mating, little is known about what drives this assortment and its variation. Specifically, the relative importance of active (same-age mate preference) and passive processes (assortment as a consequence of other spatial or temporal effects) in driving age assortment is not well understood. In this paper, we compare breeding data from a great tit and mute swan population (51- and 31-year datasets, respectively) to tease apart the contributions of pair retention, cohort age structure and active age-related mate selection to age assortment in species with contrasting life histories. Both species show age-assortative mating and variable assortment between years. However, we demonstrate that the drivers of age assortment differ between the species, as expected from their life histories and resultant demographic differences. In great tits, pair fidelity has a weak effect on age-assortative mating through pair retention; variation in age assortment is primarily driven by fluctuations in age structure from variable juvenile recruitment. Age-assortative mating is, therefore, largely passive, with no evidence consistent with active age-related mate selection. In mute swans, age assortment is partly explained by pair retention, but not population age structure, and evidence exists for active age-assortative pairing. This difference is likely to result from shorter life-spans in great tits compared with mute swans, leading to fundamental differences in their population age structure, whereby a larger proportion of great tit populations consist of a single age cohort. In mute swans, age-assortative pairing through mate selection may also be driven by greater age-dependent variation in fitness. The study highlights the importance of considering how different life histories and demographic differences arising from these affect population processes that appear congruent across species. We suggest that future research should focus on uncovering the proximate mechanisms that lead to variation in active age-assortative mate selection (as seen in mute swans); and the consequences of variation in age structure on the ecological and social functioning of wild populations.

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines.

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Heterogeneous selection on exploration behavior within and among West European populations of a passerine bird.

Heterogeneous selection is often proposed as a key mechanism maintaining repeatable behavioral variation ("animal personality") in wild populations. Previous studies largely focused on temporal variation in selection within single populations. The relative importance of spatial versus temporal variation remains unexplored, despite these processes having distinct effects on local adaptation. Using data from >3,500 great tits (Parus major) and 35 nest box plots situated within five West-European populations monitored over 4 to 18 y, we show that selection on exploration behavior varies primarily spatially, across populations, and study plots within populations. Exploration was, simultaneously, selectively neutral in the average population and year. These findings imply that spatial variation in selection may represent a primary mechanism maintaining animal personalities, likely promoting the evolution of local adaptation, phenotype-dependent dispersal, and nonrandom settlement. Selection also varied within populations among years, which may counteract local adaptation. Our study underlines the importance of combining multiple spatiotemporal scales in the study of behavioral adaptation.

Exploring the causes and consequences of cooperative behaviour in wild animal populations using a social network approach.

Understanding why individuals carry out behaviours that benefit others, especially genetically unrelated others, has been a major undertaking in many fields and particularly in biology. Here, we focus on the cooperation literature from natural populations and present the benefits of a social network approach in terms of how it can help to identify and understand factors that influence the maintenance and spread of cooperation, but are not easily captured when solely considering independent dyadic interactions. We describe how various routes to cooperation can be tested within the social network framework. Applying the social network approach to data from natural populations can help to uncover the evolutionary and ecological pressures that lead to differences in cooperation and other social processes.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts.

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

The within-population variability of leaf spring and autumn phenology is influenced by temperature in temperate deciduous trees.

Leaf phenology is a major driver of ecosystem functioning in temperate forests and a robust indicator of climate change. Both the inter-annual and inter-population variability of leaf phenology have received much attention in the literature; in contrast, the within-population variability of leaf phenology has been far less studied. Beyond its impact on individual tree physiological processes, the within-population variability of leaf phenology can affect the estimation of the average budburst or leaf senescence dates at the population scale. Here, we monitored the progress of spring and autumn leaf phenology over 14 tree populations (9 tree species) in six European forests over the period of 2011 to 2018 (yielding 16 site-years of data for spring, 14 for autumn). We monitored 27 to 512 (with a median of 62) individuals per population. We quantified the within-population variability of leaf phenology as the standard deviation of the distribution of individual dates of budburst or leaf senescence (SDBBi and SDLSi, respectively). Given the natural variability of phenological dates occurring in our tree populations, we estimated from the data that a minimum sample size of 28 (resp. 23) individuals, are required to estimate SDBBi (resp. SDLSi) with a precision of 3 (resp. 7) days. The within-population of leaf senescence (average SDLSi = 8.5 days) was on average two times larger than for budburst (average SDBBi = 4.0 days). We evidenced that warmer temperature during the budburst period and a late average budburst date were associated with a lower SDBBi, as a result of a quicker spread of budburst in tree populations, with a strong species effect. Regarding autumn phenology, we observed that later senescence and warm temperatures during the senescence period were linked with a high SDLSi, with a strong species effect. The shares of variance explained by our models were modest suggesting that other factors likely influence the within-population variation in leaf phenology. For instance, a detailed analysis revealed that summer temperatures were negatively correlated with a lower SDLSi.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub.

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?

Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in the timing of life-history events. As a result, interactions between species can become disrupted, with potentially detrimental effects. Predicting these consequences has proven challenging. We apply structured population models to a well-characterised great tit-caterpillar model system and identify thresholds of temporal asynchrony, beyond which the predator population will rapidly go extinct. Our model suggests that phenotypic plasticity in predator breeding timing initially maintains temporal synchrony in the face of environmental change. However, under projections of climate change, predator plasticity was insufficient to keep pace with prey phenology. Directional evolution then accelerated, but could not prevent mismatch. Once predator phenology lagged behind prey by more than 24 days, rapid extinction was inevitable, despite previously stable population dynamics. Our projections suggest that current population stability could be masking a route to population collapse, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue.

Social learning of acoustic anti-predator cues occurs between wild bird species.

In many species, individuals gather information about their environment both through direct experience and through information obtained from others. Social learning, or the acquisition of information from others, can occur both within and between species and may facilitate the rapid spread of antipredator behaviour. Within birds, acoustic signals are frequently used to alert others to the presence of predators, and individuals can quickly learn to associate novel acoustic cues with predation risk. However, few studies have addressed whether such learning occurs only though direct experience or whether it has a social component, nor whether such learning can occur between species. We investigate these questions in two sympatric species of Parids: blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major). Using playbacks of unfamiliar bird vocalizations paired with a predator model in a controlled aviary setting, we find that blue tits can learn to associate a novel sound with predation risk via direct experience, and that antipredator response to the sound can be socially transmitted to heterospecific observers, despite lack of first-hand experience. Our results suggest that social learning of acoustic cues can occur between species. Such interspecific social information transmission may help to mediate the formation of mixed-species aggregations.

Cue identification in phenology: A case study of the predictive performance of current statistical tools.

Changes in the timing of life-history events (phenology) are a widespread consequence of climate change. Predicting population resilience requires knowledge of how phenology is likely to change over time, which can be gained by identifying the specific environmental cues that drive phenological events. Cue identification is often achieved with statistical testing of candidate cues. As the number of methods used to generate predictions increases, assessing the predictive accuracy of different approaches has become necessary. This study aims to (a) provide an empirical illustration of the predictive ability of five commonly applied statistical methods for cue identification (absolute and relative sliding time window analyses, penalized signal regression, climate sensitivity profiles and a growing degree-day model) and (b) discuss approaches for implementing cue identification methods in different systems. Using a dataset of mean clutch initiation timing in wild great tits (Parus major), we explored how the days of the year identified as most important, and the aggregate statistic identified as a cue, differed between statistical methods and with respect to the time span of data used. Each method's predictive capacity was tested using cross-validation and assessed for robustness to varying sample size. We show that the identified critical time window of cue sensitivity was consistent across four of the five methods. The accuracy and precision of predictions differed by method with penalized signal regression resulting in the most accurate and most precise predictions in our case. Accuracy was maximal for near-future predictions and showed a relationship with time. The difference between predictions and observations systematically shifted across the study from preceding observations to lagging. This temporal trend in prediction error suggests that the current statistical tools either fail to capture a key component of the cue-phenology relationship, or the relationship itself is changing through time in our system. These two influences need to be teased apart if we are to generate realistic predictions of phenological change. We recommend future phenological studies to challenge the idea of a static cue-phenology relationship and should cross-validate results across multiple time periods.

Personality shapes pair bonding in a wild bird social system.

Mated pair bonds are integral to many animal societies, yet how individual variation in behaviour influences their formation remains largely unknown. In a population of wild great tits (Parus major), we show that personality shapes pair bonding: proactive males formed stronger pre-breeding pair bonds by meeting their future partners sooner and increasing their relationship strength at a faster rate. As a result, proactive males sampled fewer potential mates. Thus, personality may have important implications for social relationship dynamics and emergent social structure.

Incubation behavior adjustments, driven by ambient temperature variation, improve synchrony between hatch dates and caterpillar peak in a wild bird population.

For organisms living in seasonal environments, synchronizing the peak energetic demands of reproduction with peak food availability is a key challenge. Understanding the extent to which animals can adjust behavior to optimize reproductive timing, and the cues they use to do this, is essential for predicting how they will respond to future climate change. In birds, the timing of peak energetic demand is largely determined by the timing of clutch initiation; however, considerable alterations can still occur once egg laying has begun. Here, we use a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to quantify individual variation in different aspects of incubation behavior (onset, duration, and daily intensity) and conduct a comprehensive assessment of the causes and consequences of this variation. Using a 54-year dataset, we demonstrate that timing of hatching relative to peak prey abundance (synchrony) is a better predictor of reproductive success than clutch initiation or clutch completion timing, suggesting adjustments to reproductive timing via incubation are adaptive in this species. Using detailed in-nest temperature recordings, we found that postlaying, birds improved their synchrony with the food peak primarily by varying the onset of incubation, with duration changes playing a lesser role. We then used a sliding time window approach to explore which spring temperature cues best predict variance in each aspect of incubation behavior. Variation in the onset of incubation correlated with mean temperatures just prior to laying; however, incubation duration could not be explained by any of our temperature variables. Daily incubation intensity varied in response to daily maximum temperatures throughout incubation, suggesting female great tits respond to temperature cues even in late stages of incubation. Our results suggest that multiple aspects of the breeding cycle influence the final timing of peak energetic demand. Such adjustments could compensate, in part, for poor initial timing, which has significant fitness impacts.

Recent natural selection causes adaptive evolution of an avian polygenic trait.

We used extensive data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major) in the United Kingdom and Netherlands to better understand how genetic signatures of selection translate into variation in fitness and phenotypes. We found that genomic regions under differential selection contained candidate genes for bill morphology and used genetic architecture analyses to confirm that these genes, especially the collagen gene COL4A5, explained variation in bill length. COL4A5 variation was associated with reproductive success, which, combined with spatiotemporal patterns of bill length, suggested ongoing selection for longer bills in the United Kingdom. Last, bill length and COL4A5 variation were associated with usage of feeders, suggesting that longer bills may have evolved in the United Kingdom as a response to supplementary feeding.

Male great tits assort by personality during the breeding season.

Animal personalities can influence social interactions among individuals, and thus have major implications for population processes and structure. Few studies have investigated the significance of the social context of animal personalities, and such research has largely focused on the social organization of nonterritorial populations. Here we address the question of whether exploratory behaviour, a well-studied personality trait, is related to the social structure of a wild great tit, Parus major, population during the breeding season. We assayed the exploration behaviour of wild-caught great tits and then established the phenotypic spatial structure of the population over six consecutive breeding seasons. Network analyses of breeding proximity revealed that males, but not females, show positive assortment by behavioural phenotype, with males breeding closer to those of similar personalities. This assortment was detected when we used networks based on nearest neighbours, but not when we used the Thiessen polygon method where neighbours were defined from inferred territory boundaries. Further analysis found no relationship between personality assortment and local environmental conditions, suggesting that social processes may be more important than environmental variation in influencing male territory choice. This social organization during the breeding season has implications for the strength and direction of both natural and sexual selection on personality in wild animal populations.

The shifting phenological landscape: Within- and between-species variation in leaf emergence in a mixed-deciduous woodland.

Many organisms rely on synchronizing the timing of their life-history events with those of other trophic levels-known as phenological matching-for survival or successful reproduction. In temperate deciduous forests, the extent of matching with the budburst date of key tree species is of particular relevance for many herbivorous insects and, in turn, insectivorous birds. In order to understand the ecological and evolutionary forces operating in these systems, we require knowledge of the factors influencing leaf emergence of tree communities. However, little is known about how phenology at the level of individual trees varies across landscapes, or how consistent this spatial variation is between different tree species. Here, we use field observations, collected over 2 years, to characterize within- and between-species differences in spring phenology for 825 trees of six species (Quercus robur, Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica, Betula pendula, Corylus avellana, and Acer pseudoplatanus) in a 385-ha woodland. We explore environmental predictors of individual variation in budburst date and bud development rate and establish how these phenological traits vary over space. Trees of all species showed markedly consistent individual differences in their budburst timing. Bud development rate also varied considerably between individuals and was repeatable in oak, beech, and sycamore. We identified multiple predictors of budburst date including altitude, local temperature, and soil type, but none were universal across species. Furthermore, we found no evidence for interspecific covariance of phenology over space within the woodland. These analyses suggest that phenological landscapes are highly complex, varying over small spatial scales both within and between species. Such spatial variation in vegetation phenology is likely to influence patterns of selection on phenology within populations of consumers. Knowledge of the factors shaping the phenological environments experienced by animals is therefore likely to be key in understanding how these evolutionary processes operate.

To graze or gorge: consistency and flexibility of individual foraging tactics in tits.

An individual's foraging behaviour and time allocated to feeding have direct consequences for its fitness. Despite much research on population-level foraging decisions, few studies have investigated individual differences in fine-scale daily foraging patterns among wild animals. Here, we explore the consistency and plasticity of feeding tactics of individual great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), using a grid of 65 automated feeding stations in a 385-ha woodland, during three winters. We use a principal component analysis to describe individual variation in six feeding parameters and examine how these differences covary with dominance-linked attributes (species, age and sex), the personality trait 'exploration behaviour', distance to territory and local competition intensity. Analysis of 933 086 feeder visits by 3134 individuals revealed that the majority of variation in the timing of feeding was explained by two principal components. PC1 ('binge-eating'), accounting for 38% of variation, captured temporal clustering of feeding, with high repeatability both within and between years (r range: 0·42-0·55). PC2 ('transience'), accounting for 27% of variance, described how much individuals used feeders and was also repeatable (r: 0·34-0·62). While exhibiting consistent individual differences, birds also showed flexibility in foraging patterns, binge-eating less and using feeders more when they experienced greater local competition. Individuals in behaviourally dominant states (great tits, males and adults) binged more than subordinate birds (blue tits, females and juveniles) when their territories were distant from feeding stations. Moreover, great tits and males used feeders more than blue tits and females respectively, while birds feeding further from their territory used feeders less than those feeding closer. 'Exploration behaviour' was unrelated to both measures of daily foraging behaviour. This study presents some of the first evidence that birds use consistent alternative foraging tactics at a fine temporal scale. Individuals are consistent in their tactics, and also adjust their foraging behaviour with changes in local competition. Hence, studies of foraging behaviour should consider the extent to which such individual-level variability in foraging behaviour is under selection.

Environmental and genetic determinants of innovativeness in a natural population of birds.

Much of the evidence for the idea that individuals differ in their propensity to innovate and solve new problems has come from studies on captive primates. Increasingly, behavioural ecologists are studying innovativeness in wild populations, and uncovering links with functional behaviour and fitness-related traits. The relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving this variation, however, remains unknown. Here, we present the results of the first large-scale study to examine a range of causal factors underlying innovative problem-solving performance (PSP) among 831 great tits (Parus major) temporarily taken into captivity. Analyses show that PSP in this population: (i) was linked to a variety of individual factors, including age, personality and natal origin (immigrant or local-born); (ii) was influenced by natal environment, because individuals had a lower PSP when born in poor-quality habitat, or where local population density was high, leading to cohort effects. Links with many of the individual and environmental factors were present only in some years. In addition, PSP (iii) had little or no measurable heritability, as estimated by a Bayesian animal model; and (iv) was not influenced by maternal effects. Despite previous reports of links between PSP and a range of functional traits in this population, the analyses here suggest that innovativeness had weak if any evolutionary potential. Instead most individual variation was caused by phenotypic plasticity driven by links with other behavioural traits and by environmentally mediated developmental stress. Heritability estimates are population, time and context specific, however, and more studies are needed to determine the generality of these effects. Our results shed light on the causes of innovativeness within populations, and add to the debate on the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors in driving phenotypic variation within populations.