Review state-of-the-art of output-based methodological approaches for substantiating freedom from infection.

A wide variety of control and surveillance programmes that are designed and implemented based on country-specific conditions exists for infectious cattle diseases that are not regulated. This heterogeneity renders difficult the comparison of probabilities of freedom from infection estimated from collected surveillance data. The objectives of this review were to outline the methodological and epidemiological considerations for the estimation of probabilities of freedom from infection from surveillance information and review state-of-the-art methods estimating the probabilities of freedom from infection from heterogeneous surveillance data. Substantiating freedom from infection consists in quantifying the evidence of absence from the absence of evidence. The quantification usually consists in estimating the probability of observing no positive test result, in a given sample, assuming that the infection is present at a chosen (low) prevalence, called the design prevalence. The usual surveillance outputs are the sensitivity of surveillance and the probability of freedom from infection. A variety of factors influencing the choice of a method are presented; disease prevalence context, performance of the tests used, risk factors of infection, structure of the surveillance programme and frequency of testing. The existing methods for estimating the probability of freedom from infection are scenario trees, Bayesian belief networks, simulation methods, Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model. Scenario trees analysis is the current reference method for proving freedom from infection and is widely used in countries that claim freedom. Bayesian belief networks and simulation methods are considered extensions of scenario trees. They can be applied to more complex surveillance schemes and represent complex infection dynamics. Bayesian prevalence estimation methods and the STOC free model allow freedom from infection estimation at the herd-level from longitudinal surveillance data, considering risk factor information and the structure of the population. Comparison of surveillance outputs from heterogeneous surveillance programmes for estimating the probability of freedom from infection is a difficult task. This paper is a 'guide towards substantiating freedom from infection' that describes both all assumptions-limitations and available methods that can be applied in different settings.

Questionnaire study suggests grave consequences of infectious laryngotracheitis, infectious coryza and mycoplasmosis in small chicken flocks.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of people in western countries keep small chicken flocks. In Sweden, respiratory disease is a common necropsy finding in chickens from such flocks. A respiratory real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) panel was applied to detect infectious laryngotracheitis virus (ILTV), Avibacterium paragallinarum (A. paragallinarum) and Mycoplasma gallisepticum (M. gallisepticum) in chickens from small flocks which underwent necropsy in 2017-2019 and had respiratory lesions. Owners (N = 100) of PCR-positive flocks were invited to reply to a web-based questionnaire about husbandry, outbreak characteristics and management. RESULTS: Response rate was 61.0%. The flocks were from 18 out of Sweden's 21 counties indicating that respiratory infections in small chicken flocks are geographically widespread in Sweden. Among participating flocks, 77.0% were coinfected by 2-3 pathogens; 91.8% tested positive for A. paragallinarum, 57.4% for M. gallisepticum and 50.8% for ILTV. Larger flock size and mixed-species flock structure were associated with PCR detection of M. gallisepticum (P = 0.00 and P = 0.02, respectively). Up to 50% mortality was reported by 63.9% of respondents. Euthanasia of some chickens was carried out in 86.9% of the flocks as a result of the outbreaks. Full clinical recovery was reported by 39.3% of owners suggesting chronic infection is a major challenge in infected flocks. Live birds had been introduced in many flocks prior to outbreaks, which suggested these as an important source of infection. Following the outbreaks, 36.1% replaced their flocks with new birds and 9.8% ceased keeping chickens. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the severity of respiratory outbreaks in small non-commercial chicken flocks and points to the need for more research and veterinary assistance to prevent and manage respiratory infections in small chicken flocks.

Can we use meat inspection data for animal health and welfare surveillance?

Ante- and post-mortem inspections at abattoir were originally introduced to provide assurance that animal carcasses were fit for human consumption. However, findings at meat inspection can also represent a valuable source of information for animal health and welfare surveillance. Yet, before making secondary use of meat inspection data, it is important to assess that the same post-mortem findings get registered in a consistent way among official meat inspectors across abattoirs, so that the results are as much independent as possible from the abattoir where the inspection is performed. The most frequent findings at official meat inspections of pigs and beef cattle in Sweden were evaluated by means of variance partitioning to quantify the amount of variation in the probabilities of these findings due to abattoir and farm levels. Seven years of data (2012-2018) from 19 abattoirs were included in the study. The results showed that there was a very low variation between abattoirs for presence of liver parasites and abscesses, moderately low variation for pneumonia and greatest variation for injuries and nonspecific findings (e.g., other lesions). This general pattern of variation was similar for both species and implies that some post-mortem findings are consistently detected and so are a valuable source of epidemiological information for surveillance purposes. However, for those findings associated with higher variation, calibration and training activities of meat inspection staff are necessary to enable correct conclusions about the occurrence of pathological findings and for producers to experience an equivalent likelihood of deduction in payment (independent of abattoir).

Long-term outcomes in dogs with elbow dysplasia, assessed using the canine orthopaedic index.

BACKGROUND: Elbow dysplasia (ED) is an important cause of lameness in dogs. This study aimed to report long-term outcomes in dogs with elbow osteoarthritis. METHODS: Demographic data, medical management, and scores from The American College of Veterinary Surgeons' Canine Orthopaedic Index (COI) were collected from owners of dogs radiographically screened for ED, graded as normal, mild, or moderate. Telephone interviews were performed in 2017 (Q1), followed by an email survey in 2020 (Q2). The association between ED grade and deterioration in COI scores over time was evaluated with logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 765 replies were collected for Q1 and 293 for Q2. At Q2, 222 dogs (76%) were alive, with a median age of 8 years (range 5-12 years). No association was found between ED and changes in COI score over time or between ED and survival (p = 0.071). Dogs with mild and moderate ED were treated with analgesic medications to a higher degree than dogs without ED (p < 0.05). LIMITATIONS: Only owner-assed data were assessed; no clinical orthopaedic examination or follow-up radiographic evaluation was performed. CONCLUSIONS: No association was found between the grade of ED and the worsening of clinical signs in dogs with elbow osteoarthritis.

Data workflows and visualization in support of surveillance practice.

The Swedish National Veterinary Institute (SVA) is working on implementing reusable and adaptable workflows for epidemiological analysis and dynamic report generation to improve disease surveillance. Important components of this work include: data access, development environment, computational resources and cloud-based management. The development environment relies on Git for code collaboration and version control and the R language for statistical computing and data visualization. The computational resources include both local and cloud-based systems, with automatic workflows managed in the cloud. The workflows are designed to be flexible and adaptable to changing data sources and stakeholder demands, with the ultimate goal to create a robust infrastructure for the delivery of actionable epidemiological information.

Stochastic partial budget analysis of strategies to reduce the prevalence of lung lesions in finishing pigs at slaughter.

Ante- and post-mortem inspections of food-producing animals at slaughter are mandatory activities carried out in many countries to ensure public health, animal health, and meat quality. In finishing pigs, lung lesions are the most frequent defects found in meat inspections. It is possible to implement managerial strategies on-farm to reduce the occurrence and spread of respiratory diseases, but such strategies come with additional costs that could impede implementation. This study assessed the economic impact of two strategies aimed at reducing the prevalence of lung lesions in finishing pigs at slaughter by improving the health conditions of the animals during the production cycle. First, a farrow-to-finish pig farm with 355 sows was modeled based on the current standard practice for finishing pig production in Sweden, using economic data, meat inspection data and biological variables from the literature and expert opinions. A partial budget analysis was then performed in which the baseline farm was compared with two hypothetical strategies aimed at reducing the occurrence and spread of respiratory diseases during pig production: (S1) avoiding mixing of litters after weaning and (S2) keeping purchased pregnant gilts separated from sows during gestation, farrowing and lactation. Both these strategies intended to reduce the occurrence of respiratory disease in finishing pigs at slaughter gave an average gain in annual net income (33,805 SEK in S1 and 173,160 SEK in S2, equal to 3,146€ and 16,113€, respectively, at the time of analysis), indicating that both were economically sustainable under the assumed conditions. The impact analysis of the two strategies revealed that the reduced prevalence of lung lesions when adopting one of the strategies was the most influential factor in net benefit change on the farm. Overall, the results suggest that with the increasing prevalence of lung lesions in Swedish pig production (as also observed worldwide in recent years), adopting an effective strategy to decrease respiratory infections will become more relevant and economically beneficial.

Non-lethal sampling for the detection of Renibacterium salmoninarum by qPCR for diagnosis of bacterial kidney disease.

Bacterial kidney disease (BKD), caused by Renibacterium salmoninarum (Rs), can be transmitted both horizontally and vertically and there is no available cure or prophylaxis. The control of BKD requires continuous surveillance, which is challenging in aquaculture as well as in programs for conservation and restoration of salmonid fish strains. BKD is a notifiable disease in Sweden and is monitored through the mandatory health control program using a polyclonal ELISA for detection of the Rs p57 protein in kidney. Fish must be killed for sampling, an obvious disadvantage especially regarding valuable broodfish. The present study shows that gill-/cloacal swabs collected in vivo for real-time PCR (qPCRgc ), allow a sensitive and specific detection of Rs. The sensitivity of qPCRgc was estimated to 97.8% (credible interval (ci) 93.8%-100%) compared to 98.3% (ci 92.7%-100%) and 48.8% (ci 38.8%-58.8%) of kidney samples for qPCR (qPCRk ) and ELISA (ELISAk ) respectively, by use of the Bayesian Latent Class Analysis (BLCA). Since the goal of the program is eradication of BKD the most sensitive test is preferrable. Using qPCRgc instead of ELISAk will result in a lower false negative rate and can be useful for surveillance in aquaculture and in breeding programs with valuable fish. However, a higher false positive rate warrants confirmatory lethal testing before a previously Rs negative farm is subject to restrictions.

Long-Term Prognosis of Quality of Life in Dogs Diagnosed With Mild to Moderate Elbow Dysplasia in Sweden.

Objective: The objective of this study was to increase knowledge regarding long-term prognosis of mild to moderate elbow dysplasia (ED) using a canine orthopedic index. Study Design: Cross-sectional observational study. Sample Population: Sixty dogs randomly selected from each of five different breeds and three ED groups: ED0 (control), ED1, and ED2, based on the Kennel Club's screening results. The total number of selected dogs was 900 (60*5*3). Methods: Questionnaires were administered to owners by telephone interview. Bayesian network modeling was used to assess the relation between ED grade, treatment options, dog demographics, and quality-of-life indicators. Results: Seven hundred sixty-five questionnaires were collected (85% response rate), of which 61 concerned dogs euthanized due to osteoarthritis. There was no direct association between ED grade and owner's perceived quality of life, but ED1 and ED2 dogs were more likely to receive veterinary care and subsequent NSAID treatment compared to ED0 dogs. A significant association was found between the occurrence of euthanasia due to orthopedic disease and ED scores 1 and 2 in the sample (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The degree of osteoarthritis was not directly associated with the canine orthopedic index, except for ED2 and lameness score. It can be speculated that owners who paid closer attention to orthopedic symptoms and perceived them as impairing their dogs' lives were also more likely to seek veterinary care and get treatment, irrespective of the ED grading. Impact: ED1-graded dogs had a lower risk than might be expected to develop visible clinical symptoms and showed a similar quality of life as dogs with ED0. ED2-graded dogs were more likely than ED0-graded dogs to have their lives impaired by lameness, according to the owners' perception.

Biosecurity risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) virus infection in duck farms, France.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N8 outbreaks occurred in poultry farms in France in 2016-2017, resulting in significant economic losses and disruption to the poultry industry. Current evidence on associations between actual on-farm biosecurity risk factors and H5N8 occurrence is limited. Therefore, a retrospective matched case-control study was undertaken to investigate the inter-relationships between on-farm biosecurity practices and H5N8 infection status to provide new insights regarding promising targets for intervention. Data were collected on 133 case and 133 control duck farms (i.e. the most affected species) located in one area of the country that was mostly affected by the disease. Data were analysed using Additive Bayesian Networks which offer a rich modelling framework by graphically illustrating the dependencies between variables. Factors indirectly and directly positively associated with farm infection were inadequate management of vehicle movements (odds ratio [OR] 9.3, 95% credible interval [CI] 4.0-22.8) and inadequate delimitation of farm and units (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6-5.8), respectively. Inadequate disposal of dead birds was instead negatively associated with the outcome (OR 0.1, 95% CI 0.0-0.3). The findings highlight that reinforcing farm access control systems and reducing the number of visitors are key biosecurity measures to control farm vulnerability to H5N8 infection and could help setting priorities in biosecurity practices to prevent outbreaks' re-occurrence.

Cross-Validation of Generic Risk Assessment Tools for Animal Disease Incursion Based on a Case Study for African Swine Fever.

In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclusions on the ASF risk were similar across the generic RA tools, despite differences observed in calculated risks. Hence, it was concluded that the cross-validation contributed to the credibility of their results.

Development of Reporting Guidelines for Animal Health Surveillance-AHSURED.

With the current trend in animal health surveillance toward risk-based designs and a gradual transition to output-based standards, greater flexibility in surveillance design is both required and allowed. However, the increase in flexibility requires more transparency regarding surveillance, its activities, design and implementation. Such transparency allows stakeholders, trade partners, decision-makers and risk assessors to accurately interpret the validity of the surveillance outcomes. This paper presents the first version of the Animal Health Surveillance Reporting Guidelines (AHSURED) and the process by which they have been developed. The goal of AHSURED was to produce a set of reporting guidelines that supports communication of surveillance activities in the form of narrative descriptions. Reporting guidelines come from the field of evidence-based medicine and their aim is to improve consistency and quality of information reported in scientific journals. They usually consist of a checklist of items to be reported, a description/definition of each item, and an explanation and elaboration document. Examples of well-reported items are frequently provided. Additionally, it is common to make available a website where the guidelines are documented and maintained. This first version of the AHSURED guidelines consists of a checklist of 40 items organized in 11 sections (i.e., surveillance system building blocks), which is available as a wiki at https://github.com/SVA-SE/AHSURED/wiki. The choice of a wiki format will allow for further inputs from surveillance experts who were not involved in the earlier stages of development. This will promote an up-to-date refined guideline document.

Revealing the structure of the associations between housing system, facilities, management and welfare of commercial laying hens using Additive Bayesian Networks.

After the ban of battery cages in 1988, a welfare control programme for laying hens was developed in Sweden. Its goal was to monitor and ensure that animal welfare was not negatively affected by the new housing systems. The present observational study provides an overview of the current welfare status of commercial layer flocks in Sweden and explores the complexity of welfare aspects by investigating and interpreting the inter-relationships between housing system, production type (i.e. organic or conventional), facilities, management and animal welfare indicators. For this purpose, a machine learning procedure referred to as structure discovery was applied to data collected through the welfare programme during 2010-2014 in 397 flocks housed in 193 different farms. Seventeen variables were fitted to an Additive Bayesian Network model. The optimal model was identified by an exhaustive search of the data iterated across incremental parent limits, accounting for prior knowledge about causality, potential over-dispersion and clustering. The resulting Directed Acyclic Graph shows the inter-relationships among the variables. The animal-based welfare indicators included in this study - flock mortality, feather condition and mite infestation - were indirectly associated with each other. Of these, severe mite infestations were rare (4% of inspected flocks) and mortality was below the acceptable threshold (< 0.6%). Feather condition scored unsatisfactory in 21% of the inspected flocks; however, it seemed to be only associated to the age of the flock, ruling out any direct connection with managerial and housing variables. The environment-based welfare indicators - lighting and air quality - were an issue in 5 and 8% of the flocks, respectively, and showed a complex inter-relationship with several managerial and housing variables leaving room for several options for intervention. Additive Bayesian Network modelling outlined graphically the underlying process that generated the observed data. In contrast to ordinary regression, it aimed at accounting for conditional independency among variables, facilitating causal interpretation.

Avian influenza epidemiology in semi-intensive free ranging duck flocks of the Moyingyi Wetland in Bago East District, Myanmar.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 first entered Myanmar in 2006 in the Mandalay District. Several H5N1 outbreaks followed and the one of Bago East District (2007) required post outbreak surveillance in the at-risk domestic duck population of the Moyingyi Wetland. A field epidemiological study based on a randomised prospective stratified study with five surveys provided the serological evidence that the avian influenza H5 subtype circulates in the domestic duck population and spreads to almost all the newly housed (and negative) flocks in the time span of a seasonal production cycle. Virological investigation was negative. The survival analysis showed that the probability of seroconversion increased rapidly over the study period, without significant difference among different agro-ecosystems. The analysis suggests that viral spread in the new cycle could be limited if control measures were adopted at the time new flocks are housed. The study recommends that future surveillance schemes for ducks are designed in a way to get as much information as possible from serological results which should drive virological sampling to determined farms.

Prevalence of helminth and coccidian parasites in Swedish outdoor cats and the first report of Aelurostrongylus abstrusus in Sweden: a coprological investigation.

BACKGROUND: This study was performed in order to gather recent epidemiological data on feline endoparasites in Swedish cats. Faecal samples from 205 outdoor cats were collected by their owners and submitted to the National Veterinary Institute for analysis. The study population was comprised of cats with access to an outdoor environment and with no history of anthelmintic treatment within the last 3 months. Intestinal parasites were detected with a centrifugal flotation technique and Baermann larval sedimentation was performed to detect metastrongylid lungworms. Eggs, larvae and oocysts were identified morphologically by microscopic examination. The following information was collected from cat owners: breed, sex, age, anthelminthic medication last used, observation of cestode proglottids and residential address. RESULTS: Endoparasites were detected in 25% of samples. Eggs of Toxocara cati were found in 21% of samples, followed by taeniid eggs (4%), oocysts of Cystoisospora felis/C. rivolta and capillarid eggs (both 1%). One cat tested positive for Toxoplasma gondii-like oocysts. Larvae of Aelurostrongylus abstrusus were detected in one cat, which is the first published observation of this parasite in Sweden. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of intestinal parasites is rather high in outdoor cats in Sweden, which could indicate the need for more intensive deworming routines in the population. Clinical practitioners should be aware of the possible occurence of A. abstrusus in Swedish cats when considering potential causes of respiratory problems in cats in the future.

Detection of Echinococcus multilocularis by MC-PCR: evaluation of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity without gold standard.

INTRODUCTION: A semi-automated magnetic capture probe-based DNA extraction and real-time PCR method (MC-PCR), allowing for a more efficient large-scale surveillance of Echinococcus multilocularis occurrence, has been developed. The test sensitivity has previously been evaluated using the sedimentation and counting technique (SCT) as a gold standard. However, as the sensitivity of the SCT is not 1, test characteristics of the MC-PCR was also evaluated using latent class analysis, a methodology not requiring a gold standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Test results, MC-PCR and SCT, from a previous evaluation of the MC-PCR using 177 foxes shot in the spring (n=108) and autumn 2012 (n=69) in high prevalence areas in Switzerland were used. Latent class analysis was used to estimate the test characteristics of the MC-PCR. Although it is not the primary aim of this study, estimates of the test characteristics of the SCT were also obtained. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: This study showed that the sensitivity of the MC-PCR was 0.88 [95% posterior credible interval (PCI) 0.80-0.93], which was not significantly different than the SCT, 0.83 (95% PCI 0.76-0.88), which is currently considered as the gold standard. The specificity of both tests was high, 0.98 (95% PCI 0.94-0.99) for the MC-PCR and 0.99 (95% PCI 0.99-1) for the SCT. In a previous study, using fox scats from a low prevalence area, the specificity of the MC-PCR was higher, 0.999% (95% PCI 0.997-1). One reason for the lower estimate of the specificity in this study could be that the MC-PCR detects DNA from infected but non-infectious rodents eaten by foxes. When using MC-PCR in low prevalence areas or areas free from the parasite, a positive result in the MC-PCR should be regarded as a true positive. CONCLUSION: The sensitivity of the MC-PCR (0.88) was comparable to the sensitivity of SCT (0.83).

Serological diagnosis of avian influenza in poultry: is the haemagglutination inhibition test really the 'gold standard'?

BACKGROUND: The serological diagnosis of avian influenza (AI) can be performed using different methods, yet the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test is considered the 'gold standard' for AI antibody subtyping. Although alternative diagnostic assays have been developed, in most cases, their accuracy has been evaluated in comparison with HI test results, whose performance for poultry has not been properly evaluated. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate the diagnostic sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the HI test and six other diagnostic assays for the detection of AI antibodies without assuming a gold standard. METHODS: We applied a Bayesian version of latent class analysis to compare the results of multiple tests from different study settings reported in the literature. RESULTS: The results showed that the HI test has nearly perfect accuracy (i.e. 98·8% sensitivity and 99·5% specificity). It performed well in both chickens and turkeys and yet was less accurate in experimentally infected poultry, compared to naturally infected. Blocking ELISA and the indirect immunofluorescence assay also performed very well. CONCLUSIONS: Given its very high Se and Sp, the HI test may be effectively considered a gold standard. In the framework of LPAI surveillance, where large numbers of samples have to be processed, the blocking ELISA could be a valid alternative to the HI test, in that it is almost as sensitive and specific as the HI test yet quicker and easier to automate.

Evaluating surveillance strategies for the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza infections.

In recent years, the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in poultry has become increasingly important, given their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. However, evaluations of LPAI surveillance have mainly focused on prevalence and not on the ability to act as an early warning system. We used a simulation model based on data from Italian LPAI epidemics in turkeys to evaluate different surveillance strategies in terms of their performance as early warning systems. The strategies differed in terms of sample size, sampling frequency, diagnostic tests, and whether or not active surveillance (i.e., routine laboratory testing of farms) was performed, and were also tested under different epidemiological scenarios. We compared surveillance strategies by simulating within-farm outbreaks. The output measures were the proportion of infected farms that are detected and the farm reproduction number (R(h)). The first one provides an indication of the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect within-farm infections, whereas R(h) reflects the effectiveness of outbreak detection (i.e., if detection occurs soon enough to bring an epidemic under control). Increasing the sampling frequency was the most effective means of improving the timeliness of detection (i.e., it occurs earlier), whereas increasing the sample size increased the likelihood of detection. Surveillance was only effective in preventing an epidemic if actions were taken within two days of sampling. The strategies were not affected by the quality of the diagnostic test, although performing both serological and virological assays increased the sensitivity of active surveillance. Early detection of LPAI outbreaks in turkeys can be achieved by increasing the sampling frequency for active surveillance, though very frequent sampling may not be sustainable in the long term. We suggest that, when no LPAI virus is circulating yet and there is a low risk of virus introduction, a less frequent sampling approach might be admitted, provided that the surveillance is intensified as soon as the first outbreak is detected.

Implementation of an information system for the traceability of live decoy birds.

In the Veneto region (northern Italy), some geographic areas in the Po Valley have a large concentration of industrial poultry farms and are located close to wet areas with high populations of wild waterfowl. Live decoy birds belonging to the orders of Anseriformes and Charadriiformes can constitute a "bridge" for avian influenza (AI) viruses between the wild reservoir and the rural holdings where live decoy birds are usually kept, sometimes together with poultry. Thus, the use of live decoy birds during bird hunting could increase the risk of exposure of poultry farms to AI viruses. Since 2008, this kind of hunting has been strictly regulated with regard to the detection and use of live decoy birds. In order to guarantee the application of appropriate AI risk-modulating and monitoring measures in the management of the live decoys according to the European Union (EU) provisions, a solid and well-structured information system has been created. The Regional Data Bank (RDB) of farms and livestock, which has been operating since 1997, also contains data on farms and poultry movements. Therefore, the RDB management software was updated to collect data from the hunters who keep live decoy birds, and specific functions were integrated to ensure the traceability of these birds. Each live decoy bird has been identified by an irremovable ring. The individual code of each ring is recorded in the RDB and linked to both the holder's code and the hunting area. Transfers and death/slaughtering of the registered birds are recorded, too. The activation of a computerized data collection system has proven to be a prerequisite for the implementation of a control system for live decoy birds and provides an essential tool for the management of AI emergencies.

Transmission dynamics of low pathogenicity avian influenza infections in Turkey flocks.

Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of H5 and H7 subtypes have the potential to mutate into highly pathogenic strains (HPAI), which can threaten human health and cause huge economic losses. The current knowledge on the mechanisms of mutation from LPAI to HPAI is insufficient for predicting which H5 or H7 strains will mutate into an HPAI strain, and since the molecular changes necessary for the change in virulence seemingly occur at random, the probability of mutation depends on the number of virus replicates, which is associated with the number of birds that acquire infection. We estimated the transmission dynamics of LPAI viruses in turkeys using serosurveillance data from past epidemics in Italy. We fitted the proportions of birds infected in 36 flocks into a hierarchical model to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and possible variations in R(0) among flocks caused by differences among farms. We also estimated the distributions of the latent and infectious periods, using experimental infection data with outbreak strains. These were then combined with the R(0) to simulate LPAI outbreaks and characterise the resulting dynamics. The estimated mean within-flock R(0) in the population of infected flocks was 5.5, indicating that an infectious bird would infect an average of more than five susceptible birds. The results also indicate that the presence of seropositive birds does not necessarily mean that the virus has already been cleared and the flock is no longer infective, so that seropositive flocks may still constitute a risk of infection for other flocks. In light of these results, the enforcement of appropriate restrictions, the culling of seropositive flocks, or pre-emptive slaughtering may be useful. The model and parameter estimates presented in this paper provide the first complete picture of LPAI dynamics in turkey flocks and could be used for designing a suitable surveillance program.

Within-flock transmission of H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in turkeys during the Italian epidemic in 1999-2000.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses show different disease dynamics between virus strains and host species, and therefore epidemic field data are very valuable. This study used field data of the HPAI H7N1 epidemic which affected Northern Italy in 1999-2000. Field mortality data was back-calculated into a S-I-format to estimate the transmission rate parameter beta, indicating the number of birds infected per infectious bird per time unit. The bird-infectious period was assumed to be 2 days, and all birds were assumed to die after this infectious period. The estimated beta for HPAI H7N1 virus transmission in turkeys was 1.43 (95% CI: 1.17-1.74). Farm risk factors such as flock size and age of the turkeys did not influence the estimated transmission rate parameter.