Defining management strategies for acute severe ulcerative colitis using predictive models: a simulation-modeling study.

Background/Aims: Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy. Methods: This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months. Results: The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions. Conclusions: This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.

Safety and effectiveness of Janus kinase inhibitors in the management of inflammatory bowel disease following liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients with concurrent liver transplantation is challenging, and data regarding the safety and efficacy of Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors with anti-rejection medications are required. We report the experience of all liver transplant recipients receiving tofacitinib and/or upadacitinib for IBD across three states in Australia. METHODS: All liver transplant recipients from the Australian states of Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania who required tofacitinib or upadacitinib for the treatment of IBD were identified using prospectively maintained liver transplant databases. Patients were followed up until medication cessation or last follow up. Clinical safety and efficacy data were collected. RESULTS: Eight patients (median age 30 years) were included, seven of whom received first-line JAK inhibition with tofacitinib. All patients had failed one or more biologic therapies prior to commencing JAK inhibition, including six patients who had failed two or more agents. JAK inhibition was continued for a median of 17 months, with 143 patient-months of combined follow-up. The anti-rejection medication tacrolimus was prescribed in all patients. Overall, seven (88%) patients achieved clinical remission, including all three patients who were switched from tofacitinib to upadacitinib. One patient required colectomy after 1 month of treatment. There were no other cases of serious infection, venous thromboembolism or major adverse cardiovascular events during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: As the largest case series to-date, these data indicate that combining JAK inhibition with transplant anti-rejection medication may be a safe and clinically effective method of treating IBD in patients with prior biologic failure.

Effect of Concurrent Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease on Serial Non-invasive Fibrosis Markers in Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Concurrent hepatic steatosis has diverse effects on chronic hepatitis B (CHB), however the combined effects of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and CHB on liver fibrosis progression remains unclear. The primary aim of this study was to utilize serial fibrosis measurements to compare the dynamic change in fibrosis in CHB patients with/without concurrent MASLD. The secondary aim was to investigate factors associated with steatosis development and regression in CHB patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of all non-cirrhotic CHB patients identified from 1/1/2011 to 31/12/2016. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed by ultrasound. Fibrosis markers included liver stiffness (LSM) by transient elastography, APRI and FIB-4. General linear mixed effects modelling was used to fit polynomial and linear estimates. RESULTS: Of 810 CHB patients (n = 2,373 LSM measurements; median age 44.4y; 48% male; 24% HBeAg positive), 14% had concurrent MASLD. LSM was higher at baseline but decreased in MASLD patients over time, while LSM remained stable in non-MASLD patients, such that all patients had similar LSM beyond 4-5 years. MASLD patients had lower APRI compared to non-MASLD patients, which was predominately due to a higher platelet count and higher ALT over time. There was substantial discordance between LSM, APRI and FIB-4. Baseline BMI was the only factor that predicted steatosis development and regression. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of an association between concurrent MASLD and fibrosis progression amongst CHB patients without baseline advanced liver disease. APRI and FIB-4 may have reduced accuracy in MASLD patients.

Assessing quality of magnetic resonance enterography and its impact on disease assessment of ileal Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Assessment of quality of magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) in small bowel Crohn's disease (CD) activity evaluation has received little attention. We assessed the impact of bowel distention and motion artifact on MRE activity indices in ileal CD. METHODS: A cohort of patients who underwent contemporaneous MRE and colonoscopy for ileal CD assessment between 2014 and 2021 at 2 centers were audited. An abdominal radiologist blinded to clinical data reviewed each MRE, graded bowel distention and motion artifact upon a pre-specified 3-point scale and calculated the original magnetic resonance index of activity (MaRIA) and simplified MaRIA (sMaRIA), London index and CD MRE index (CDMI). Ileal endoscopic activity was graded via the Simplified Endoscopy Score for CD (SES-CD). The performance of MRE indices in discriminating active disease (SES-CD ≥3) stratified by MRE quality was measured by receiver operator characteristic analyses. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-seven patients had MRE and colonoscopy within a median of 16 days (range, 0-30 days) with 63 (46%) exhibiting active disease (SES-CD ≥3). Forty-four MREs (32%) were deemed low quality due to motion artifact and/or moderate to poor distention. Low-quality MREs demonstrated reduced discriminative performance between ileal SES-CD ≥3 and MRE indices (MaRIA 0.838 vs. 0.634, sMaRIA 0.834 vs. 0.527, CDMI 0.850 vs. 0.595, London 0.748 vs. 0.511, P<0.05 for all). Individually the presence of any motion artifact markedly impacted the discriminative performance (e.g., sMaRIA area under the curve 0.544 vs. 0.814, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Image quality parameters can significantly impact MRE disease activity interpretation. Quality metrics should be reported, enabling cautious interpretation in lower-quality studies.

Clinical trial: Combination allopurinol-thiopurine versus standard thiopurine in patients with IBD escalating to immunomodulators (the DECIDER study).

BACKGROUND: Thiopurines are established treatments for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), yet concerns remain regarding their safety. AIM: To evaluate the use of thiopurine-allopurinol combination therapy compared to standard thiopurine therapy in IBD. METHODS: We performed a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial to compare the efficacy and safety of thiopurine-allopurinol versus thiopurine with placebo for adults commencing a thiopurine for IBD. Patients had active disease at baseline; dosing of therapy was based on a pre-specified regimen and subsequent metabolites. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients achieving a composite of symptomatic disease activity remission (Harvey Bradshaw Index <5 for Crohn's disease, Simple Clinical Colitis Activity Index <4 for ulcerative colitis) and a faecal calprotectin <150 µg/g after 26 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: The trial was terminated early due to slow recruitment. We randomised 102 participants (54 thiopurine-allopurinol, 48 thiopurine with placebo) with similar age (median 42 vs 48 years) and sex distribution (46% women per group). A higher proportion achieved the primary outcome in the thiopurine-allopurinol group (50% vs 35%, p = 0.14) and fewer participants stopped their allocated therapy due to adverse events (11% vs 29%, p = 0.02). Also, within the thiopurine-allopurinol group, thiopurine dose adjustments were less frequent (69% vs 92%, p = 0.03), a higher proportion achieved an early therapeutic 6-TGN level at week 6 (71% vs 53%, p = 0.19), and adverse events attributed to therapy were less frequent (15% vs 44%, p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Thiopurine-allopurinol therapy is safe and mitigates thiopurine adverse effects, thus enhancing tolerability without compromising efficacy (ACTRN12613001347752).

The Effect of Aspirin Use on Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma-An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

An increasing number of observational studies have described an association between aspirin use and a reduced risk of incident hepatocellular carcinoma. We performed this meta-analysis to provide a comprehensive and updated aggregate assessment of the effect of aspirin on HCC incidence. Two independent authors performed a systematic search of the literature, utilising the Medline, Embase, Scopus, and PubMed databases. A total of 16 studies (12 cohort studies, and 4 case-control studies) were selected for inclusion, with a large number of studies excluded, due to an overlapping study population. The pooled analysis of cohort studies involving a total population of approximately 2.5 million subjects, 822,680 aspirin users, and 20,626 HCC cases demonstrated a 30% reduced risk of HCC associated with aspirin use (adjusted HR 0.70, 95%CI 0.60-0.81). There was a similar but non-significant association observed across the case-control studies (adjusted OR 0.60, 95%CI 0.32-1.15, p = 0.13), which involved a total of 1961 HCC cases. In a subgroup meta-analysis of patients with cirrhosis, the relationship between aspirin use and incident HCC diminished to non-significance (adjusted HR 0.96, 95%CI 0.84-1.09). Aspirin use was associated with a statistically significant increase in bleeding events when all relevant studies were pooled together (adjusted HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.02-1.22). Prospectively collected data should be sought, to define the optimal patient group in which aspirin is safe and effective for the chemoprophylaxis of HCC.

Functional gastrointestinal disorders among healthcare professionals at a tertiary Australian hospital.

Background and Aim: The aim of this study was to determine the frequency, characteristics, and associations of functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGIDs) among healthcare professionals. Methods: A qualitative survey was conducted among the staff at a tertiary Australian hospital between January 2017 and June 2018. Rome III criteria (excluding endoscopic) were used to define FGID. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations. Results: Of the 274 respondents (17% doctors, 66% nurses, 17% others; 77% female), 54% had experienced GI symptoms ≥3 times per week and 23% were diagnosed with FGIDs (2% IBS, 19% FD, 2% both). GI symptoms were more common in females (58% vs. 38%), Caucasians versus Asians (59% vs. 35%), respondents who were easily (67% vs. 40%) or often stressed (58% vs. 37%), and had irregular working hours (62% vs. 46%, each P < 0.05). Independent predictors of GI symptoms included being easily stressed (OR 2.7) and female sex (OR 2.4), while Asian ethnicity was protective (OR 0.42, each P < 0.05). FGIDs were more prevalent in respondents who often felt stressed (27% vs. 10%), felt easily stressed (29% vs. 17%), and in nurses compared to others (27% vs. 16%; each P < 0.05). The only independent predictor of FGID was being often stressed (OR 4.1, P = 0.011). Conclusions: FGIDs and GI symptoms are prevalent among hospital workers. Stress, female sex, irregular working hours, and non-Asian ethnicity appeared to be associated with GI symptoms and FGIDs.

Hepatitis C virus in people with serious mental illness: an analysis of the care cascade at a tertiary health service with a pilot 'identify and treat' strategy.

BACKGROUND: People with serious mental illness (SMI) are underserved from a hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment perspective. AIMS: To examine the HCV care cascade in people with SMI and to pilot a supported HCV treatment integration programme. METHODS: HCV prevalence was retrospectively analysed from 4492 consecutive individuals admitted to a tertiary hospital mental health service between January 2017 and December 2018. Subcohort analysis of screening patterns and predictors of seropositive infection was performed. Referral pathways and community care integration were analysed for HCV-positive individuals, and a prospective community-based 'identify and treat' HCV programme was assessed. RESULTS: Screening for HCV had been performed in 18.6% (835/4492) of the cohort. Seroprevalence was 4.6% (207/4492). HCV seropositivity was associated with age >40 years (odds ratio (OR) = 9.30; confidence interval (CI) 3.69-23.45; P < 0.01), injecting drug use (OR = 24.26; CI 8.99-65.43; P < 0.01) and previous incarceration (OR = 12.26; CI 4.51-33.31; P < 0.01). In a cohort of treatment-eligible individuals, 43.3% (90/208) had neither been referred to specialist services or general practitioners for HCV management. Amongst those referred to specialist services, 64.7% (57/88) did not attend scheduled follow up, and 48.3% (15/31) of attendees were lost to follow up. Through an intensified community access programme, 10 people were successfully treated for HCV, although 22 could not be engaged. CONCLUSION: People with SMI are underserved by traditional models of HCV healthcare. Intensified community-based support can partially bolster the treatment cascade, although investment in innovative screening and management strategies are required to achieve healthcare parity.

Upadacitinib in end stage renal disease: A case of acute severe ulcerative colitis.

Recent data, indicating that inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) may be a risk factor for future chronic kidney disease, highlight the need to study the safety and clinical effectiveness of advanced IBD therapies in patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD), defined as an eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73m2. Upadacitinib, a selective oral Janus kinase (JAK) 1 inhibitor, has demonstrated efficacy in the management of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis. There is also emerging data indicating that JAK inhibition may be clinically effective in the setting of steroid-refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC). There is, however, a lack of "real-world" data documenting the use of JAK inhibitors in patients with ESRD. Here, we report the use of upadacitinib in a patient with ESRD for the management of steroid-refractory ASUC, demonstrating, for the first time, the safe and clinically effective use of upadacitinib in this population.

Value of computed tomography scores in complicated acute diverticulitis.

BACKGROUND: Diverticular disease remains one of the most common conditions in the western world. Up to 25% of patients with diverticular disease require hospitalization, 15-30% of those of which require surgical intervention. CT scoring systems have been proposed as means to drive assessment and stratify patients necessitating hospital intervention. To assess and correlate CT scoring systems with clinical and surgical outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis at a single institution. Single institutional assessment with patients presenting to emergency with a CT diagnosed episode of acute diverticulitis. One hundred and eighty-nine patients were included in the study, 61% of which were male. Patient demographics, comorbidities, medications, biochemistry and inflammatory markers, type of complication following acute diverticulitis, operative/procedural intervention, hospital outcome and mortality were measured. CT scoring systems assessed included modified Hinchey, modified Neff, World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) and modified Siewert scoring systems. RESULTS: Majority of patients had left-sided diverticulitis (91%) with localized air (88%) and pericolic abscess (49%) the most common radiological findings. 28% of patients required radiological and/or surgical management with 12% requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. There was a general trend for surgical/radiological intervention as the scores increased in severity. The four scoring systems were found to be statistically significant predictors of any intervention and of ICU admission with minimal statistical differences across the different scoring systems. CONCLUSION: Radiological CT scores for complicated diverticulitis are at best, moderate predictors of clinical and surgical outcomes and may serve to guide management with minimal statistical differences across different scores.

Portal Venous Pulsatility Index as a predictor of fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

INTRODUCTION: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a growing public health issue. Non-invasive methods to assess the fibrosis stage are limited, and biopsy remains the gold standard. The objective of our study was to assess whether the portal venous pulsatility index (VPI) can be used as a predictor of high-risk NAFLD at a tertiary referral centre for liver transplantation. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients with biopsy-proved NAFLD who had undergone a liver ultrasound scan within 1 year of biopsy at our centre from 2011 to 2019. RESULTS: We did not find a significant correlation between the VPI and the NAFLD risk category or correlation between the VPI and degree of steatosis (P > 0.05 for both). CONCLUSION: Since VPI can be easily obtained on routine liver ultrasound and since other studies do report a positive association with significant fibrosis, more studies are needed before it can be recommended or not in risk-stratifying NAFLD patients into high- vs. low-risk NAFLD.

Early sonographic response to a new medical therapy is associated with future treatment response or failure in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

OBJECTIVE: Gastrointestinal ultrasound (GIUS) accurately assesses inflammation and is responsive to changes in inflammatory bowel disease. This study aimed to determine the prognostic utility of sonographic response in the first 14 weeks of a newly-instituted therapy with therapeutic response at 46 weeks and to compare its performance with standard clinical assessment tools. METHODS: Patients with sonographic evidence of inflammation were assessed by GIUS, clinical activity, serum C-reactive protein and faecal calprotectin again 2, 6 and 14 weeks after commencing a new biologic or thiopurine. Treatment failure was defined as undergoing surgery, hospitalisation, escalation of dosage or introduction of new medication over 46-weeks' follow-up. Sonographic response was defined as a decrease in bowel wall thickness and improved vascularity. RESULTS: In 31 patients (median age 49 years, 74% Crohn's disease), sonographic response at 14 weeks [OR 19.3, 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.23-101.10; P = 0.0054] and faecal calprotectin (P = 0.018), but no clinical disease activity or C-reactive protein, were predictive of subsequent treatment response. Sonographic response alone was predictive at week 6 (P = 0.016), but not week 2. 16% reduction in bowel wall thickness at 6 weeks (area-under-the-receiver-operator-curve=0.86; P = 0.002; sensitivity 72%, specificity 90%), with similar performance for 10% at 14 weeks, was associated with treatment response. CONCLUSION: Sonographic response as early as 6 weeks after initiation of a new therapy may accurately predict treatment outcomes over 46 weeks and is superior to other markers used to monitor disease activity.

Biomarker dynamics during infliximab salvage for acute severe ulcerative colitis: C-reactive protein (CRP)-lymphocyte ratio and CRP-albumin ratio are useful in predicting colectomy.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The residual risk of colectomy after infliximab salvage in steroid-refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is required to inform the need for subsequent maintenance biologic therapy. The aim of this study was to determine the dynamic response of common serum biomarkers to infliximab salvage and assess their utility in predicting subsequent colectomy. METHODS: A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted on all patients who received infliximab salvage for steroid-refractory ASUC between January 1, 2010, and July 31, 2019. Biomarkers were assessed on admission and days 1 and 3 post infliximab, and included C-reactive protein (CRP)-albumin-ratio (CAR), CRP-lymphocyte-ratio (CLR), platelet-lymphocyte-ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR). RESULTS: Of 94 patients (median age, 35 years; 67% of male), 20% required colectomy at 12 months. Biomarkers on day 3 post-infliximab best differentiated nonresponders, who had higher CRP, lower albumin and lower lymphocyte count (each P< 0.05). Day 3 predictive performance (area under the curve) for 12-month colectomy was best for CAR (0.871) and CLR (0.874), which were similar to Lindgren (0.829; P> 0.05) but superior to Mayo (0.726), partial Mayo (0.719), PLR (0.719), Ho index (0.714), NLR (0.675), Travis score (0.657) and endoscopic Mayo (0.609) (each P< 0.05). A day 3 CAR cutoff of 0.47 mg/g had 79% sensitivity, 80% specificity, 94% negative predictive value (NPV) to predict colectomy; while a day 3 CLR cutoff of 6.0 mg/109 had 84% sensitivity, 84% specificity, 96% NPV. CONCLUSIONS: CAR and CLR measured on day 3 post infliximab salvage for steroid-refractory ASUC represent simple and routinely performed biomarkers that appear to be strong predictors of colectomy. Prospective studies are required to confirm the utility of these predictive scores.

Accuracy of Gastrointestinal Ultrasound and Calprotectin in the Assessment of Inflammation and its Location in Patients with an Ileoanal Pouch.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In symptomatic patients with ileoanal pouches, pouchoscopy is needed for accurate diagnosis but is invasive. We aimed to assess the utility of non-invasive gastrointestinal ultrasound and faecal calprotectin in ileoanal pouch patients. METHODS: Patients with an ileoanal pouch were consecutively enrolled in this cross-sectional study from clinics in Victoria, Australia. The pouchitis disease activity index was used as a reference standard. Video-recorded pouchoscopies were reviewed by three gastroenterologists. Pouch, pre-pouch, and cuff biopsies were reviewed by a single pathologist. Ultrasound was performed by a single gastroenterologist transabdominally and transperineally. Faecal calprotectin was measured from morning stool samples. All examiners were blinded to patients' clinical history. RESULTS: A total of 44 participants had a pouchoscopy, of whom 43 had a faecal calprotectin test and 42 had an ultrasound; 17 had pouchitis, 15 had pre-pouch ileitis, and 16 had cuffitis. Pouch wall thickness of <3 mm was 88% sensitive in excluding pouchitis, and pouch wall thickness of ≥4 mm was 87% specific in diagnosing pouchitis. Transabdominal ultrasound had good utility [area under the curve: 0.78] in diagnosing moderate-severe pre-pouch ileitis. Transperineal ultrasound had good utility for the diagnosis of pouchitis [area under the curve: 0.79]. Faecal calprotectin differentiated inflammatory from non-inflammatory pouch disorders, such as irritable pouch syndrome, with an area under the curve of 0.90. Faecal calprotectin <100 µg/g ruled out inflammatory pouch disorders with a sensitivity of 94%. CONCLUSIONS: Faecal calprotectin and ultrasound are accurate and complementary tests to diagnose and localise inflammation of the ileoanal pouch. Prospective studies are needed to validate proposed sonographic indices and calprotectin levels.

The Reliability and Accuracy of Endoscopic Items and Scores Used in the Assessment of the Ileoanal Pouch and Cuff.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Currently used endoscopic items for the assessment of pouchitis and cuffitis have deficiencies in reliability and validation. We assessed the reliability and accuracy of new endoscopic items for pouchitis and of the Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity [UCEIS] for cuffitis. METHODS: Three new endoscopic items were assessed and included in the Monash pouchitis endoscopic subscore: bleeding [absent/contact/spontaneous]; erosions [absent/<10/≥10]; and ulceration [absent/<10%/≥10%]. Three raters evaluated 44 pouchoscopy videos in duplicates, in random order. Intra- and inter-rater reliability of all endoscopic items and UCEIS were assessed. Clinical and histological pouchitis disease activity index [PDAI] subscores were also assessed and faecal calprotectin was measured. RESULTS: All three Monash endoscopic items had substantial intra-rater reliability with intraclass correlation coefficients [ICCs] >0.61 [95% CI >0.61], compared with only ulcers from the currently used PDAI endoscopic subscore, but inter-rater reliability was only substantial for ulceration and no better than those of the currently used endoscopic items. The Monash endoscopic subscore had a strong positive correlation with the reference standard global endoscopic lesion severity r = 0.80 [95% CI 0.80-0.80] and the reference standard PDAI endoscopic subscore r = 0.70 [95% CI 0.67-0.73], which was higher than the correlation observed for the currently used PDAI endoscopic subscore. The UCEIS had substantial intra-rater reliability, but only fair inter-rater reliability and poor diagnostic performance for cuffitis. CONCLUSIONS: The Monash endoscopic items, and endoscopic subscore they generate, have enhanced overall performance compared with the currently used PDAI items and subscore. Further validation and responsiveness to change in disease state are indicated.