Temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths from 2007 to 2020 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Dengue, a disease with multifactorial determinants, is linked to population susceptibility to circulating viruses and the extent of vector infestation. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2007 to 2020. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) were utilized for the investigation. To assess the disease's progression over the study period and predict its future incidence, time series analyses were conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Over the study period, a total of 463,566 dengue cases and 125 deaths were reported. Notably, there was an increase in severe cases and deaths, marking hyperendemics characterized by simultaneous virus circulation (79.17% in 2016-50% in 2019). The generalized additive model revealed a non-linear pattern with epidemic peaks in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019, indicating an explosive pattern of dengue incidence. The SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,0,0)12 model was validated for each year (2015 to 2019). Comparing the actual and predicted numbers of dengue cases, the model demonstrated its effectiveness for predicting cases in the municipality. The rising number of dengue cases emphasizes the importance of vector surveillance and control. Enhanced models and predictions by local health services will aid in anticipating necessary control measures to combat future epidemics.

Actividad antibacteriana de los extractos de Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels (jambolán) frente a los microorganismos asociados a la mastitis bovina / Antibacterial activity of extracts of Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels (jambolão), against microorganisms associated with bovine mastitis

Introducción: la aparición de cepas bacterianas resistentes a los antibióticos ha estimulado el desarrollo de nuevas líneas de investigación, basadas en las propiedades antibacterianas de plantas utilizadas en medicina popular. La medicina veterinaria ha estado tomando para sí los beneficios de la medicina tradicional, en un intento de sustituir el uso de antibióticos en el tratamiento y la prevención de la mastitis. Objetivo: evaluar la actividad antibacteriana de los extractos hidralcohólicos de Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels, en comparación con las bacterias relacionadas en la mastitis bovina. Métodos: se obtuvieron extractos de hojas frescas con alcohol a 92,8° y de hojas secas con alcohol a 70°. La actividad antimicrobiana de plantas se evaluó utilizando la técnica de microdilución. Resultados: los extractos de hojas frescas mostraron una actividad mejor en comparación con los de hojas secas, con valores de concentración mínima inhibitoria de 1,5 a 50 %, en comparación con los diferentes microorganismos. Se destaca como más eficaz contra todo estudio el Streptococcus, con la concentración mínima inhibitoria igual a 3,1; 1,5 y 1,9 % para Streptococcus uberis, Streptococcus agalacteae y Streptococcus dysgalacteae, respectivamente. Conclusiones: estos resultados sugieren que el uso de hojas de esta especie de planta puede constituir una alternativa viable para la prevención y el tratamiento de la mastitis bovina.

Introduction: the emergence of bacterial strains resistant to antibiotics has stimulated the development of new lines of research based on the antibacterial properties of plants used in folk medicine. Veterinary medicine has been taking for itself the benefits of traditional medicine in an attempt to replace the use of antibiotics in the treatment and prevention of mastitis. Objective: this study is aimed to evaluate the antibacterial activity of hydroalcoholic extracts Syzygium cumini (L.) Skeels, compared to bacteria related to bovine mastitis. Methods: the extracts were obtained from fresh leaves with ethanol at 92.8° and leaves with ethanol at 70°. The antimicrobial activity of plants was evaluated using the microdilution technique. Results: the hydroalcoholic extracts fresh plant showed better activity compared with the hydroalcoholic extracts dry leaf, with minimal inhibitory concentration values ranging from 1.5 to 50 % compared to the different microorganisms; highlighting Streptococcus as more effective against all study, with minimal inhibitory concentration equal to 3.1, 1.5, and 1.9 % for Streptococcus uberis, Streptococcus agalacteae, and Streptococcus dysgalacteae, respectively. Conclusions: these results suggest that the use of leaves of this plant species may constitute a viable alternative for the prevention and treatment of bovine mastitis.