Using machine learning models to predict falls in hospitalised adults.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at high risk of falling is crucial in implementing effective fall prevention programs. While the integration of information systems is becoming more widespread in the healthcare industry, it poses a significant challenge in analysing vast amounts of data to identify factors that could enhance patient safety. OBJECTIVE: To determine fall-associated factors and develop high-performance prediction tools for at-risk patients in acute and sub-acute care services in Australia. METHODS: A retrospective study of 672,400 patients admitted to acute and sub-acute care services within a large metropolitan tertiary health service in Victoria, Australia, between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021. Data were obtained from four sources: the Department of Health Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset, RiskManTM, electronic health records, and the health workforce dataset. Machine learning techniques, including Random Forest and Deep Neural Network models, were used to analyse the data, predict patient falls, and identify the most important risk factors for falls in this population. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, F1-score, precision, recall, specificity, Matthew's correlation coefficient, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The deep neural network and random forest models were highly accurate in predicting hospital patient falls. The deep neural network model achieved an accuracy of 0.988 and a specificity of 0.999, while the RF achieved an accuracy of 0.989 and a specificity of 1.000. The top 20 variables impacting falls were compared across both models, and 12 common factors were identified. These factors can be broadly classified into three categories: patient-related factors, staffing-related factors, and admission-related factors. Although not all factors are modifiable, they must be considered when planning fall prevention interventions. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated machine learning's potential to predict falls and identify key risk factors. Further validation across diverse populations and settings is essential for broader applicability.

Cancer Decedents' Hospital End-of-Life Care Documentation: A Retrospective Review of Patient Records.

Objective: International standards of end-of-life care (EOLC) intend to guide the delivery of safe and high-quality EOLC. Adequately documented care is conducive to higher quality of care, but the extent to which EOLC standards are documented in hospital medical records is unknown. Assessing which EOLC standards are documented in patients' medical records can help identify areas that are performed well and areas where improvements are needed. This study assessed cancer decedents' EOLC documentation in hospital settings. Methods: Medical records of 240 cancer decedents were retrospectively evaluated. Data were collected across six Australian hospitals between 1/01/2019 and 31/12/2019. EOLC documentation related to Advance Care Planning (ACP), resuscitation planning, care of the dying person, and grief and bereavement care was reviewed. Chi-square tests assessed associations between EOLC documentation and patient characteristics, and hospital settings (specialist palliative care unit, sub-acute/rehabilitation care settings, acute care wards, and intensive care units). Results: Decedents' mean age was 75.3 years (SD 11.8), 52.0% (n = 125) were female, and 73.7% lived with other adults or carers. All patients (n = 240; 100%) had documentation for resuscitation planning, 97.6% (n = 235) for Care for the Dying Person, 40.0% for grief and bereavement care (n = 96), and 30.4% (n = 73) for ACP. Patients living with other adults or carers were less likely to have a documented ACP than those living alone or with dependents (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.26-0.89). EOLC documentation was significantly greater in specialist palliative care settings than that in other hospital settings (P < .001). Conclusion: The process of dying is well documented among inpatients diagnosed with cancer. ACP and grief and bereavement support are not documented enough. Organizational endorsement of a clear practice framework and increased training could improve documentation of these aspects of EOLC.

Service use by older very frequent emergency department users: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Frequent Emergency Department (ED) attendance is a common occurrence, across all patient age groups. Older frequent users of ED are an at-risk group who often have complex, chronic health needs with many requiring out-of-hospital services to support their care. The aim of this study is to identify the characteristics, outcomes and health service use of older, very frequent emergency department (ED) users. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study, at three Australian EDs, comparing first and last ED attendances, by older people (≥65 years) with frequent ED use (≥8 attendances/year). RESULTS: There were 1387 ED attendances in 12 months by 115 patients (median=11). The median age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity score increased between attendances (5 vs 6, p<0.001). From first to last visit, hospital stays exceeding 7 days increased (12% vs 20%, p=0.013), while both ED re-attendances within 28 days (58% vs 20%, p≤0.001) and hospital readmissions within 30 days (39% vs 23%, p=0.016) decreased. In-patient mortality was 11% (n=10/88). There was no change in out-of-hospital services in place at both ED attendances (55% vs 61%, p=0.185). CONCLUSIONS: Out-of-hospital service use did not change despite frequent ED attendance. Older very frequent ED users had increasing co-morbidities over time and often required hospital admission.

2017 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations Summary

The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation has initiated a near-continuous review of cardiopulmonary resuscitation science that replaces the previous 5-year cyclic batch-and-queue approach process. This is the first of an annual series of International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations summary articles that will include the cardiopulmonary resuscitation science reviewed by the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation in the previous year. The review this year includes 5 basic life support and 1 pediatric Consensuses on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations. Each of these includes a summary of the science and its quality based on Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria and treatment recommendations. Insights into the deliberations of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task force members are provided in Values and Preferences sections. Finally, the task force members have prioritized and listed the top 3 knowledge gaps for each population, intervention, comparator, and outcome question

Part 3: adult basic life support and automated external defibrillation: 2015 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations

This review comprises the most extensive literature search and evidence evaluation to date on the most important international BLS interventions, diagnostics, and prognostic factors for cardiac arrest victims. It reemphasizes that the critical lifesaving steps of BLS are (1) prevention, (2) immediate recognition and activation of the emergency response system, (3) early high-quality CPR, and (4) rapid defibrillation for shockable rhythms. Highlights in prevention indicate the rational and judicious deployment of search-and-rescue operations in drowning victims and the importance of education on opioid-associated emergencies. Other 2015 highlights in recognition and activation include the critical role of dispatcher recognition and dispatch-assisted chest compressions, which has been demonstrated in multiple international jurisdictions with consistent improvements in cardiac arrest survival. Similar to the 2010 ILCOR BLS treatment recommendations, the importance of high quality was reemphasized across all measures of CPR quality: rate, depth, recoil, and minimal chest compression pauses, with a universal understanding that we all should be providing chest compressions to all victims of cardiac arrest. This review continued to focus on the interface of BLS sequencing and ensuring high-quality CPR with other important BLS interventions, such as ventilation and defibrillation. In addition, this consensus statement highlights the importance of EMS systems, which employ bundles of care focusing on providing high-quality chest compressions while extricating the patient from the scene to the next level of care. Highlights in defibrillation indicate the global importance of increasing the number of sites with public-access defibrillation programs. Whereas the 2010 ILCOR Consensus on Science provided important direction for the "what" in resuscitation (ie, what to do), the 2015 consensus has begun with the GRADE methodology to provide direction for the quality of resuscitation. We hope that resuscitation councils and other stakeholders will be able to translate this body of knowledge of international consensus statements to build their own effective resuscitation guidelines.

Descriptive analysis of emergency department oxygen use in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Inconsistencies in oxygen therapy recommendations in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may result in variability in emergency department (ED) oxygen management of patients with COPD. The aim of this study was to describe oxygen management in the first 4 h of ED care for patients with exacerbation of COPD. METHODS: A retrospective medical record audit was conducted at four public and one private ED in Melbourne, Australia. Participants were 273 adult ED patients with COPD presenting with a primary complaint of shortness of breath from July 2006 to July 2007. Outcome measures were physiological data, including oxygen saturation (SpO(2)), oxygen delivery devices and flow rates on ED arrival, 1 and 4 h. RESULTS: Oxygen was used in 82.0% of patients. Patients who required oxygen had higher incidence of ambulance transport (P < 0.001), triage category 2 (P = 0.006), home oxygen use (P < 0.001), and increased work of breathing on ED arrival (P < 0.001), and higher median respiratory rate (P < 0.001) and heart rate (P = 0.001). SpO(2) > 90% occurred in the majority of patients (87.5%; 96.4%; 95.6%); however, a considerable number of patients with SpO(2) < 90% were not given oxygen (61.8%; 30%; 45.5%). CONCLUSIONS: A number of patients with documented hypoxaemia were not given oxygen and there may be variables other than oxygen saturation that may influence oxygen use. Future research should focus on increasing the evidence-based supporting oxygen use and better understanding of clinicians' oxygen decision-making in patients with COPD.

Emergency department management of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: audit of compliance with evidence-based guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Emergency departments (ED) play a key role in management of exacerbation of chronic obstructive airways disease (COPD). Current guidelines for management of exacerbation of COPD showed highest levels of evidence (Level A and B) were related to use of medications and non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV). AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine compliance with high level evidence for management of exacerbation of COPD during the first 4 h of ED care. METHODS: A retrospective medical record audit was conducted at four public and one private ED in Melbourne, Australia. Participants were adult patients with COPD presenting to the ED with a primary complaint of shortness of breath from July 2006 to July 2007. Outcome measures were compliance with evidence-based recommendations regarding use of bronchodilators, methylxanthines, steroids and NIPPV. RESULTS: Of 273 patients in this study, 72.4% received short-acting beta-agonist bronchodilators, 37.8% received an inhaled short-acting anticholinergic medication and 56.6% received systemic steroid therapy. NIPPV was used in 21 patients, 15 of whom had documentation of acidosis and/or hypercapnia). CONCLUSIONS: There was variation in the use of high level evidence for the ED management of exacerbation of COPD. The highest rate of compliance was non-use of methylxanthines and the greatest deficit was poor compliance with evidence related to NIPPV. There was also scope for improvement in the use of bronchodilators and systemic steroids.

The influence of economic incentives on treatment patterns in a third-party funded dental service.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the response of dental practitioners to administration and remuneration adjustments to the Dental Treatment Services Scheme (DTSS) in the Republic of Ireland. DESIGN: Following the introduction of a series of administration and fee adjustments by a third party payments system in December 1999 the pattern of extractions and restorations are examined to determine whether the adjustments had influenced provider behaviour, in particular whether a substitution effect from extractions to restorations would result from a relative fee increase of 62% for amalgam fillings. DATA AND METHODS: Data on patient and provider characteristics from June 1996 to April 2005, collected by the Health Service Executive (HSE) National Shared Services Primary Care Reimbursement Service to facilitate remuneration to dentists providing services in the DTSS, was used in this analysis. A graphical analysis of the data revealed a structural break in the time-series and an apparent substitution to amalgam fillings following the introduction of the fee increases. To test the statistical significance of this break, the ratio of amalgams to restorations was regressed on the trend, growth and level dummy variables, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The diagnostics of the model were assessed using the Jarque-Bera normality test and the LM to test for serial correlation. RESULTS: The initial results showed no evidence of a structural break. However on further investigation, when a pulse dummy was included to account for the immediate impact of the fee adjustment the results suggest a unit root process with a structural break in December 1999. This implies that the amalgam fee increase of December 1999 influenced the behaviour patterns of providers. CONCLUSIONS: System changes can be used to change the emphasis from a scheme that was principally exodontia/emergency based to a scheme that is more conservative and based on restoration/prevention.

Effect of emergency department fast track on emergency department length of stay: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of fast track on emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS). DESIGN AND SETTING: Pair-matched case-control design in a public teaching hospital in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Patients treated by the ED fast track (cases) between 1 January and 31 March 2007 were compared with patients treated by the usual ED processes (controls) from 1 July to 15 November 2006 (n = 822 matched pairs). INTERVENTION: ED fast track was established in November 2006 and focused on the management of patients with non-urgent complaints. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was ED LOS for fast-track patients. Secondary outcomes were waiting times and ED LOS for other ED patients. RESULTS: Median ED LOS for non-admitted patients was 132 minutes (interquartile range (IQR) 83-205.25) for controls and 116 minutes (IQR 75.5-159.0) for cases (p<0.01). Fast-track patients had a significantly higher incidence of discharge within 2 h (53% vs 44%, p<0.01) and 4 h (92% vs 84%, p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: ED fast track decreased ED LOS for non-admitted patients without compromising waiting times and ED LOS for other ED patients.

Evaluation of nasopharyngeal oxygen, nasal prongs and facemask oxygen therapy devices in adult patients: a randomised crossover trial.

Nasopharyngeal oxygen (NPO) therapy may overcome some of the difficulties associated with nasal prongs and facemask oxygen delivery devices. In response to a lack of published studies of NPO therapy in adults, we conducted a prospective randomised crossover trial to compare the effectiveness of NPO, nasal prongs (NP) and facemasks (FM) when used in an adult population (n = 37) from the intensive care unit and general hospital wards. We measured oxygen saturation (SpO2) using pulse oximetry, oxygen flow (litres per minute), respiration rate (per minute) and comfort using a horizontal visual analogue scale. All three devices were effective in maintaining a SpO2 of > or = 95% (NP 97.0 +/- 1.9, NPO 97.7 +/- 1.7, FM 98.8 +/- 1.3%). NPO therapy consumed less oxygen than NP and FM therapy (NP 2.6 +/- 1.0, NPO 2.2 +/- 0.9, FM 6.1 +/- 0.4 l/min, P < 0.001). There was no significant difference in patients' respiratory rates (NP 19.9 +/- 3.2, NPO 19.9 +/- 3.0, FM 19.8 +/- 3.1 per minute, P = 0.491). In terms of comfort, patients rated NP higher than NPO and FM using a horizontal visual analogue scale (100 mm = most comfortable) (NP 65.5 +/- 14.3, NPO 62.8 +/- 19.4, FM 49.4 +/- 21.4 mm, P < 0.001). We conclude that for adult patients, nasal prongs and nasopharyngeal oxygen therapy consume less oxygen and provide greater comfort than facemasks while still maintaining SpO2 > or = 95%.

Career development year in emergency nursing: using specific educational preparation and clinical support to facilitate the transition to specialist practice.

This article outlines the development, implementation and evaluation of the Career Development Year (CDY) in the Emergency Department (ED) at Dandenong Hospital in Victoria, Australia. As a consequence of a shortage of emergency nurses, hospitals have recruited inadequately prepared nurses to staff their EDs. The resultant increase in stress of qualified and experienced emergency nurses has had a major impact on the retention of emergency nurses. The CDY aims to provide nurses with little or no experience in emergency nursing with supported entry into this area of specialist practice. The CDY is based on three factors identified as important in the transition to emergency nursing; knowledge, clinical support and professional development. By providing beginning emergency nurses with supported entry to a new and challenging clinical environment, the CDY has been an effective recruitment and retention strategy. In addition it has demonstrated that a committed ED team has the capability to teach and nurture the emergency nurses of the future.

An assessment of the cost effectiveness of a postal toothpaste programme to prevent caries among five-year-old children in the North West of England.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of a postal toothpaste programme to prevent caries in 5-year-old children in the north west of England. PARTICIPANTS: Birth cohorts of children aged 12 months were recruited from high caries risk populations in nine health districts. DESIGN: The results of a randomised controlled trial to measure the effects of a postal toothpaste programme are used and related to the costs of running a similar programme. Children in the trial received free toothpaste on four occasions a year and a toothbrush once a year for four years from age 12 months to 5 years. When aged 5-6 years children were examined by trained, calibrated examiners using BASCD standards. Those who received toothpaste containing 1450 ppm F were found to have a significantly lower mean dmft than those who had not. The costs that would be incurred by a public dental service running such a postal toothpaste programme are identified, measured and related to the likely health improvement that could be achieved. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The cost per tooth saved and the cost per child saved from caries experience and extraction experience. RESULTS: The estimated cost per tooth saved from carious attack was pounds sterling 80.83 and the cost per child of preventing caries experience was pounds sterling 424.38 and avoiding any extractions was pounds sterling 679.01. Analysis resulted in an overestimation of costs and underestimation of benefits. CONCLUSION: The programme achieved a significant caries reduction in children who received the 1450 ppm F toothpaste and the costs are now available to those considering provision of treatment services in areas where children are at high caries risk.

Clinical decisions using the National Triage Scale: how important is postgraduate education?

Triage is the formal nursing assessment of all patients who present to an Emergency Department (ED). The National Triage Scale (NTS) is used in most Australian EDs. Triage decision making involves the allocation of every patients presenting to an ED to one of the five NTS categories. The NTS directly relates a triage category to illness or injury severity and need for emergency care. Triage nurses' decisions not only have the potential to impact on the health outcomes of ED patients, they are also used, in part, to evaluate ED performance and allocate components of ED funding. This study was a correlational study that used survey methods. Triage decisions were classified as 'expected triage', 'overtriage' or 'undertriage' decisions. Participant's qualifications were allocated to five categories: 'nil'; 'emergency nursing'; 'critical care nursing'; 'midwifery'; and 'tertiary' qualifications. There was no correlation between triage decisions and length of experience in emergency nursing or triage. 'Expected triage' decisions were more common when the predicted triage category was Category 3 (P < 0.001) and 'overtriage' decisions were less common when the predicted triage category was Category 2 (P < 0.0010). The frequency of 'undertriage' decisions decreased significantly when the predicted triage category was Category 3 (P < 0.001) or Category 4 (P < 0.001). There was no correlation between triage decisions and qualifications in the 'nil', 'emergency nursing' or 'critical care nursing' categories. A midwifery qualification demonstrated a positive correlation with 'expected triage' decisions (P = 0.048) and a negative correlation with 'undertriage' decisions (P = 0.012). There was also a positive correlation between a tertiary qualification and 'expected triage' decisions (P = 0.012).

A study of the effects of the appointment of a clinical nurse educator in one Victorian emergency department.

The Clinical Nurse Educator (CNE) project saw the appointment and evaluation of a CNE position in the Emergency Department at Dandenong Hospital, Australia. The study aimed to identify the educational needs of nursing staff, the self reported levels of knowledge of nursing staff, the perceptions of nursing staff surrounding education and clinical support and to compare responses over the 6 month period to identify any statistically significant changes. Data was collected at three intervals during the study period and the responses compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test(H). Since the appointment of the CNEs, the reported levels of knowledge increased for all areas of emergency nursing included in the study. Tutorials, in-service education sessions, direct clinical support and self-directed learning packages were reported to be useful educational methods. There were increases in the reported adequacy of in-service education (P = 0.0000), level of clinical support and satisfaction with current level of knowledge in emergency nursing. Nursing staff found the process of basic and advanced life support assessment less intimidating (P = 0.0031), more important and less affected by workload constraints of the ED (P = 0.0002). The reported thoroughness of orientation of new employees (P = 0.0005) and levels of clinical support and education when orientated to the triage role (P = 0.0225) also increased.

Triage nurses' decisions using the National Triage Scale for Australian emergency departments.

The initiation of emergency care primarily depends on the decisions made by the triage nurse. Triage decisions can therefore have a profound effect on the health outcomes of patients who present for emergency care. If the National Triage Scale (NTS) was effective in providing a standardized approach to triage, a patient with a specific problem should be allocated to the same triage category, irrespective of the institution to which they present or the personnel performing the role of triage. This study examines triage nurses' level of agreement in their allocation of triage categories to patients with specific presenting problems using the NTS. Relationships between demographic characteristics of participants and triage decisions are examined and implications of any variation for triage practice and patient outcomes are explored.

The treatment of superficial bladder tumours under local anaesthetic using suction diathermy electrodes.

Daycase cystoscopy under local anaesthetic is commonly used in screening patients with superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. Treatment of any lesions found, however, often requires a further cystoscopy under general or regional anaesthesia. Recent reports suggest that small lesions can be diathermied without anaesthesia with only mild patient discomfort. Suction diathermy electrodes, introduced for the treatment of small superficial bladder tumours, have significant advantages over conventional methods. Firstly, most of the superficial tumour fronds can be removed painlessly by suction alone. Diathermy, the uncomfortable component of treatment, is sparingly used to treat the tumour base. Larger tumours can therefore be treated by suction diathermy, with less patient discomfort, than by standard cystodiathermy methods. Secondly, by eliminating tumour debris within the bladder during treatment and reducing tissue damage due to diathermy, suction diathermy minimizes the risk of tumour recurrence due to implantation. In this preliminary report the ease and efficacy of using suction diathermy electrodes under local anaesthesia is assessed.

Consumer illness careers: an investigation of allergy sufferers and their universe of medical choices.

The concept of the consumer illness career with a focus on allergies is introduced and developed by the authors in terms of a trajectory of five stages over time, the related product-service unities or constellations--including health care treatments and remedies--and various situational and trait factors that influence the course of a consumer's response to his or her disease. Next, they investigate the career's holistic nature and thematic content in an in-depth study of allergy sufferers. The study indicates that allergy sufferers engage ina wide range of strategic behaviors and choices associated with coping with their allergies, much of which can be captured in terms of patterned themes. Finally, the authors offer research, managerial, and public policy implications.