Unveiling the contributions of immunization for progressing towards Universal Health Coverage.

The aim of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)3 is to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all, at all ages; including reducing maternal and child mortality, combating communicable and non-communicable diseases, and achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC). UHC aims to provide everyone with equal access to quality essential and comprehensive healthcare services including preventions, interventions, and treatments, without exposing them to financial hardship. Making progress toward UHC requires significant investment in technical and financial resources and countries are pursuing the implementation of cost-saving measures within health systems to help them achieve UHC. Whilst many countries are far from attaining UHC, all countries, particularly low- and middle-income countries, can take steps toward achieving UHC. This paper discusses key data showing how immunization is a fundamental, cost-effective tool for reducing morbidity and mortality associated with infectious disease in all populations, creating more productive communities, reducing treatment costs, and consequently, facilitating social and economic advancement. Immunization is key to advancing toward UHC by relieving the burden that diseases place on the healthcare services, freeing essential resources to use elsewhere within the healthcare system. Immunization is an essential, readily available strategy that countries can deploy to achieve UHC and the SDG3 agenda.

15-year experience with rotavirus vaccination in Mexico: a systematic literature review.

A systematic review was conducted in Mexico to consolidate and evaluate evidence after 15 years of rotavirus vaccination, according to the National Immunization Program. Five databases were screened to identify published articles (January 2000-February 2020) with evidence on all clinical and epidemiological endpoints (e.g. immunogenicity, safety, efficacy, impact/effectiveness) of rotavirus vaccination in Mexico. Twenty-two articles were identified (observational studies including health-economic models: 17; randomized controlled trials: 5). Fourteen studies evaluated a human attenuated vaccine (HRV), four studies evaluated both vaccines, and only two evaluated a bovine-human reassortant vaccine, with local efficacy data only for HRV. Local evidence shows vaccines are safe, immunogenic, efficacious, and provide an acceptable risk-benefit profile. The benefits of both vaccines in alleviating the burden of all-cause diarrhea mortality and morbidity are documented in several local post-licensure studies. Findings signify overall benefits of rotavirus vaccination and support the continued use of rotavirus vaccine in Mexico.

The economic burden of pneumonia in children under five in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: There were about 138 million new episodes of pneumonia and 0.9 million deaths globally in 2015. In Uganda, pneumonia was the fourth leading cause of death in children under five years of age in 2017-18. However, the economic burden of pneumonia, particularly for households and caregivers, is poorly documented. AIM: To estimate the costs associated with an episode of pneumonia from the household, government, and societal perspectives. METHODS: We selected 48 healthcare facilities from the public and private sector across all care levels (primary, secondary, and tertiary), based on the number of pneumonia episodes reported for 2015-16. Adult caregivers of children with pneumonia diagnosis at discharge were selected. Using an ingredient-based approach, we collected cost and utilization data from administrative databases, medical records, and patient caregiver surveys. Household costs included direct medical and non-medical costs, as well as indirect costs estimated through a human capital approach. All costs are presented in 2018 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: The treatment of pneumonia puts a substantial economic burden on households. The average societal cost per episode of pneumonia across all sectors and types of visits was $42; hospitalized episodes costed an average of $62 per episode, while episodes only requiring ambulatory care was $16 per episode. Public healthcare facilities covered $12 and $7 on average per hospitalized or ambulatory episode, respectively. Caregivers using the public system faced lower out-of-pocket payments, evaluated at $17, than those who used private for-profit ($21) and not-for-profit ($50) for hospitalized care. For ambulatory care, out-of-pocket payments amounted to $8, $18, and $9 for public, private for-profit, and not-for-profit healthcare facilities, respectively. About 39% of households experienced catastrophic health expenditures due to out-of-pocket payments related to the treatment of pneumonia.

The economic burden of diarrhea in children under 5 years in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among under-five children in Bangladesh. Hospitalization for diarrhea can pose a significant burden on households and health systems. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost of illness due to diarrhea from the healthcare facility, caregiver, and societal perspectives in Bangladesh. METHOD: A cross-sectional study with an ingredient-based costing approach was conducted in 48 healthcare facilities in Bangladesh. In total, 899 caregivers of under-five children with diarrhea were interviewed face-to-face between August 2017 and May 2018, followed up over phone after 7-14 days of discharge, to capture all expenses and time costs related to the entire episode of diarrhea. RESULTS: The average cost per episode for caregivers was US$62, with $29 direct and $34 indirect costs. From the societal perspective, average cost per episode of diarrhea was $71. In 2018, an estimated $79 million of economic costs were incurred for treating diarrhea in Bangladesh. Using 10% of income as threshold, over 46% of interviewed households faced catastrophic expenditure from diarrheal disease. CONCLUSION: The economic costs incurred by caregivers for treating per-episode of diarrhea was around 4% of the annual national gross domestic product per-capita. Investment in vaccination can help to reduce the prevalence of diarrheal diseases and avert this public health burden.

Contingent Valuation: A Pilot Study for Eliciting Willingness to Pay for a Reduction in Mortality From Vaccine-Preventable Illnesses for Children and Adults in Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVES: The contingent valuation (CV) method elicits willingness to pay (WTP) for calculating the value of statistical life (VSL). CV approaches for assessing VSL are uncommon in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Between 2008 and 2018 only 44 articles utilized WTP in a health-related field and of these only 5 (11%) utilized CV to assess the WTP for a mortality risk reduction. We elicit WTP estimates and compute VSL using the CV method in Bangladesh. METHODS: The pilot study was primarily aimed at developing best practice guidelines for CV studies in LMICs to get more robust WTP estimates. To this end, we explored three methodological a) Varying the name of the intervention, keeping all other characteristics constant; b) varying the effectiveness of the health intervention and c) offering an overnight period to think about the WTP scenario. The survey was administered 413 randomly selected participants. VSL was for a 1/3000 mortality risk reduction. RESULTS: We had more males (54%) than females (46%) and the mean annual self-reported income was $5,683.36. Mean VSL is $11,339.70 with a median of $10,413. The ratio of child: adult WTP is approximately 1 by both gender and age category. The vaccine intervention had the largest amount of $0 WTP and protest responses (52% and 58% respectively). 93% of the participants were able to describe (teach-back) the vaccine effectiveness using their own family as an example. CONCLUSION: Our study provides empirical evidence on how to better generate CV surveys to produce more robust WTP estimates.

Costs of Immunization Programs for 10 Vaccines in 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries From 2011 to 2030.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the level of investment needed for the 2021-2030 decade is important as the global community faces the next strategic period for vaccines and immunization programs. To assist with this goal, we estimated the aggregate costs of immunization programs for ten vaccines in 94 low- and middle-income countries from 2011 to 2030. METHOD: We calculated vaccine, immunization delivery and stockpile costs for 94 low- and middle-income countries leveraging the latest available data sources. We conducted scenario analyses to vary assumptions about the relationship between delivery cost and coverage as well as vaccine prices for fully self-financing countries. RESULTS: The total aggregate cost of immunization programs in 94 countries for 10 vaccines from 2011 to 2030 is $70.8 billion (confidence interval: $56.6-$93.3) under the base case scenario and $84.1 billion ($72.8-$102.7) under an incremental delivery cost scenario, with an increasing trend over two decades. The relative proportion of vaccine and delivery costs for pneumococcal conjugate, human papillomavirus, and rotavirus vaccines increase as more countries introduce these vaccines. Nine countries in accelerated transition phase bear the highest burden of the costs in the next decade, and uncertainty with vaccine prices for the 17 fully self-financing countries could lead to total costs that are 1.3-13.1 times higher than the base case scenario. CONCLUSION: Resource mobilization efforts at the global and country levels will be needed to reach the level of investment needed for the coming decade. Global-level initiatives and targeted strategies for transitioning countries will help ensure the sustainability of immunization programs.

Economic Benefits of Immunization for 10 Pathogens in 94 Low- and Middle-Income Countries From 2011 to 2030 Using Cost-of-Illness and Value-of-Statistical-Life Approaches.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccination has prevented millions of deaths and cases of disease in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). During the Decade of Vaccines (2011-2020), international organizations, including the World Health Organization and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, focused on new vaccine introduction and expanded coverage of existing vaccines. As Gavi, other organizations, and country governments look to the future, we aimed to estimate the economic benefits of immunization programs made from 2011 to 2020 and potential gains in the future decade. METHODS: We used estimates of cases and deaths averted by vaccines against 10 pathogens in 94 LMICs to estimate the economic value of immunization. We applied 3 approaches-cost of illness averted (COI), value of statistical life (VSL), and value of statistical life-year (VSLY)-to estimate observable and unobservable economic benefits between 2011 and 2030. RESULTS: From 2011 to 2030, immunization would avert $1510.4 billion ($674.3-$2643.2 billion) (2018 USD) in costs of illness in the 94 modeled countries, compared with the counterfactual of no vaccination. Using the VSL approach, immunization would generate $3436.7 billion ($1615.8-$5657.2 billion) in benefits. Applying the VSLY approach, $5662.7 billion ($2547.2-$9719.4) in benefits would be generated. CONCLUSION: Vaccination has generated significant economic benefits in LMICs in the past decade. To reach predicted levels of economic benefits, countries and international donor organizations need to meet coverage projections outlined in the Gavi Operational Forecast. Estimates generated using the COI, VSL, or VSLY approach may be strategically used by donor agencies, decision makers, and advocates to inform investment cases and advocacy campaigns.

Budget impact analysis of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in Colombia.

Objective: Pneumococcal diseases including invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), pneumonia, and acute otitis media (AOM) impose a substantial public health burden. This study performed a budget impact analysis of the use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in Colombia.Methods: We compared the direct medical cost of the scenario without and with PCV vaccination using either pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) over 5 years (2020-2024) from the health-care system perspective. Vaccine efficacy estimates were obtained from published sources and vaccine prices were taken from the Pan-American Health Organization Revolving Fund. Vaccine coverage was assumed to be 90% based on Colombia data.Results: Using PHiD-CV in the NIP in Colombia would reduce the estimated cost for treating pneumococcal disease by US$46.1 m over the 2020-2024 period (US$40.2 m using PCV-13), with a budget impact of US$100.1 m for PHiD-CV (US$121.4 m for PCV-13), and would cost US$3.1 m less per year on vaccine doses than using PCV-13.Conclusion: These findings are potentially valuable for the selection of vaccines for their national immunization programs under conditions of budgetary constraint.

The economic burden of measles in children under five in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: This study estimated the economic cost of treating measles in children under-5 in Bangladesh from the caregiver, government, and societal perspectives. METHOD: We conducted an incidence-based study using an ingredient-based approach. We surveyed the administrative staff and the healthcare professionals at the facilities, recording their estimates supported by administrative data from the healthcare perspective. We conducted 100 face-to-face caregiver interviews at discharge and phone interviews 7 to 14 days post-discharge to capture all expenses, including time costs related to measles. All costs are in 2018 USD ($). RESULTS: From a societal perspective, a hospitalized and ambulatory case of measles cost $159 and $18, respectively. On average, the government spent $22 per hospitalized case of measles. At the same time, caregivers incurred $131 and $182 in economic costs, including $48 and $83 in out-of-pocket expenses in public and private not-for-profit facilities, respectively. Seventy-eight percent of the poorest caregivers faced catastrophic health expenditures compared to 21% of the richest. In 2018, 2263 cases of measles were confirmed, totaling $348,073 in economic costs to Bangladeshi society, with $121,842 in out-of-pocket payments for households. CONCLUSION: The resurgence of measles outbreaks is a substantial cost for society, requiring significant short-term public expenditures, putting households into a precarious financial situation. Improving vaccination coverage in areas where it is deficient (Sylhet division in our study) would likely alleviate most of this burden.

The economic burden of measles in children under five in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: There is very limited evidence about the economic cost of measles in low-income countries. We estimated the cost of treating measles in Uganda from a societal perspective. METHODS: We conducted an incidence-based cost-of-illness study in Uganda. We surveyed the facility staff, recording hospital-related expenditures for measles patients. We interviewed caregivers of children with measles at 48 selected healthcare facilities. We conducted phone interviews with caregivers 7-14 days post-discharge to capture additional out-of-pocket expenses and time costs. RESULTS: From a societal perspective, a hospitalized and an ambulatory episode of measles cost 2018 US$ 60 and $15, respectively. The government spent on average $12 and $5 per hospitalized and ambulatory episode of measles. Including both public and private facilities, caregivers incurred approximately $44 in economic costs, including $23 in out-of-pocket expenses. In 2018, 2614 cases of measles were confirmed, resulting in $135,627 in societal costs, including $59,357 in economic costs to Ugandan households. CONCLUSION: This cost-of-illness study is the first to use empirical methods to quantify the economic burden of measles in a low-income country. Information related to the cost of treating measles is important for guiding decisions related to changes in measles control and prevention.

Return On Investment From Immunization Against 10 Pathogens In 94 Low- And Middle-Income Countries, 2011-30.

Estimating the value of global investment in immunization programs is critical to helping decision makers plan and mobilize immunization programs and allocate resources required to realize their full benefits. We estimated economic benefits using cost-of-illness and value-of-a-statistical-life approaches and combined this estimation with immunization program costs to derive the return on investment from immunization programs against ten pathogens for ninety-four low- and middle-income countries for the period 2011-30. Using the cost-of-illness approach, return on investment for one dollar invested in immunization against our ten pathogens was 26.1 for the ninety-four countries from 2011 to 2020 and 19.8 from 2021 to 2030. Using the value-of-a-statistical-life approach, return on investment was 51.0 from 2011 to 2020 and 52.2 from 2021 to 2030. The results demonstrate continued high return on investment from immunization programs. The return-on-investment estimates from this study will inform country policy makers and decision makers in funding agencies and will contribute to efforts to mobilize resources for immunization. Realization of the full benefits of immunization will depend on sustained investment in and commitment to immunization programs.

Cost of Nine Pediatric Infectious Illnesses in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review of Cost-of-Illness Studies.

BACKGROUND: Cost-of-illness data from empirical studies provide insights into the use of healthcare resources including both expenditures and the opportunity cost related to receiving treatment. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this systematic review was to gather cost data and relevant parameters for hepatitis B, pneumonia, meningitis, encephalitis caused by Japanese encephalitis, rubella, yellow fever, measles, influenza, and acute gastroenteritis in children in low- and middle-income countries. DATA SOURCES: Peer-reviewed studies published in public health, medical, and economic journals indexed in PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, and EconLit. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTIONS: Studies must (1) be peer reviewed, (2) be published in 2000-2016, (3) provide cost data for one of the nine diseases in children aged under 5 years in low- and middle-income countries, and (4) generated from primary data collection. LIMITATIONS: We cannot exclude missing a few articles in our review. Measures were taken to reduce this risk. Several articles published since 2016 are omitted from the systematic review results, these articles are included in the discussion. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS: The review yielded 37 articles and 267 sets of cost estimates. We found no cost-of-illness studies with cost estimates for hepatitis B, measles, rubella, or yellow fever from primary data. Most estimates were from countries in Gavi preparatory (28%) and accelerated (28%) transition, followed by those who are initiating self-financing (22%) and those not eligible for Gavi support (19%). Thirteen articles compared household expenses to manage illnesses with income and two articles with other household expenses, such as food, clothing, and rent. An episode of illness represented 1-75% of the household's monthly income or 10-83% of its monthly expenses. Articles that presented both household and government perspectives showed that most often governments incurred greater costs than households, including non-medical and indirect costs, across countries of all income statuses, with a few notable exceptions. Although limited for low- and middle-income country settings, cost estimates generated from primary data collection provided a 'real-world' estimate of the economic burden of vaccine-preventable diseases. Additional information on whether common situations preventing the application of official clinical guidelines (such as medication stock-outs) occurred would help reveal deficiencies in the health system. Improving the availability of cost-of-illness evidence can inform the public policy agenda about healthcare priorities and can help to operationalize the healthcare budget in local health systems to respond adequately to the burden of illness in the community.

A review of the economic evidence of Aedes-borne arboviruses and Aedes-borne arboviral disease prevention and control strategies.

Introduction:Aedes-borne arboviruses contributes substantially to the disease and cost burden.Areas covered: We performed a systematic review of the economic evidence surrounding aedes-borne arboviruses and strategies to prevent and control these diseases to inform disease control policy decisions and research directions. We searched four databases covering an 18-year period (2000-2018) to identify arboviral disease-related cost of illness studies, cost studies of vector control and prevention strategies, cost-effectiveness analyses and cost-benefit analyses. We identified 74 published studies that revealed substantial global total costs in yellow fever virus and dengue virus ranging from 2.1 to 57.3 billion USD. Cost studies of vector control and surveillance programs are limited, but a few studies found that costs of vector control programs ranged from 5.62 to 73.5 million USD. Cost-effectiveness evidence was limited across Aedes-borne diseases, but generally found targeted dengue vaccination programs cost-effective. This review revealed insufficient economic evidence for vaccine introduction and implementation of surveillance and vector control programs.Expert opinion: Evidence of the economic burden of aedes-borne arboviruses and the economic impact of strategies for arboviral disease prevention and control is critical to inform policy decisions and to secure continued financial support for these preventive and control measures.

A Scoping Review of Investment Cases for Vaccines and Immunization Programs.

BACKGROUND: Many investment cases have recently been published intending to show the value of new health investments, but without consistent methodological approaches. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a scoping review of existing investment cases (using vaccines and immunization programs as an example), identify common characteristics that define these investment cases, and examine their role within the broader context of the vaccine development and introduction. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted from January 1980 to November 2017 to identify investment cases in the area of vaccines and immunization programs from gray literature and electronic bibliographic databases. Investment case outcomes, objectives, key variables, target audiences, and funding sources were extracted and analyzed according to their reporting frequency. RESULTS: We found 24 investment cases, and most of them aim to provide information for decisions (12 cases) or advocate for a specific agenda (9 cases). Outcomes presented fell into 4 broad categories-burden of disease, cost of investment, impact of investment, and other considerations for implementation. Number of deaths averted (70%), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (67%), and reduction in health and socioeconomic inequalities (54%) were the most frequently reported outcome measures for impact of investment. Health system capacity (79%) and vaccine financing landscape (75%) were the most common considerations for implementation. A sizable proportion (41.4%) of investment cases did not reveal their funding sources. CONCLUSIONS: This review describes information that is critical to decision making about resource mobilization and allocation concerning vaccines. Global efforts to harmonize investment cases more broadly will increase transparency and comparability.

Forecasting Demand for the Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine in Low- and Middle-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) released a position paper in March 2018 calling for integration of a novel typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) into routine immunization along with catch-up campaigns for children up to age 15. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has committed funding to help resource-constrained countries introduce this vaccine. In this article, the Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium forecasts demand if WHO recommendations are followed. METHODS: We built a model of global TCV introductions between 2020 and 2040 to estimate the demand of the vaccine for 133 countries. We estimated each country's year of introduction by examining its estimated incidence of typhoid fever, its history of introducing new vaccines, and any knowledge we have of its engagement with typhoid prevention, including intention to apply for Gavi funding. Our model predicted use in routine infant vaccination as well as campaigns targeting varying proportions of the unvaccinated population up to 15 years of age. RESULTS: Between 2020 and 2025, demand will predominantly come from African countries, many receiving Gavi support. After that, Asian countries generate most demand until 2030, when campaigns are estimated to end. Demand will then track the birth cohort of participating countries, suggesting an annual routine demand between 90 and 100 million doses. Peak demand is likely to occur between 2023 and 2026, approaching 300 million annual doses if campaign implementation is high. CONCLUSIONS: In our analysis, target population for catch-up campaigns is the main driver of uncertainty. At peak demand, there is some risk of exceeding presently estimated peak production capacity. Therefore, it will be important to carefully coordinate introductions, especially when accompanied by campaigns targeting large proportions of the eligible population.

Poverty reduction and equity benefits of introducing or scaling up measles, rotavirus and pneumococcal vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Beyond their impact on health, vaccines can lead to large economic benefits. While most economic evaluations of vaccines have focused on the health impact of vaccines at a national scale, it is critical to understand how their impact is distributed along population subgroups. METHODS: We build a financial risk protection model to evaluate the impact of immunisation against measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus for birth cohorts vaccinated over 2016-2030 for three scenarios in 41 Gavi-eligible countries: no immunisation, current immunisation coverage forecasts and the current immunisation coverage enhanced with funding support. We distribute modelled disease cases per socioeconomic group and derive the number of cases of: (1) catastrophic health costs (CHCs) and (2) medical impoverishment. RESULTS: In the absence of any vaccine coverage, the number of CHC cases attributable to measles, severe pneumococcal disease and severe rotavirus would be approximately 18.9 million, 6.6 million and 2.2 million, respectively. Expanding vaccine coverage would reduce this number by up to 90%, 30% and 40% in each case. More importantly, we find a higher share of CHC incidence among the poorest quintiles who consequently benefit more from vaccine expansion. CONCLUSION: Our findings contribute to the understanding of how vaccines can have a broad economic impact. In particular, we find that immunisation programmes can reduce the proportion of households facing catastrophic payments from out-of-pocket health expenses, mainly in lower socioeconomic groups. Thus, vaccines could have an important role in poverty reduction.

The Equity Impact Vaccines May Have On Averting Deaths And Medical Impoverishment In Developing Countries.

With social policies increasingly directed toward enhancing equity through health programs, it is important that methods for estimating the health and economic benefits of these programs by subpopulation be developed, to assess both equity concerns and the programs' total impact. We estimated the differential health impact (measured as the number of deaths averted) and household economic impact (measured as the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted) of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis indicated that benefits across these vaccines would accrue predominantly in the lowest income quintiles. Policy makers should be informed about the large health and economic distributional impact that vaccines could have, and they should view vaccination policies as potentially important channels for improving health equity. Our results provide insight into the distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases and the health benefits associated with their prevention.

Features of Dengue and Chikungunya Infections of Colombian Children under 24 Months of Age Admitted to the Emergency Department.

We aimed to assess clinical and laboratory differences between dengue and chikungunya in children <24 months of age in a comparative study. We collected retrospective clinical and laboratory data confirmed by NS1/IgM for dengue for 19 months (1 January 2013 to 17 August 2014). Prospective data for chikungunya confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction were collected for 4 months (22 September 2014-14 December 2014). Sensitivity and specificity [with 95% confidence interval (CI)] were reported for each disease diagnosis. A platelet count <150 000 cells/ml at emergency admission best characterized dengue, with a sensitivity of 67% (95% CI, 53-79) and specificity of 95% (95% CI, 82-99). The algorithm developed with classification and regression tree analysis showed a sensitivity of 93% (95% CI, 68-100) and specificity of 38% (95% CI, 9-76) to diagnose dengue. Our study provides potential differential characteristics between chikungunya and dengue in young children, especially low platelet counts.

Geospatial Planning and the Resulting Economic Impact of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Introduction in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Research has shown that the distance to the nearest immunization location can ultimately prevent someone from getting immunized. With the introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine throughout the world, a major question is whether the target populations can readily access immunization. METHODS: In anticipation of HPV vaccine introduction in Mozambique, a country with a 2015 population of 25,727,911, our team developed Strategic Integrated Geo-temporal Mapping Application) to determine the potential economic impact of HPV immunization. We quantified how many people in the target population are reachable by the 1377 existing immunization locations, how many cannot access these locations, and the potential costs and disease burden averted by immunization. RESULTS: If the entire 2015 cohort of 10-year-old girls goes without HPV immunization, approximately 125 (111-139) new cases of HPV 16,18-related cervical cancer are expected in the future. If each health center covers a catchment area with a 5-km radius (ie, if people travel up to 5 km to obtain vaccines), then 40% of the target population could be reached to prevent 50 (44-55) cases, 178 (159-198) disability-adjusted life years, and US $202,854 (US $140,758-323,693) in health care costs and lost productivity. At higher catchment area radii, additional increases in catchment area radius raise population coverage with diminishing returns. CONCLUSIONS: Much of the population in Mozambique is unable to reach any existing immunization location, thereby reducing the potential impact of HPV vaccine. The geospatial information system analysis can assist in planning vaccine introduction strategies to maximize access and help the population reap the maximum benefits from an immunization program.

Decision-Tree Model for Support of Health Policy Choices Based on Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) Program Outcomes.

Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) has the potential to save lives in low-income countries. We have developed a computational model and web-based decision support software for comparing cost-benefit tradeoffs from alternative PCV program designs, considering their direct and indirect effects on early childhood populations in resource-poor settings. This supports policy-makers in estimating potential health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of different vaccination program strategies for a wide range of population coverage and vaccine effectiveness assumptions.