Traversing the land-sea interface: A climate change risk assessment of terrestrially breeding marine predators.

Terrestrially breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change worldwide. These central-place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to evaluate climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait-based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable assessment framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk. We identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes, as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species, were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at-risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less-studied hazards, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given that monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land-dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season.

A quantitative assessment of continuous versus structured methods for the detection of marine mammals and seabirds via opportunistic shipboard surveys.

Marine monitoring efforts are increasingly supported by opportunistic shipboard surveys. However, opportunistic survey methods often require adaptation to suit the vessel and the operations being conducted onboard. Whilst best-practice techniques for surveying marine wildlife on vessels of opportunity are yet to be established, testing and development of alternative methods can provide means for capturing ecological information in otherwise under-surveyed areas. Explicitly, survey methods can be improved while baseline ecological data for new regions are gathered simultaneously. Herein, we tested different survey approaches on a vessel of opportunity in a remote offshore area where little is known about the community composition of top-order marine vertebrate predators: western and south-western Tasmania, Australia. We found that continuous surveys provide greater species counts than structured "snapshot" surveys over the course of a voyage, but that structured surveys can be more practical when managing factors such as observer fatigue. Moreover, we provide a baseline dataset on the marine vertebrate community encountered in western and south-western Tasmania. This information will be critically important for industry and conservation management objectives, and is key to our understanding of the offshore ecosystem around Tasmania.

Extreme polygyny results in intersex differences in age-dependent survival of a highly dimorphic marine mammal.

Developmental differences in vital rates are especially profound in polygamous mating systems. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) are highly dimorphic and extremely polygynous marine mammals. A demographic model, supported by long-term capture-mark-recapture records, investigated the influence of sex and age on survival in this species. The study revealed clear differences between female and male age-dependent survival rates. Overall juvenile survival estimates were stable around 80-85% for both sexes. However, male survival estimates were 5-10% lower than females in the same age classes until 8 years of age. At this point, male survival decreased rapidly to 50% ± 10% while female estimates remained constant at 80% ± 5%. Different energetic requirements could underpin intersex differences in adult survival. However, the species' strong sexual dimorphism diverges during early juvenile development when sex-specific survival rates were less distinct. Maximizing growth is especially advantageous for males, with size being a major determinant of breeding probability. Maturing males may employ a high-risk high-reward foraging strategy to compensate for extensive sexual selection pressures and sex-specific energetic needs. Our findings suggest sex-specific adult survival is a result of in situ ecological interactions and evolutionary specialization associated with being a highly polygynous marine predator.

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems.

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a "foresighting/hindcasting" technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The "business-as-usual" future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:(i)proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation;(ii)supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation;(iii)enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management;(iv)investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks;(v)deploying marine-based renewable energy;(vi)deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies;(vii)developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and(viii)deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09678-4.

Connecting to the oceans: supporting ocean literacy and public engagement.

Improved public understanding of the ocean and the importance of sustainable ocean use, or ocean literacy, is essential for achieving global commitments to sustainable development by 2030 and beyond. However, growing human populations (particularly in mega-cities), urbanisation and socio-economic disparity threaten opportunities for people to engage and connect directly with ocean environments. Thus, a major challenge in engaging the whole of society in achieving ocean sustainability by 2030 is to develop strategies to improve societal connections to the ocean. The concept of ocean literacy reflects public understanding of the ocean, but is also an indication of connections to, and attitudes and behaviours towards, the ocean. Improving and progressing global ocean literacy has potential to catalyse the behaviour changes necessary for achieving a sustainable future. As part of the Future Seas project (https://futureseas2030.org/), this paper aims to synthesise knowledge and perspectives on ocean literacy from a range of disciplines, including but not exclusive to marine biology, socio-ecology, philosophy, technology, psychology, oceanography and human health. Using examples from the literature, we outline the potential for positive change towards a sustainable future based on knowledge that already exists. We focus on four drivers that can influence and improve ocean literacy and societal connections to the ocean: (1) education, (2) cultural connections, (3) technological developments, and (4) knowledge exchange and science-policy interconnections. We explore how each driver plays a role in improving perceptions of the ocean to engender more widespread societal support for effective ocean management and conservation. In doing so, we develop an ocean literacy toolkit, a practical resource for enhancing ocean connections across a broad range of contexts worldwide.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Finding mesopelagic prey in a changing Southern Ocean.

Mesopelagic fish and squid occupy ocean depths extending below the photic zone and their vertical migrations represent a massive pathway moving energy and carbon through the water column. Their spatio-temporal distribution is however, difficult to map across remote regions particularly the vast Southern Ocean. This represents a key gap in understanding biogeochemical processes, marine ecosystem structure, and how changing ocean conditions will affect marine predators, which depend upon mesopelagic prey. We infer mesopelagic prey vertical distribution and relative abundance in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean (20° to 130°E) with a novel approach using predator-derived indices. Fourteen years of southern elephant seal tracking and dive data, from the open ocean between the Antarctic Polar Front and the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current front, clearly show that the vertical distribution of mesopelagic prey is influenced by the physical hydrographic processes that structure their habitat. Mesopelagic prey have a more restricted vertical migration and higher relative abundance closer to the surface where Circumpolar Deep Water rises to shallower depths. Combining these observations with a future projection of Southern Ocean conditions we show that changes in the coupling of surface and deep waters will potentially redistribute mesopelagic prey. These changes are small overall, but show important spatial variability: prey will increase in relative abundance to the east of the Kerguelen Plateau but decrease to the west. The consequences for deep-diving specialists such as elephant seals and whales over this time scale will likely be minor, but the changes in mesoscale vertical energy flow have implications for predators that forage within the mesopelagic zone as well as the broader pelagic ecosystem.

Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget.

Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model's ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals.

Bio-physical characterisation of polynyas as a key foraging habitat for juvenile male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica.

Antarctic coastal polynyas are persistent open water areas in the sea ice zone, and regions of high biological productivity thought to be important foraging habitat for marine predators. This study quantified southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) habitat use within and around the polynyas of the Prydz Bay region (63°E- 88°E) in East Antarctica, and examined the bio-physical characteristics structuring polynyas as foraging habitat. Output from a climatological regional ocean model was used to provide context for in situ temperature-salinity vertical profiles collected by tagged elephant seals and to characterise the physical properties structuring polynyas. Biological properties were explored using remotely-sensed surface chlorophyll (Chl-a) and, qualitatively, historical fish assemblage data. Spatially gridded residence time of seals was examined in relation to habitat characteristics using generalized additive mixed models. The results showed clear polynya usage during early autumn and increasingly concentrated usage during early winter. Bathymetry, Chl-a, surface net heat flux (representing polynya location), and bottom temperature were identified as significant bio-physical predictors of the spatio-temporal habitat usage. The findings from this study confirm that the most important marine habitats for juvenile male southern elephant seals within Prydz Bay region are polynyas. A hypothesis exists regarding the seasonal evolution of primary productivity, coupling from surface to subsurface productivity and supporting elevated rates of secondary production in the upper water column during summer-autumn. An advancement to this hypothesis is proposed here, whereby this bio-physical coupling is likely to extend throughout the water column as it becomes fully convected during autumn-winter, to also promote pelagic-benthic linkages important for benthic foraging within polynyas.

Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota.

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.

Non-Newtonian blood flow in human right coronary arteries: transient simulations.

This study looks at pulsatile blood flow through four different right coronary arteries, which have been reconstructed from biplane angiograms. A non-Newtonian blood model (the Generalised Power Law), as well as the usual Newtonian model of blood viscosity, is used to study the wall shear stress in each of these arteries over the entire cardiac cycle. The difference between Newtonian and non-Newtonian blood models is also studied over the whole cardiac cycle using the recently generalised global non-Newtonian importance factor. In addition, the flow is studied by considering paths of massless particles introduced into the flow field. The study shows that, when studying the wall shear stress distribution for transient blood flow in arteries, the use of a Newtonian blood model is a reasonably good approximation. However, to study the flow within the artery in greater detail, a non-Newtonian model is more appropriate.

Non-Newtonian blood flow in human right coronary arteries: steady state simulations.

This study looks at blood flow through four different right coronary arteries, which have been reconstructed from bi-plane angiograms. Five non-Newtonian blood models, as well as the usual Newtonian model of blood viscosity, are used to study the wall shear stress in each of these arteries at a particular point in the cardiac cycle. It was found that in the case of steady flow in a given artery, the pattern of wall shear stress is consistent across all models. The magnitude of wall shear stress, however, is influenced by the model used and correlates with graphs of shear stress versus strain for each model. For mid-range velocities of around 0.2 m s(-1) the models are virtually indistinguishable. Local and global non-Newtonian importance factors are introduced, in an attempt to quantify the types of flows where non-Newtonian behaviour is significant. It is concluded that, while the Newtonian model of blood viscosity is a good approximation in regions of mid-range to high shear, it is advisable to use the Generalised Power Law model (which tends to the Newtonian model in those shear ranges in any case) in order to achieve better approximation of wall shear stress at low shear.