Time-Varying Effect Models for Examining Age-Dynamic Associations in Gerontological Research.

OBJECTIVES: Dynamic processes unfolding over later adulthood are of prime interest to gerontological researchers. Time-varying effect modeling (TVEM) accommodates dynamic change trajectories, but its use in gerontological research is limited. We introduce and demonstrate TVEM with an empirical example based on the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS). METHODS: We examined (a) age-varying prevalence of past month elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety and (b) age-varying associations between older adults' elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety and needing help with basic activities of daily living and educational attainment. RESULTS: The proportion of participants reporting elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety in the past month increased gradually from 23-29% across the ages 70-92. Individuals needing help with ADLs had higher odds of reporting elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety, however the association was strongest for those in their 60s versus 80s. Across all ages, adults with lower education levels had higher odds of reporting elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety, an association that also varied by age. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated TVEM's value for studying dynamic associations that vary across chronological age. With the recent availability of free, user-friendly software for implementing TVEM, gerontological researchers have a new tool for exploring complex change processes that characterize older adults' development.

Perceived dementia risk and advance care planning among older adults.

BACKGROUND: Although advance care planning (ACP) is beneficial if dementia develops, and virtually all older adults are at risk for this disease, older adults do not consistently engage in ACP. Health behavior models have highlighted the importance of perceived susceptibility to medical conditions in motivating behavior. Following these models, we sought to determine how often older adults believe they are not at risk of developing dementia and to examine the association between perceived dementia risk and ACP participation. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of community-dwelling adults without cognitive impairment, aged ≥65 years, who were interviewed for the Health and Retirement Study in 2016 and asked about their perceived dementia risk (n = 711). Perceived dementia risk was ascertained with this question: "on a scale of 0 to 100, what is the percent chance that you will develop dementia sometime in the future?" We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression to evaluate the association between perceived risk (0% versus >0%) and completion of a living will, appointment of a durable power of attorney for healthcare decisions, and discussion of treatment preferences. RESULTS: Among respondents, 10.5% reported a perceived dementia risk of 0%. Perceived risk of 0% was associated with lower odds of completing a living will (OR 0.53; 95% CI, 0.30-0.93) and discussing treatment preferences (OR 0.51; 95% CI, 0.28-0.93) but not appointment of a durable power of attorney (OR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.42-1.39). Many respondents with perceived dementia risk >0% had not completed ACP activities, including a substantial minority of those with perceived risk >50%. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with no perceived dementia risk are less likely to participate in several forms of ACP, but the fact that many older adults with high levels of perceived risk had not completed ACP activities suggests that efforts beyond raising risk awareness are needed to increase engagement.

Outcome Goals and Health Care Preferences of Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions.

Importance: Older adults with multiple chronic conditions (MCCs) vary in their health outcome goals and the health care that they prefer to receive to achieve these goals. Objective: To describe the outcome goals and health care preferences of this population with MCCs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included participants in the Patient Priorities Care study who underwent health priorities identification from February 1, 2017, to August 31, 2018, in a primary care practice. Patients eligible to participate were 65 years or older, English speaking, and had at least 3 chronic conditions; in addition, they used at least 10 medications, saw at least 2 specialists, or had at least 2 emergency department visits or 1 hospitalization during the past year. Of 236 eligible patients, 163 (69%) agreed to participate in this study. Data were analyzed from August 1 to October 31, 2020. Exposures: Guided by facilitators, participants identified their core values, as many as 3 actionable and realistic outcome goals, health-related barriers to these goals, and as many as 3 helpful and 3 bothersome health care activities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Frequencies were ascertained for outcome goals and health care preferences. Preferences included health care activities (medications, health care visits, procedures, diagnostic tests, and self-management) reported as either helpful or bothersome. Results: Most of the 163 participants were White (158 [96.9%]) and women (109 [66.9%]), with a mean (SD) age of 77.6 (7.6) years. Of 459 goals, the most common encompassed meals and other activities with family and friends (111 [24.2%]), shopping (28 [6.1%]), and exercising (21 [4.6%]). Twenty individuals (12.3%) desired to live independently without specifying necessary activities. Of 312 barriers identified, the most common were pain (128 [41.0%]), fatigue (45 [14.4%]), unsteadiness (42 [13.5%]), and dyspnea (19 [6.1%]). Similar proportions of patients identified at least 1 medication that was helpful (130 [79.8%]) or bothersome (128 [78.5%]). Medications most commonly cited as helpful were pain medications, including nonopiods (36 of 55 users [65.5%]) and opioids (15 of 27 users [55.6%]); sleep medications (27 of 51 users [52.9%]); and respiratory inhalants (19 of 45 [42.2%]). Most often mentioned as bothersome were statins (25 of 97 users [25.8%]) and antidepressants (13 of 40 users [32.5%]). Thirty-two participants (19.6%) reported using too many medications. Health care visits were identified as helpful by 43 participants (26.4%); 15 (9.2%) reported too many visits. Procedures were named helpful by 38 participants (23.3%); 24 (14.7%) cited unwanted procedures. Among 48 participants with diabetes, monitoring of glucose levels was doable for 18 (37.5%) and too bothersome for 9 (18.8%). Conclusions and Relevance: Participants identified realistic and actionable goals while varying in health care activities deemed helpful or bothersome. The goals and health care preferences of more diverse populations must be explored. Previous work suggests that clinicians can use this information in decision-making.

Older Adults without Desired Surrogates in a Nationally Representative Sample.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Little is known about older adults who have intact capacity but do not have a desired surrogate to make decisions if their capacity becomes impaired. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of a nationally representative sample. SETTING: National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (NSHAP), 2005-2006. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling older adults without known cognitive impairment, aged 57 to 85, interviewed as part of NSHAP (n = 2,767). MEASUREMENTS: We examined demographic, medical, and social connectedness characteristics associated with answering "no" to this question: "Do you have someone who you would like to make medical decisions for you if you were unable, as for example if you were seriously injured or very sick?" Because many states permit nuclear family to make decisions for persons with no legally appointed health care agent, we used logistic regression to identify factors associated with individuals who were ill suited to this paradigm in the sense that they had nuclear family but did not have a desired surrogate. RESULTS: Among NSHAP respondents, 7.5% (95% confidence interval = 6.4-8.7) did not have a desired surrogate. Nearly 90% of respondents without desired surrogates had nuclear family. Compared with respondents with desired surrogates, those without desired surrogates had lower indicators of social connectedness. On average, however, they had four confidants, approximately 70% socialized at least monthly, and more than 90% could discuss their health with a confidant. Among respondents who had nuclear family, few characteristics distinguished those with and without desired surrogates. CONCLUSION: Nearly 8% of older adults did not have a desired surrogate. Most had nuclear family and were not socially disconnected. Older adults should be asked explicitly about a desired surrogate, and strategies are needed to identify surrogates for those who do not have family or would not choose family to make decisions for them.

Association of Patient Priorities-Aligned Decision-Making With Patient Outcomes and Ambulatory Health Care Burden Among Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions: A Nonrandomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Health care may be burdensome and of uncertain benefit for older adults with multiple chronic conditions (MCCs). Aligning health care with an individual's health priorities may improve outcomes and reduce burden. Objective: To evaluate whether patient priorities care (PPC) is associated with a perception of more goal-directed and less burdensome care compared with usual care (UC). Design, Setting, and Participants: Nonrandomized clinical trial with propensity adjustment conducted at 1 PPC and 1 UC site of a Connecticut multisite primary care practice that provides care to almost 15% of the state's residents. Participants included 163 adults aged 65 years or older who had 3 or more chronic conditions cared for by 10 primary care practitioners (PCPs) trained in PPC and 203 similar patients who received UC from 7 PCPs not trained in PPC. Participant enrollment occurred between February 1, 2017, and March 31, 2018; follow-up extended for up to 9 months (ended September 30, 2018). Interventions: Patient priorities care, an approach to decision-making that includes patients' identifying their health priorities (ie, specific health outcome goals and health care preferences) and clinicians aligning their decision-making to achieve these health priorities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes included change in patients' Older Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (O-PACIC), CollaboRATE, and Treatment Burden Questionnaire (TBQ) scores; electronic health record documentation of decision-making based on patients' health priorities; medications and self-management tasks added or stopped; and diagnostic tests, referrals, and procedures ordered or avoided. Results: Of the 366 patients, 235 (64.2%) were female and 350 (95.6%) were white. Compared with the UC group, the PPC group was older (mean [SD] age, 74.7 [6.6] vs 77.6 [7.6] years) and had lower physical and mental health scores. At follow-up, PPC participants reported a 5-point greater decrease in TBQ score than those who received UC (ß [SE], -5.0 [2.04]; P = .01) using a weighted regression model with inverse probability of PCP assignment weights; no differences were seen in O-PACIC or CollaboRATE scores. Health priorities-based decisions were mentioned in clinical visit notes for 108 of 163 (66.3%) PPC vs 0 of 203 (0%) UC participants. Compared with UC patients, PPC patients were more likely to have medications stopped (weighted comparison, 52.0% vs 33.8%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.43-2.95) and less likely to have self-management tasks (57.5% vs 62.1%; AOR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.41-0.84) and diagnostic tests (80.8% vs 86.4%; AOR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.12-0.40) ordered. Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest that patient priorities care may be associated with reduced treatment burden and unwanted health care. Care aligned with patients' priorities may be feasible and effective for older adults with MCCs. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03600389.

Trajectories of smoking from adolescence to early adulthood and their psychosocial risk factors.

OBJECTIVE: To explore patterns of persistence and change in smoking behavior as well as risk factors associated with the developmental course of smoking from age 13 to 25. DESIGN: Data from the public use sample of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 5,789) were analyzed using semiparametric group-based modeling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Smoking quantity-frequency in the past 30 days. RESULTS: Six distinct smoking trajectories were identified: nonsmokers, experimenters, stable light smokers, quitters, late escalators, and stable high smokers. Baseline risk factors that were associated with greater likelihood of membership in all of the smoking trajectory groups compared with nonsmokers included alcohol use, deviance, peer smoking, and (with the exception of the late escalators) drug use. Deviance, peer smoking, and alcohol and drug use also distinguished the likelihood of membership among several of the 5 smoking trajectory groups. CONCLUSION: The results add to basic etiologic research on developmental pathways of smoking in adolescence and young adulthood by providing evidence of heterogeneity in smoking behavior and prospectively linking different patterns of risk factors with the probability of trajectory group membership.

Risk and protective factors associated with trajectories of depressed mood from adolescence to early adulthood.

This study used semi-parametric group-based modeling to explore unconditional and conditional trajectories of self-reported depressed mood from ages 12 to 25 years. Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 11,559), 4 distinct trajectories were identified: no depressed mood, stable low depressed mood, early high declining depressed mood, and late escalating depressed mood. Baseline risk factors associated with greater likelihood of membership in depressed mood trajectory groups compared with the no depressed mood group included being female, Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino American, or Pacific Islander or Asian American; having lower socioeconomic status; using alcohol, tobacco, or other drugs on a weekly basis; and engaging in delinquent behavior. Baseline protective factors associated with greater likelihood of membership in the no depressed mood group compared with the depressed mood trajectory groups included 2-parent family structure; feeling connected to parents, peers, or school; and self-esteem. With the exception of delinquent behavior, risk and protective factors also distinguished the likelihood of membership among several of the 3 depressed mood groups. The results add to basic etiologic research regarding developmental pathways of depressed mood in adolescence and young adulthood.