International Differences in the Frequency of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations Reported in Three Clinical Trials.

Rationale: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are an important endpoint in multinational clinical treatment trials, but the observed event rate is often lower than anticipated and appears to vary between countries. Objectives: We investigated whether systematic differences in national exacerbation rates might explain this observed variation. Methods: We reviewed data from three large multicenter international randomized trials conducted over an 18-year period with different designs and clinical severities of COPD, comparing bronchodilator and/or inhaled corticosteroids with bronchodilators alone and/or placebo. Exacerbations were defined by antibiotic and/or oral corticosteroid use (moderate) or need for hospitalization (severe). We calculated crude exacerbation rates in the 30 countries contributing 30 or more patients to at least two trials. We grouped data by exacerbation rate based on their first study contribution. Measurements and Main Results: For the 29,756 patients in 41 countries analyzed, the mean exacerbation rate was two- to threefold different between the highest and lowest tertiles of the recruiting nations. These differences were not explained by demographic features, study protocol, or reported exacerbation history at enrollment. Of the 18 countries contributing to all trials, half of those in the highest and half in the lowest tertiles of exacerbation history remained in these groups across trials. Severe exacerbations showed a different rank order internationally. Conclusions: Countries contributing to COPD trials differ consistently in their reporting of healthcare-defined exacerbations. These differences help explain why large studies have been needed to show differences between treatments that decrease exacerbation risk.

Challenging the obesity paradox: extreme obesity and COPD mortality in the SUMMIT trial.

Populations with COPD demonstrate higher survival in overweight and obese compared with normal weight; the "obesity paradox". Relationships in less-severe COPD are unclear, as is the impact of cardiovascular risk, and few studies include individuals at extremes of obesity. We examined the relationship between body mass index (BMI; defined as underweight: <20 kg·m-2, normal: 20-25 kg·m-2, overweight: 25- <30 kg·m-2, obese class I: 30- <35 kg·m-2, class II: 35- <40 kg·m-2 and class III: ≥40 kg·m-2), morbidity, and mortality in the SUMMIT trial population (n=16 485), characterised by moderate COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk with a substantial proportion with class III obesity. The association between BMI category and time to event was modelled via proportional hazards (reference normal weight) adjusted for demographics and cardiorespiratory disease. Consistent with the paradox, underweight individuals demonstrated higher mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 1.31 (95% CI 1.04-1.64)), with lower mortality among overweight (HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.73)) and obese class I (HR 0.75 (95% CI 0.62-0.90)). However, mortality increased in obese class III (HR 1.36 (95% CI 1.00-1.86)). Death was primarily attributable to cardiovascular causes. Within a large, multinational cohort with moderate COPD and increased cardiovascular risk, the phenomenon of reduced mortality with obesity did not persist at BMI >40 kg·m-2, suggesting that obesity may not remain protective at the extremes in this population.

Pharmacotherapy and Lung Function Decline in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. A Systematic Review.

Rationale: Whether pharmacological therapy alters decline in FEV1 in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease remains controversial. Because pharmacotherapy improves health status, exacerbation rate, and symptoms, it may be unethical to complete placebo-controlled long-term studies aimed at modifying FEV1 decline.Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of placebo-controlled pharmacological trials lasting ≥1 year to address the question of whether therapy alters FEV1 decline.Methods: A literature search for randomized trials that included repeated spirometry with at least one active and one placebo arm was conducted. Articles were excluded if study duration was <1 year, <3 spirometric measurements, or <100 subjects per arm. Study design was assessed using the Jadad score. To combine studies and find the estimated effect, we used random effects methodology to account for both within-study and between-study variation.Measurements and Main Results: There were 33,051 patients in the analysis (active component, n = 21,941; placebo, n = 11,110 in nine studies). The active treatment arms demonstrated a 5.0 ml/yr reduction (95% confidence interval, 0.8-9.1 ml/yr; P < 0.001) in the rate of FEV1 decline compared with the placebo arms. The relative FEV1 differences between active and placebo arms were within the range of differences reported for health status and for the exacerbation rate in the same studies.Conclusions: In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pharmacotherapy ameliorates rate of lung function decline. The relative benefit observed is within the range of those reported for health status and exacerbations in the same studies. Guidelines should be adjusted according to these findings.

FEV1 is a stronger mortality predictor than FVC in patients with moderate COPD and with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Purpose: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Impaired lung function is associated with heightened risk for death, cardiovascular events, and COPD exacerbations. However, it is unclear if forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) differ in predictive value. Patients and Methods: Data from 16,485 participants in the Study to Understand Mortality and Morbidity (SUMMIT) in COPD were analyzed. Patients were grouped into quintiles for each lung function parameter (FEV1 %predicted, FVC %predicted, FEV1/FVC). The four highest quintiles (Q2-Q5) were compared to the lowest (Q1) to assess their relationship with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and moderate-to-severe and severe exacerbations. Cox-regression was used, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, smoking status, previous exacerbations, cardiovascular disease, treatment, and modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score. Results: Compared to Q1 (<53.5% FEV1 predicted), increasing FEV1 quintiles (Q2 53.5-457.5% predicted, Q3 57.5-461.6% predicted, Q4 61.6-465.8% predicted, and Q5 ≥65.8%) were all associated with significantly decreased all-cause mortality (20% (4-34%), 28% (13-40%), 23% (7-36%), and 30% (15-42%) risk reduction, respectively). In contrast, a significant risk reduction (21% (4-35%)) was seen only between Q1 and Q5 quintiles of FVC. Neither FEV1 nor FVC was associated with cardiovascular risk. Increased FEV1 and FEV1/FVC quintiles were also associated with the reduction of moderate-to-severe and severe exacerbations while, surprisingly, the highest FVC quintile was related to the heightened exacerbation risk (28% (8-52%) risk increase). Conclusion: Our results suggest that FEV1 is a stronger predictor for all-cause mortality than FVC in moderate COPD patients with heightened cardiovascular risk and that subjects with moderate COPD have very different risks.

Adjudication of cardiovascular events in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: SUMMIT trial.

BACKGROUND: Adjudicated cause-specific mortality has been used in major trials of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, there is less experience with adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular events as a key efficacy outcome in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease trials. The Study to Understand Mortality and Morbidity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease trial required a Clinical Endpoint Committee to adjudicate the outcomes of modified major adverse cardiovascular events and cause-specific mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: A six-member Clinical Endpoint Committee reviewed adverse event and serious adverse event reports included in a list of 204 Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities terms. Adverse events were triaged by one Clinical Endpoint Committee member, and then reviewed by three reviewers (round 1). If these three disagreed on the adjudication, the event was discussed by the full committee to reach a consensus (round 2). Among 16,485 participants, 48,105 adverse events were reported, among which 3314 were reviewed by the Clinical Endpoint Committee. After triage, 1827 were adjudicated in round 1; 338 required committee consensus in round 2, yielding 450 myocardial infarctions, strokes, unstable anginas or transient ischaemic attacks. Only 20/1627 (1%) non-serious adverse events were adjudicated as cardiovascular events. Only 45/204 Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities terms reviewed yielded cardiovascular events. A total of 430 deaths were adjudicated in round 1 and 631 in round 2, yielding 459 cardiovascular deaths. Adjudication of chest pain and sudden death often required additional information from site investigators. Site assessment of cardiovascular death was moderately specific (501/602 = 83%) but not sensitive (256/459 = 56%). CONCLUSION: A Clinical Endpoint Committee is useful for adjudication of major adverse cardiovascular events in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease trials but requires considerable resources and effort by investigators. This process can be streamlined by reviewing only serious adverse events and filtering by selected Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities terms.

Serum biomarkers and outcomes in patients with moderate COPD: a substudy of the randomised SUMMIT trial.

Rationale: Systemic levels of C reactive protein (CRP), surfactant protein D (SPD), fibrinogen, soluble receptor of activated glycogen end-product (sRAGE) and club cell protein 16 (CC-16) have been associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) outcomes. However, they require validation in different cohorts. Objectives: Relate systemic levels of those proteins to forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) decline, exacerbations, hospitalisations and mortality in COPD patients (FEV1 of ≥50 and ≤70% predicted) and heightened cardiovascular risk in a substudy of the Study to Understand Mortality and MorbidITy trial. Methods: Participants were randomised to daily inhalations of placebo, vilanterol 25 µg (VI), fluticasone furoate 100 µg (FF) or their combination (VI 25/FF 100) and followed quarterly until 1000 deaths in the overall 16 485 participants occurred. Biomarker blood samples were available from 1673 patients. The FEV1 decline (mL/year), COPD exacerbations, hospitalisations and death were determined. Associations between biomarker levels and outcomes were adjusted by age and gender. Results: Systemic levels of CC-16, CRP, sRAGE, SPD and fibrinogen did not relate to baseline FEV1, FEV1 decline, exacerbations or hospitalisations. Fibrinogen and CRP were related to mortality over a median follow-up of 2.3 years. Only the CC-16 changed with study therapy (VI, FF and FF/VI, p<0.01) at 3 months. Conclusions: In COPD, systemic levels of CC-16, CRP, sRAGE, SPD and fibrinogen were not associated with FEV1 decline, exacerbations or hospitalisations. These results cast doubts about the clinical usefulness of the systemic levels of these proteins as surrogate markers of these COPD outcomes. The study confirms that CRP and fibrinogen are associated with increased risk of death in patients with COPD. Trial registration number: NCT01313676.

Association of platelet count with all-cause mortality and risk of cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity in stable COPD.

BACKGROUND: Platelet count is a prognostic indicator in the general population and elderly. Thrombocytosis during acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) has been associated with mortality; however, the relationship between platelet count and mortality in stable COPD is unknown. METHODS: We performed post hoc secondary analysis on a subsample of 1797 patients in the Study to Understand Mortality and Morbidity in COPD (SUMMIT) who had blood samples drawn at baseline. Participants were current or former smokers, 40-80 years old with moderate COPD and history or increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease. The primary outcome was on and post-treatment all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included first-on-treatment moderate/severe AECOPD and on-treatment CV composite event (CV death, myocardial infarction, stroke, unstable angina and transient ischemic attack). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate study endpoint associations with platelet count quintile grouping, continuous platelet count utilizing two-term fractional polynomials, and categories of low, normal and high platelet count (< 150, ≥150 to < 300, ≥300 × 109/L). RESULTS: Patients were followed for 2.3 ± 0.9 years for vital status and 1.6 ± 1.1 years for morbidity endpoints during which 105 (5.8%) died, 651 (36.2%) experienced AECOPD (159 with severe AECOPD) and 86 (4.8%) experienced a CV event. A U-shaped association between platelet count and all-cause mortality was observed. Compared to the third quintile group (Q3) of platelet count, risk of death was increased in the lowest quintile group (Q1; hazard ratio [HR]: 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-3.23) and highest quintile group (Q5; HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 0.89-3.10), though point estimates were imprecise. Using clinical cutoffs, compared with normal platelet counts (≥150 to < 300 × 109/L), risk of all-cause mortality was nominally increased among patients with thrombocytopenia (HR: 1.46; 95%CI: 0.81-2.64) and high platelet count (HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 0.96-2.86). Compared with Q3, CV events were nominally increased for Q5 (HR: 1.71; 95%CI: 0.83-3.49) and Q1 (HR: 1.41; 95%CI: 0.70, 2.85). There was no association between platelet count and AECOPD. CONCLUSIONS: In stable COPD platelet count demonstrated a U-shaped association with increased risk of 3-year all-cause mortality, though a platelet count level above or below which risk of mortality was increased could not be definitively identified. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01313676 .

Impact of pre-enrolment medication use on clinical outcomes in SUMMIT.

The impact of prior treatment on results of clinical trials in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been debated. We used data from the Study to Understand Mortality and Morbidity in COPD Trial to examine the impact of prior treatment on the effects of randomised study drugs on mortality and exacerbations. We used data on 16 417 patients with moderate COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk and information on prior medications to examine the effects of fluticasone furoate (FF), vilanterol (VI) and combined FF/VI compared to placebo on moderate and severe exacerbation as well as mortality. The study was event-driven with a median study exposure of 1.8 years. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01313676. There were no consistent associations between treatment prior to study entry and the effects of FF, VI or FF/VI on exacerbations during the study. However, patients taking inhaled corticosteroids and one or more bronchodilators prior to study entry seemed to have a better effect of active treatments than of placebo on mortality (hazard ratio for FF/VI 0.65, 95% CI 0.48-0.89). Survival in those randomised to placebo was independent of treatment prior to study enrolment. Prior treatment appears to affect treatment effects on mortality but not exacerbations in a randomised controlled trial of patients with COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk.

Cardiac Troponin I and Cardiovascular Risk in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have increased risk of cardiovascular events. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the association between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration and cardiovascular events in patients with COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk. METHODS: In a double-blind randomized controlled trial, 16,485 patients with COPD and cardiovascular disease or risk factors were randomized to once daily inhaled placebo, fluticasone furoate (100 µg), vilanterol (25 µg), or their combination. Plasma high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured in a subgroup of 1,599 patients. Outcomes were on-treatment cardiovascular events and COPD exacerbations over a median of 18 months, and cardiovascular death over a median of 27 months. RESULTS: Baseline plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations were above the limit of detection (1.2 ng/l) in 1,542 (96%) patients. Concentrations were unaffected by inhaled therapies at 3 months (p > 0.05). Compared with the lowest quintile (cardiac troponin <2.3 ng/l), patients in the highest quintile (≥7.7 ng/l) were at greater risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] 3.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3 to 10.1; p = 0.012) and cardiovascular death (HR: 20.1; 95% CI: 2.4 to 165.2; p = 0.005) after adjustment for risk factors. By contrast, there were no differences in exacerbations between quintiles (HR: 1.1; 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.5; p = 0.548). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk, plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations are a specific and major indicator of future cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death. Inhaled therapies did not affect cardiac troponin I concentrations consistent with their neutral effect on mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. (Study to Evaluate the Effect of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol on Survival in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease [SUMMIT]; NCT01313676).

Blood pressure, heart rate, and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the SUMMIT trial.

Aims: To characterize the relationship between blood pressure (BP) or heart rate and mortality and morbidity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods and results: We performed post hoc analysis of baseline BP or heart rate and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in the SUMMIT trial. SUMMIT was a randomized double-blind outcome trial of 16 485 participants (65 ± 8 years, 75% male, and 47% active smokers) enrolled at 1368 sites in 43 countries. Participants with moderate COPD with or at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) were randomized to placebo, long-acting beta agonist, inhaled corticosteroid, or their combination. All-cause mortality increased in relation to high systolic [≥140 mmHg; hazard ratio (HR) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-1.45] or diastolic (≥90 mmHg; HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.59) BP and low systolic (<120 mmHg; HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13-1.63) or diastolic (<80 mmHg; HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00-1.32) BP. Higher heart rates (≥80 per minute; HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.21-1.60) and pulse pressures (≥80 mmHg; HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.07-1.80) were more linearly related to increases in all-cause mortality. The risks of cardiovascular events followed similar patterns to all-cause mortality. Similar findings were observed in subgroups of patients without established CVD. Conclusion: A 'U-shaped' relationship between BP and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events exists in patients with COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk. A linear relationship exists between heart rate and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events in this population. These findings extend the prognostic importance of BP to this growing group of patients and raise concerns that both high and low BP may pose health risks.

Effect of Fluticasone Furoate and Vilanterol on Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Patients with Moderate Airflow Obstruction.

RATIONALE: Inhaled corticosteroids have been shown to decrease exacerbations in patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Their effects in patients with milder airflow obstruction remain unclear. OBJECTIVES: This was an analysis of exacerbations in the SUMMIT (Study to Understand Mortality and Morbidity) study. METHODS: In a double-blind, randomized controlled trial, once-daily inhaled placebo, fluticasone furoate (FF; 100 µg), vilanterol (VI; 25 µg), or the combination of FF/VI was administered. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Exacerbations of COPD were an additional predefined endpoint. A total of 1,368 centers in 43 countries and 16,485 patients with moderate COPD and heightened cardiovascular risk were included in the study. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Compared with placebo, FF/VI reduced the rate of moderate and/or severe exacerbations by 29% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22-35; P < 0.001) and the rate of hospitalized exacerbations by 27% (95% CI, 13-39; P < 0.001). These relative effects were similar regardless of whether subjects had a history of exacerbation in the year before the study or an FEV1 <60% or ≥60% of predicted. The number needed to treat was not influenced by baseline FEV1 but was influenced by the history of exacerbations. FF/VI also reduced the rate of exacerbations treated with corticosteroids alone or with corticosteroids and antibiotics but not the rates of those treated with antibiotics alone. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with moderate chronic airflow obstruction experienced a reduction in exacerbations with FF/VI compared with placebo, irrespective of a history of exacerbations or baseline FEV1. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 01313676; GSK Study number 113782).

First trimester maternal serum placental growth factor levels in twin pregnancies.

BACKGROUND: An understanding of the normal behavior of biochemical markers in twin pregnancies is necessary in order to offer prenatal screening to this subgroup. This study investigates the levels of first trimester maternal serum placental growth factor (PlGF) in twin and singleton pregnancies. METHODS: The PlGF concentrations were measured by an automated assay in the first trimester maternal serum of 440 dichorionic twin, 116 monochorionic twin, and 607 singleton pregnancy samples thawed from frozen storage. RESULTS: The PlGF concentrations in singleton levels were predicted by gestational age, maternal ethnicity, and smoking status. Following the correction for these variables, PlGF levels were, on average, 41% higher in dichorionics, but only 16% higher in monochorionics, compared to singleton pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: First trimester maternal serum PlGF levels are increased in twin pregnancies compared with singleton pregnancies, but to less of an extent than is common with other screening markers, especially in monochorionic twins.

The association between gestational diabetes mellitus and first trimester aneuploidy screening markers.

OBJECTIVE: To establish whether maternal serum first trimester concentrations of PAPP-A and free hCGß are altered in pregnancies that subsequently are diagnosed by an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: Over the period 2009 and 2011, the results for women who had first trimester screening for aneuploidy were matched with those having an oral glucose tolerance test at 22-26 weeks for suspected GDM. Free hCGß, PAPP-A and NT MoMs were compared amongst the group having an OGTT with confirmed GDM and those in which GDM was not confirmed. A second comparison group consisted of all non-aneuploidy singleton pregnancies in which no OGTT was performed. RESULTS: During the three-year period, 27,660 singleton pregnancies were screened of which 7429 cases had an OGTT of which 870 cases were classed as GDM by WHO criteria. There was a significant 7-9% reduction in both PAPP-A and free hCGß MoM in the GDM group compared with either the OGTT non-GDM group or the remaining pregnancies with no known risk factors for evidence of GDM. There was no difference in the NT measurements. CONCLUSIONS: First trimester concentrations of PAPP-A and free hCGß are reduced in pregnancies that subsequently are diagnosed with GDM and may be useful in further screening algorithms for this disorder although the sensitivity alone is quite poor.

Evaluation of a dried blood spot assay to measure prenatal screening markers pregnancy-associated plasma protein a and free ß-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin.

BACKGROUND: First-trimester prenatal screening for aneuploidy by use of dried blood spots (DBSs) may offer practical benefits in settings where the instability of intact human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) is problematic. We evaluated a DBS pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free ß-subunit of hCG (free hCGß) dual assay and compared it to serum screening. METHODS: Hematocrit-corrected DBS PAPP-A and free-hCGß concentrations were measured and compared with serum concentrations in 252 first-trimester samples. Serum intact hCG was also measured and, with serum free hCGß, was used to fit a model to predict serum-equivalent DBS free-hCGß concentrations. In a separate experiment, we investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity during the blood spot drying process. RESULTS: The DBS assay for PAPP-A performed similarly to the serum assay, whereas free-hCGß DBS measurements were consistently higher than in serum. Purifying blood spots of intact hCG suggested that the free-hCGß DBS assay is measuring a composite of free hCGß and additional ß-subunits from intact hCG. The drying experiment showed that increased temperature and relative humidity during the drying process resulted in increased free hCGß and reduced PAPP-A. CONCLUSIONS: Despite measuring additional free hCGß compared to the serum assay, DBS analysis has a role in first-trimester combined screening for trisomy 21.

Accuracy of self-reported smoking status in first trimester aneuploidy screening.

OBJECTIVES: To review the accuracy of self-reporting of smoking status in our first trimester screening population and to assess the levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free-ß human chorionic gonadotropin (free-hCGß) in women who were classified for smoking status by serum cotinine concentrations and self-reporting. METHODS: Cotinine concentration was determined in the stored serum 696 self-reported smokers and 442 self-reported non-smokers. PAPP-A and free-hCGß multiples of the medians (MoMs) determined at screening were reverted to uncorrected for self-reported smoking status. RESULTS: A total of 21.7% of those self-reporting as non-smokers had increased serum cotinine concentrations (using a cut-off of 13.7 ng/mL), indicating a positive smoking status. This under-reporting meant that serum PAPP-A and free-hCGß MoMs were greater reduced in smokers classified by cotinine levels (17.2% and 9.7%) than in those classified by self-reporting (14.6% and 2.8%). Women who were classified as smokers at conception but had stopped at some time afterwards did not have significantly reduced marker MoMs to non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reporting results in under-representation of smoking in our population, resulting in a significant bias and inflated screen-positive rates.