A three-factor model of common early onset psychiatric disorders: temperament, adversity, and dopamine.

Commonly comorbid early onset psychiatric disorders might reflect the varying expression of overlapping risk factors. The mediating processes remain poorly understood, but three factors show some promise: adolescent externalizing traits, early life adversity, and midbrain dopamine autoreceptors. To investigate whether these features acquire greater predictive power when combined, a longitudinal study was conducted in youth who have been followed since birth. Cohort members were invited to participate based on externalizing scores between 11 to 16 years of age. At age 18 (age 18.5 ± 0.6 y.o.), 52 entry criteria meeting volunteers had a 90-min positron emission tomography scan with [18F]fallypride, completed the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, and were assessed with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-5. The three-factor model identified those with a lifetime history of DSM-5 disorders with an overall accuracy of 90.4% (p = 2.4 × 10-5) and explained 91.5% of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [95% CI: .824, 1.000]. Targeting externalizing disorders specifically did not yield a more powerful model than targeting all disorders (p = 0.54). The model remained significant when including data from participants who developed their first disorders during a three-year follow-up period (p = 3.5 × 10-5). Together, these results raise the possibility that a combination of temperamental traits, childhood adversity, and poorly regulated dopamine transmission increases risk for diverse, commonly comorbid, early onset psychiatric problems, predicting this susceptibility prospectively.

Externalizing Risk Pathways for Adolescent Substance Use and Its Developmental Onset: A Canadian Birth Cohort Study: Trajectoires de comportements extériorisés et le risque pour l'initiation et l'usage de substances des adolescents : Une étude de cohorte de naissance canadienne.

OBJECTIVE: Only a minority of drug and alcohol users develops a substance use disorder. Previous studies suggest that this differential vulnerability commonly reflects a developmental trajectory characterized by diverse externalizing behaviors. In this study, we examined the relation between child and adolescent externalizing behaviors and adolescent substance use in a prospectively followed Canadian birth cohort, accounting for the temporal sequence of a wide variety of contributing factors. METHODS: Two hundred and forty-two adolescents followed since birth (date range: 1996 to 2012) were assessed on externalizing behavior (age 17 months to 16 years), alcohol and cannabis use at age 16, age of alcohol use onset, family history of substance use problems, family functioning (age 11 to 15), sensation seeking (age 16), prenatal substance exposure, socioeconomic status (age 1 to 9), and sex. RESULTS: Age of alcohol use onset was predicted by a family history of substance use problems, externalizing traits from ages 6 to 10 and 11 to 16, sensation seeking at age 16, prenatal alcohol and tobacco exposure and family functioning at ages 11 to 15. High frequencies of alcohol and cannabis use at age 16 were both predicted by externalizing traits from ages 11 to 16, a family history of substance use problems and sensation seeking after controlling for other individual, environmental and familial variables. The association between familial substance use problems and substance use during adolescence was partially mediated by externalizing traits from age 11 to 16. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings provide prospective evidence for a developmental risk pathway for adolescent substance use, potentially identifying those who could benefit from early interventions.