HIV and ethnicity in Canada: is the HIV risk-taking behaviour of young foreign-born MSM similar to Canadian born MSM?

There is a dearth of information on the HIV risk-taking behaviour of foreign-born men who have sex with men (MSM) in Canada. This study focused on identifying sexual risk behaviour among MSM who immigrated to Canada and compared them to MSM who were born in Canada. Baseline data from the Omega Cohort in Montreal and the Vanguard Project in Vancouver were combined to form four ethnicity/race analytical categories (n = 1,148): White born in Canada (WBIC), White born outside of Canada, non-White born in Canada (NBIC) and non-White born outside of Canada (NBOC). Psychological, demographic and sexual behaviour characteristics of the groups were similar except: NBOC were more likely to be unemployed, less likely to be tattooed, had fewer bisexual experiences and less likely worried of insufficient funds. WBOC were more likely to report unprotected sex with seropositives and more likely to have had unprotected sex while travelling. NBIC were more likely to have ever sold sex and to have had body piercing. WBOC are at high risk of acquiring as well as transmitting HIV. It is important to consider place of birth in addition to ethnicity when developing programmes to prevent the transmission of HIV.

Drastic elevations in mortality among female injection drug users in a Canadian setting.

The health and social conditions of women living in Vancouver's Downtown Eastside has recently been the focus of substantial international attention. Since few studies have examined rates and correlates of death among addicted women in Canada, we have characterized patterns of mortality among female injection drug users (IDUs) in Vancouver. The Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study (VIDUS) is a prospective open cohort study of IDUs. The analyses presented here, were restricted to women enrolled between May 1996 and May 2002 and who were aged 14 years or older. We estimated cumulative mortality rates using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression was used to calculate univariate and adjusted relative hazards. Between May 1996 and May 2002, 520 female IDUs have been recruited from the Vancouver area among whom 68 died during the study period. Elevated rates of mortality were observed among those who reported, baseline sex-trade involvement, those with HIV-infection at baseline, and those who lived in unstable housing at baseline (all log-rank: p<0.05). In adjusted analyses, HIV infection (RH = 3.09 [95% CI: 1.86-5.11]; p<0.001), unstable housing (RH = 1.74 [95% CI: 1.10-2.86]; p=0.029) and sex-trade involvement (RH = 1.82 [95% CI: 0.95-3.45]; p=0.071) were associated with the time to death. When the number of observed deaths was compared to the number of expected deaths based on the general female population of British Columbia using indirect standardization, the rate of death among female IDUs was elevated by a factor of 47.3 (95% CI: 36.1-58.5). In Vancouver, female IDUs have rates of mortality almost 50 times that of the province's female population. Our findings are consistent with a growing number of reports from other settings internationally, and demonstrate the need for an appropriate evidence-based strategy to address the health and social needs of addicted women.

Surviving the sex trade: a comparison of HIV risk behaviours among street-involved women in two Canadian cities who inject drugs.

In Canada, very little is known about the factors and processes that cause drug-related harm among female intravenous drug users (IDUs). Women who inject drugs and participate in the survival sex trade are considered to be at increased risk for sexual and drug-related harms, including HIV infection. Between September 1999 and September 2000, women participating in the VIDUS cohort in Vancouver and the St. Luc Cohort in Montreal completed interviewer-administered questionnaires. Analyses were conducted to compare the demographic characteristics, sexual risk behaviours, risky injection practices and drug use patterns among women who self-identified as participating in the sex trade with those who did not identify as participating in the sex trade. Logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with exchanging sex for money or drugs. HIV prevalence at the study visit (September 1999-2000) was 29% for sex trade workers and 29.2% for non-sex trade workers. While patterns of sexual risk were similar, the risky injection practice and drug use patterns between sex trade workers and non-sex trade workers were markedly different. Logistic regression analysis of cross-sectional data revealed that independent behaviours associated with the sex trade included: greater than once per day use of heroin (adjusted OR 2.7), smokeable crack cocaine (adjusted OR = 3.3) and borrowing used syringes (adjusted OR = 2.0). Creative, client-driven interventions are urgently needed for women who trade sex for money or for drugs.

Impact of HIV infection on mortality in a cohort of injection drug users.

The prevalence of HIV has been rising among injection drug users (IDUs) and AIDS is now an important cause of death among that population. We tracked mortality and recorded detailed causes of death in the Vancouver Injection Drug Users Study (VIDUS). This is an open cohort of over 1,400 active IDUs that began in May 1996. At enrollment and at semiannual follow-up visits, a trained interviewer administers a detailed semistructured questionnaire. Mortality was recorded during follow-up and detailed causes of death were collected from coroner's reports, hospital records, and the provincial (British Columbia) registry. Causes of death were obtained on 125 participants. Overall, the leading cause of death was overdose accounting for 25% of deaths among HIV-positive participants and 42% among HIV-negative participants. Of the 65 deaths among HIV-positive individuals, 22 (34%) were HIV related. Mortality was associated with older age (adjusted hazards ratio [AHR], 1.03 per year), HIV positivity (AHR, 2.67), injection cocaine use (AHR, 2.23) and methadone treatment (AHR, 0.47). The high rate of HIV in this population has added significantly to the burden of illness and death in this marginalized population.

Rates of disease progression by baseline CD4 cell count and viral load after initiating triple-drug therapy.

CONTEXT: Current recommendations for initiation of antiretroviral therapy in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) are based on CD4 T-lymphocyte cell counts and plasma HIV RNA levels. The relative prognostic value of each marker following initiation of therapy has not been fully characterized. OBJECTIVE: To describe rates of disease progression to death and AIDS or death among patients starting triple-drug antiretroviral therapy, stratified by baseline CD4 cell count and HIV RNA levels. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based analysis of 1219 antiretroviral therapy-naive HIV-positive men and women aged 18 years or older in British Columbia who initiated triple-drug therapy between August 1, 1996, and September 30, 1999. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Cumulative mortality rates from the initiation of triple-drug antiretroviral therapy to September 30, 2000, determined using various CD4 cell and plasma HIV RNA thresholds. RESULTS: As of September 30, 2000, 82 patients had died of AIDS-related causes, for a crude AIDS-related mortality rate of 6.7%. The product limit estimate (SE) of the cumulative mortality rate at 12 months was 2.9% (0.5%). In univariate analyses, a prior diagnosis of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), CD4 cell count, use of protease inhibitors, and HIV RNA level were associated with mortality. There was no difference in mortality by age or sex. Only CD4 cell count remained statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. After controlling for AIDS, protease inhibitor use, and plasma HIV RNA level at baseline, patients with CD4 cell counts of less than 50/microL were 6.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.61-12.34) times and those with counts of 50/microL to 199/microL were 3.41 (95% CI, 1.93-6.03) times more likely to die than those with counts of at least 200/microL. CONCLUSION: Our data demonstrate uniformly low rates of disease progression to death and AIDS or death among patients starting antiretroviral therapy with CD4 cell counts of at least 200/microL. In our study, disease progression to death and AIDS or death was clustered among patients starting therapy with CD4 cell counts less than 200/microL.

Risk factors associated with HIV infection among young gay and bisexual men in Canada.

OBJECTIVE: To assess risk factors associated with HIV prevalence and incidence among gay and bisexual men in two prospective Canadian cohorts. METHODS: The Vanguard Project and the Omega Cohort are prospective cohort studies of gay and bisexual men ongoing in Vancouver and Montreal, respectively. For this analysis, baseline sociodemographic characteristics, sexual behavior, and substance use data from these two cohorts were combined. Assessment of risk factors for HIV seroprevalence and seroconversion were carried out using univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: This analysis was based on 1373 gay and bisexual men aged 16 to 30 years. Men who were HIV-seropositive at baseline (n = 48) were more likely to report living in unstable housing, to have had less than a high school education, and to have been unemployed than those who were HIV-negative (n = 1325). HIV-positive men were also more likely to report having engaged in sexual risk behavior, including having had consensual sex at a younger age, having had at least 6 partners during the previous year, ever having been involved in the sex trade, and having engaged in unprotected receptive anal intercourse. With respect to substance use, HIV-positive men were more likely to report the use of crack, cocaine, heroin, and marijuana and to use injection drugs. Similarly, men who seroconverted during the course of the studies (n = 26) were more likely to report having less than a high school education and having lived in unstable housing at baseline. Compared with HIV-negative men, men who seroconverted were more likely to report ever having been involved in the sex trade and engaging in unprotected receptive anal intercourse. Reports of cocaine use and injection drug use were also significantly higher for men who seroconverted compared with HIV-negative men. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that HIV-positive gay and bisexual men are more likely to be living in unstable conditions and to report more risky sexual and substance use behaviors than HIV-negative men.

Longitudinal patterns of sexual behavior and condom use in a cohort of HIV-negative gay and bisexual men in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 1995-2000.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize longitudinal patterns of sexual behavior in a cohort of young gay and bisexual men and determine their reasons for not using condoms. METHODS: Prospective data from a cohort of young gay and bisexual men aged 18 to 30 years were studied. Study participants had completed a baseline questionnaire and HIV test between May 1995 and April 1996 and four annual follow-up questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 130 HIV-negative Vanguard participants met the eligibility criteria for this analysis. The median age at baseline was 26 years (range, 24-28). Most were white (79%), had completed high school (85%), were currently employed (82%), lived in stable housing (95%), and reported annual incomes of > or =$10,000 (82%). (All dollar amounts are given in Canadian dollars.) Consistently over the 5-year study period, > 70% of study subjects reported having > or =1 regular male sexual partners in the previous year. During each of the five successive 1-year periods, between 34% and 40% of respondents reported having had unprotected receptive anal intercourse with regular partners. Slightly fewer individuals (between 29%-39%) reported having had unprotected insertive anal intercourse with regular partners. Between 13% and 25% of participants reported having had insertive unprotected anal intercourse with casual sexual partners; and between 9% and 18% reported having had unprotected receptive anal intercourse with casual sexual partners. Reasons for engaging in unprotected anal intercourse varied depending on type of sexual partnership. CONCLUSION: High-risk sexual behaviors remained fairly consistent over a 5-year period in this study. This suggests that it is critically important to understand the motivations for unprotected sex when designing and implementing programs aimed at reducing HIV risk among young gay and bisexual men.

Increasing incidence of HIV infections among young gay and bisexual men in Vancouver.

Since the beginning of the HIV epidemic in north America, the majority of HIV infections have occurred among men who engage in sexual relations with other men. As the HIV epidemic enters its third decade, gay and bisexual men continue to have among the highest rates of HIV infection. Previous studies have highlighted the decline in the incidence of HIV and risk behaviour among gay and bisexual men. However, several studies have suggested that young gay and bisexual men continue to engage in unprotected sexual behaviours and are at continued risk of HIV infection. Recent reports in the media and research literature have indicated an increase in the incidence of HIV among gay and bisexual individuals in many of the world's major cities. The purpose of this study was to determine trends in HIV incidence using data from a prospective cohort of young gay and bisexual men.

Sex trade involvement and rates of human immunodeficiency virus positivity among young gay and bisexual men.

BACKGROUND: Susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is of particular concern for marginalized populations. The objective of this study was to determine risk factors associated with sex trade work among young gay and bisexual men. Further, we aimed to compare HIV prevalence and incidence among men involved and not involved in sex trade work. METHODS: The study is based upon data obtained from a prospective cohort study of young gay and bisexual men. Participants had completed a baseline questionnaire which elicited information on demographic information, sexual behaviours, and substance use. Sex trade involvement was defined as the exchange of money, drugs, goods, clothing, shelter or protection for sex within the one year prior to enrollment. Contingency table and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors associated with involvement in the sex trade. RESULTS: Of the 761 eligible participants, 126 (16%) reported involvement in sex trade work. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed regular alcohol use (Odds Ratio [OR] = 3.6, 95% CI : 1.8-7.2), aboriginal ethnicity (OR = 3.7, 95% CI : 1.6-8.7), unemployment (OR = 3.9, 95% CI : 2.1-7.3), history of residence in a psychiatric ward (OR = 4.2, 95% CI : 1.8-9.8), bisexual activity (OR = 7.0, 95% CI : 3.5-14.1) and the use of crack (OR = 7.4, 95% CI : 3.0-18.7) to be independently associated with sex trade work. Sex trade workers had a significantly higher HIV prevalence at baseline compared with non-sex trade workers (7.3% versus 1.1%, P < 0.001). As well, HIV incidence was found to be significantly higher for sex trade workers compared with non-sex trade workers (4.7% versus 0.9%, P = 0.011). CONCLUSION: Our study reveals that for male sex trade workers in this setting increased vulnerability to HIV infection is related to unfavourable living conditions, substance use and sexual risk behaviour.

Secular trends in the survival of HIV-infected homosexual men in Amsterdam and Vancouver estimated from a death-included CD4-staged Markov model.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate secular trends in waiting times in CD4-based stages of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression in two cohorts of homosexual men, one in Vancouver and one in Amsterdam. All HIV-positive men with two or more CD4 counts in their AIDS-free period between 1 January 1985 and 1 January 1997 were included in this study. Data regarding clinical AIDS diagnoses (using the 1987 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] AIDS case definition) and death were collected through active follow-up, review of hospital records, and municipal/national registries. The Vancouver Lymphadenopathy-AIDS Study (VLAS), was started in November 1982 and had enrollment until December 1984. Both HIV-negative and HIV-positive men were followed at intervals of 3-6 months until 1986 and annually thereafter. The Amsterdam cohort study on HIV and AIDS (ACS) started in December 1984, has ongoing enrollment and follow-up of both HIV-negative and HIV-positive homosexual men. The HIV-positive men were followed at intervals of 3 months. METHODS: The CD4-based stage of an individual at each visit was determined using smoothed data. For each cohort and in each calendar time period, a CD4-based Markov model with death as the absorbing stage was fitted to the data. The parameters in this model were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood and confidence intervals were calculated using bootstrap methods. RESULTS: A total of 509 homosexual men participating in the VLAS were included in this study, providing 5356 visits. Some 292 men developed AIDS before 1 January 1997 and 239 died before this date. In all, 232 of the 239 deaths were AIDS related. Thirty-seven per cent of all visits were related to treatment. A total of 543 homosexual men participating in the ACS were included in this study, providing 10 043 visits; 277 men developed AIDS before 1 January 1997 and 250 died before this date. The date of AIDS diagnosis was known for 225 of the 250 deaths. Twenty per cent of all visits were related to treatment. We found that in both cohort studies the stage-specific waiting times were longer in the low CD4-based stages (stages 4, 5 and 6: i.e. CD4 count <500 cells per mm(3)) after March 1990 compared to waiting times before March 1990. The increase in mean waiting time in these stages with low CD4 count was 21%, 33% and 53%, respectively in the ACS and 20%, 2% and 29% in the VLAS. Because waiting times alone are not exclusive for progression in a reversible model we also calculated the stage-specific median incubation periods till death. Men spent considerably longer in these CD4-based stages after March 1990 compared to before March 1990. CONCLUSIONS: Data from these population-based cohort studies showed that HIV disease progression in the calendar period where treatment was administered was slower for individuals in stages with low CD4 counts. We found no evidence for shortening of the incubation period that may have appeared from increasing virulence of the HIV in the population.

Comparison of sexual behaviors, unprotected sex, and substance use between two independent cohorts of gay and bisexual men.

OBJECTIVE: To compare demographic characteristics, sexual practices, unprotected receptive and insertive anal intercourse, substance use and rates of HIV-1 seroconversion between two prospective cohorts of HIV-negative men who have sex with men. DESIGN: Comparative analysis of two independent cohorts. METHODS: Between May 1995 and April 1996, 235 HIV-negative Vanguard Project (VP) participants were enrolled and between January and December 1985, 263 HIV-negative participants in the Vancouver Lymphadenopathy AIDS Study (VLAS) completed a follow-up visit. The VP participants were compared with VLAS participants with respect to self-reported demographic variables, sexual behaviors, unprotected sex, substance use and rates of HIV-1 seroconversion during follow-up. RESULTS: In comparison with the VLAS participants the VP participants were younger (median age, 26 versus 34 years; P< 0.001), more likely to be non-Caucasian (75 versus 97%; P< 0.001), and were less likely to have attended university/college (35 versus 46%; P = 0.014). The VP participants reported a higher mean number of male sex partners in the previous year (15 versus 12; P= 0.026) and a higher mean number of regular partners (1.7 versus 0.6; P < 0.001). The VP participants were more likely to report engaging in receptive (92 versus 60%; P< 0.001) and insertive (90 versus 69%; P < 0.001) anal intercourse with regular partners and receptive anal intercourse with casual partners (62 versus 38%; P< 0.001). The VLAS participants were more likely to report never using condoms during insertive and receptive anal intercourse with both regular and casual partners. The VP participants were less likely to report using nitrite inhalants (34 versus 43%; P= 0.033), but more likely to report the use of cocaine (30 versus 8%; P< 0.001), LSD (21 versus 3%; P < 0.001), amphetamine (11 versus 1%; P< 0.001), heroin (3 versus 0%; P= 0.010) and methyldiamphetamine (17 versus 10%; P= 0.034). The VLAS participants were nine times more likely to report high-risk sexual behavior, after controlling for differences in age, ethnicity, substance use, and method of recruitment between cohort members. After adjustment for differences in demographics, sexual behaviors, and level of substance use, the risk ratio for seroconversion among VLAS participants remained significantly elevated compared with VP participants. CONCLUSION: These data provide evidence that men who have sex with men who were enrolled in the VP were more sexually active than their VLAS counterparts were 10 years ago as measured by self-reported numbers of regular and casual partners and frequency of anal intercourse with these partners. However, condom use appears to be significantly higher among VP participants, which has contributed to a lower rate of HIV-1 infection.

The impact of zidovudine on dementia-free survival in a population of HIV-positive men and women on antiretroviral therapy.

Our objective was to characterize the effect of zidovudine therapy on AIDS dementia complex (dementia) free survival among HIV-infected men and women in a population-based cohort with free access to antiretroviral therapy in the province of British Columbia. Time to diagnosis of dementia among individuals was examined on the basis of zidovudine duration, CD4+ cell count at first treatment, gender, and transmission group [men having sex with men (MSM), intravenous drug users (IDU), heterosexuals]. We restricted the analysis to subjects with CD4+ cells counts within 12 months prior to treatment start date. Among 641 participants eligible for analysis, median duration of follow-up was 3.6 years, under which 86 (9.3%) events of dementia occurred. Participants were less likely to develop dementia with: increased zidovudine exposure (OR=0.26, 95% CI: 0.14-0.49), at least 260 CD4+ cells/mm3 (median) (OR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.34-0.78), and MSM risk group (OR=0.57, 95% CI: 0.35-0.94). Those infected through heterosexual contact had an increased risk (RR=2.04, 95% CI: 1.02-4.07). Using Cox's proportional hazards model, controlling for CD4+ cell count at treatment start date, independent predictors of dementia-free survival were: duration of zidovudine (OR=0.28, 95% CI: 0.15-0.52) and MSM transmission group (OR=0.61, 95% CI: 0.37-1.00). In this observational treatment cohort, factors associated with dementia-free survival include duration of zidovudine (AZT) therapy and MSM transmission group. It is not clear from these data whether the AZT protective effect is exclusive to this agent or whether other therapies might offer a similar protective effect.

HIV infection and risk behaviours among young gay and bisexual men in Vancouver.

BACKGROUND: Young gay and bisexual men may perceive that the consequences of HIV infection have dramatically improved with the availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy. We therefore sought to identify trends in HIV infection rates and associated risk behaviours among young gay and bisexual men in Vancouver. METHODS: Prospective cohort study involving gay and bisexual men aged 18-30 years who had not previously tested HIV positive. Subjects were recruited through physicians, clinics and community outreach in Vancouver. Annually participants were tested for HIV antibodies and asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire pertaining to sociodemographic characteristics, sexual behaviours and substance use. Prevalence of HIV infection and risk behaviours were determined for eligible participants who completed a baseline questionnaire and HIV testing as of May 1998. The primary outcome was the proportion of men who reported having protected sex during the year before enrollment and who reported any episode of unprotected sex by the time of the first follow-up visit. RESULTS: A total of 681 men completed a baseline questionnaire and HIV testing as of May 1998. The median duration between baseline and the first follow-up visit was 14 months. The median age was 25 years. Most of the subjects were white and of high socioeconomic status. The majority (549 [80.6%]) reported having sex only with men; 81 (11.9%) reported bisexual activity. Of the 503 men who had one or more regular male partners, 245 (48.7%) reported at least one episode of unprotected anal sex in the year before enrollment; the corresponding number among the 537 who had one or more casual male partners was 140 (26.1%). The prevalence and incidence of HIV seropositivity were 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8%-2.8%) and 1.7 per 100 person-years [95% CI 0.7-2.7], respectively. Fifty-two (26.5%) of the 196 and 55 (29.7%) of the 185 men with regular partners who reported having practiced protected insertive and receptive anal sex in the year before the baseline visit reported engaging in these activities without a condom at the follow-up visit; the corresponding numbers among the 232 and 242 men with causal partners who had practiced protected insertive and receptive anal sex before the baseline visit were 43 (15.5%) and 26 (9.4%) respectively at follow-up. INTERPRETATION: The incidence of HIV infection is unacceptably high among this cohort of young gay and bisexual men. Preliminary results suggest a disturbing trend toward increasing levels of unprotected anal intercourse.

The cost effectiveness of antiretroviral regimens for the treatment of HIV/AIDS.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate survival, the number of life-years gained and cost effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens, denoted as ERA-I [zidovudine + (didanosine or zalcitabine)]; ERA-II [stavudine + (didanosine or zalcitabine) or lamivudine + (zidovudine or didanosine or zalcitabine or stavudine)]; and ERA-III [2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors + (1 protease inhibitor or 1 non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor)]. DESIGN: Modelling of drug cost, cost of opportunistic diseases and survival of HIV positive men and women in the province of British Columbia who were first prescribed any ART between October 1992 and June 1996. A 'reference cohort' was modelled upon individuals in a longitudinal cohort of homosexual men followed since 1982. PERSPECTIVE AND SETTING: Third-party payer perspective in British Columbia, Canada. PATIENTS: All HIV-positive men and women aged > or =18 years with CD4+ counts < or =350 cells/microL who were enrolled in the province-wide drug treatment programme. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual costs, survival and cost-effectiveness ratios of successive ART regimens. RESULTS: Total costs [1997 Canadian dollars ($Can)] at 12 months under ERA-I, -II and -III were $Can4897, $Can6620 and $Can 11 914, respectively. Survival at 12 months under ERA-I, -II and -III was 89.6%, 91.0% and 97.6%, respectively. The annual incremental cost (estimated by the total incremental cost at 12 months) between ERA-II and ERA-I was $Can1723. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between ERA-III and ERA-I, and between ERA-III and ERA-II were $Can58 806 and $Can46 971 per life-year gained, respectively. CONCLUSION: We found the cost effectiveness of ERA-III ART regimens well within the range of currently funded therapies for the treatment of other chronic diseases.

Improved survival among HIV-infected patients after initiation of triple-drug antiretroviral regimens.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of triple-drug antiretroviral regimens in the treatment of patients infected with HIV has been established in several randomized clinical trials. However, the effectiveness of these new regimens in patient populations outside clinical trials remain unproven. This study compared mortality and AIDS-free survival among HIV-infected patients in British Columbia who were treated with double- and triple-drug regimens. METHODS: The authors used a prospective, population-based cohort design to study a population of HIV-positive men and women 18 years or older for whom antiretroviral therapy was first prescribed between Oct. 1, 1994, and Dec. 31, 1996; all patients were from British Columbia. Rates of progression from the initiation of antiretroviral therapy to death or to diagnosis of primary AIDS were determined for patients who initially received an ERA-II regimen (2 nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors [NRTIs] including lamivudine or stavudine, or both) and for those who initially received an ERA-III regimen (triple-drug regimen consisting of 2 NRTIs and a protease inhibitor [indinavir, ritonavir or saquinavir] or a non-NRTI [nevirapine]). RESULTS: A total of 500 men and women (312 receiving an ERA-III regimen and 188 an ERA-III regimen) were eligible. Patients in the ERA-III group survived significantly longer than those in the ERA-II group. As of Dec. 31, 1997, 40 patients had died (35 in the ERA-II group and 5 in the ERA-III group), for a crude mortality rate of 8.0%. The cumulative mortality rates at 12 months were 7.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.9% to 8.9%) for patients in the ERA-II group and 1.6% (95% CI 0.7% to 2.5%) for those in the ERA-III group (log rank p = 0.003). The likelihood of death was more than 3 times higher among patients in the ERA-II group (mortality risk ratio 3.82 [95% CI 1.48% to 9.84], p = 0.006). After adjustment for prophylaxis for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia or Mycobacterium avium infection, AIDS diagnosis, CD4+ cell count, sex and age at initiation of therapy, the likelihood of death among patients in the ERA-II group was 3.21 times higher (95% CI 1.24 to 8.30, p = 0.016) than in the ERA-III group. Cumulative rates of progression to AIDS or death at 12 months were 9.6% (95% CI 7.7% to 11.5%) in the ERA-II group and 3.3% (95% CI 1.8% to 4.8%) in the ERA-III group (log rank p = 0.006). After adjustment for prognostic variables (prophylaxis for P. carinii pneumonia or M. avium infection, CD4+ cell count, sex and age at initiation of treatment), the likelihood of progression to AIDS or death at 12 months among patients in the ERA-II group was 2.37 times higher (95% CI 1.04 to 5.38, p = 0.040) than in the ERA-III group. INTERPRETATION: This population-based cohort study confirms that patients initially treated with a triple-drug antiretroviral regimen comprising 2 NRTIs plus protease inhibitor or a non-NRTI have a lower risk of morbidity and death than patients treated exclusively with 2 NRTIs.

Determinants of short- and long-term outcome in patients with respiratory failure caused by AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To determine (1) predictors of in-hospital mortality and long-term survival in patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) caused by acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) and (2) long-term survival for patients with ARF relative to those without ARF. METHODS: A retrospective medical chart review was conducted of all cases of PCP-related ARF for which the patient was admitted to the intensive care unit of a single tertiary care institution between 1991 and 1996. Data were extracted regarding physiologic scores, relevant laboratory values, and duration of previous maximal therapy with combined anti-PCP agents and corticosteroids at entry to the intensive care unit. Duration of survival was determined by Kaplan-Meier methods from date of first hospital admission and compared for patients with and without ARF. RESULTS: There were 41 admissions to the intensive care unit among 39 patients, with 56.4% in-hospital mortality. Higher physiologic scores (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II], Acute Lung Injury, and modified Multisystem Organ Failure scores) were predictive of in-hospital mortality. Duration of previous maximal therapy also predicted in-hospital mortality (45% for patients with <5 days of previous maximal therapy vs 88% for those with > or =5 days of previous maximal therapy; P = .03). Combining physiologic scores and duration of previous maximal therapy enhanced prediction of in-hospital mortality. There was no difference in long-term survival between patients with PCP with ARF and those without ARF (P = .80), and baseline characteristics did not predict long-term survival. CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital mortality of patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related PCP and ARF is predicted by duration of previous maximal therapy and physiologic scores, and their combination enhances predictive accuracy. Long-term survival of patients with ARF caused by PCP is comparable to that of patients with PCP who do not develop ARF, and determinants of in-hospital mortality do not predict long-term survival.

One world, one hope: the cost of providing antiretroviral therapy to all nations.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential direct cost of making triple combination antiretroviral therapy widely available to HIV-positive adults and children living in countries throughout the world. METHODS: For each country, antiretroviral costs were obtained by multiplying the annual cost of triple antiretroviral therapy by the estimated number of HIV-positive persons accessing therapy. Per capita antiretroviral costs were computed by dividing the antiretroviral costs by the country's total population. The potential economic burden was calculated by dividing per capita antiretroviral costs by the gross national product (GNP) per capita. All values are expressed in 1997 US dollars. RESULTS: The potential cost of making triple combination antiretroviral therapy available to HIV-positive individuals throughout the world was estimated to be over US$ 65.8 billion. By far the greatest financial burden was on sub-Saharan Africa. The highest per capita drug cost in this region would be incurred in the subregions of Southern Africa (US$ 149) followed by East Africa (US$ 116), Middle Africa (US$ 44), and West Africa (US$ 42). In the Americas, subregional data indicated the highest per capita drug cost would be in the Latin Caribbean (US$ 22), followed by the Caribbean (US$ 17), Andean Area (US$ 7), the Southern Cone (US$ 6), North America (US$ 6), and Central American Isthmus (US$ 5). In Asia and Europe the percentage of the GNP necessary to finance drug therapy was less than 1% in most countries examined. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that the cost of making combination antiretroviral therapy available worldwide would be exceedingly high, especially in countries with limited financial resources.

PIP: In 1997, an estimated 5.8 million people worldwide were infected with HIV, of whom 90% lived in developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. While antiretroviral therapy has been shown to prolong survival in people with HIV/AIDS, many of the countries with the highest rates of HIV infection have little or no access to antiretroviral therapy, for a number of reasons, including cost. Findings are presented from a study conducted to estimate the potential direct cost of making triple combination antiretroviral therapy widely available to all of the world's HIV-infected population. The potential cost of making such therapy available to HIV-positive people worldwide was estimated to be over US$65.8 billion, in 1997 US dollars, with the greatest expenditures needed in sub-Saharan Africa. The highest per capita drug cost in sub-Saharan Africa would be incurred in Southern Africa (US$149), followed by East Africa (US$116), Middle Africa (US$44), and West Africa (US$42). In the Americas, per capita drug costs would be US$22 in the Latin Caribbean, US$17 in the Caribbean, US$7 in the Andean Area, US$6 in the Southern Cone and North America, and US$5 in the Central American Isthmus. In Europe and Asia, the percentage of GNP needed to finance drug therapy was less than 1% in most countries examined. For each country, antiviral costs were determined by multiplying the annual cost of triple antiretroviral therapy by the estimated number of HIV-positive people accessing therapy. Per capita therapy costs were calculated by dividing the antiretroviral costs by the country's total population. The potential economic burden was calculated by dividing per capita antiretroviral costs by the gross national product (GNP) per capita.

Determinants of sexual risk-taking among young HIV-negative gay and bisexual men.

Data from a cohort of young HIV-negative gay and bisexual men were analyzed to identify determinants of sexual risk-taking at baseline. Gay/bisexual men aged between 18 and 30 completed a self-administered questionnaire including demographics, depression, social support, substance use, and consensual versus nonconsensual sex. Risk-takers were defined as those who had unprotected anal sex with casual male sex partners in the previous year; non-risk-takers were defined as those who reported consistent condom use during anal sex with all male partners in the previous year. Logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of sexual risk-taking. Of 439 men studied, risk-takers had less education, a higher depression score, less social support, and were more likely to report nonconsensual sex and recreational drug use relative to non-risk-takers. Independent predictors of sexual risk-taking were low education, nitrite use, low social support (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.65; 95% CI, 1.04-2.59), and nonconsensual sex experienced as a youth or adult (AOR=1.85; 95% CI, 1.15-2.96). Young gay/bisexual men reporting nonconsensual sex, low social support, or nitrite use were significantly more likely to have recently had unprotected anal sex with casual partners. HIV prevention programs aimed at young gay/bisexual men should include sexual abuse counselling and foster community norms supporting safer sex practices.

Models of survival in HIV infection and their use in the quantification of treatment benefits.

Because acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a shifting endpoint and sufficient follow-up data now allow modeling of survival time (i.e., time from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion to death), the authors evaluated non-parametric and parametric models of mortality with the use of data from 554 seropositive participants in the Vancouver Lymphadenopathy-AIDS Study. The authors then applied these models to quantify treatment benefits at the national level in Canada, using back-calculation and forward-projection based on death registries. The study revealed that the lognormal model better describes survival time than the Weibull model. Relative to observations prior to 1987, later observations (in the era of treatment) revealed a statistically significant change in disease progression: the median survival time increased from 10.1 to 12.0 years, but no further survival improvements were observed in the early 1990s. Concurrent with the increase in availability of treatment, the authors have observed pronounced treatment benefits at the national level: prior to 1995, approximately 1,500 deaths were prevented and 4,200 person-years of life were saved. Also, mortality rates were observed to level off in the mid-1990s due to the shape of the historical HIV infection curve and the accumulating availability of treatment in Canada.