Lessons from integrated seasonal forecast-crop modelling in Africa: A systematic review.

Seasonal forecasts coupled with crop models can potentially enhance decision-making in smallholder farming in Africa. The study sought to inform future research through identifying and critiquing crop and climate models, and techniques for integrating seasonal forecast information and crop models. Peer-reviewed articles related to crop modelling and seasonal forecasting were sourced from Google Scholar, Web of Science, AGRIS, and JSTOR. Nineteen articles were selected from a search outcome of 530. About 74% of the studies used mechanistic models, which are favored for climate risk management research as they account for crop management practices. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hamburg, are the predominant global climate models (GCMs) used across Africa. A range of approaches have been assessed to improve the effectiveness of the connection between seasonal forecast information and mechanistic crop models, which include GCMs, analogue, stochastic disaggregation, and statistical prediction through converting seasonal weather summaries into the daily weather. GCM outputs are produced in a format compatible with mechanistic crop models. Such outputs are critical for researchers to have information on the merits and demerits of tools and approaches on integrating seasonal forecast and crop models. There is however need to widen such research to other regions in Africa, crop, farming systems, and policy.

Regulation and physiological function of proteins for heat tolerance in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) genotypes under controlled and field conditions.

The expression of heat shock proteins is considered a central adaptive mechanism to heat stress. This study investigated the expression of heat shock proteins (HSPs) and other stress-protective proteins against heat stress in cowpea genotypes under field (IT-96D-610 and IT-16) and controlled (IT-96D-610) conditions. Heat stress response analysis of proteins at 72 h in the controlled environment showed 270 differentially regulated proteins identified using label-free quantitative proteomics in IT-96D-610 plants. These plants expressed HSPs and chaperones [BAG family molecular chaperone 6 (BAG6), Multiprotein bridging factor1c (MBF1C) and cold shock domain protein 1 (CSDP1) in the controlled environment]. However, IT-96D-610 plants expressed a wider variety of small HSPs and more HSPs in the field. IT-96D-610 plants also responded to heat stress by exclusively expressing chaperones [DnaJ chaperones, universal stress protein and heat shock binding protein (HSBP)] and non-HSP proteins (Deg1, EGY3, ROS protective proteins, temperature-induced lipocalin and succinic dehydrogenase). Photosynthesis recovery and induction of proteins related to photosynthesis were better in IT-96D-610 because of the concurrent induction of heat stress response proteins for chaperone functions, protein degradation for repair and ROS scavenging proteins and PSII operating efficiency (Fq'/Fm') than IT-16. This study contributes to identification of thermotolerance mechanisms in cowpea that can be useful in knowledge-based crop improvement.

Proteome changes and associated physiological roles in chickpea (Cicer arietinum) tolerance to heat stress under field conditions.

Interrogative proteome analyses are used to identify and quantify the expression of proteins involved in heat tolerance and to identify associated physiological processes in heat-stressed plants. The objectives of the study were to identify and quantify the expression of proteins involved in heat tolerance and to identify associated physiological processes in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) heat-tolerant (Acc#7) and sensitive genotype (Acc#8) from a field study. Proteomic and gene ontological analyses showed an upregulation in proteins related to protein synthesis, intracellular traffic, defence and transport in the heat-tolerant genotype compared to the susceptible one at the warmer site. Results from KEGG analyses indicate the involvement of probable sucrose-phosphate synthase (EC 2.4.1.14) and sucrose-phosphate phosphatase (EC 3.1.3.24) proteins, that were upregulated in the heat-tolerant genotype at the warmer site, in the starch and sucrose pathway. The presence of these differentially regulated proteins including HSP70, ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase activase, plastocyanin and protoporphyrinogen oxidase suggests their potential role in heat tolerance, at flowering growth stage, in field-grown chickpea. This observation supports unaltered physiological and biochemical performance of the heat-tolerant genotypes (Acc#7) relative to the susceptible genotype (Acc#8) in related studies (Makonya et al. 2019). Characterisation of the candidate proteins identified in the current study as well as their specific roles in the tolerance to heat stress in chickpea are integral to further crop improvement initiatives.

Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa.

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971-2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre's regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971-2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5-3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.

On the role of anthropogenic climate change in the emerging food crisis in southern Africa in the 2019-2020 growing season.

Anthropogenic climate change likely influences the beginning of 2020 growing season's water deficit in parts of southern Africa, with severe consequences to food security.

Chlorophyll fluorescence and carbohydrate concentration as field selection traits for heat tolerant chickpea genotypes.

Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), a cool season crop is severely affected by heat stress, predicted to increase due to warming climates. Research for identifying heat tolerance markers for potential chickpea genotype selection is imperative. The study assessed the response of four chickpea genotypes to a natural temperature gradient in the field using chlorophyll fluorescence, non-structural carbohydrate, chlorophyll concentrations, gas exchange and grain yield. Field experiments were carried out in two winter seasons at three locations with known differences in temperature in NE South Africa. Results showed two genotypes were tolerant to heat stress with an Fv/Fm of 0.83-0.85 at the warmer site, while the two sensitive genotypes showed lower Fv/Fm of 0.78-0.80. Both dark-adapted Fv/Fm and Fq'/Fm' (where Fq' = Fm' -F) measured at comparable high light levels correlated positively with grain yield. The two tolerant genotypes also showed higher photosynthetic rates, starch, sucrose and grain yield than the sensitive genotypes at the warmer site. However, these parameters were consistently higher at the cooler sites than at the warmer. These results were further validated by a climate chamber experiment, where higher Fv/Fm decline in the sensitive compared to tolerant genotypes was observed when they were exposed to short-term heat treatments of 30/25 °C and 35/30 °C. Tolerant genotypes had higher Fv/Fm (0.78-0.81) and grain yield plant-1(1.12-2.37g) compared to sensitive genotypes (0.74-0.75) and (0.32-0.89g plant-1) respectively in the 35/30 °C. It is concluded that chlorophyll fluorescence and leaf carbohydrates are suitable tools for selection of heat tolerant chickpea genotypes under field conditions, while the coolest site showed favourable conditions for chickpea production.