Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2021) in 12 Countries of the C-MOR Consortium.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated cause-specific mortality rates in 12 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: We collected weekly cause-specific mortality data from respiratory disease, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer from national vital statistic databases. We calculated excess mortality for respiratory disease (excluding COVID-19 codes), pneumonia, and CVD in 2020 and 2021 by comparing observed weekly against expected mortality based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonal trends. We used multilevel regression models to investigate the association between country-level pandemic-related variables and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: Significant reductions in cumulative mortality from respiratory disease and pneumonia were observed in 2020 and/or 2021, except for Georgia, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which exhibited excess mortality for one or both causes. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Georgia, and Northern Ireland experienced excess cumulative CVD mortality in 2020 and/or 2021. Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Georgia, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Slovenia, experienced increased crude cumulative cancer mortality during 2020 and/or 2021 compared to previous years. Among pandemic-related variables, reported COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with increased cancer mortality, excess respiratory, (2020) and pneumonia (2021) mortality, and positively associated with respiratory and CVD mortality (2021). Stringency of control measures were negatively associated with excess respiratory disease, CVD, and increased cancer mortality (2021). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality from CVD, and notable reductions in respiratory disease and pneumonia in both years across most countries investigated. Our study also highlights the beneficial impact of stringent control measures in mitigating excess mortality from most causes in 2021.

Indicators of optimal diabetes care and burden of diabetes complications in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Contemporary data on the attainment of optimal diabetes treatment goals and the burden of diabetes complications in adult populations with type 2 diabetes in Africa are lacking. We aimed to document the current status of attainment of three key indicators of optimal diabetes care and the prevalence of five diabetes complications in adult African populations with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We systematically searched Embase, PubMed and the Cochrane library for published studies from January 2000 to December 2020. Included studies reported any information on the proportion of attainment of optimal glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure (BP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC) goals and/or prevalence of five diabetes complications (diabetic peripheral neuropathy, retinopathy, nephropathy, foot ulcers and peripheral arterial disease). Random effect model meta-analysis was performed to determine the pooled proportion of attainment of the three treatment goals and the prevalence of five diabetes complications. RESULTS: In total, 109 studies with a total of 63 890 participants (53.3% being females) were included in the meta-analysis. Most of the studies were conducted in Eastern African countries (n=44, 40.4%). The pooled proportion of attainment of an optimal HbA1c, BP and LDLC goal was 27% (95% CI 24 to 30, I2=94.7%), 38% (95% CI 30 to 46, I2=98.7%) and 42% (95% CI 32 to 52, I2=97.4%), respectively. The pooled prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy, retinopathy, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral arterial disease and foot ulcers was 38% (95% CI 31 to 45, I2=98.2%), 32% (95% CI 28 to 36, I2=98%), 31% (95% CI 22 to 41, I2=99.3%), 19% (95% CI 12 to 25, I2=98.1%) and 11% (95% CI 9 to 14, I2=97.4%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Attainment of optimal diabetes treatment goals, especially HbA1c, in adult patients with type 2 diabetes in Africa remains a challenge. Diabetes complications, especially diabetic peripheral neuropathy and retinopathy, are highly prevalent in adult populations with type 2 diabetes in Africa.

Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050. METHODS: Our deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050. CONCLUSION: T2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens.

Accuracy of the WHO Haemoglobin Colour Scale for the diagnosis of anaemia in primary health care settings in low-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. Primary health-care workers in resource-poor settings usually diagnose anaemia clinically, but this is inaccurate. The WHO Haemoglobin Colour Scale (HCS) is a simple, cheap quantitative method to assess haemoglobin concentration outside of the laboratory. We systematically reviewed the literature to assess the accuracy of the HCS in primary care to diagnose anaemia, and compared this with clinical assessment. METHODS: We searched the electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Web of Science, Cochrane library, CINAHL plus, Popline, Reproductive Health Library, and Google Scholar and regional databases up to Nov 14, 2014, "haemoglobin colour scale" in alternative spellings published in any language. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed quality using the QUADAS-2 instrument. Statistical analyses were carried out in STATA using the bivariate model. FINDINGS: Of 141 records and abstracts screened, 14 studies were included. The pooled sensitivity of the HCS to diagnose anaemia was 80% (95% CI 68-88) compared with 52% for clinical assessment ([95% CI 36-67]; p=0·008). Specificity was similar between the HCS (80% [95% CI 59-91]) and clinical assessment (75% [56-88]; p=0·8250). For severe anaemia, diagnostic accuracy was again higher overall for the HCS (p<0·0001); sensitivity was 57% (36-76) for the HCS and 45% (95% CI 12-83) for clinical assessment, but specificity was 99·6% (95% CI 95-99·9) versus 92% (62-99). Combining clinical assessment and the HCS could result in higher sensitivity (anaemia: 91% [95% CI 81-96]); severe anaemia 83% (33-98), but at the expense of specificity (anaemia: 59% [35-79]; severe anaemia 90% [40-99]). Individual studies were highly heterogeneous but pooled results did not differ substantially in a series of sensitivity analyses for indicators of study robustness. INTERPRETATION: In so-called real-life primary health-care conditions, HCS can significantly reduce misdiagnosis of anaemia compared with clinical assessment alone. Future research is required to optimise training, and assess clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. FUNDING: None.

Trends in smoking and quitting in China from 1993 to 2003: National Health Service Survey data.

OBJECTIVE: China has about 350 million smokers, more commonly men. Using data from National Health Service Surveys conducted in 1993, 1998 and 2003, we (i) estimated trends in smoking prevalence and cessation according to sociodemographic variables and (ii) analysed cessation rates, quitting intentions, reasons for quitting and reasons for relapsing. METHODS: Data were collected from approximately 57 000 households and 200 000 individuals in each survey year. Household members > 15 years of age were interviewed about their smoking habits, quitting intentions and attitudes towards smoking. We present descriptive data stratified by age, sex, income level and rural versus urban residence. FINDINGS: In China, current smoking in those > 15 years old declined 60-49% in men and 5-3.2% in women over 1993-2003. The decline was more marked in urban areas. However, heavy smoking (≥ 20 cigarettes daily) increased substantially overall and doubled in men. The average age of uptake also dropped by about 3 years. In 2003, 7.9% of smokers reported intending to quit, and 6% of people who had ever smoked reported having quit. Of former smokers, 40.6% quit because of illness, 26.9% to prevent disease and 10.9% for financial reasons. CONCLUSION: Smoking prevalence declined in China over the study period, perhaps due to the combined effect of smoking cessation, reduced uptake in women and selective mortality among men over 40 years of age. However, heavy smoking increased. People in China rarely quit or intend to quit smoking, except at older ages. Further tobacco control efforts are urgently needed, especially in rural areas.

The impact of demographic and risk factor changes on coronary heart disease deaths in Beijing, 1999-2010.

BACKGROUND: Recent, dramatic increases in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in China can be mostly explained by adverse changes in major cardiovascular risk factors. Our study aimed to assess the potential impact of subsequent changes in risk factors and population ageing on CHD deaths in Beijing between 1999 and 2010. METHODS: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to estimate the CHD deaths expected in 2010, with treatment uptakes being held constant at levels measured in 1999, comparing three scenarios: a) taking into account the ageing of the population but assuming no further changes in major risk factor levels from 1999 or, b) if recent risk factor trends continued until 2010 or, c) if there was a 0.5% annual reduction in each risk factor. RESULTS: Population ageing alone would result in approximately 1990 additional deaths in 2010 compared with 1999, representing an increase of 27%. Continuation of current risk factor trends would result in approximately 3,015 extra deaths in 2010, [a 40% increase]; three quarters of this increase would be attributable to rises in total cholesterol levels. Thus, demographic changes and worsening risk factors would together result in a 67% increase in CHD deaths. Conversely, assumed 0.5% annual reductions in risk factors (a mean population level decline of 0.3 mmol/L for total cholesterol in both genders, and smoking prevalence declining by 3.0% for men and 4.1% for women, body mass index by 1.3 kg/m2 for men and 1.4 kg/m2 for women, diabetes prevalence by 0.4% in both genders, and diastolic blood pressure by 4.7 mmHg for men and 4.4 mmHg for women) would result in some 3,730 fewer deaths, representing a 23% decrease overall. These findings remained consistent in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: CHD death rates are continuing to rise in Beijing. This reflects worsening risk factor levels, compounded by demographic trends. However, the adverse impact of population ageing on CHD burden could be completely offset by eminently feasible improvements in diet and smoking.

Coronary heart disease policy models: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD) is complex. A variety of models have therefore been developed to try and explain past trends and predict future possibilities. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the strengths and limitations of existing CHD policy models. METHODS: A search strategy was developed, piloted and run in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases, supplemented by manually searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. Two reviewers independently checked the papers for inclusion and appraisal. All CHD modelling studies were included which addressed a defined population and reported on one or more key outcomes (deaths prevented, life years gained, mortality, incidence, prevalence, disability or cost of treatment). RESULTS: In total, 75 articles describing 42 models were included; 12 (29%) of the 42 models were micro-simulation, 8 (19%) cell-based, and 8 (19%) life table analyses, while 14 (33%) used other modelling methods. Outcomes most commonly reported were cost-effectiveness (36%), numbers of deaths prevented (33%), life-years gained (23%) or CHD incidence (23%). Among the 42 models, 29 (69%) included one or more risk factors for primary prevention, while 8 (19%) just considered CHD treatments. Only 5 (12%) were comprehensive, considering both risk factors and treatments. The six best-developed models are summarised in this paper, all are considered in detail in the appendices. CONCLUSION: Existing CHD policy models vary widely in their depth, breadth, quality, utility and versatility. Few models have been calibrated against observed data, replicated in different settings or adequately validated. Before being accepted as a policy aid, any CHD model should provide an explicit statement of its aims, assumptions, outputs, strengths and limitations.

Modelling the decline in coronary heart disease deaths in England and Wales, 1981-2000: comparing contributions from primary prevention and secondary prevention.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether population based primary prevention (risk factor reduction in apparently healthy people) might be more powerful than current government initiatives favouring risk factor reduction in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) (secondary prevention). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The IMPACT model was used to synthesise data for England and Wales describing CHD patient numbers, uptake of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors, and the mortality benefits of these specific risk factor changes in healthy people and in CHD patients. RESULTS: Between 1981 and 2000, CHD mortality rates fell by 54%, resulting in 68,230 fewer deaths in 2000. Overall smoking prevalence declined by 35% between 1981 and 2000, resulting in approximately 29,715 (minimum estimate 20 035, maximum estimate 44,675) fewer deaths attributable to smoking cessation: approximately 5035 in known CHD patients and approximately 24,680 in healthy people. Population total cholesterol concentrations fell by 4.2%, resulting in approximately 5770 fewer deaths attributable to dietary changes (1205 in CHD patients and 4565 in healthy people) plus 2135 fewer deaths attributable to statin treatment (1990 in CHD patients, 145 in people without CHD). Mean population blood pressure fell by 7.7%, resulting in approximately 5870 fewer deaths attributable to secular falls in blood pressure (520 in CHD patients and 5345 in healthy people) plus approximately 1890 fewer deaths attributable to antihypertensive treatments in people without CHD. Approximately 45,370 fewer deaths were thus attributable to reductions in the three major risk factors in the population: some 36 625 (81%) in people without recognised CHD and 8745 (19%) in CHD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with secondary prevention, primary prevention achieved a fourfold larger reduction in deaths. Future CHD policies should prioritise population-wide tobacco control and healthier diets.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease mortality rates have been decreasing in the United Kingdom since the 1970s. Our study aimed to examine how much of the decrease in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000 could be attributed to medical and surgical treatments and how much to changes in cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: The IMPACT mortality model was used to combine and analyze data on uptake and effectiveness of cardiological treatments and risk factor trends in England and Wales. The main data sources were published trials and meta-analyses, official statistics, clinical audits, and national surveys. Between 1981 and 2000, coronary heart disease mortality rates in England and Wales decreased by 62% in men and 45% in women 25 to 84 years old. This resulted in 68 230 fewer deaths in 2000. Some 42% of this decrease was attributed to treatments in individuals (including 11% to secondary prevention, 13% to heart failure treatments, 8% to initial treatments of acute myocardial infarction, and 3% to hypertension treatments) and 58% to population risk factor reductions (principally smoking, 48%; blood pressure, 9.5%; and cholesterol, 9.5%). Adverse trends were seen for physical activity, obesity and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: More than half the coronary heart disease mortality decrease in Britain between 1981 and 2000 was attributable to reductions in major risk factors, principally smoking. This emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive strategy that promotes primary prevention, particularly for tobacco and diet, and that maximizes population coverage of effective treatments, especially for secondary prevention and heart failure. These findings may be cautiously generalizable to the United States and other developed countries.