Conservation planning integrating natural disturbances: Estimating minimum reserve sizes for an insect disturbance in the boreal forest of eastern Canada.

Large natural disturbances such as insect outbreaks and fire are important processes for biodiversity in forest landscapes. However, few methods exist for incorporating natural disturbances into conservation planning. Intact forest landscapes, such as in the North American boreal forest, can produce large natural disturbance footprints. They also have the potential to support large reserves but size estimates based on natural disturbance are needed to guide reserve design. Historical fire data have been used to estimate minimum dynamic reserves, reserve size estimates based on maintaining natural disturbance dynamics and ensuring resilience to large natural disturbance events. While this has been a significant step towards incorporating natural disturbance into reserve design, managers currently lack guidance on how to apply these concepts in areas where fire is not the dominant natural disturbance. We generalize the minimum dynamic reserve framework to accommodate insect outbreaks and demonstrate the framework in a case study for eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) in the Canadian boreal forest. Our methods use geospatial analysis to identify minimum dynamic reserves based on a set of spatially explicit initial conditions, and simulation models to test for the maintenance of a set of dynamic conditions over time. We found considerable variability in minimum dynamic reserve size depending on the size of historic budworm disturbance events and the spatial patterns of disturbance-prone vegetation types. The minimum dynamic reserve framework provides an approach for incorporating wide-ranging natural disturbances into biodiversity conservation plans for both pro-active planning in intact landscapes, and reactive planning in more developed regions.

Correction: Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179294.].

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.

Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.

Accounting for system dynamics in reserve design.

Systematic conservation plans have only recently considered the dynamic nature of ecosystems. Methods have been developed to incorporate climate change, population dynamics, and uncertainty in reserve design, but few studies have examined how to account for natural disturbance. Considering natural disturbance in reserve design may be especially important for the world's remaining intact areas, which still experience active natural disturbance regimes. We developed a spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model, CONSERV, which simulates patch dynamics and fire, and used it to evaluate the efficacy of hypothetical reserve networks in northern Canada. We designed six networks based on conventional reserve design methods, with different conservation targets for woodland caribou habitat, high-quality wetlands, vegetation, water bodies, and relative connectedness. We input the six reserve networks into CONSERV and tracked the ability of each to maintain initial conservation targets through time under an active natural disturbance regime. None of the reserve networks maintained all initial targets, and some over-represented certain features, suggesting that both effectiveness and efficiency of reserve design could be improved through use of spatially explicit dynamic simulation during the planning process. Spatial simulation models of landscape dynamics are commonly used in natural resource management, but we provide the first illustration of their potential use for reserve design. Spatial simulation models could be used iteratively to evaluate competing reserve designs and select targets that have a higher likelihood of being maintained through time. Such models could be combined with dynamic planning techniques to develop a general theory for reserve design in an uncertain world.