Partisan polarization, historical heritage, and public health: Exploring COVID-19 outcomes.

When the COVID-19 virus first arrived in the United States in early 2020, many epidemiologists and public health officers counseled for shutdowns and advised policymakers to prepare for a major pandemic. In 2020, though, US society was rife with major political and cultural divides. Some elected leaders promoted policies at odds with the experts, and many people refused to heed the public health-based communications about the coming pandemic. Additionally, the capacity to respond to a pandemic was distributed in the country in a highly unequal fashion. This paper analyzes the noteworthy geopolitical patterns of COVID-19 illnesses, subsequent demands on hospitals, and resulting deaths. This description is based on a snapshot of archival data gathered in the midst of the pandemic during late January and early February of 2021. Demographic data, indicators of political party support, indicators of citizen attitudes, and public health compliance behaviors are combined in a multivariate analysis to explain COVID-19 outcomes at the local government (county) level. The analysis suggests strongly that regional political culture and local demographics played a substantial role in determining the severity of the public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cuando el virus COVID­19 llegó por primera vez a los Estados Unidos a principios de 2020, muchos epidemiólogos y funcionarios de salud pública recomendaron cierres y aconsejaron a los legisladores que se prepararan para una gran pandemia. Sin embargo, en 2020, la sociedad estadounidense estaba plagada de grandes divisiones políticas y culturales. Algunos líderes electos promovieron políticas en desacuerdo con los expertos, y muchas personas se negaron a prestar atención a las comunicaciones basadas en la salud pública sobre la próxima pandemia. Además, la capacidad de respuesta ante una pandemia se distribuyó en el país de manera muy desigual. Este documento analiza los patrones geopolíticos notables de las enfermedades de COVID­19, las demandas posteriores en los hospitales y las muertes resultantes. Esta descripción se basa en una instantánea de los datos de archivo recopilados en medio de la pandemia a fines de enero y principios de febrero de 2021. Los datos demográficos, los indicadores de apoyo a los partidos políticos, los indicadores de las actitudes de los ciudadanos y los comportamientos de cumplimiento de la salud pública se combinan en un modelo multivariado. análisis para explicar los resultados de COVID­19 a nivel del gobierno local (condado). El análisis sugiere fuertemente que la cultura política regional y la demografía local desempeñaron un papel importante en la determinación de la gravedad del impacto de la pandemia de COVID­19 en la salud pública.

Aggregated Tau Measured by Visual Interpretation of Flortaucipir Positron Emission Tomography and the Associated Risk of Clinical Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Disease: Results From 2 Phase III Clinical Trials.

Importance: Flortaucipir positron emission tomography (PET) scans, rated with a novel, US Food and Drug Administration-approved, clinically applicable visual interpretation method, provide valuable information regarding near-term clinical progression of patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Objective: To evaluate the association between flortaucipir PET visual interpretation and patients' near-term clinical progression. Design/Setting/Participants: Two prospective, open-label, longitudinal studies were conducted from December 2014 to September 2019. Study 1 screened 298 patients and enrolled 160 participants who had a flortaucipir scan at baseline visit. Study 2 selected 205 participants from the AMARANTH trial, which was terminated after futility analysis. Out of the 2218 AMARANTH participants, 424 had a flortaucipir scan around randomization, but 219 did not complete 18-month clinical dementia rating (CDR) assessments and thus were excluded. In both studies, all participants were diagnosed as clinically impaired, and they were longitudinally followed up for approximately 18 months after baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: Flortaucipir scans were rated as either advanced or nonadvanced AD pattern using a predetermined visual interpretation method. The CDR sum of box (CDR-SB) score was used as primary clinical end point measurement in both studies. Results: Of the 364 study participants who had readable scans, 48% were female (n = 174 of 364), and the mean (SD) age was 71.8 (8.7) years. Two hundred forty participants were rated as having an advanced AD pattern. At 18 months follow-up, 70% of those with an advanced AD pattern (n = 147 of 210) had 1 point or more increase in CDR-SB, an event predefined as clinically meaningful deterioration. In contrast, only 46% of those with a nonadvanced AD pattern scan (n = 48 of 105) experienced the same event (risk ratio [RR], 1.40; 95% CI, 1.11-1.76; P = .005). The adjusted mean CDR-SB changes were 2.28 and 0.98 for advanced and nonadvanced AD pattern groups, respectively (P < .001). Analyses with other clinical end point assessments, as well as analyses with each individual study's data, consistently indicated a higher risk of clinical deterioration associated with an advanced AD scan pattern. Conclusions and Relevance: These results suggest that flortaucipir PET scans, when interpreted with an US Food and Drug Administration-approved, clinically applicable visual interpretation method, may provide valuable information regarding the risk of clinical deterioration over 18 months among patients with AD and MCI. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02016560 and NCT03901105.

Positron Emission Tomography Imaging With [18F]flortaucipir and Postmortem Assessment of Alzheimer Disease Neuropathologic Changes.

Importance: Positron emission tomography (PET) may increase the diagnostic accuracy and confirm the underlying neuropathologic changes of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective: To determine the accuracy of antemortem [18F]flortaucipir PET images for predicting the presence of AD-type tau pathology at autopsy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This diagnostic study (A16 primary cohort) was conducted from October 2015 to June 2018 at 28 study sites (27 in US sites and 1 in Australia). Individuals with a terminal illness who were older than 50 years and had a projected life expectancy of less than 6 months were enrolled. All participants underwent [18F]flortaucipir PET imaging, and scans were interpreted by 5 independent nuclear medicine physicians or radiologists. Supplemental autopsy [18F]flortaucipir images and pathological samples were also collected from 16 historically collected cases. A second study (FR01 validation study) was conducted from March 26 to April 26, 2019, in which 5 new readers assessed the original PET images for comparison to autopsy. Main Outcomes and Measures: [18F]flortaucipir PET images were visually assessed and compared with immunohistochemical tau pathology. An AD tau pattern of flortaucipir retention was assessed for correspondence with a postmortem B3-level (Braak stage V or VI) pathological pattern of tau accumulation and to the presence of amyloid-ß plaques sufficient to meet the criteria for high levels of AD neuropathological change. Success was defined as having at least 3 of the 5 readers above the lower bounds of the 95% CI for both sensitivity and specificity of 50% or greater. Results: A total of 156 patients were enrolled in the A16 study and underwent [18F]flortaucipir PET imaging. Of these, 73 died during the study, and valid autopsies were performed for 67 of these patients. Three autopsies were evaluated as test cases and removed from the primary cohort (n = 64). Of the 64 primary cohort patients, 34 (53%) were women and 62 (97%) were white; mean (SD) age was 82.5 (9.6) years; and 49 (77%) had dementia, 1 (2%) had mild cognitive impairment, and 14 (22%) had normal cognition. Prespecified success criteria were met for the A16 primary cohort. The flortaucipir PET scans predicted a B3 level of tau pathology, with sensitivity ranging from 92.3% (95% CI, 79.7%-97.3%) to 100.0% (95% CI, 91.0%-100.0%) and specificity ranging from 52.0% (95% CI, 33.5%-70.0%) to 92.0% (95% CI, 75.0%-97.8%). A high level of AD neuropathological change was predicted with sensitivity of 94.7% (95% CI, 82.7%-98.5%) to 100.0% (95% CI, 90.8%-100.0%) and specificity of 50.0% (95% CI, 32.1%-67.9%) to 92.3% (95% CI, 75.9%-97.9%). The FR01 validation study also met prespecified success criteria. Addition of the supplemental autopsy data set and 3 test cases, which comprised a total of 82 patients and autopsies for both the A16 and FR01 studies, resulted in improved specificity and comparable overall accuracy. Among the 156 enrolled participants, 14 (9%) experienced at least 1 treatment-emergent adverse event. Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest that PET imaging with [18F]flortaucipir could be used to identify the density and distribution of AD-type tau pathology and the presence of high levels of AD neuropathological change, supporting a neuropathological diagnosis of AD.

ABBY: A phase 2 randomized trial of crenezumab in mild to moderate Alzheimer disease.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of crenezumab in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: In this phase 2 trial, 431 patients with mild to moderate AD 50 to 80 years of age were randomized 2:1 (crenezumab:placebo). Patients received low-dose subcutaneous crenezumab 300 mg or placebo every 2 weeks (n = 184) or high-dose intravenous crenezumab 15 mg/kg or placebo every 4 weeks (n = 247) for 68 weeks. Primary outcome measures were change in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog12) and Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes scores from baseline to week 73. RESULTS: The primary and secondary endpoints were not met. In an exploratory post hoc analysis, a reduction in decline on the ADAS-Cog12 was observed in the high-dose group. Separation from the placebo group on the ADAS-Cog12 was greatest in the milder subsets of AD patients and reached statistical significance in the group with Mini-Mental State Examination scores of 22 to 26. In both groups, there was a significant increase in CSF ß-amyloid1-42 levels that correlated with crenezumab CSF levels. The overall rate of adverse events was balanced between groups. One case of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities indicative of vasogenic edema or effusions was reported. CONCLUSIONS: Although prespecified criteria for testing treatment effects were not met, these data suggest a potential treatment effect in patients with mild AD treated with high-dose crenezumab. Together with the safety profile for crenezumab, these data support the exploration of crenezumab treatment at even higher doses in patients with early AD. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT 01343966. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that, for people with AD, crenezumab does not significantly improve cognition or function at 18 months. The study is rated Class II because <80% of enrolled patients completed the study.

Pharmacokinetics and Safety of Velpatasvir and Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir in Subjects with Hepatic Impairment.

BACKGROUND: The pharmacokinetics and safety of velpatasvir, a potent pangenotypic hepatitis C virus NS5A inhibitor, were evaluated in two hepatic impairment studies: a phase I study in hepatitis C virus-uninfected subjects and a phase III study (ASTRAL-4) in hepatitis C virus-infected patients. METHODS: In the phase I study, subjects with moderate or severe hepatic impairment (Child-Pugh-Turcotte Class B or C), and demographically matched subjects with normal hepatic function received a single dose of velpatasvir 100 mg. Pharmacokinetics and safety assessments were performed, and pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated using non-compartmental methods and summarized using descriptive statistics and compared statistically by geometric least-squares mean ratios and 90% confidence intervals. In ASTRAL-4, subjects with decompensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh-Turcotte Class B) were randomized to receive treatment with either sofosbuvir/velpatasvir ± ribavirin for 12 weeks or sofosbuvir/velpatasvir for 24 weeks. Pharmacokinetic and safety assessments were performed and pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated using a non-compartmental analysis and summarized using descriptive statistics and were compared to pharmacokinetics from ASTRAL-1 [subjects without cirrhosis or with compensated (Child-Pugh-Turcotte Class A) cirrhosis]. RESULTS: In the phase I study, plasma exposures (area under the concentration-time curve) were similar in subjects with Child-Pugh-Turcotte Class B (n = 10) or Child-Pugh-Turcotte Class C hepatic impairment (n = 10) compared with normal hepatic function (n = 13). Percent free velpatasvir was similar in subjects without or with any degree of hepatic impairment. In the phase III study, velpatasvir overall exposure (area under the concentration-time curve over the 24-h dosing interval; AUCtau) was similar and sofosbuvir exposures were higher (~ 100%) for patients with Child-Pugh-Turcotte Class B hepatic impairment compared with the ASTRAL-1 population, which was not considered clinically relevant. CONCLUSIONS: No sofosbuvir/velpatasvir dose modification is warranted for patients with any degree of hepatic impairment.

Performance of [18F]flutemetamol amyloid imaging against the neuritic plaque component of CERAD and the current (2012) NIA-AA recommendations for the neuropathologic diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Performance of the amyloid tracer [18F]flutemetamol was evaluated against three pathology standard of truth (SoT) measures including neuritic plaques (CERAD "original" and "modified" and the amyloid component of the 2012 NIA-AA guidelines). METHODS: After [18F]flutemetamol imaging, 106 end-of-life patients who died underwent postmortem brain examination for amyloid plaque load. Blinded positron emission tomography scan interpretations by five independent electronically trained readers were compared with pathology measures. RESULTS: By SoT, sensitivity and specificity of majority image interpretations were, respectively, 91.9% and 87.5% with "original CERAD," 90.8% and 90.0% with "modified CERAD," and 85.7% and 100% with the 2012 NIA-AA criteria. DISCUSSION: The high accuracy of either CERAD criteria suggests that [18F]flutemetamol predominantly reflects neuritic amyloid plaque density. However, the use of CERAD criteria as the SoT can result in some false-positive results because of the presence of diffuse plaques, which are accounted for when the positron emission tomography read is compared with the 2012 NIA-AA criteria.

Dose Selection for an Adjuvanted Respiratory Syncytial Virus F Protein Vaccine for Older Adults Based on Humoral and Cellular Immune Responses.

This is the second phase 1 study of a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine containing RSV fusion protein (sF) adjuvanted with glucopyranosyl lipid A (GLA) in a squalene-based 2% stable emulsion (GLA-SE). In this randomized, double-blind study, 261 subjects aged ≥60 years received inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV), a vaccine containing 120 µg sF with escalating doses of GLA (1, 2.5, or 5 µg) in SE, or a vaccine containing 80 µg sF with 2.5 µg GLA in SE. Subjects receiving 120 µg sF with 2.5 or 5 µg GLA were also randomized to receive IIV or placebo. Immunity to RSV was assessed by detection of microneutralizing, anti-F immunoglobulin G, and palivizumab-competitive antibodies and F-specific gamma interferon enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot assay T-cell responses. Higher adjuvant doses increased injection site discomfort, but at the highest dose, the reactogenicity was similar to that of IIV. Significant humoral and cellular immune responses were observed. The 120 µg sF plus 5.0 µg GLA formulation resulted in the highest responses in all subjects and in older subjects. These results confirm previous observations of vaccine tolerability, safety, and immunogenicity and were used to select the 120 µg sF plus 5.0 µg GLA formulation for phase 2 evaluation. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT02289820.).

A phase 1a, first-in-human, randomized study of a respiratory syncytial virus F protein vaccine with and without a toll-like receptor-4 agonist and stable emulsion adjuvant.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant illness in older adults resulting in substantial health and economic impact. A successful vaccine would reduce morbidity in this growing segment of the population. METHODS: In this double-blind phase 1 study, subjects 60 years of age and older were enrolled by cohort and randomized to receive vaccines containing escalating doses (20, 50, or 80µg) of soluble RSV fusion protein (sF) alone or adjuvanted with 2.5µg of glucopyranosyl lipid A, a toll-like receptor-4 agonist, in 2% stable emulsion (GLA-SE). Each cohort included 20 vaccine and 4 placebo recipients. Immune responses were evaluated using assays for RSV microneutralizing, anti-F IgG, and palivizumab competitive antibodies and for F-specific interferon (IFN)-γ enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) responses. RESULTS: The inclusion of adjuvant increased local reactogenicity, with the majority of subjects who received sF and adjuvant reporting low-grade injection site pain or tenderness. At all doses, the safety profile was acceptable for further development. Immune responses were antigen dose-dependent, and the inclusion of adjuvant increased both humoral and cellular immune responses, with responses statistically higher than for placebo recipients in all 4 assays. At the highest dosage level with adjuvant, half of the subjects had a ≥3-fold rise from day 0 in RSV neutralizing antibody titers, and all had a ≥3-fold rise in antibody levels by anti-F IgG and palivizumab competitive antibody assays on day 29. For the day 8 IFNγ ELISPOT assay, 74% of subjects in the highest dosing cohort had a ≥3-fold rise from baseline. CONCLUSIONS: The safety and immunogenicity results from this study support inclusion of the GLA-SE adjuvant in this RSV vaccine for older adults and also support assessment of the efficacy of the vaccine in a larger clinical trial. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02115815.

Targeting Prodromal Alzheimer Disease With Avagacestat: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Early identification of Alzheimer disease (AD) is important for clinical management and affords the opportunity to assess potential disease-modifying agents in clinical trials. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a randomized trial to prospectively enrich a study population with prodromal AD (PDAD) defined by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker criteria and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) symptoms. OBJECTIVES: To assess the safety of the γ-secretase inhibitor avagacestat in PDAD and to determine whether CSF biomarkers can identify this patient population prior to clinical diagnosis of dementia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2 clinical trial with a parallel, untreated, nonrandomized observational cohort of CSF biomarker-negative participants was conducted May 26, 2009, to July 9, 2013, in a multicenter global population. Of 1358 outpatients screened, 263 met MCI and CSF biomarker criteria for randomization into the treatment phase. One hundred two observational cohort participants who met MCI criteria but were CSF biomarker-negative were observed during the same study period to evaluate biomarker assay sensitivity. INTERVENTIONS: Oral avagacestat or placebo daily. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURE: Safety and tolerability of avagacestat. RESULTS: Of the 263 participants in the treatment phase, 132 were randomized to avagacestat and 131 to placebo; an additional 102 participants were observed in an untreated observational cohort. Avagacestat was relatively well tolerated with low discontinuation rates (19.6%) at a dose of 50 mg/d, whereas the dose of 125 mg/d had higher discontinuation rates (43%), primarily attributable to gastrointestinal tract adverse events. Increases in nonmelanoma skin cancer and nonprogressive, reversible renal tubule effects were observed with avagacestat. Serious adverse event rates were higher with avagacestat (49 participants [37.1%]) vs placebo (31 [23.7%]), attributable to the higher incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer. At 2 years, progression to dementia was more frequent in the PDAD cohort (30.7%) vs the observational cohort (6.5%). Brain atrophy rate in PDAD participants was approximately double that of the observational cohort. Concordance between abnormal amyloid burden on positron emission tomography and pathologic CSF was approximately 87% (κ = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.48-0.87). No significant treatment differences were observed in the avagacestat vs placebo arm in key clinical outcome measures. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Avagacestat did not demonstrate efficacy and was associated with adverse dose-limiting effects. This PDAD population receiving avagacestat or placebo had higher rates of clinical progression to dementia and greater brain atrophy compared with CSF biomarker-negative participants. The CSF biomarkers and amyloid positron emission tomography imaging were correlated, suggesting that either modality could be used to confirm the presence of cerebral amyloidopathy and identify PDAD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00890890.

Phase 3 trial of flutemetamol labeled with radioactive fluorine 18 imaging and neuritic plaque density.

IMPORTANCE: In vivo imaging of brain ß-amyloid, a hallmark of Alzheimer disease, may assist in the clinical assessment of suspected Alzheimer disease. OBJECTIVE: To determine the sensitivity and specificity of positron emission tomography imaging with flutemetamol injection labeled with radioactive fluorine 18 to detect ß-amyloid in the brain using neuropathologically determined neuritic plaque levels as the standard of truth. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Open-label multicenter imaging study that took place at dementia clinics, memory centers, and hospice centers in the United States and England from June 22, 2010, to November 23, 2011. Participants included terminally ill patients who were 55 years or older with a life expectancy of less than 1 year. INTERVENTIONS: Flutemetamol injection labeled with radioactive fluorine 18 (Vizamyl; GE Healthcare) administration followed by positron emission tomography imaging and subsequent brain donation. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity of flutemetamol injection labeled with radioactive fluorine 18 positron emission tomography imaging for brain ß-amyloid. Images were reviewed without and with computed tomography scans and classified as positive or negative for ß-amyloid by 5 readers who were blind to patient information. In patients who died, neuropathologically determined neuritic plaque levels were used to confirm scan interpretations and determine sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Of 176 patients with evaluable images, 68 patients (38%) died during the study, were autopsied, and had neuritic plaque levels determined; 25 brains (37%) were ß-amyloid negative; and 43 brains (63%) were ß-amyloid positive. Imaging was performed a mean of 3.5 months (range, 0 to 13 months) before death. Sensitivity without computed tomography was 81% to 93% (median, 88%). Median specificity was 88%, with 4 of 5 of the readers having specificity greater than 80%. When scans were interpreted with computed tomography images, sensitivity and specificity improved for most readers but the differences were not significant. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.90. There were no clinically meaningful findings in safety parameters. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study showed that flutemetamol injection labeled with radioactive fluorine 18 was safe and had high sensitivity and specificity in an end-of-life population. In vivo detection of brain ß-amyloid plaque density may increase diagnostic accuracy in cognitively impaired patients.