Predicting short-term suicidal thoughts in adolescents using machine learning: developing decision tools to identify daily level risk after hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: Mobile technology offers unique opportunities for monitoring short-term suicide risk in daily life. In this study of suicidal adolescent inpatients, theoretically informed risk factors were assessed daily following discharge to predict near-term suicidal ideation and inform decision algorithms for identifying elevations in daily level risk, with implications for real-time suicide-focused interventions. METHODS: Adolescents (N = 78; 67.9% female) completed brief surveys texted daily for 4 weeks after discharge (n = 1621 observations). Using multi-level classification and regression trees (CARTSs) with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, we tested (a) a simple prediction model incorporating previous-day scores for each of 10 risk factors, and (b) a more complex model incorporating, for each of these factors, a time-varying person-specific mean over prior days together with deviation from that mean. Models also incorporated missingness and contextual (study week, day of the week) indicators. The outcome was the presence/absence of next-day suicidal ideation. RESULTS: The best-performing model (cross-validated AUC = 0.86) was a complex model that included ideation duration, hopelessness, burdensomeness, and self-efficacy to refrain from suicidal action. An equivalent model that excluded ideation duration had acceptable overall performance (cross-validated AUC = 0.78). Models incorporating only previous-day scores, with and without ideation duration (cross-validated AUC of 0.82 and 0.75, respectively), showed relatively weaker performance. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that specific combinations of dynamic risk factors assessed in adolescents' daily life have promising utility in predicting next-day suicidal thoughts. Findings represent an important step in the development of decision tools identifying short-term risk as well as guiding timely interventions sensitive to proximal elevations in suicide risk in daily life.

Short-term associations between nonsuicidal and suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A daily diary study with high-risk adolescents.

BACKGROUND: In this daily dairy study of adolescents at elevated suicide risk, we examined proximal associations between nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal thoughts as well as behaviors. We also investigated the prominence of the anti-suicide function underlying NSSI engagement, relative to intrapersonal and interpersonal motives. METHODS: Seventy-eight adolescents (67.9% female; ages 13-17) hospitalized due to suicide risk completed daily surveys assessing NSSI and suicidal thoughts for four weeks after discharge (n=1621 observations). Suicidal behavior (actual, aborted, interrupted suicide attempts) was assessed at 1-month follow-up. RESULTS: Over and above lifetime NSSI, adolescents who generally experienced more enduring (OR=2.54, p=<.001) and intense (OR=1.87, p=.002) suicidal ideation were more likely to engage in NSSI on a given day. Moreover, NSSI likelihood increased when adolescents experienced more enduring (OR=1.99, p<.001) and intense (OR=1.66, p<.001) ideation relative to their typical levels. This pattern was consistent for those with recent NSSI. The anti-suicide function of NSSI was frequently endorsed at hospitalization and when NSSI occurred daily (65.6% of the time), alongside the intrapersonal-negative motive (to avoid aversive states). Exploratory analyses suggest adolescents with suicidal behavior within the month after discharge experienced higher NSSI levels reported daily over the same period (Hedge's g=1.26, p=<.001). LIMITATIONS: Daily-level associations were examined concurrently and generalizability of results is limited by sample characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The notable proximal associations between NSSI and suicidal thoughts and behaviors, as well as the prominence of the anti-suicide function, point to the importance of intervention efforts targeting these intersecting phenomena among adolescents at elevated suicide risk.

Daily patterns in nonsuicidal self-injury and coping among recently hospitalized youth at risk for suicide.

Among adolescents at high suicide risk, using a daily diary design, this study examined: (1) the co-occurrence between nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal ideation, (2) the link between NSSI and coping, and (3) endorsement of using NSSI to cope with suicidal ideation (anti-suicide function). Thirty-four adolescents hospitalized due to suicide risk (76% female; ages 13-17) responded to daily surveys for four weeks after discharge (n = 650 observations). NSSI was positively associated with suicidal ideation at the between- (i.e. relative to others) and within-person (relative to adolescents' own average) levels of analysis. When NSSI and suicidal thoughts co-occurred, adolescents used NSSI to cope with thoughts of suicide on nearly all occasions. While adolescents did not use less adaptive coping when they engaged in NSSI (i.e. within-person), youth who utilized more coping strategies in general (i.e. between-person) had lower probability of NSSI. The probability of NSSI also decreased when adolescents perceived coping to be helpful and for youth who generally tended to perceive coping as helpful. Findings offer fine-grained insights about the intersection of NSSI, suicidal thoughts, and coping among high-risk adolescents, adding to the body of research highlighting the benefit of broadening adolescents' coping strategies as well as assessing their perceived utility.

Motivational Interviewing-Enhanced Safety Planning for Adolescents at High Suicide Risk: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

This pilot randomized controlled trial examined the feasibility and acceptability of a motivational interview (MI)-enhanced safety planning intervention (MI-SafeCope) for teens hospitalized due to suicide risk and explored proximal outcomes (possible mechanisms of change). Participants were 36 hospitalized adolescents (ages 13-17; 78.8% female) with last-week suicidal ideation and/or past-month suicide attempts. Adolescents were randomized to MI-SafeCope, a three-component intervention (individual and family sessions, postdischarge call), or to treatment as usual. Primary outcomes were feasibility and acceptability. We also explored differences in proximal outcomes assessed at 2 weeks, 1 month, and 3 months (family connectedness, motivation for safety plan use, parental motivation to encourage safety plan use), as well as daily for 4 weeks (self-efficacy, coping behavior, safety plan use). Participation and retention rates and intervention satisfaction ratings indicate feasibility and acceptability. Mixed-effects models of daily assessments indicated, for the MI-SafeCope group, significantly higher self-efficacy to refrain from suicidal action (B = 1.15, p = .030), greater reliance on self to cope with suicidal ideation (B = 1.56, p = .042), and higher likelihood of safety plan use to manage suicidal thoughts (B = 0.25, p = .004). Parents in the MI-SafeCope group reported higher motivation to encourage safety plan use (B = 1.04, p = .031). Safety planning incorporating MI is feasible and acceptable with hospitalized teens. Preliminary findings suggest that MI strategies may be promising in maintaining adherence to safety plans, increasing self-efficacy and coping, and in fostering parents' motivation to encourage safety plan use. Our study also highlights the benefit of daily-level assessment of individuals' response to suicide-specific interventions.

Ecological assessment of daily suicidal thoughts and attempts among suicidal teens after psychiatric hospitalization: Lessons about feasibility and acceptability.

Despite its potential to yield information about the dynamic course of suicidal ideation/behavior in individuals' natural environment, Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) has been strikingly underutilized among suicidal teens. This study reports on feasibility and acceptability of ecological assessment of daily suicide risk-related outcomes ("daily diaries," a special case of EMA) among adolescent inpatients in the critical post-discharge period. Thirty-four adolescents (76% female; ages 13-17) responded to daily electronic surveys for four weeks after discharge. Survey adherence was 69% (n = 650 days) and decreased each week. Adherence was half as likely among adolescents without attempt history (OR = 0.50, CI = 0.27-0.95). Mid- and end-point study responses indicated high acceptability of daily diaries. Most adolescents reported no change or more positive change in their thoughts/mood after daily surveys. Suicidal ideation was reported on 24.4% (n = 159) of the days. In the month post discharge, more teens reported suicidal thoughts using daily surveys (70.6%) compared to end-of-study assessment (45.2%) (Chi-square = 4.24, p = .039). Two participants (5.9%) reported an attempt. Ideation frequency and duration varied across time, suggesting utility of frequent assessments in this context. EMA data collection with high-risk adolescents offers a feasible approach to examining real-time suicidal ideation/behavior, yielding nuanced information that is critical to advancing suicide prevention efforts.