Benefits and harms of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies in women living with HIV.

To support a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reviewed its guidelines for screening and treatment of cervical pre-cancerous lesions in 2021. Women living with HIV have 6-times the risk of cervical cancer compared to women in the general population, and we harnessed a model platform ('Policy1-Cervix-HIV') to evaluate the benefits and harms of a range of screening strategies for women living with HIV in Tanzania, a country with endemic HIV. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that 3-yearly primary HPV screening without triage would reduce age-standardised cervical cancer mortality rates by 72%, with a number needed to treat (NNT) of 38.7, to prevent a cervical cancer death. Triaging HPV positive women before treatment resulted in minimal loss of effectiveness and had more favorable NNTs (19.7-33.0). Screening using visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or cytology was less effective than primary HPV and, in the case of VIA, generated a far higher NNT of 107.5. These findings support the WHO 2021 recommendation that women living with HIV are screened with primary HPV testing in a screen-triage-and-treat approach starting at 25 years, with regular screening every 3-5 years.

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population.

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix, to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening approaches were the most effective and cost-effective, reducing cervical cancer age-standardized mortality rates by 63-67% when offered every 5 years. Strategies involving triaging women before treatment (with 16/18 genotyping, cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or colposcopy) had close-to-similar effectiveness to HPV screening without triage and fewer pre-cancer treatments. Screening with VIA or cytology every 3 years was less effective and less cost-effective than HPV screening every 5 years. Furthermore, VIA generated more than double the number of pre-cancer treatments compared to HPV. In conclusion, primary HPV screening is the most effective, cost-effective and efficient cervical screening option in LMICs. These findings have directly informed WHO's updated cervical screening guidelines for the general population of women, which recommend primary HPV screening in a screen-and-treat or screen-triage-and-treat approach, starting from age 30 years with screening every 5 years or 10 years.

Out-of-pocket Expenses and Time Spent on Clinic Visits Among HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Users and Other Clinic Attendees in Eswatini.

User costs constitute a barrier to the uptake of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), but their magnitude appears rarely assessed. In this prospective observational study, we assessed self-reported out-of-pocket expenses (OOPE) and time spent on clinic visits during a PrEP demonstration project in Eswatini. At six public primary care clinics, 240 PrEP users and other clinic attendees were interviewed after a clinic visit. Among the 79.2% of clinic attendees reporting any medical OOPE (e.g., expenses for consultations or drugs) and/or non-medical OOPE (e.g., expenses for transport, food, or phone use), the median total OOPE was $1.36 (IQR 0.91-1.96). Non-medical OOPE occurred mostly due to transport expenses. The median travel time for a clinic visit was 1.0 h (IQR 0.67-2.0). The median time spent in the clinic was 2.0 h (IQR 1.15-3.0). The median opportunity cost of a clinic visit was $7.54 (IQR 5.42-11) when valuing time spent on a clinic visit with Eswatini's per-capita gross domestic product. Our findings can guide measures to reduce the user costs of PrEP in Eswatini and other contexts in which oral PrEP is provided through health care facilities.

RESUMEN: Los costes de los usuarios constituyen un obstáculo para la adopción de la profilaxis previa a la exposición al VIH (PrEP), pero su magnitud rara vez se evalúa. En este estudio observacional prospectivo, evaluamos los gastos de bolsillo (OOPE) declarados por los propios usuarios y el tiempo dedicado a las visitas clínicas durante un proyecto de demostración de la PrEP en Eswatini. En seis clínicas públicas de atención primaria, se entrevistó a 240 usuarios de la PrEP y a otros asistentes a la clínica después de una visita a la misma. Entre el 79,2% de los asistentes a las clínicas que declararon algún OOPE médico (por ejemplo, gastos por consultas o medicamentos) y/o OOPE no médico (por ejemplo, gastos de transporte, comida o uso del teléfono), la mediana del OOPE total fue de 1,36 dólares (IQR: 0,91­1,96). Los gastos no médicos se debieron principalmente a los gastos de transporte. La mediana del tiempo de viaje para una visita a la clínica fue de 1,0 horas (IQR 0,67­2,0). La mediana del tiempo empleado en la clínica fue de 2 horas (IQR 1,15­3,0). La mediana del coste de oportunidad de una visita a la clínica fue de 7,65 dólares (IQR 5,55­11) al valorar el tiempo dedicado a una visita a la clínica con el producto interior bruto per cápita de Eswatini. Nuestros resultados pueden orientar las medidas para reducir los costes de uso de la PrEP en Eswatini y en otros contextos en los que se suministra la PrEP oral a través de los centros de salud.

Estimating the effect of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in South Africa: Comparative modelling of the impact of vaccination and screening.

Background: In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched its initiative to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To inform global efforts for countries with high HIV and cervical cancer burden, we assessed the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening and treatment in South Africa, on cervical cancer and the potential for achieving elimination before 2120, considering faster HPV disease progression and higher cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV(WLHIV) and HIV interventions. Methods: Three independent transmission-dynamic models simulating HIV and HPV infections and disease progression were used to predict the impact on cervical cancer incidence of three scenarios for all women: 1) girls' vaccination (9-14 years old), 2) girls' vaccination plus 1 lifetime cervical screen (at 35 years), and 3) girls' vaccination plus 2 lifetime cervical screens (at 35 and 45 years) and three enhanced scenarios for WLHIV: 4) vaccination of young WLHIV aged 15-24 years, 5) three-yearly cervical screening of WLHIV aged 15-49 years, or 6) both. Vaccination assumed 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection with the nonavalent vaccine (against HPV-16/18/31/33/45/52/58). Cervical cancer screening assumed HPV testing with uptake increasing from 45% (2023), 70% (2030) to 90% (2045+). We also assumed that UNAIDS 90-90-90 HIV treatment and 70% male circumcision targets are reached by 2030. We examined three elimination thresholds: age-standardised cervical cancer incidence rates below 4 or 10 per 100,000 women-years, and >85% reduction in cervical cancer incidence rate. We conducted sensitivity analyses and presented the median age-standardised predictions of outcomes of the three models (minimum-maximum across models). Findings: Girls' vaccination could reduce age-standardised cervical cancer incidence from a median of 47.6 (40.9-79.2) in 2020 to 4.5 (3.2-6.3) per 100,000 women-years by 2120, averting on average ∼4% and ∼46% of age-standardised cumulative cervical cancer cases over 25 and 100 years, respectively, compared to the basecase. Adding 2 lifetime screens helped achieve elimination over the century among all women (2120 cervical cancer incidence: 3.6 (1.9-3.6) per 100,000 women-years), but not among WLHIV (10.8 (5.3-11.6)), and averted more cumulative cancer cases overall (∼45% over 25 years and ∼61% over 100 years compared to basecase) than girls' vaccination alone. Adding three-yearly cervical screening among WLHIV (to girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens) further reduced age-standardised cervical cancer incidence to 3.3 (1.8-3.6) per 100,000 women-years overall and to 5.2 (3.9-8.5) among WLHIV by 2120 and averted on average 12-13% additional cumulative cancer cases among all women and 21-24% among WLHIV than girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens over 25 years or longer. Long-term vaccine protection and using the nonavalent vaccine was required for elimination. Interpretation: High HPV vaccination coverage of girls and 2 lifetime cervical screens could eliminate cervical cancer among women overall in South Africa by the end of the century and substantially decrease cases among all women and WLHIV over the short and medium term. Cervical cancer elimination in WLHIV would likely require enhanced prevention strategies for WLHIV. Screening of WLHIV remains an important strategy to reduce incidence and alleviate disparities in cervical cancer burden between women with and without HIV, despite HIV interventions scale-up. Funding: World Health Organization. National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, UK Medical Research Council. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development research. Cancer Association of South Africa. Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé research.

Human resource needs and costs for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis provision in nurse-led primary care in Eswatini and opportunities for task sharing.

BACKGROUND: The global expansion of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) includes health systems that face a shortage of skilled health care workers (HCWs). We estimated the human resource needs and costs for providing PrEP in nurse-led primary care clinics in Eswatini. Furthermore, we assessed potential cost savings from task sharing between nurses and other HCW cadres. METHODS: We conducted a time-and-motion and costing study in a PrEP demonstration project between August 2017 and January 2019. A form for recording time and performed activities ("motion") was filled by HCWs of six primary care clinics. To estimate the human resource needs for specific PrEP activities, we allocated recorded times to performed PrEP activities using linear regression with and without adjusting for a workflow interruption, that is, if a client was seen by different HCWs or by the same HCW at different times. We assessed a base case in which a nurse provides all PrEP activities and five task shifting scenarios, of which four include workflow interruptions due to task sharing between different HCW cadres. RESULTS: On average, PrEP initiation required 29 min (95% CI 25-32) of HCW time and PrEP follow-up 16 min (95% CI 14-18). The HCW time cost $4.55 (uncertainty interval [UI] 1.52-9.69) for PrEP initiation and $2.54 (UI 1.07-4.64) for PrEP follow-up when all activities were performed by a nurse. Time costs were $2.30-4.25 (UI 0.62-9.19) for PrEP initiation and $1.06-2.60 (UI 0.30-5.44) for PrEP follow-up when nurses shared tasks with HCWs from lower cadres. Interruptions of the workflow added, on average, 3.4 min (95% CI 0.69-6.0) to the time HCWs needed for a given number of PrEP activities. The cost of an interrupted workflow was estimated at $0.048-0.87 (UI 0.0098-1.63) depending on whose time need increased. CONCLUSIONS: A global shortage of skilled HCWs could slow the expansion of PrEP. Task shifting to lower-cadre HCW in nurse-led PrEP provision can free up nurse time and reduce the cost of PrEP provision even if interruptions associated with task sharing increase the overall human resource need.

Diagnostic accuracy of cervical cancer screening strategies for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+/CIN3+) among women living with HIV: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: We systematically reviewed the diagnostic accuracy of cervical cancer screening and triage strategies in women living with HIV (WLHIV). Methods: Cochrane Library, Embase, Global Health and Medline were searched for randomised controlled trials, prospective or cross-sectional studies published from database inception to 15 July 2022 reporting diagnostic accuracy of tests in cervical cancer screening and triage of screen-positive WLHIV. Studies were included if they reported the diagnostic accuracy of any cervical cancer screening or triage strategies for the detection of histologically-confirmed high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+/CIN3+) among WLHIV. Summary data were extracted from published reports. Authors were contacted for missing data where applicable. Sensitivity and specificity estimates for CIN2/3+ were pooled using models for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy data. Study quality was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool for the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. PROSPERO registration:CRD42020189031. Findings: In 38 studies among 18,737 WLHIV, the majority (n=19) were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. The pooled prevalence was 12.0% (95%CI:9.8-14.1) for CIN2+ and 6.7% (95%CI:5.0-8.4) for CIN3+. The proportion of screen-positive ranged from 3-31% (visual inspection using acetic acid[VIA]); 2-46% (high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, and greater [HSIL+] cytology); 20-64% (high-risk[HR]-HPV DNA). In 14 studies, sensitivity and specificity of VIA were variable limiting the reliability of pooled estimates. In 5 studies where majority had histology-confirmed CIN2+, pooled sensitivity was 56.0% (95%CI:45.4-66.1; I2=65%) for CIN2+ and 65.0% (95%CI:52.9-75.4; I2 =42%) for CIN3+; specificity for

Immunogenicity, safety, and efficacy of the HPV vaccines among people living with HIV: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Vaccines have been demonstrated to protect against high-risk human papillomavirus infection (HPV), including HPV-16/18, and cervical lesions among HIV negative women. However, their efficacy remains uncertain for people living with HIV (PLHIV).We systematically reviewed available evidence on HPV vaccine on immunological, virological, or other biological outcomes in PLHIV. Methods: We searched five electronic databases (PubMed, Medline and Embase, clinicaltrials.gov and the WHO clinical trial database) for longitudinal prospective studies reporting immunogenicity, virological, cytological, histological, clinical or safety endpoints following prophylactic HPV vaccination among PLHIV. We included studies published by February 11th, 2021. We summarized results, assessed study quality, and conducted meta-analysis and subgroup analyses, where possible. Findings: We identified 43 publications stemming from 18 independent studies (Ns =18), evaluating the quadrivalent (Ns =15), bivalent (Ns =4) and nonavalent (Ns =1) vaccines. A high proportion seroconverted for the HPV vaccine types. Pooled proportion seropositive by 28 weeks following 3 doses with the bivalent, quadrivalent, and nonavalent vaccines were 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.00, Ns =1), 0.99 (0.98-1.00, Ns =9), and 1.00 (0.99-1.00, Ns =1) for HPV-16 and 0.99 (0.96-1.00, Ns =1), 0.94 (0.91-0.96, Ns =9), and 1.00 (0.99-1.00, Ns =1) for HPV-18, respectively. Seropositivity remained high among people who received 3 doses despite some declines in antibody titers and lower seropositivity over time, especially for HPV-18, for the quadrivalent than the bivalent vaccine, and for HIV positive than negative individuals. Seropositivity for HPV-18 at 29-99 weeks among PLHIV was 0.72 (0.66-0.79, Ns =8) and 0.96 (0.92-0.99, Ns =2) after 3 doses of the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccine, respectively and 0.94 (0.90-0.98, Ns =3) among HIV-negative historical controls. Evidence suggests that the seropositivity after vaccination declines over time but it can lasts at least 2-4 years. The vaccines were deemed safe among PLHIV with few serious adverse events. Evidence of HPV vaccine efficacy against acquisition of HPV infection and/or associated disease from the eight trials available was inconclusive due to the low quality. Interpretation: PLHIV have a robust and safe immune response to HPV vaccination. Antibody titers and seropositivity rates decline over time but remain high. The lack of a formal correlate of protection and efficacy results preclude definitive conclusions on the clinical benefits. Nevertheless, given the burden of HPV disease in PLHIV, although the protection may be shorter or less robust against HPV-18, the robust immune response suggests that PLHIV may benefit from receiving HPV vaccination after acquiring HIV. Better quality studies are needed to demonstrate the clinical efficacy among PLHIV. Funding: World Health Organization. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, UK Medical Research Council (MRC).

Cost-effectiveness and impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV among men who have sex with men in Asia: A modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: More than 70% of new HIV infections in Asia occurred in eight countries in 2020: Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand, and Vietnam-with a rising incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for those at risk of acquiring HIV, yet wide-scale implementation of PrEP, on a daily or event-driven basis, has been limited in Asia. METHODS: The Optima HIV model was applied to examine the impact of scaling-up PrEP over five-years to cover an additional 15% of MSM compared with baseline coverage, a target deemed feasible by regional experts. Based on behavioral survey data, we assume that covering 15% of higher-risk MSM will cover 30% of all sexual acts in this group. Scenarios to compare the impact of generic-brand daily dosing of PrEP with generic event-driven dosing (15 days a month) were modelled from the start of 2022 to the end of 2026. Cost-effectiveness of generic versus branded PrEP was also assessed for China, the only country with an active patent for branded, higher cost PrEP. The impact on new HIV infections among the entire population and cost per HIV-related disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted were estimated from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2031 and from 2022 to 2051. RESULTS: If PrEP were scaled-up to cover an additional 15% of MSM engaging in higher-risk behavior from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2026 in the eight Asian countries considered, an additional 100,000 (66,000-130,000) HIV infections (17%) and 300,000 (198,000-390,000) HIV-related DALYs (3%) could be averted over the 2022 to 2031 period. The estimated cost per HIV-related DALY averted from 2022 to 2031 ranged from US$600 for event-driven generic PrEP in Indonesia to US$34,400 for daily branded PrEP in Thailand. Over a longer timeframe from 2022 to 2051, the cost per HIV-related DALY averted could be reduced to US$100-US$12,700. CONCLUSION: PrEP is a critical tool to further reduce HIV incidence in highly concentrated epidemics. Implementing PrEP in Asia may be cost-effective in settings with increasing HIV prevalence among MSM and if PrEP drug costs can be reduced, PrEP could be more cost-effective over longer timeframes.

Cost-effectiveness of easy-access, risk-informed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Approaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective. METHODS: We applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP. FINDINGS: In the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished. INTERPRETATION: Under the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of HIV Recency Assays for HIV Incidence Estimation and Other Surveillance Use Cases: Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: HIV assays designed to detect recent infection, also known as "recency assays," are often used to estimate HIV incidence in a specific country, region, or subpopulation, alone or as part of recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs). Recently, many countries and organizations have become interested in using recency assays within case surveillance systems and routine HIV testing services to measure other indicators beyond incidence, generally referred to as "non-incidence surveillance use cases." OBJECTIVE: This review aims to identify published evidence that can be used to validate methodological approaches to recency-based incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases. The evidence identified through this review will be used in the forthcoming technical guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) on the use of HIV recency assays for identification of epidemic trends, whether for HIV incidence estimation or non-incidence indicators of recency. METHODS: To identify the best methodological and field implementation practices for the use of recency assays to estimate HIV incidence and trends in recent infections for specific populations or geographic areas, we conducted a systematic review of the literature to (1) understand the use of recency testing for surveillance in programmatic and laboratory settings, (2) review methodologies for implementing recency testing for both incidence estimation and non-incidence use cases, and (3) assess the field performance characteristics of commercially available recency assays. RESULTS: Among the 167 documents included in the final review, 91 (54.5%) focused on assay or algorithm performance or methodological descriptions, with high-quality evidence of accurate age- and sex-disaggregated HIV incidence estimation at national or regional levels in general population settings, but not at finer geographic levels for prevention prioritization. The remaining 76 (45.5%) described the field use of incidence assays including field-derived incidence (n=45), non-incidence (n=25), and both incidence and non-incidence use cases (n=6). The field use of incidence assays included integrating RITAs into routine surveillance and assisting with molecular genetic analyses, but evidence was generally weaker or only reported on what was done, without validation data or findings related to effectiveness of using non-incidence indicators calculated through the use of recency assays as a proxy for HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS: HIV recency assays have been widely validated for estimating HIV incidence in age- and sex-specific populations at national and subnational regional levels; however, there is a lack of evidence validating the accuracy and effectiveness of using recency assays to identify epidemic trends in non-incidence surveillance use cases. More research is needed to validate the use of recency assays within HIV testing services, to ensure findings can be accurately interpreted to guide prioritization of public health programming.

Kidney function in tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis users: a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature and a multi-country meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Previous WHO guidance on tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) suggests measuring creatinine levels at PrEP initiation and regularly afterwards, which might represent barriers to PrEP implementation and uptake. We aimed to systematically review published literature on kidney toxicity among tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral PrEP users and conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) on kidney function among PrEP users in a global implementation project dataset. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched PubMed up to June 30, 2021, for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or cohort studies that reported on graded kidney-related adverse events among oral PrEP users (tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based PrEP alone or in combination with emtricitabine or lamivudine). We extracted summary data and conducted meta-analyses with random-effects models to estimate relative risks of grade 1 and higher and grade 2 and higher kidney-related adverse events, measured by elevated serum creatinine or decline in estimated creatinine clearance or estimated glomerular filtration rate. The IPDMA included (largely unpublished) individual participant data from 17 PrEP implementation projects and two RCTs. Estimated baseline creatinine clearance and creatinine clearance change after initiation were described by age, gender, and comorbidities. We used random-effects regressions to estimate the risk in decline of creatinine clearance to less than 60 mL/min. FINDINGS: We identified 62 unique records and included 17 articles reporting on 11 RCTs with 13 523 participants in meta-analyses. PrEP use was associated with increased risk of grade 1 and higher kidney adverse events (pooled odds ratio [OR] 1·49, 95% CI 1·22-1·81; I2=25%) and grade 2 and higher events (OR 1·75, 0·68-4·49; I2=0%), although the grade 2 and higher association was not statistically significant and events were rare (13 out of 6764 in the intervention group vs six out of 6782 in the control group). The IPDMA included 18 676 individuals from 15 countries (1453 [7·8%] from RCTs) and 79 (0·42%) had a baseline estimated creatinine clearance of less than 60 mL/min (increasing proportions with increasing age). Longitudinal analyses included 14 368 PrEP users and 349 (2·43%) individuals had a decline to less than 60 mL/min creatinine clearance, with higher risks associated with increasing age and baseline creatinine clearance of 60·00-89·99 mL/min (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8·49, 95% CI 6·44-11·20) and less than 60 mL/min (aHR 20·83, 12·83-33·82). INTERPRETATION: RCTs suggest that risks of kidney-related adverse events among tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-based oral PrEP users are increased but generally mild and small. Our global PrEP user analysis found varying risks by age and baseline creatinine clearance. Kidney function screening and monitoring might focus on older individuals, those with baseline creatinine clearance of less than 90 mL/min, and those with kidney-related comorbidities. Less frequent or optional screening among younger individuals without kidney-related comorbidities may reduce barriers to PrEP implementation and use. FUNDING: Unitaid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Age-specific burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV: A global analysis with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa.

HIV substantially worsens human papillomavirus (HPV) carcinogenicity and contributes to an important population excess of cervical cancer, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimated HIV- and age-stratified cervical cancer burden at a country, regional and global level in 2020. Proportions of cervical cancer (a) diagnosed in women living with HIV (WLHIV), and (b) attributable to HIV, were calculated using age-specific estimates of HIV prevalence (UNAIDS) and relative risk. These proportions were validated against empirical data and applied to age-specific cervical cancer incidence (GLOBOCAN 2020). HIV was most important in SSA, where 24.9% of cervical cancers were diagnosed in WLHIV, and 20.4% were attributable to HIV (vs 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively, in the rest of the world). In all world regions, contribution of HIV to cervical cancer was far higher in younger women (as seen also in empirical series). For example, in Southern Africa, where more than half of cervical cancers were diagnosed in WLHIV, the HIV-attributable fraction decreased from 86% in women ≤34 years to only 12% in women ≥55 years. The absolute burden of HIV-attributable cervical cancer (approximately 28 000 cases globally) also shifted toward younger women: in Southern Africa, 63% of 5341 HIV-attributable cervical cancer occurred in women <45 years old, compared to only 17% of 6901 non-HIV-attributable cervical cancer. Improved quantification of cervical cancer burden by age and HIV status can inform cervical cancer prevention efforts in SSA, including prediction of the impact of WLHIV-targeted vs general population approaches to cervical screening, and impact of HIV prevention.

Implementation research to accelerate scale-up of national screen and treat strategies towards the elimination of cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is a significant public health problem, with 570,000 new cases and 300,000 deaths of women per year globally, mostly in low- and middle-income countries. In 2018 the WHO Director General made a call to action for the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem. MAIN BODY: New thinking on programmatic approaches to introduce emerging technologies and screening and treatment interventions of cervical precancer at scale is needed to achieve elimination goals. Implementation research (IR) is an important yet underused tool for facilitating scale-up of evidence-based screening and treatment interventions, as most research has focused on developing and evaluating new interventions. It is time for countries to define their specific IR needs to understand acceptability, feasibility, and cost-effectiveness of interventions as to design and ensure effective implementation, scale-up, and sustainability of evidence-based screening and treatment interventions. WHO convened an expert advisory group to identify priority IR questions for HPV-based screening and treatment interventions in population-based programmes. Several international organizations are supporting large scale introduction of screen-and-treat approaches in many countries, providing ideal platforms to evaluate different approaches and strategies in diverse national contexts. CONCLUSION: For reducing cervical cancer incidence and mortality, the readiness of health systems, the reach and effectiveness of new technologies and algorithms for increasing screening and treatment coverage, and the factors that support sustainability of these programmes need to be better understood. Answering these key IR questions could provide actionable guidance for countries seeking to implement the WHO Global Strategy towards cervical cancer elimination.

Retention of knowledge and clinical competence among Ugandan mid-level health providers 1 year after intensive clinical mentorship in TB and HIV management.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical mentorship is effective in improving knowledge and competence of health providers and may be a useful task sharing approach for improving antiretroviral therapy. However, the endurance of the effect of clinical mentorship is uncertain. METHODS: The midlevel health providers who participated in a cluster-randomized trial of one-on-one, on-site, clinical mentorship in tuberculosis and HIV for 8 h a week, every 6 weeks over 9 months were followed to determine if the gains in knowledge and competence that occurred after the intervention were sustained 6- and 12-months post-intervention. In December 2014 and June 2015, their knowledge and clinical competence were respectively assessed using vignettes and a clinical observation tool of patient care. Multilevel mixed effects regression analysis was used to compare the differences in mean scores for knowledge and clinical competence between times 0, 1, 2, and 3 by arm. RESULTS: At the end of the intervention phase of the trial, the mean gain in knowledge scores and clinical competence scores in the intervention arm was 13.4% (95% confidence interval ([CI]: 7.2, 19.6), and 27.8% (95% CI: 21.1, 34.5) respectively, with no changes seen in the control arm. Following the end of the intervention; knowledge mean scores in the intervention arm did not significantly decrease at 6 months (0.6% [95% CI - 1.4, 2.6]) or 12 months (- 2.8% [95% CI: - 5.9, 0.3]) while scores in the control arm significantly increased at 6 months (6.6% [95% CI: 4.4, 8.9]) and 12 months (7.9% [95% CI: 5.4, 10.5]). Also, no significant decrease in clinical competence mean scores for intervention arm was seen at 6 month (2.8% [95% CI: - 1.8, 7.5] and 12 months (3.7% [95% CI: - 2.4, 9.8]) while in the control arm, a significant increase was seen at 6 months (5.8% [95% CI: 1.2, 10.3] and 12 months (11.5% [95% CI: 7.6, 15.5]). CONCLUSIONS: Mentees sustained the competence and knowledge gained after the intervention for a period of one year. Although, there was an increase in knowledge in the control group over the follow-up period, MLP in the intervention arm experienced earlier and sustained gains. One-on-one clinical mentorship should be scaled-up as a task-sharing approach to improve clinical care. Trial Registration The study received ethics approvals from 3 institutions-the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Institutional Review Board (USA), the Institutional Review Board "JCRC's HIV/AIDS Research Committee" IRB#1-IRB00001515 with Federal Wide Assurance number (FWA00009772) based in Kampala and the Uganda National Council of Science and Technology (Uganda) which approves all scientific protocols to be implemented in Uganda.

Adoption of guidelines on and use of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis: a global summary and forecasting study.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the UN General Assembly set a global target of 3 million oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users by 2020. With this target at an end, we aimed to assess global trends in the adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines and numbers of PrEP users, defined as people who received oral PrEP at least once in a given year, and to estimate future trajectories of PrEP use. METHODS: In this global summary and forecasting study, data on adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations and numbers of PrEP users were obtained through the Global AIDS Monitoring system and WHO regional offices. Trends in these indicators for 2016-19 by region and for 2019 by country were described, including by gender and priority populations where data were available. PrEP user numbers were forecasted until 2023 by selecting countries with at least 3 years of PrEP user data as example countries in each region to represent possible future PrEP user trajectories. PrEP user growth rates observed in example countries were applied to countries in corresponding regions under different scenarios, including a COVID-19 disruption scenario with static global PrEP use in 2020. FINDINGS: By the end of 2019, 120 (67%) of 180 countries with data had adopted the WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines (23 in 2019 and 30 in 2018). In 2019, there were about 626 000 PrEP users across 77 countries, including 260 000 (41·6%) in the region of the Americas and 213 000 (34·0%) in the African region; this is a 69% increase from about 370 000 PrEP users across 66 countries in 2018. Without COVID-19 disruptions, 0·9-1·1 million global PrEP users were projected by the end of 2020 and 2·4-5·3 million are projected by the end of 2023. If COVID-19 disruptions resulted in no PrEP user growth in 2020, the projected number of PrEP users in 2023 is 2·1-3·0 million. INTERPRETATION: Widespread adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations coincided with a global increase in PrEP use. Although the 2020 global PrEP target will be missed, strong future growth in PrEP use is possible. New PrEP products could expand the PrEP user base, and, with greater expansion of oral PrEP, further adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations, and simplified delivery, PrEP could contribute to ending AIDS by 2030. FUNDING: Unitaid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and WHO.

Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men, and overall. SETTING: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin). METHODS: We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city population-specific and risk population-specific demographic/behavioral/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared with a scenario without COVID-19. RESULTS: A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31%, and 23% among men who have sex with men, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé, respectively, and 69%, 49%, and 23% among FSW, clients, and overall, respectively, in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in condom use after COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritized to minimize short-term excess HIV-related deaths.

Estimating HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis need and impact in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia: A geospatial and risk-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a WHO-recommended HIV prevention method for people at high risk for acquiring HIV, is being increasingly implemented in many countries. Setting programmatic targets, particularly in generalised epidemics, could incorporate estimates of the size of the population likely to be eligible for PrEP using incidence-based thresholds. We estimated the proportion of men and women who would be eligible for PrEP and the number of HIV infections that could be averted in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia using prioritisation based on age, sex, geography, and markers of risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed the latest nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia to determine the proportion of adults who report behavioural markers of risk for HIV infection. We used prevalence ratios (PRs) to quantify the association of these factors with HIV status. Using a multiplier method, we combined these proportions with the number of new HIV infections by district, derived from district-level modelled HIV estimates. Based on these numbers, different scenarios were analysed for the minimum number of person-years on PrEP needed to prevent 1 HIV infection (NNP). An estimated total of 38,000, 108,000, and 46,000 new infections occurred in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia in 2016, corresponding with incidence rates of 0.43, 0.63, and 0.57 per 100 person-years. In these countries, 9%-20% of new infections occurred among people with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months and 40%-42% among people with either an STI or a non-regular sexual partner (NP) in the past 12 months (STINP). The models estimate that around 50% of new infections occurred in districts with incidence rates ≥1.0% in Mozambique and Zambia and ≥0.5% in Malawi. In Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, 35.1%, 21.9%, and 12.5% of the population live in these high-incidence districts. In the most parsimonious scenario, if women aged 15-34 years and men 20-34 years with an STI in the past 12 months living in high-incidence districts were to take PrEP, it would take a minimum of 65.8 person-years on PrEP to avert 1 HIV infection per year in Malawi, 35.2 in Mozambique, and 16.4 in Zambia. Our findings suggest that 3,300, 5,200, and 1,700 new infections could be averted per year in the 3 countries, respectively. Limitations of our study are that these values are based on modelled estimates of HIV incidence and self-reported behavioural risk factors from national surveys. CONCLUSIONS: A large proportion of new HIV infections in these 3 African countries were estimated to occur among people who had either an STI or an NP in the past year, providing a straightforward means to set PrEP targets. Greater prioritisation of PrEP by district, sex, age, and behavioural risk factors resulted in lower NNPs thereby increasing PrEP cost-effectiveness, but also diminished the overall impact on reducing new infections.

Estimates of the global burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV.

BACKGROUND: HIV enhances human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced carcinogenesis. However, the contribution of HIV to cervical cancer burden at a population level has not been quantified. We aimed to investigate cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV and to estimate the global cervical cancer burden associated with HIV. METHODS: We did a systematic literature search and meta-analysis of five databases (PubMed, Embase, Global Health [CABI.org], Web of Science, and Global Index Medicus) to identify studies analysing the association between HIV infection and cervical cancer. We estimated the pooled risk of cervical cancer among women living with HIV across four continents (Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America). The risk ratio (RR) was combined with country-specific UNAIDS estimates of HIV prevalence and GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cervical cancer to calculate the proportion of women living with HIV among women with cervical cancer and population attributable fractions and age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV-attributable cervical cancer. FINDINGS: 24 studies met our inclusion criteria, which included 236 127 women living with HIV. The pooled risk of cervical cancer was increased in women living with HIV (RR 6·07, 95% CI 4·40-8·37). Globally, 5·8% (95% CI 4·6-7·3) of new cervical cancer cases in 2018 (33 000 new cases, 95% CI 26 000-42 000) were diagnosed in women living with HIV and 4·9% (95% CI 3·6-6·4) were attributable to HIV infection (28 000 new cases, 20 000-36 000). The most affected regions were southern Africa and eastern Africa. In southern Africa, 63·8% (95% CI 58·9-68·1) of women with cervical cancer (9200 new cases, 95% CI 8500-9800) were living with HIV, as were 27·4% (23·7-31·7) of women in eastern Africa (14 000 new cases, 12 000-17 000). ASIRs of HIV-attributable cervical cancer were more than 20 per 100 000 in six countries, all in southern Africa and eastern Africa. INTERPRETATION: Women living with HIV have a significantly increased risk of cervical cancer. HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening for women living with HIV are especially important for countries in southern Africa and eastern Africa, where a substantial HIV-attributable cervical cancer burden has added to the existing cervical cancer burden. FUNDING: WHO, US Agency for International Development, and US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Neighborhood greenness and burden of non-communicable diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa: A multi-country cross-sectional study.

Population growth, demographic transitions and urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will increase non-communicable disease (NCD) burden. We studied the association between neighborhood greenness and NCDs in a multi-country cross-sectional study. Among 1178 participants, in adjusted models, a 0.11 unit NDVI increase was associated with lower BMI (ß: -1.01, 95% CI: -1.35, -0.67), and lower odds of overweight/obesity (aOR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.85), diabetes (aOR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.96), and having ≥3 allostatic load components compared to none (aOR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.85). Except for diabetes, these remained statistically significant after Bonferroni correction. We observed no association between NDVI and hypertension or cholesterol. Our findings are consistent with health benefits of neighborhood greenness reported in other countries, suggesting greening strategies could be considered as part of broader public health interventions for NCDs.

Interventions to improve daily medication use among adolescents and young adults: what can we learn for youth pre-exposure prophylaxis services?

OBJECTIVE: Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important HIV prevention method and studies have shown that young people ages 15-24 have difficulty adhering to daily PrEP. The field of PrEP delivery for young people is relatively nascent and lessons about potential PrEP adherence interventions could be learned from the larger evidence base of adherence interventions for other daily medications among youth. DESIGN: Systematic review of adherence support interventions for adolescents. METHODS: We searched PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, and PsycINFO through January 2020 for oral contraceptive pill (OCP), antiretroviral therapy (ART), asthma, and diabetes medication adherence interventions. We reviewed primary articles about OCP adherence interventions and reviewed systematic reviews for ART, asthma, and diabetes medication adherence interventions. Studies were retained if they included participants' ages 10-24 years; measured OCP, ART, asthma, or diabetes medication adherence; and were systematic reviews, randomized trials, or quasi-experimental studies. RESULTS: Fifteen OCP articles and 26 ART, diabetes, and asthma systematic reviews were included. Interventions that improved medication adherence for OCPs, ART, asthma, and diabetes treatment included reminder text messages, computer-based and phone-based support, and enhanced counseling. Multi-month prescriptions and same-day pill starts also were found to improve OCP adherence and continuation. Adolescent-friendly clinics and peer-based counseling significantly improved ART adherence, and telemedicine interventions improved diabetes medication adherence. CONCLUSION: Interventions that improve medication adherence among youth include enhanced counseling, extended pill supply, adolescent-friendly services, and text message reminders. PrEP programs could incorporate and evaluate such interventions for their impact on PrEP adherence and continuation among at-risk adolescents.