Effects of temperature and precipitation changes on shifts in breeding phenology of an endangered toad.

In the last century, a plethora of species have shown rapid phenological changes in response to climate change. Among animals, amphibians exhibit some of the greatest responses since their activity strongly depends on temperature and rainfall regimes. These shifts in phenology can have negative consequences for amphibian fitness. Thus, understanding phenological changes in amphibians is pivotal to design conservation actions to mitigate climate change effects. We used data on Common Spadefoot Toad (Pelobates fuscus) reproductive migration to wetlands over a period of 8 years in Italy to (i) identify the factors related to breeding migrations, (ii) assess potential phenological shifts in the breeding period, and (iii) determine which climatic factors are related to the observed phenological shifts. Our results showed that toads migrate to spawning sites preferably in early spring, on rainy days with temperatures of 9-14 °C, and with high humidity. Furthermore, despite an increase in average temperature across the study period, we observed a delay in the start of breeding migrations of 12.4 days over 8 years. This counterintuitive pattern was the result of a succession of hot and dry years that occurred in the study area, highlighting that for ephemeral pond breeders, precipitation could have a larger impact than temperature on phenology. Our results belie the strong presumption that climate change will shift amphibian phenology toward an earlier breeding migration and underline the importance of closely investigating the environmental factors related to species phenology.

Condition- and context-dependent variation of sexual dimorphism across lizard populations at different spatial scales.

The evolution of sexual dimorphism (SD) is driven by intricate interplays between sexual and natural selection. When it comes to SD variation within populations, however, environmental factors play a major role. Sexually selected traits are expected to be strongly dependent on individual body condition, which is influenced by the local environment that individuals experience. As a consequence, the degree of SD may also depend on resource availability. Here, we investigated the potential drivers of SD expression at two sexually dimorphic morphometric traits, body size (snout vent length) and head shape (head geometric morphometrics), in the Italian wall lizard (Podarcis siculus). We assessed the existence of condition- and context-dependent SD across ten islands of the Aeolian archipelago (southern Italy), at within- and among-population scales. We observed strong geographical variation of SD among islands, and tested three potential SD predictors related to resource availability (individual body condition, ecosystem productivity, temperature). Body condition and ecosystem productivity were the main drivers of body size SD variation, and body condition was also the main driver for head shape SD. Our results highlight that the expression of SD in the Italian wall lizard is both condition- and context-dependent. These results are congruent at within- and among-populations scales highlighting that spatial multi-scale analysis represents a useful approach to understand patterns of SD expression.