Development and validation of a machine learning model for prediction of type 2 diabetes in patients with mental illness.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is approximately twice as common among individuals with mental illness compared with the background population, but may be prevented by early intervention on lifestyle, diet, or pharmacologically. Such prevention relies on identification of those at elevated risk (prediction). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning model for prediction of T2D among patients with mental illness. METHODS: The study was based on routine clinical data from electronic health records from the psychiatric services of the Central Denmark Region. A total of 74,880 patients with 1.59 million psychiatric service contacts were included in the analyses. We created 1343 potential predictors from 51 source variables, covering patient-level information on demographics, diagnoses, pharmacological treatment, and laboratory results. T2D was operationalised as HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol, fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/mol, oral glucose tolerance test ≥11.1 mmol/mol or random plasma glucose ≥11.1 mmol/mol. Two machine learning models (XGBoost and regularised logistic regression) were trained to predict T2D based on 85% of the included contacts. The predictive performance of the best performing model was tested on the remaining 15% of the contacts. RESULTS: The XGBoost model detected patients at high risk 2.7 years before T2D, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Of the 996 patients developing T2D in the test set, the model issued at least one positive prediction for 305 (31%). CONCLUSION: A machine learning model can accurately predict development of T2D among patients with mental illness based on routine clinical data from electronic health records. A decision support system based on such a model may inform measures to prevent development of T2D in this high-risk population.

300 Million years of coral treaders (Insecta: Heteroptera: Hermatobatidae) back to the ocean in the phylogenetic context of Arthropoda.

Among hundreds of insect families, Hermatobatidae (commonly known as coral treaders) is one of the most unique. They are small, wingless predaceous bugs in the suborder Heteroptera. Adults are almost black in colour, measuring about 5 mm in body length and 3 mm in width. Thirteen species are known from tropical coral reefs or rocky shores, but their origin and evolutionary adaptation to their unusual marine habitat were unexplored. We report here the genome and metagenome of Hermatobates lingyangjiaoensis, hitherto known only from its type locality in the South China Sea. We further reconstructed the evolutionary history and origin of these marine bugs in the broader context of Arthropoda. The dated phylogeny indicates that Hexapoda diverged from their marine sister groups approximately 498 Ma and that Hermatobatidae originated 192 Ma, indicating that they returned to an oceanic life some 300 Myr after their ancestors became terrestrial. Their origin is consistent with the recovery of tropical reef ecosystems after the end-Triassic mass extinction, which might have provided new and open niches for them to occupy and thrive. Our analyses also revealed that both the genome changes and the symbiotic bacteria might have contributed to adaptations necessary for life in the sea.

Phylogeny and historical biogeography of the water boatmen (Insecta: Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Nepomorpha: Corixoidea).

The water boatmen of Corixoidea, a group of aquatic bugs with more than 600 extant species, is one of the largest superfamilies of Nepomorpha. Contrary to the other nepomorphan lineages, the Corixoidea are most diverse in the Laurasian remnant Holarctic region. To explicitly test whether the present-day Holarctic distribution of diverse corixids is associated with the arising of the Laurasian landmass that was separated from Gondwana, we investigated the phylogeny, divergence times and historical biogeography of Corixoidea based on morphological and molecular characters sampled from 122 taxa representing all families, subfamilies, tribes and approximately 54 % of the genera. Our results were largely congruent with the phylogenetic relationships within the established nepomorphan phylogenetic context. The fossil calibrated chronogram, diversification analysis and ancestral ranges reconstruction indicated that Corixoidea began to diversify in Gondwana in the late Triassic approximately at 224 Ma and the arising of the most diverse subfamily Corixinae in Corixidae in the Holarctic region was largely congruent with the time of separation of Laurasia from Gondwana. The large-scale expansion of the temperate and cold zones on the northward-moving Laurasian landmass after the breakup of the Pangea provided new aquatic niches and ecological opportunities for promoting rapid diversification for the Holarctic corixid lineage.

Climate Warming Since the Holocene Accelerates West-East Communication for the Eurasian Temperate Water Strider Species Aquarius paludum.

Holocene climate warming has dramatically altered biological diversity and distributions. Recent human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases will exacerbate global warming and thus induce threats to cold-adapted taxa. However, the impacts of this major climate change on transcontinental temperate species are still poorly understood. Here, we generated extensive genomic datasets for a water strider, Aquarius paludum, which was sampled across its entire distribution in Eurasia and used these datasets in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to elucidate the influence of the Holocene and future climate warming on its population structure and demographic history. We found that A. paludum consisted of two phylogeographic lineages that diverged in the middle Pleistocene, which resulted in a "west-east component" genetic pattern that was probably triggered by Central Asia-Mongoxin aridification and Pleistocene glaciations. The diverged western and eastern lineages had a second contact in the Holocene, which shaped a temporary hybrid zone located at the boundary of the arid-semiarid regions of China. Future predictions detected a potentially novel northern corridor to connect the western and eastern populations, indicating west-east gene flow would possibly continue to intensify under future warming climate conditions. Further integrating phylogeographic and ENM analyses of multiple Eurasian temperate taxa based on published studies reinforced our findings on the "west-east component" genetic pattern and the predicted future northern corridor for A. paludum. Our study provided a detailed paradigm from a phylogeographic perspective of how transcontinental temperate species differ from cold-adapted taxa in their response to climate warming.

Water bugs (Hemipera: Heteroptera: Nepomorpha amp; Gerromorpha) of Chile: phylogenetic and biogeographic considerations, and a catalog of the fauna.

The Chilean fauna of water bugs comprises seven species of semi-aquatic bugs (Heteroptera: Gerromorpha), representing five genera, three tribes, four subfamilies and four families; and 27 species and one subspecies of aquatic bugs (Heteroptera: Nepomorpha), representing four subgenera, eight genera, three tribes, seven subfamilies, and five families. We compare the fauna with neighboring countries and find that several otherwise widespread and abundant taxa are missing in Chile, but that Chepuvelia usingeri China, 1963 (Macroveliidae), Microvelia chilena Drake Hussey, 1955 (Veliidae), Limnocoris dubiosus Montandon, 1898 (Naucoridae), Nerthra (Nerthra) parvula (Signoret, 1863), N. (N.) undosa Nieser Chen, 1992, N. (Rhinodermacoris) praecipua Todd, 1957 (Gelastocoridae), and Sigara (Tropocorixa) termasensis (Hungerford, 1928a) (Corixidae) are endemic to the country. To this list, we add †Nerthra (Nerthra) subantarctica Faúndez Ashworth, 2015, even though the species is only known from a subfossil. We can also inform that while water bugs are found in the archipelagoes of southern Chile, no species has been reported from the Juan Fernandez Islands, Easter Island and other off-shore islands. Several of the Chilean species are without any close extant relatives, such as C. usingeri and Aquarius chilensis (Berg, 1881) (Gerridae), or with relatives in Oceania (N. praecipua), suggesting that historical events such as dispersal and extinction have had a major influence on the composition of the Chilean fauna.

Phylogeny and diversification of the true water bugs (Insecta: Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Nepomorpha).

Climate fluctuations and tectonic reconfigurations associated with environmental changes play large roles in determining patterns of adaptation and diversification, but studies documenting how such drivers have shaped the evolutionary history and diversification dynamics of limnic organisms during the Mesozoic are scarce. Members of the heteropteran infraorder Nepomorpha, or aquatic bugs, are ideal for testing the effects of these determinants on their diversification pulses because most species are confined to aquatic environments during their entire life. The group has a relatively mature taxonomy and is well represented in the fossil record. We investigated the evolution of Nepomorpha based on phylogenetic analyses of morphological and molecular characters sampled from 115 taxa representing all 13 families and approximately 40% of recognized genera. Our results were largely congruent with the phylogenetic relationships inferred from morphology. A divergence dating analysis indicated that Nepomorpha began to diversify in the late Permian (approximately 263 Ma), and diversification analyses suggested that palaeoecological opportunities probably promoted lineage diversification in this group.

Phylogeny and historical biogeography of Gondwanan moss-bugs (Insecta: Hemiptera: Coleorrhyncha: Peloridiidae).

The moss bugs of the Peloridiidae, a small group of cryptic and mostly flightless insects, is the only living family in Coleorrhyncha (Insecta: Hemiptera). Today 37 species in 17 genera are known from eastern Australia, New Zealand, New Caledonia and Patagonia, and the peloridiids are thereby a group with a classical southern Gondwanan distribution. To explicitly test whether the present-day distribution of the Peloridiidae actually results from the sequential breakup of southern Gondwana, we provide the first total-evidence phylogenetic study based on morphological and molecular characters sampled from about 75% of recognized species representing 13 genera. The results largely confirm the established morphological phylogenetic context except that South American Peloridium hammoniorum constitutes the sister group to the remaining peloridiids. A timescale analysis indicates that the Peloridiidae began to diversify in the land mass that is today's Patagonia in the late Jurassic (153 Ma, 95% highest posterior density: 78-231 Ma), and that splitting into the three extant well-supported biogeographical clades (i.e. Australia, Patagonia and New Zealand/New Caledonia) is consistent with the sequential breakup of southern Gondwana in the late Cretaceous, indicating that the current transoceanic disjunct distributions of the Peloridiidae are best explained by a Gondwanan vicariance hypothesis.

When did the ancestor of true bugs become stinky? Disentangling the phylogenomics of Hemiptera-Heteroptera.

The phylogeny of true bugs (Hemiptera: Heteroptera), one of the most diverse insect groups in terms of morphology and ecology, has been the focus of attention for decades with respect to several deep nodes between the suborders of Hemiptera and the infraorders of Heteroptera. Here, we assembled a phylogenomic data set of 53 taxa and 3102 orthologous genes to investigate the phylogeny of Hemiptera-Heteroptera, and both concatenation and coalescent methods were used. A binode-control approach for data filtering was introduced to reduce the incongruence between different genes, which can improve the performance of phylogenetic reconstruction. Both hypotheses (Coleorrhyncha + Heteroptera) and (Coleorrhyncha + Auchenorrhyncha) received support from various analyses, in which the former is more consistent with the morphological evidence. Based on a divergence time estimation performed on genes with a strong phylogenetic signal, the origin of true bugs was dated to 290-268 Ma in the Permian, the time in Earth's history with the highest concentration of atmospheric oxygen. During this time interval, at least 1007 apomorphic amino acids were retained in the common ancestor of the extant true bugs. These molecular apomorphies are located in 553 orthologous genes, which suggests the common ancestor of the extant true bugs may have experienced large-scale evolution at the genome level.

Water striders (Heteroptera: Gerromorpha: Gerridae) of Romania with an update on the distribution of Gerris gibbifer and G. maculatus in southeastern Europe.

The Romanian fauna comprises two species of Aquarius Schellenberg, 1800, eight species of Gerris Fabricius, 1794 and one species of Limnoporus Stål, 1868, and we hereby update the distribution and provide insights on the phenology and ecology of all eleven species in this country. We furthermore update the distribution of the two closely related species Gerris gibbifer Schummel, 1832 and G. maculatus Tamanini, 1946 in southeastern Europe. Gerris maculatus is recorded for the first time from Hungary, Montenegro and Slovenia, and the first detailed localities from Romania and Serbia are given. All bibliographic records of G. gibbifer from Romania, Macedonia and Serbia are based on misidentification and this species is thus excluded from the faunal lists of these countries. Both G. gibbifer and G. maculatus occur in Croatia, Hungary, Ukraine, and probably Slovenia.

Phylogeography of a semi-aquatic bug, Microvelia horvathi (Hemiptera: Veliidae): an evaluation of historical, geographical and ecological factors.

Subtropical China is a centre of speciation and well known for its high biological diversity and endemism. To understand the impact of historical, geographical and ecological factors on the intraspecific lineage divergence of invertebrates, we examined these processes in a semiaquatic bug, Microvelia horvathi (Hemiptera: Veliidae). Three hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENM). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial (COI + COII) and nuclear data (ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2). The phylogenic analysis revealed a shallow divergence in mitochondrial data. Clade I was mostly confined to the northern region and clade II was nearly restricted to the southern region. The historical process of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations during the LGM promoted divergence, along with such geographical barriers as the Wuyi, Nanling and Xuefeng mountains and ecological factors of temperature and vegetation type, contributed to these shallow genetic divergences and helped maintain them. The north-south population differentiation probably occurred during the transition from LIG to LGM, with post-LGM population expansion. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM. Our study emphasizes the multiple effects influencing genetic population differentiation, and also contributes to our knowledge of the phylogeography of other aquatic organisms in subtropical China.