RESUMEN
There is a growing emphasis being placed on the potential for cuffless blood pressure (BP) estimation through modelling of morphological features from the photoplethysmogram (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG). However, the appropriate features and models to use remain unclear. We investigated the best features available from the PPG and ECG for BP estimation using both linear and non-linear machine learning models. We conducted a clinical study in which changes in BP ([Formula: see text]BP) were induced by an infusion of phenylephrine in 30 healthy volunteers (53.8% female, 28.0 (9.0) years old). We extracted a large and diverse set of features from both the PPG and the ECG and assessed their individual importance for estimating [Formula: see text]BP through Shapley additive explanation values and a ranking coefficient. We trained, tuned, and evaluated linear (ordinary least squares, OLS) and non-linear (random forest, RF) machine learning models to estimate [Formula: see text]BP in a nested leave-one-subject-out cross-validation framework. We reported the results as correlation coefficient ([Formula: see text]), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The non-linear RF model significantly ([Formula: see text]) outperformed the linear OLS model using both the PPG and the ECG signals across all performance metrics. Estimating [Formula: see text]SBP using the PPG alone ([Formula: see text] = 0.86 (0.23), RMSE = 5.66 (4.76) mmHg, MAE = 4.86 (4.29) mmHg) performed significantly better than using the ECG alone ([Formula: see text] = 0.69 (0.45), RMSE = 6.79 (4.76) mmHg, MAE = 5.28 (4.57) mmHg), all [Formula: see text]. The highest ranking features from the PPG largely modelled increasing reflected wave interference driven by changes in arterial stiffness. This finding was supported by changes observed in the PPG waveform in response to the phenylephrine infusion. However, a large number of features were required for accurate BP estimation, highlighting the high complexity of the problem. We conclude that the PPG alone may be further explored as a potential single source, cuffless, blood pressure estimator. The use of the ECG alone is not justified. Non-linear models may perform better as they are able to incorporate interactions between feature values and demographics. However, demographics may not adequately account for the unique and individualised relationship between the extracted features and BP.
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Determinación de la Presión Sanguínea , Fotopletismografía , Humanos , Femenino , Niño , Masculino , Presión Sanguínea/fisiología , Determinación de la Presión Sanguínea/métodos , Fotopletismografía/métodos , Aprendizaje Automático , ElectrocardiografíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Ambulatory blood-pressure monitoring (ABPM) has become less frequent in primary care since the COVID-19 pandemic, with home blood-pressure monitoring (HBPM) often the preferred alternative; however, HBPM cannot measure night-time blood pressure (BP), and patients whose night-time BP does not dip, or rises (reverse dipping), have poorer cardiovascular outcomes. AIM: To investigate the importance of measuring night-time BP when assessing individuals for hypertension. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective cohort study of two patient populations - namely, hospital patients admitted to four UK acute hospitals located in Oxfordshire, and participants of the BP in different ethnic groups (BP-Eth) study, who were recruited from 28 UK general practices in the West Midlands. METHOD: Using BP data collected for the two cohorts, three systolic BP phenotypes (dipper, non-dipper, and reverse dipper) were studied. RESULTS: Among the hospital cohort, 48.9% (n = 10 610/21 716) patients were 'reverse dippers', with an average day-night systolic BP difference of +8.0 mmHg. Among the community (BP-Eth) cohort, 10.8% (n = 63/585) of patients were reverse dippers, with an average day-night systolic BP difference of +8.5 mmHg. Non-dipper and reverse-dipper phenotypes both had lower daytime systolic BP and higher night-time systolic BP than the dipper phenotype. Average daytime systolic BP was lowest in the reverse-dipping phenotype (this was 6.5 mmHg and 6.8 mmHg lower than for the dipper phenotype in the hospital and community cohorts, respectively), thereby placing them at risk of undiagnosed, or masked, hypertension. CONCLUSION: Not measuring night-time BP puts all groups, other than dippers, at risk of failure to identify hypertension. As a result of this study, it is recommended that GPs should offer ABPM to all patients aged ≥60 years as a minimum when assessing for hypertension.
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COVID-19 , Hipertensión , Humanos , Presión Sanguínea/fisiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Pandemias , Ritmo Circadiano/fisiología , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Hipertensión/diagnóstico , Monitoreo Ambulatorio de la Presión Arterial , Atención Primaria de SaludRESUMEN
Hypertension is a major global cause of morbidity and mortality. Home Blood Pressure Monitoring (HBPM) has the potential to help diagnose patients experiencing isolated nocturnal hypertension who may otherwise be missed. This paper investigates potential diagnostic thresholds for diagnosing isolated nocturnal hypertension using dawn and dusk HBPM measurements in the BP-Eth ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) database. Depending on whether European or American diagnostic guidelines for hypertension were used, incidence of isolated nocturnal hypertension in the BP-Eth database was 17.1% or 16.8%, respectively. Using averaged dawn and dusk HBPM measurements to diagnose isolated nocturnal hypertension yielded an AUROC of 0.79 (European guidelines) or 0.84 (American guidelines). The SBP and DBP diagnostic thresholds required to detect 80% of cases of isolated nocturnal hypertension were found to be 125.4 mmHg and 75.7 mmHg, respectively (European guidelines) or 117.6 mmHg and 74.3 mmHg, respectively (American guidelines). These thresholds corresponded to a sensitivity of 80% and specificity of 63% (European guidelines) or sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 65% (American guidelines). These results demonstrate the potential for HBPM to function as an intermediate step in screening patients, determining which patients require more intensive ABPM monitoring for detection of isolated nocturnal hypertension. Clinical Relevance - This study investigates the incidence of isolated nocturnal hypertension, and the possibility of using home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM) to screen for it. Isolated nocturnal hypertension is otherwise only detectable using more expensive and burdensome ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM).
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Monitoreo Ambulatorio de la Presión Arterial , Hipertensión , Monitoreo Ambulatorio de la Presión Arterial/métodos , Humanos , Hipertensión/diagnósticoRESUMEN
Circadian rhythms in blood pressure (BP) may in some cases be indicative of an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events. However, current methods for assessing these rhythms can be disruptive to sleep, work, and daily activities. Features of the photoplethysmogram (PPG), which can be non-invasively and unobtrusively recorded, have been suggested as surrogate measures of BP. This work investigates the presence of a circadian rhythm in these features and evaluates their potential to classify nocturnal BP patterns. 742 patients who were discharged home from the ICU were selected from the MIMIC-III database. Our results show that a number of PPG features exhibit a clear and observable circadian rhythm. Of the 19 features evaluated, the circadian rhythms of 5 features outperformed heart rate (HR) in terms of correlation with the circadian rhythm of SBP ( ). We also present evidence that a metric combining the PPG features significantly improves BP phenotype classification accuracy. Clinical Relevance-This work suggests that a combined metric of PPG features may be able to accurately assess an individual's circadian rhythm of BP.
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Ritmo Circadiano , Fotopletismografía , Presión Sanguínea/fisiología , Ritmo Circadiano/fisiología , Frecuencia Cardíaca , Sueño/fisiologíaRESUMEN
Circadian rhythms of blood pressure (BP) have key diagnostic significance in the assessment of hypertension. The night-time dip or rise in BP (10-20% decrease or increase compared to daytime BP), for example, has been shown to be a strong indicator for cardiovascular disease. However, current methods for assessing the circadian rhythms of BP can be disruptive to sleep, work, and daily activities. Pulse arrival time (PAT) has been suggested as a surrogate measure of BP. This work investigates the presence of a circadian rhythm in PAT and evaluates its application to classify nocturnal BP dip or rise. 769 patients who were discharged home from the ICU were selected from the MIMIC database. Our results show a clear and observable circadian rhythm of PAT that is strongly inversely correlated with BP (r = -0.89). The ratios between nocturnal and diurnal changes in PAT accurately classifies an individual as a nocturnal BP dipper (AUC = 0.72) or a riser (AUC = 0.71).Clinical Relevance-This work shows that you can accurately assess an individuals's circadian rhythm of BP using PAT.
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Ritmo Circadiano , Hipertensión , Presión Sanguínea , Monitoreo Ambulatorio de la Presión Arterial , Frecuencia Cardíaca , Humanos , Hipertensión/diagnósticoRESUMEN
Various models have been proposed for the estimation of blood pressure (BP) from pulse transit time (PTT). PTT is defined as the time delay of the pressure wave, produced by left ventricular contraction, measured between a proximal and a distal site along the arterial tree. Most researchers, when they measure the time difference between the peak of the R-wave in the electrocardiogram signal (corresponding to left ventricular depolarisation) and a fiducial point in the photoplethysmogram waveform (as measured by a pulse oximeter attached to the fingertip), describe this erroneously as the PTT. In fact, this is the pulse arrival time (PAT), which includes not only PTT, but also the time delay between the electrical depolarisation of the heart's left ventricle and the opening of the aortic valve, known as pre-ejection period (PEP). PEP has been suggested to present a significant limitation to BP estimation using PAT. This work investigates the impact of PEP on PAT, leading to a discussion on the best models for BP estimation using PAT or PTT. We conducted a clinical study involving 30 healthy volunteers (53.3% female, 30.9 ± 9.35 years old, with a body mass index of 22.7 ± 3.2 kg/m[Formula: see text]). Each session lasted on average 27.9 ± 0.6 min and BP was varied by an infusion of phenylephrine (a medication that causes venous and arterial vasoconstriction). We introduced new processing steps for the analysis of PAT and PEP signals. Various population-based models (Poon, Gesche and Fung) and a posteriori models (inverse linear, inverse squared and logarithm) for estimation of BP from PTT or PAT were evaluated. Across the cohort, PEP was found to increase by 5.5 ms ± 4.5 ms from its baseline value. Variations in PTT were significantly larger in amplitude, - 16.8 ms ± 7.5 ms. We suggest, therefore, that for infusions of phenylephrine, the contribution of PEP on PAT can be neglected. All population-based models produced large BP estimation errors, suggesting that they are insufficient for modelling the complex pathways relating changes in PTT or PAT to changes in BP. Although PAT is inversely correlated with systolic blood pressure (SBP), the gradient of this relationship varies significantly from individual to individual, from - 2946 to - 470.64 mmHg/s in our dataset. For the a posteriori inverse squared model, the root mean squared errors (RMSE) for systolic and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) estimation from PAT were 5.49 mmHg and 3.82 mmHg, respectively. The RMSEs for SBP and DBP estimation by PTT were 4.51 mmHg and 3.53 mmHg, respectively. These models take into account individual calibration curves required for accurate blood pressure estimation. The best performing population-based model (Poon) reported error values around double that of the a posteriori inverse squared model, and so the use of population-based models is not justified.
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Presión Sanguínea , Fenómenos Fisiológicos Cardiovasculares , Frecuencia Cardíaca , Monitoreo Fisiológico/métodos , Análisis de la Onda del Pulso/métodos , Pulso Arterial , Adulto , Determinación de la Presión Sanguínea , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Signos VitalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Determining physiological mechanisms leading to circulatory failure can be challenging, contributing to the difficulties in delivering effective hemodynamic management in critical care. Continuous, non-additionally invasive monitoring of preload changes, and assessment of contractility from Frank-Starling curves could potentially make it much easier to diagnose and manage circulatory failure. METHOD: This study combines non-additionally invasive model-based methods to estimate left ventricle end-diastolic volume (LEDV) and stroke volume (SV) during hemodynamic interventions in a pig trial (N = 6). Agreement of model-based LEDV and measured admittance catheter LEDV is assessed. Model-based LEDV and SV are used to identify response to hemodynamic interventions and create Frank-Starling curves, from which Frank-Starling contractility (FSC) is identified as the gradient. RESULTS: Model-based LEDV had good agreement with measured admittance catheter LEDV, with Bland-Altman median bias [limits of agreement (2.5th, 97.5th percentile)] of 2.2 ml [-13.8, 22.5]. Model LEDV and SV were used to identify non-responsive interventions with a good area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.83. FSC was identified using model LEDV and SV with Bland-Altman median bias [limits of agreement (2.5th, 97.5th percentile)] of 0.07 [-0.68, 0.56], with FSC from admittance catheter LEDV and aortic flow probe SV used as a reference method. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides proof-of-concept preload changes and Frank-Starling curves could be non-additionally invasively estimated for critically ill patients, which could potentially enable much clearer insight into cardiovascular function than is currently possible at the patient bedside.
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Hemodinámica , Animales , Humanos , Volumen Sistólico , PorcinosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Disrupted vital-sign circadian rhythms in the intensive care unit (ICU) are associated with complications such as immune system disruption, delirium and increased patient mortality. However, the prevalence and extent of this disruption is not well understood. Tools for its detection are currently limited. METHODS: This paper evaluated and compared vital-sign circadian rhythms in systolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate and temperature. Comparisons were made between the cohort of patients who recovered from the ICU and those who did not, across three large, publicly available clinical databases. This comparison included a qualitative assessment of rhythm profiles, as well as quantitative metrics such as peak-nadir excursions and correlation to a demographically matched 'recovered' profile. RESULTS: Circadian rhythms were present at the cohort level in all vital signs throughout an ICU stay. Peak-nadir excursions and correlation to a 'recovered' profile were typically greater throughout an ICU stay in the cohort of patients who recovered, compared to the cohort of patients who did not. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that vital-sign circadian rhythms are typically present at the cohort level throughout an ICU stay and that quantitative assessment of these rhythms may provide information of prognostic use in the ICU.
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Ritmo Circadiano/fisiología , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Signos Vitales , Adulto , Anciano , Presión Sanguínea/fisiología , Femenino , Frecuencia Cardíaca/fisiología , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/organización & administración , Masculino , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To estimate normal ranges for postpartum maternal vital signs. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter prospective longitudinal cohort study in the United Kingdom. We recruited women before 20 weeks of gestation without significant comorbidities and with accurately dated singleton pregnancies. Women recorded their own blood pressure, heart rate, oxygen saturation and temperature daily for 2 weeks postpartum. Trained midwives measured participants' vital signs including respiratory rate around postpartum days 1, 7, and 14. RESULTS: From August 2012 to September 2016, we screened 4,279 pregnant women; 1,054 met eligibility criteria and chose to take part. Postpartum vital sign data were available for 909 women (86.2%). Median, or 50th centile (3rd-97th centile), systolic and diastolic blood pressures increased from the day of birth: 116 mm Hg (88-147) and 74 mm Hg (59-93) to a maximum median of 121 mm Hg (102-143) and 79 mm Hg (63-94) on days 5 and 6 postpartum, respectively, an increase of 5 mm Hg (95% CI 3-7) and 5 mm Hg (95% CI 4-6), respectively. Median (3rd-97th centile) systolic and diastolic blood pressure returned to 116 mm Hg (98-137) and 75 mm Hg (61-91) by day 14 postpartum. The median (3rd-97th centile) heart rate was highest on the day of birth, 84 beats per minute (bpm) (59-110) decreasing to a minimum of 75 bpm (55-101) 14 days postpartum. Oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, and temperature did not change in the 2 weeks postbirth. Median (3rd-97th centile) day-of-birth oxygen saturation was 96% (93-98). Median (3rd-97th centile) day-of-birth respiratory rate was 15 breaths per minute (10-22). Median (3rd-97th centile) day-of-birth temperature was 36.7°C (35.6-37.6). CONCLUSION: We present widely relevant, postpartum, day-specific reference ranges which may facilitate early detection of abnormal blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and temperature during the puerperium. Our findings could inform construction of an evidence-based modified obstetric early warning system to better identify unwell postpartum women. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, 10838017.
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Periodo Posparto/fisiología , Signos Vitales , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Valores de ReferenciaRESUMEN
Skin temperature has long been used as a natural indicator of vascular diseases in the extremities. Considerable correlation between oscillations in skin surface temperature and oscillations of skin blood flow has previously been demonstrated. We hypothesised that the impairment of blood flow in stenotic (subcutaneous) peripheral arteries would influence cutaneous temperature such that, by measuring gradients in the temperature distribution over skin surfaces, one may be able to diagnose or quantify the progression of vascular conditions in whose pathogenesis a reduction in subcutaneous blood perfusion plays a critical role (e.g. peripheral artery disease). As proof of principle, this study investigates the local changes in the skin temperature of healthy humans (15 male, [Formula: see text] years old, BMI [Formula: see text] kg/m 2) undergoing two physical challenges designed to vary their haemodynamic status. Skin temperature was measured in four central regions (forehead, neck, chest, and left shoulder) and four peripheral regions (left upper arm, forearm, wrist, and hand) using an infrared thermal camera. We compare inter-region patterns. Median temperature over the peripheral regions decreased from baseline after both challenges (maximum decrease: [Formula: see text] °C at 60 s after exercise; [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] °C at 180 s of cold-water immersion; [Formula: see text]). Median temperature over the central regions showed no significant changes. Our results show that the non-contact measurement of perfusion-related changes in peripheral temperature from infrared video data is feasible. Further research will be directed towards the thermographic study of patients with symptomatic peripheral vascular disease.
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Temperatura Cutánea , Termografía , Arterias , Ejercicio Físico , Hemodinámica , Humanos , MasculinoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Skin perfusion varies in response to changes in the circulatory status. Blood flow to skin is reduced during haemodynamic collapse secondary to peripheral vasoconstriction, whereas increased skin perfusion is frequently observed when haemodynamics improve with resuscitation. These changes in perfusion may be monitored using non-contact image-based methods. Previous camera-derived physiological measurements have focused on accurate vital signs monitoring and extraction of physiological signals from environmental noise. One of the biggest challenges of camera-derived monitoring is artefacts from motion, which limits our understanding of what parameters may be derived from skin. In this study, we use phenylephrine and glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) to cause vasoconstriction and vasodilation in stationary healthy volunteers to describe directional changes in skin perfusion pattern. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We aim to recruit 30 healthy volunteers who will undergo protocolised infusions of phenylephrine and GTN, followed by the monitored and timed release of a thigh tourniquet. The experimental timeline will be identical for all participants. Measurements of traditionally used haemodynamic markers (heart rate, blood pressure and stroke volume) and camera-derived measurements will be taken concurrently throughout the experimental period. The parameters of interest from the image data are skin colour and pattern, skin surface temperature, pulsatile signal detected at the skin surface and skin perfusion index. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was reviewed and approved by the Oxford University Research and Ethics Committee and Clinical Trials and Research Governance teams (R63796/RE001). The results of this study will be presented at scientific conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN10417167.
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Voluntarios Sanos , Extremidad Inferior/irrigación sanguínea , Monitoreo Fisiológico/métodos , Piel/irrigación sanguínea , Grabación en Video , Adolescente , Adulto , Artefactos , Estudios de Factibilidad , Femenino , Hemodinámica , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Nitroglicerina , Fenilefrina , Proyectos de InvestigaciónAsunto(s)
Ritmo Circadiano/fisiología , Alta del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Signos Vitales/fisiología , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/organización & administración , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
Total stressed blood volume ([Formula: see text]) and arterial elastance ([Formula: see text]) are two potentially important, clinically applicable metrics for guiding treatment in patients with altered hemodynamic states. Defined as the total pressure generating blood in the circulation, [Formula: see text] is a potential direct measurement of tissue perfusion, a critical component in treatment of sepsis. [Formula: see text] is closely related to arterial tone thus provides insight into cardiac efficiency. However, it is not clinically feasible or ethical to measure [Formula: see text] in patients, so a three chambered cardiovascular system model using measured left ventricle pressure and volume, aortic pressure and central venous pressure is implemented to identify [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] from clinical data. [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are identified from clinical data from six (6) pigs, who have undergone clinical procedures aimed at simulating septic shock and subsequent treatment, to identify clinically relevant changes. A novel, validated trend analysis method is used to adjudge clinically significant changes in state in the real-time [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] traces. Results matched hypothesised increases in [Formula: see text] during fluid therapy, with a mean change of + 21% during initial therapy, and hypothesised decreases during endotoxin induced sepsis, with a mean change of - 29%. [Formula: see text] displayed the hypothesised reciprocal behaviour with a mean changes of - 12 and + 30% during initial therapy and endotoxin induced sepsis, respectively. The overall results validate the efficacy of [Formula: see text] in tracking changes in hemodynamic state in septic shock and fluid therapy.
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Presión Sanguínea , Modelos Cardiovasculares , Modelación Específica para el Paciente , Sepsis/fisiopatología , Animales , Modelos Animales de Enfermedad , Prueba de Estudio Conceptual , PorcinosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular dysfunction can be more effectively monitored and treated, with accurate, continuous, stroke volume (SV) and/or cardiac output (CO) measurements. Since direct measurements of SV/CO are highly invasive, clinical measures are often discrete, or if continuous, can require recalibration with a discrete SV measurement after hemodynamic instability. This study presents a clinically applicable, non-additionally invasive, physiological model-based, SV and CO measurement method, which does not require recalibration during or after hemodynamic instability. METHODS AND RESULTS: The model's ability to predict flow profiles and SV is assessed in an animal trial, using endotoxin to induce sepsis in 5 pigs. Mean percentage error between beat-to-beat SV measured from an aortic flow probe and estimated by the model was -2%, while 90% of estimations fell within -24.2% and +27.9% error. Error between estimated and measured changes in mean SV following interventions was less than 30% for 4 out of the 5 pigs. Correlations between model estimated and probe measured flow, for each pig and hemodynamic interventions, was r2 = 0.58 - 0.96, with 21 of the 25 pig intervention stages having r2 â¯>⯠0.80. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate the model accurately estimates and tracks changes in flow profiles and resulting SV, without requiring model recalibration.
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Modelos Biológicos , Volumen Sistólico/fisiología , Animales , Aorta/fisiología , Gasto Cardíaco/fisiología , Humanos , Porcinos , SístoleRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The challenges of glycaemic control in critically ill patients have been debated for 20 years. While glycaemic control shows benefits inter- and intra-patient metabolic variability results in increased hypoglycaemia and glycaemic variability, both increasing morbidity and mortality. Hence, current recommendations for glycaemic control target higher glycaemic ranges, guided by the fear of harm. Lately, studies have proven the ability to provide safe, effective control for lower, normoglycaemic, ranges, using model-based computerised methods. Such methods usually identify patient-specific physiological parameters to personalize titration of insulin and/or nutrition. The Stochastic-Targeted (STAR) glycaemic control framework uses patient-specific insulin sensitivity and a stochastic model of its future variability to directly account for both inter- and intra-patient variability in a risk-based insulin-dosing approach. RESULTS: In this study, a more personalized and specific 3D version of the stochastic model used in STAR is compared to the current 2D stochastic model, both built using kernel-density estimation methods. Fivefold cross validation on 681 retrospective patient glycaemic control episodes, totalling over 65,000 h of control, is used to determine whether the 3D model better captures metabolic variability, and the potential gain in glycaemic outcome is assessed using validated virtual trials. Results show that the 3D stochastic model has similar forward predictive power, but provides significantly tighter, more patient-specific, prediction ranges, showing the 2D model over-conservative > 70% of the time. Virtual trial results show that overall glycaemic safety and performance are similar, but the 3D stochastic model reduced median blood glucose levels (6.3 [5.7, 7.0] vs. 6.2 [5.6, 6.9]) with a higher 61% vs. 56% of blood glucose within the 4.4-6.5 mmol/L range. CONCLUSIONS: This improved performance is achieved with higher insulin rates and higher carbohydrate intake, but no loss in safety from hypoglycaemia. Thus, the 3D stochastic model developed better characterises patient-specific future insulin sensitivity dynamics, resulting in improved simulated glycaemic outcomes and a greater level of personalization in control. The results justify inclusion into ongoing clinical use of STAR.
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Glucemia/metabolismo , Simulación por Computador , Modelos Estadísticos , Medicina de Precisión/métodos , Enfermedad Crítica , Humanos , Análisis Multivariante , Estudios Retrospectivos , Procesos EstocásticosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Glycaemic control in the intensive care unit is dependent on effective prediction of patient insulin sensitivity (SI). The stochastic targeted (STAR) controller uses a 2D stochastic model for prediction, with current SI as an input and future SI as an output. METHODS: This paper develops an extension of the STAR 2D stochastic model into 3D by adding blood glucose (G) as an input. The performance of the 2D and 3D stochastic models is compared over a retrospective cohort of 65,269 data points across 1525 patients. RESULTS: Under five-fold cross-validation, the 3D model was found to better match the expected potion of data points within, above and below various credible intervals, suggesting it provided a better representation of the underlying probability field. The 3D model was also found to provide an 18.1% narrower 90% credible interval on average, and a narrower 90% credible interval in 96.4% of cases, suggesting it provided more accurate predictions of future SI. Additionally, the 3D stochastic model was found to avoid the undesirable tendency of the 2D model to overestimate SI for patients with high G, and underestimate SI for patients with low G. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the 3D stochastic model is shown to provide clear potential benefits over the 2D model for minimal clinical cost or effort, though further exploration into whether these improvements in SI prediction translate into improved clinical outcomes is required.
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Glucemia/análisis , Resistencia a la Insulina , Procesos Estocásticos , Estudios de Cohortes , HumanosRESUMEN
Sepsis can cause major complications in the cardiovascular system. Accurate monitoring of model-based bio-markers, such as total stressed blood volume, SBVT , have been shown to be important parameters in determining the effectiveness of fluid therapy in sepsis patients. Another such parameter is arterial elastance, Ea, which is a measure of the relative stiffness of arteries. This work investigates the effect of fluid therapy and induced sepsis on these parameters through a state average analysis and comparison to previously defined clinical references. A three chambered lumped cardiovascular system model was implemented to develop model based analogues of the two parameters in six porcine subjects. A mean state average increase of 20.9% in SBVT was found in response to fluid therapy, while a mean state average decrease of 32.7% occurred, in surviving subjects, after sepsis was induced. Ea showed a mean state average drop of 12.2% during fluid therapy and an increase of 45% after sepsis is induced. Both results match hypothesised expectations.
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Arterias/fisiología , Volumen Sanguíneo , Modelos Cardiovasculares , Sepsis/fisiopatología , Resistencia Vascular , Animales , Presión Sanguínea , Elasticidad , Fluidoterapia , PorcinosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This paper proposes a methodology for helping bridge the gap between the complex waveform information frequently available in an intensive care unit and the simple, lumped values favoured for rapid clinical diagnosis and management. This methodology employs a simple waveform contour analysis approach to compare aortic, femoral and central venous pressure waveforms on a beat-by-beat basis and extract lumped metrics pertaining to the pressure drop and pressure-pulse amplitude attenuation as blood passes through the various sections of systemic circulation. RESULTS: Validation encompasses a comparison between novel metrics and well-known, analogous clinical metrics such as mean arterial and venous pressures, across an animal model of induced sepsis. The novel metric Ofe â vc, the direct pressure offset between the femoral artery and vena cava, and the clinical metric, ΔMP, the difference between mean arterial and venous pressure, performed well. However, Ofe â vc reduced the optimal average time to sepsis detection after endotoxin infusion from 46.2 min for ΔMP to 11.6 min, for a slight increase in false positive rate from 1.8 to 6.2%. Thus, the novel Ofe â vc provided the best combination of specificity and sensitivity, assuming an equal weighting to both, of the metrics assessed. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the potential of these novel metrics in the detection of diagnostic shifts in physiological behaviour, here driven by sepsis, is demonstrated.
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Presión Sanguínea/fisiología , Monitoreo Fisiológico/instrumentación , Sepsis/diagnóstico , Sepsis/fisiopatología , Animales , Aorta/patología , Presión Arterial , Sistemas de Computación , Endotoxinas/química , Escherichia coli , Arteria Femoral/fisiopatología , Fémur/patología , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos , Masculino , Monitoreo Fisiológico/métodos , Oxígeno , Presión , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Porcinos , Resistencia Vascular , Vena Cava Superior/fisiopatologíaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Pulse wave velocity measurements are an indicator of arterial stiffness and possible cardiovascular dysfunction. It is usually calculated by measuring the pulse transit time (PTT) over a known distance through the arteries. In animal studies, reliable PTT measures can be obtained using two pressure catheters. However, such direct, invasive methods are undesirable in clinical settings. A less invasive alternative measure of PTT is pulse arrival time (PAT), the time between the Q-wave of an electrocardiogram (ECG) and the arrival of the foot of the beats pressure waveform at one pressure catheter. Since the Q-wave signifies the start of ventricular contraction, PAT includes the pre-ejection period (PEP), a time where no blood is ejected. Thus, inter- or intra- subject variation in PEP could result in poor correlation between pulse arrival time (PAT) and the desired pulse transit time (PTT). APPROACH: This study looks at the relationship between PAT and PTT, over a range of common critical care therapies and determines the effect of PEP on PAT as a possible surrogate of PTT in a critical care environment. The analysis uses data from five porcine experiments, where ECG, aortic arch and abdominal aortic pressure were measured simultaneously, over a range of induced hemodynamic conditions. RESULTS: The resulting correlations of PAT verse PTT varied within pigs and across interventions (r 2 = 0.32-0.69), and across pigs (r 2 = 0.05-0.60). Variability was due to three main causes. First, the interventions themselves effect PEP and PTT differently, second, pig specific response to the interventions, and third, inter- and intra- pig variability in PEP, independent of PTT. SIGNIFICANCE: The overall analysis shows PAT is an unreliable measure of PTT and a poor surrogate under clinical interventions common in a critical care setting, due to intra- and inter- subject variability in PEP.