RESUMEN
A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9-22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.
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Desastres , Erupciones VolcánicasRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The amniotic band disruption complex (ABDC) has been segregated recently into various phenotypes. In view of the pathogenic mechanisms that have been proposed, this study was designed to assess if it is one variable process or is composed of several distinct complexes. METHODS: The 48 cases of fetuses with bands or placenta attached to fetal parts cited in this paper included nine new cases and 39 from the literature. They were organized first according to the embryonal topography of the malformations, then according to the position of the adhesions, and finally by the assessment of distances between the cases and between the malformations using the squared Euclidean distances for binary variables and cluster analysis. RESULTS: In all three analyses, three groups were identified: 1) fetuses with cephalo-thoracic anomalies; 2) fetuses with caudal anomalies, and 3) fetuses with mixed anomalies. Nonetheless, overlap among the three groups was apparent. Thus, while fetuses with amniotic bands form three clusters, it appears that these are part of a spectrum and should be considered as variable manifestations of a single entity resulting from a single pathogenetic mechanism. An association was established between the localization of the adhesions and the malformations in various axes. Abdominoschisis, however, was not particularly related to adhesions at one or the other end of the fetus; a short umbilical cord was an almost universal finding. Single umbilical artery (SUA) was especially related to caudal adhesions and malformations (p = 0.004 and 0.001), as well as abdominoschisis (p = 0.002) and agenesis of the abdominal organs (p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The association between amniotic adhesions to the fetus and multiple malformations occurring predominantly in the same area suggest that the former are the cause of the latter. The association of abdominoschisis, as well as a short umbilical cord, with malformations and adhesions in all areas, suggests that these are secondary phenomena to generalized embryonal and fetal tension. SUA, however, with a specifically regional association, is more likely to be due to disruption from exposure in cases with abdominoschisis, often accompanying the loss of abdominal organs.
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Feto/anomalías , Placenta/anatomía & histología , Adherencias Tisulares , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , MasculinoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The objective of the study was to investigate the possibility of the effect of seasonal temperature on the incidence of lethal congenital malformations in a retrospective study. METHODS: At the National Institute of Perinatology in Mexico City, perinatal deaths due to congenital malformations were compared with the the remainder of perinatal deaths over a period of 3 years in relation to the average temperature of the months in which the fifth week of gestation occurred. RESULTS: The division between the average temperature of the individual months was 18 degrees C, as there were no months with an average between 17.9 and 18.8 degrees C. An average of 0.86 perinatal deaths with lethal malformations had spent their embryonic life in a cold month, whereas an average of 1.54 had spent their embryonic life in a hot month; in contrast, an average of 10.24 perinatal deaths with lethal malformations had spent their embryonic life in a cold month, and a smaller number (9.23) in a hot month. CONCLUSIONS: The perinatal deaths with lethal malformations therefore showed a significant tendency to have spent their embryonic lives during the hotter months in comparison with the other perinatal fetal deaths (p = 0.04). Further studies should be made with larger numbers of cases, maintaining careful attention to early perinatal data and local temperatures.
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Anomalías Congénitas/etiología , Estaciones del Año , Temperatura , Frío , Anomalías Congénitas/mortalidad , Femenino , Calor , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Masculino , México/epidemiología , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
Soil samples were collected from both the surface and at depth from the lowlands around Lake Valencia and from the adjacent mountains. This paper reports results for Al, Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb and Zn in mechanical fractions of the soils. Lowland soils, developed on lacustrine sediments, show a predominance of medium- to fine-grain size fractions whereas the shallow mountain soils show the highest percentage of particles in the coarse to medium fractions. Concentrations of most of the elements investigated increased toward finer particle sizes. The generally higher metal concentrations in lowland soils compared with mountain soils are consistent with release by weathering in the uplands and accumulation in the lowlands. The presence of carbonates derived from ubiquitous shelly material in the lowland soils may explain increases of Ca and Mg in labile fractions. In the lowland area, there is little evidence for the translocation of metals in the soil profiles, despite the high rainfall of a tropical climate, and the calcareous nature of these soils could account for the immobility of metals.
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Thirty-five placentas of small-for-dates infants were compared with control placentas of normally grown infants. They were small by weight, area, and volume and tended to have a marginal cord insertion; marginal cord insertion was associated with a thick cord, and central insertion, with a thin cord. When the two groups were compared, the first showed increased fibrinoid deposits and atherosis, more severe fetal abnormalities, and abnormal nutrition in the mother, together with a high incidence of preeclampsia. In the mothers of both groups, peak diastolic blood pressure was lower than that in the control group; additional factors leading to a probable reduction in placental blood flow were different in the two groups.
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Recién Nacido Pequeño para la Edad Gestacional , Placenta/patología , Femenino , Sufrimiento Fetal/patología , Retardo del Crecimiento Fetal/patología , Humanos , Hipertensión/patología , Recién Nacido , México , Fenómenos Fisiológicos de la Nutrición , Preeclampsia/patología , Embarazo , Complicaciones Cardiovasculares del Embarazo/patología , Estudios Retrospectivos , Cordón Umbilical/patologíaAsunto(s)
Antropometría , Mano/anatomía & histología , Etnicidad , Europa (Continente) , Femenino , Humanos , India , Indias OccidentalesRESUMEN
An anthropometric study of female workers' hand dimensions was carried out using 92 subjects. Three ethnic groups, Western Europeans, Indians and West Indians were identified and compared. There were no significant differences between West Indian and Indian and West Indian and European groups. Fifty-one West Europeans, 21 Indians (from the Punjab) and 20 West Indians were included in the study. (AU)