Improving awareness and uptake of pre-exposure HIV prophylaxis amongst service users accessing Sexual Health London, a regional online postal sexually transmitted infection testing health service.

BACKGROUND: The UK pledged commitment to the global strategy of zero new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths by 2030. PrEP was commissioned in England in 2020 and is fundamental to achieving these targets, yet awareness and uptake are suboptimal in certain populations. METHOD: Sexual Health London (SHL) incorporated questions on its e-triage questionnaire estimating need for PrEP amongst online service users. Two types of signposting messaging were shown to users directing them to more detailed online content: PrEP-discussion (potential need) and PrEP-eligible (assumed need). The effectiveness of this signposting was evaluated by reviewing demographics and triage responses in returning users. RESULTS: 426,149 SHL users requested STI screening between 1.7.21-31.10.22. 16% (69,867/426,149) and 32.2% (137,489/426,149) of individuals received PrEP-eligible and PrEP-discussion signposting. The PrEP-eligible cohort were: 41.0% gay/bisexual or other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), 16.3% heterosexual males, 33.1% heterosexual females, and 60.6% were of white ethnicity. The PrEP-discussion cohort were: 9.3% GBMSM, 34.3%% heterosexual males, 45.5% heterosexual females and 63.7% of white ethnicity. 50.4% (35,190/69,867) and 41.3% (56,808/137,489) of the PrEP-eligible and PrEP discussion cohorts ordered a subsequent SHL STI testing kit, during which 10.0% (3510/35,190) and 5.9% (3364/56,808) reported taking PrEP. Of those who denied taking PrEP, 59% (18,702/31,680) and 61.0% (32,559/53,444) triggered PrEP signposting again. 95.4% of PrEP starters were GBMSM (6562/6874) and 1.4% (97/6874) heterosexual males/females. CONCLUSION: The e-service demonstrated feasibility in estimating PrEP need and signposting service users. Up to 16% of returning users subsequently commenced PrEP. This highlights significant missed opportunities for the remaining online users, who continue to report HIV acquisition risk(s). Further efforts regionally/nationally to optimise uptake of PrEP, particularly among under-represented groups are warranted.

Hepatitis B and hepatitis C testing outcomes among service users of Sexual Health London: an online sexually transmitted infection testing service for London residents.

OBJECTIVES: The UK signed up to the 2016 global health strategy to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health problem. Effective monitoring of hepatitis testing outcomes is required to track progress against targets. National reporting does not include hepatitis B and hepatitis C infections (HBV/HCV) detected by online sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing services (e-services). We identify HBV/HCV infection rates among individuals using Sexual Health London (SHL), a large e-service. METHODS: SHL e-records of individuals receiving reactive HBsAg and/or HepCAb screening results between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2022 were reviewed. Only at-risk groups are offered HBV/HCV testing, with risks captured via an online triage/consultation. Roche Cobas e801 HBV/HCV screening assay uses a cut-off index of reactivity (COI) to categorise results: low reactive (COI >1-9) and reactive (COI ≥10). SHL refers individuals with any reactive result for confirmatory testing (CT) at a sexual health clinic that provides hepatitis outpatient management. Clinic staff performing the CT access the shared SHL e-record and electronically take over the patient's care. RESULTS: 67, 718 HBV and 61 064 HCV tests were performed, representing 16% of all kit returns. HBV reactivity was 1.4% (922/67 718): 474 low-reactive, 302 reactive and 146 unconfirmed-reactive. HCV reactivity was 0.3% (163/61 064): 53 low-reactive, 99 reactive and 11 unconfirmed-reactive.Among individuals with reactive (COI ≥10) screening HBV results, 85% results confirmed, 12% negative and 3% unknown. For HCV, 79% results confirmed, 13% negative and 8% unknown. 57 out of 57 new HBV/HCV infections were electronically transferred. HBV prevalence was 299/67 718 (0.4%). The rate of previously undiagnosed cases detected was 40 out of 67 338 (0.06%) for HBV and 17 out of 61 016 (0.03%) for HCV. CONCLUSIONS: 16% of SHL service users received targeted testing for hepatitis in 2021. Testing volumes significantly exceeded and new HBV/HCV diagnosis rates were similar to those reported by sentinel laboratory surveillance. 100% new infections transitioned to care, demonstrating effective integration between online and local sexual health services.

Time to establish an international vaccine candidate pool for potential highly infectious respiratory disease: a community's view.

In counteracting highly infectious and disruptive respiratory diseases such as COVID-19, vaccination remains the primary and safest way to prevent disease, reduce the severity of illness, and save lives. Unfortunately, vaccination is often not the first intervention deployed for a new pandemic, as it takes time to develop and test vaccines, and confirmation of safety requires a period of observation after vaccination to detect potential late-onset vaccine-associated adverse events. In the meantime, nonpharmacologic public health interventions such as mask-wearing and social distancing can provide some degree of protection. As climate change, with its environmental impacts on pathogen evolution and international mobility continue to rise, highly infectious respiratory diseases will likely emerge more frequently and their impact is expected to be substantial. How quickly a safe and efficacious vaccine can be deployed against rising infectious respiratory diseases may be the most important challenge that humanity will face in the near future. While some organizations are engaged in addressing the World Health Organization's "blueprint for priority diseases", the lack of worldwide preparedness, and the uncertainty around universal vaccine availability, remain major concerns. We therefore propose the establishment of an international candidate vaccine pool repository for potential respiratory diseases, supported by multiple stakeholders and countries that contribute facilities, technologies, and other medical and financial resources. The types and categories of candidate vaccines can be determined based on information from previous pandemics and epidemics. Each participant country or region can focus on developing one or a few vaccine types or categories, together covering most if not all possible potential infectious diseases. The safety of these vaccines can be tested using animal models. Information for effective candidates that can be potentially applied to humans will then be shared across all participants. When a new pandemic arises, these pre-selected and tested vaccines can be quickly tested in RCTs for human populations.

Retrospective testing for mpox virus in routine STI screens from men who have sex with men in England, August-October 2022.

OBJECTIVES: A global outbreak of mpox (monkeypox) has been ongoing since 2022, with most cases in the UK detected in gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Asymptomatic and pauci-symptomatic mpox infection has been reported outside of the UK. We aimed to investigate whether mpox could be detected in specimens from GBMSM in England who were attending sexual health services (SHSs) for asymptomatic sexually transmitted infection screening. METHODS: Anonymised, residual clinical specimens from GBMSM undertaking routine asymptomatic screening for gonorrhoea (Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG)) and chlamydia (Chlamydia trachomatis (CT)) infection were tested for the presence of mpox virus. Specimens were collected between 1 August and 7 October 2022 from three SHSs in high-mpox incidence areas in England. Testing was performed using a dual-clade, mpox virus-specific real-time PCR. RESULTS: During the collection period, 2927 clinical specimens (951 pharyngeal swabs, 1022 urine specimens and 954 rectal swabs) were obtained from 1159 GBMSM. Mpox virus was detected in four specimens from two participants who attended the same SHS at different times (the first during the week 8-12 of August, the second during the week 19-23 of September). One participant was positive in the urine specimen only, while the other tested positive at all three sites. CONCLUSIONS: A very low prevalence (2 of 1159, 0.17%) of mpox infection was detected in GBMSM attending SHS in England for asymptomatic NG/CT screening, suggesting that undetected infection in this population was unlikely to be a main driver of transmission. Confirmed mpox cases in the UK declined from over 1100 per month in June and July to 764 cumulatively during the collection period. These data give reassurance that the observed reduction in cases during the collection period was not due to undetected infection or changes in presentation among SHS attendees. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to support routine testing of asymptomatic GBMSM for mpox infection in England.

Domestic abuse and violence reporting by service users of an online sexually transmitted infection testing service, during the Coronavirus-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Following increased rates of domestic abuse/violence (DAV) reporting during the pandemic, London's online sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing service (Sexual Health London, SHL) introduced routine DAV enquiry and directed survivors to supportive online information. SHL evaluated this adaptation. METHOD: SHL's database identified the first individuals that ordered a test-kit between 17.8.21-28.2.22 and triggered questions disclosing DAV. SHL clinicians only contacted these individuals if positive/abnormal STI results required communicating. Within these interactions DAV was opportunistically discussed and further counselling/support offered. RESULTS: 3846/231460 (1.7%) service users triggered DAV question(s). The first 202 individuals were: median age 28 yrs (18-73 yrs); 66% (134/202) female; 72% (145/202) heterosexual; 75% (152/202) UK born. 27% (55/202) reported physical/emotional abuse, 81% (164/202) coercive control, and 22% (45/202) sexual abuse. 26% (52/202) had never visited a clinic. Telephonic discussion occurred with 10% (20/202) individuals: 10/20 accepted counselling/signposting; 2/20 referred to independent DAV advocate, 6/20 stated historic abuse, 2/20 mistakenly triggered, 2/10 declined support or disengaged. Of 29% (58/202) individuals that ordered another e-kit, 38% disclosed ongoing DAV and 9% sexual assault. CONCLUSION: 1.7% e-service users reported DAV. Telephonic DAV discussion was accepted by 80% individuals contacted. Despite providing online support 38% experienced ongoing/escalating abuse. Further engagement and support for DAV survivors using e-services is required.

Establishing nursing-sensitive quality indicators for pediatric oncology: An international mixed methods Delphi study.

INTRODUCTION: Nursing-sensitive indicators (NSIs) measure factors influencing nursing care quality and patient outcomes. Established NSIs reflect general and select specialty nursing practices. However, a core set of NSIs for international pediatric oncology nursing practice does not currently exist. Without valid and reliable quality indicators, the impact of nursing care on children and adolescents with cancer cannot be effectively measured and improved. The purpose of this study was to develop a preliminary core set of NSIs for international pediatric oncology nursing that would be important, actionable, and feasible to measure across varied resource settings and countries. DESIGN/METHODS: A multiphase sequential mixed methods research design, intersected with a classical Delphi method, was utilized. Through purposive snowball sampling, 122 expert pediatric oncology nurses from 43 countries participated. Round One: Panelists identified five potential NSIs and constructs. Open-ended responses were coded and categorized through descriptive content analysis and integrated into the next round. Round Two: Panelists selected their top 10 NSIs and constructs and ranked them by importance to patient care quality. Mean importance scores were calculated through reverse scoring; the top 10 NSIs and constructs were integrated into the next round. Round Three: Panelists ranked the top 10 NSIs and constructs by order of importance for this particular population, then rated each NSI/Construct for actionability and feasibility of measurement by Likert-scale. Rounds Two and Three were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Mixed methods meta-inferences were derived from the integration of Rounds One and Three findings. RESULTS: Eighty-five (70%) panelists from 38 countries completed all Delphi survey rounds. The preliminary core set of NSIs and constructs identified by the expert panel, and ranked in order of importance, were as follows: safe chemotherapy administration and handling, infection prevention/control, pediatric oncology nursing orientation program, early warning score system/recognition of patient deterioration, chemotherapy/biotherapy education/course, pain assessment/management, symptom assessment/management, patient and family education, palliative/end of life care, and continuing nursing education/competency. All NSIs and constructs were rated as actionable; all but palliative/end of life care were rated as feasible to measure. Each of the 10 NSIs and constructs were nominated in Round One by at least one expert panelist from low- and middle-income and high-income countries, and at least one panelist from the Americas. CONCLUSION: Preliminary core NSIs and constructs provide insight into common attributes of international pediatric oncology nursing practice that are important, actionable, and feasible for quality measurement. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: NSIs have the potential to drive quality improvement, guide comparison with other institutions, promote knowledge-sharing, and advance pediatric oncology nursing outcomes around the world. These NSIs and constructs may also be relevant to other pediatric and adult oncology settings.

Journey to a new era: An innovative academic-practice partnership.

Successful academic-clinical partnerships are mutually beneficial for academic nursing and clinical organizations, supporting the long-term success of nursing programs while simultaneously improving patient outcomes. Advocated by the American Association of Colleges of Nursing in their 2016 report, Advancing Healthcare Transformation: New Era for Academic Nursing, this position paper provides six actions for transforming academic nursing. However, developing sustainable academic-practice models has proven challenging despite this roadmap, as research has not substantiated their benefits. This article describes an innovative academic-practice model that transitioned advanced practice registered nurses practicing at Le Bonheur Children's Hospital to full-time faculty, with a continued primary clinical practice role, in the College of Nursing at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center. We present the origin, development, and implementation of this academic-practice partnership model, offering recommendations for its replication by other universities and clinical agencies on this journey. Creating a sustainable model requires a shared vision, buy-in at all levels, frequent and transparent communication, planning that considers the individual policies of the partnering agencies, and persistence despite leadership changes. Two years into the partnership and remaining intact despite critical leadership changes within the clinical agency, the next phase of the relationship will permit us to document the model's impact on academic and clinical outcomes.

Variations of COVID-19 mortality are affected by economic disparities across countries.

BACKGROUND: When the COVID-19 case number reaches a maximum in a country, its capacity and management of health system face greatest challenge. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on data of turning points for cases and deaths for the first three waves of COVID-19 in countries with more than 5000 cumulative cases, as reported by Worldometers and WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard. We compared the case fatality rates (CFRs) and time lags (in unit of day) between the turning points of cases and deaths among countries in different development stages and potential influence factors. As of May 10, 2021, 106 out of 222 countries or regions (56%) reported more than 5000 cases. Approximately half of them have experienced all the three waves of COVID-19 disease. The average mortality rate at the disease turning point was 0.038 for the first wave, 0.020 for the second wave, and 0.023 for wave 3. In high-income countries, the mortality rates during the first wave are higher than that of the other income levels. However, the mortality rates during the second and third waves of COVID-19 were much lower than those of the first wave, with a significant reduction from 5.7% to 1.7% approximately 70%. At the same time, high-income countries exhibited a 2-fold increase in time lags during the second and the third waves compared to the first wave, suggesting that the periods between the cases and deaths turning point extended. High rates in the first wave in developed countries are associated to multiple factors including transportation, population density, and aging populations. In upper middle- and lower middle-income countries, the decreasing of mortality rates in the second and third waves were subtle or even reversed, with increased mortality during the following waves. In the upper and lower middle-income countries, the time lags were about 50% of the durations observed from high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Economy and medical resources affect the efficiency of COVID-19 mitigation and the clinical outcomes of the patients. The situation is likely to become even worse in the light of these countries' limited ability to combat COVID-19 and prevent severe outcomes or deaths as the new variant transmission becomes dominant.

Beyond the binary: sexual health outcomes of transgender and non-binary service users of an online sexual health service.

Sexual health data on transgender and non-binary (TNB) people in the United Kingdom are limited. TNB individuals experience significant socioeconomic and stigma-related disadvantages. Sexual health morbidity and unmet need is likely to be significant. We compared the sexual health outcomes of TNB and cisgender users of London's online sexual health service. Of 119329 users that registered with the e-service between 30.4.19 and 31.12.19, 504 (0.42%) identified as TNB: 302 TNB users requested 463 kits. 78.4% (363/463) of kits were returned. 99.4% of dispatched kits included throat and rectal swabs for gonorrhoea and chlamydia testing. STI/HIV test positivity was: 5.5% syphilis, 4.8% chlamydia, 3.4% gonorrhoea and 0.7% HIV positive. HIV prevalence amongst TNB individuals was: 4.3%. 19.9% of TNB individuals engaged in chemsex, group sex, or fisting and were more likely to engage in sex work. 97.7% gave the service 4/5 or 5/5 star rating. We observed high positivity rates of HIV/STIs amongst TNB individuals and significant levels of high-risk sexual activity. Service users rated the service highly. Given TNB often have complex healthcare needs, some of which cannot be met entirely online, physical clinics must work collaboratively with e-services to support and protect this marginalised population.

Characteristics of newly diagnosed HIV-positive service users using a pan-London e-sexually transmitted infection screening service.

Maximising opportunities and removing barriers to HIV testing can help reduce the undiagnosed HIV population. Digital STI/HIV screening services have increased in availability and can improve access and testing coverage. We identified the characteristics of individuals who tested HIV positive using a regional, integrated, self-sampling STI service. The e-notes of service users with reactive HIV screening results were reviewed. Between 8 January 2018 and 31 December 2019, 0.097% (144/148,257) users received a reactive HIV result, 30/144 (20.8%) of whom had previously diagnosed HIV infection. All of the remaining 114 users were notified of their screening result, an estimated 109/114 (95.6%) received confirmatory testing (CT) at a sexual health clinic (SHC) and the confirmatory outcome was documented in 102/114 (89.5%) of cases: 34/114 (29.8%)were HIV positive, 68/114 (59.6%) HIV were negative and the result was unknown in 12/114 (10.5%). All new diagnoses transitioned to HIV outpatient care. These individuals were median age 28 years; 94.1% (32/34) male; 88.2% (30/34) men who have sex with men and 11.8% (4/34) heterosexual; 58.8% (20/34) of white/'white other' ethnicity and 42.2% of Black, Asian and minority ethnic group; 50%(17/34) had a concurrent STI; 9% and 21% had never tested for HIV or attended a SHC before. n HIV test reactivity rate of 0.1%(95% CI) was observed. Confirmed new HIV diagnoses comprised 0.023% of all HIV tests performed. All individuals where CT confirmed a new HIV diagnosis transitioned to HIV specialist care.

A sustainable model for pediatric oncology nursing education and capacity building in Latin American hospitals: Evolution and impact of a nurse educator network.

Through an "educate-the-educator" twinning model, pediatric oncology nurse educator roles and programs have been established at hospitals in Latin America since 2008. However, with increasing demand for nurse educator programs in the region, a twinning approach was no longer sustainable. Thus, a "nurse educator network" approach was established to scale adaptable, standardized multisite education and quality initiatives. The development, expansion, and impact of a sustainable network approach for pediatric oncology nursing capacity building in Latin America is described. The educator network approach serves as a potential model for other geographical regions. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact and adaptations are addressed.

Capacity of transportation and spread of COVID-19-an ironical fact for developed countries.

The widespread epidemic of the COVID-19 in developed countries such as Europe and the USA has sparked many speculations. What factors caused the rapid early pandemic of the COVID-19 in developed countries is the main goal of this study. We collected the main disease indicators and various environmental and economic factors in 61 countries around the world. Our results show that the number of cases is positively correlated with the country's GDP. We further analyzed the factors related to the spread of the disease. They indicate a strong positive correlation between the total patient numbers and the number of airline passengers, with an r value of 0.80. There is also a positive correlation between the number of car ownership and the total patient, with an r value of 0.35. Both the flight passengers and car ownership contribute 66% to the number of total patients. The total death numbers and the number of airline passengers are positively correlated, with an r value of 0.71. A positive correlation between the number of car ownership and the total deaths is with an r value of 0.42. The total contribution of both the flight passengers and car ownership to the number of total deaths is 57%. Our conclusion is that the main cause of the coronavirus pandemic in developed countries is related to the transportation. In other words, the number of travelers determined the early coronavirus pandemic. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen restrictions and screening of passengers at airports, especially international airports.

COVID-19 vaccine: Call for employees in international transportation industries and international travelers as the first priority in global distribution.

While countries are in a hurry to obtain SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, we are concerned with the availability of vaccine and whether a vaccine will be available to all in need. We predicted three possible scenarios for vaccine distributions and urge an international united action on the worldwide equitable access. In case the international community does not reach a consensus on how to distribute the vaccine to achieve worldwide equitable access, we call for a distribution plan that includes the employees in international transportation industries and international travelers to halt the disease transmission and promote the recovery of the global economy.

Development and Content Validation of an Instrument to Measure Baseline Standards for Pediatric Oncology Nursing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

The Nursing Working Group of the International Society of Pediatric Oncology developed baseline standards for pediatric oncology nursing care in low- and middle-income countries. The standards represent the foundational support required to provide quality nursing care and address barriers such as inadequate staffing, lack of support, limited access to education, and unsafe nursing environments. The purpose of the current study was to develop and validate an instrument to accurately measure the standards. Content validity was assessed by a panel of expert pediatric oncology nurses from all geographical regions of the World Health Organization. The experts were informed about the study's purpose and provided the publications used to develop the instrument. The experts rated how well each criterion measured the corresponding standard by using a 4-point scale. A content validity index (CVI) was computed by using the percentage of total standards given a score of 3 or 4 by the experts. A CVI of .98 was obtained from the panel's evaluation. A CVI of more than .80 is recommended for a newly developed instrument. On the basis of the panel's recommendations, minor modifications were made to the instrument. We developed and validated the content of an instrument to accurately measure baseline standards for pediatric oncology nursing care. This instrument will aid future research on the effect of nursing standards on clinical outcomes, including mortality and abandonment of treatment, with the potential to influence health policy decisions and improve nursing support in low- and middle-income countries.

Sexual assault reporting amongst users of online sexual health services.

Sexual assault (SA) survivors often attend sexual health clinics (SHC) for care relating to their assault. Reported rates of SA amongst SHC attendees can be high. Online sexual health services are becoming increasingly popular. Sexual Health London (SHL) is a large online sexual transmitted infection (STI) screening service. Between 1.1.20- 8.2.20, 0.5% (242/45841) (54% female, 45.6% male) of adults disclosed a recent SA when ordering an online STI testing kit. 79% (192/242) users engaged in a call back discussion initiated by the SHL team: 45% (87/192) users confirmed a SA had occurred and 53% (101/242) users denied an assault (particularly men) stating they had reported this in error. 18% (16/87) users had already reported their SA to the police/sexual assault centre, and one user accepted an onward referral. This study found a low reporting rate of SA amongst SHL users, but despite a high response rate to call backs, >50% cited they reported in error, 25% (22/87) didn't want to discuss their SA and few accepted onward referrals. Using e-triage to screen for SA followed by service-initiated telephonic support to everyone who discloses, may not be acceptable or offer utility to all. Further evaluation of ways to engage these individuals is required.

Safeguarding outcomes of 16 and 17-year-old service users of Sexual Health London (SHL.uk), a pan-London online sexual health service.

Guidance around how to safeguard young people using online sexual health services (e-SHSs) is limited. Sexual Health London (SHL.uk) is an e-SHS, integrated with London's sexual health clinics (SHCs), offering users aged 16 years and above sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing. For a safeguarding risk assessment, under 18s must complete a safeguarding e-triage, and any concern raised results in a 'call back' (CB) by the SHL.uk team. The safeguarding outcomes of CBs between 8 January 2018 and 18 September 2018 were reviewed; 261/454 (57.5%) users never triggered a CB on their e-triage (non-CB group) and 193/454 (42.5%) users triggered one or more CB(s) (CB group). Safeguarding concerns disclosed predominantly related to drug/alcohol use and partner's age imbalance. Successful telephonic risk assessment took place in 84.5% CB cases. Safeguarding outcomes comprised referrals to: SHC in 35.5%; child protection team in 8.5%; social services in 7%. STI positivity was 16.4% and 15.2% in the CB and non-CB groups, respectively. Although a high number of safeguarding triggers were disclosed, only a small proportion warranted referral for further support/intervention. Using e-triage with telephony support to screen and safeguard adolescents accessing an e-SHS was acceptable to users and enabled their clinical and safeguarding needs to be safely met. e-SHS integration within a network of SHCs further supported this model.

Development of a COVID-19 alternate care site from ground zero: A nursing perspective.

The novel coronavirus disease SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) outbreak rapidly generated an unprecedented global, national, and state public health crisis with the need to rapidly develop alternate care sites (ACS) to care for COVID-19 patients within an overburdened health care system. A hospital care model ACS to increase the health care capacity, provide care for mild to moderately symptomatic patients, and offer local self-sustainment for a surge of patients was developed in Memphis, Tennessee located in Shelby County. We completed a temporary conversion of a large unused newspaper publication building to a health care facility for COVID-19 patients. Developing an ACS from ground zero was met with many challenges, and throughout the process important lessons were learned. With the goal to complete the building conversion within a 28-day timeframe, collaboration among the numerous governmental, health care, and private agencies was critical and nursing leadership was key to this process. The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a COVID-19 ACS in Memphis, TN, which has a large at-risk population with limited access to health care. Specifically, we will discuss the strong leadership role of nursing faculty, key challenges, and lessons learned, as well as provide checklists and models for others in similar circumstances.

Real-time estimation and prediction of mortality caused by COVID-19 with patient information based algorithm.

The global COVID-19 outbreak is worrisome both for its high rate of spread, and the high case fatality rate reported by early studies and now in Italy. We report a new methodology, the Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA), for estimating the death rate of a disease in real-time using publicly available data collected during an outbreak. PIBA estimated the death rate based on data of the patients in Wuhan and then in other cities throughout China. The estimated days from hospital admission to death was 13 (standard deviation (SD), 6 days). The death rates based on PIBA were used to predict the daily numbers of deaths since the week of February 25, 2020, in China overall, Hubei province, Wuhan city, and the rest of the country except Hubei province. The death rate of COVID-19 ranges from 0.75% to 3% and may decrease in the future. The results showed that the real death numbers had fallen into the predicted ranges. In addition, using the preliminary data from China, the PIBA method was successfully used to estimate the death rate and predict the death numbers of the Korean population. In conclusion, PIBA can be used to efficiently estimate the death rate of a new infectious disease in real-time and to predict future deaths. The spread of 2019-nCoV and its case fatality rate may vary in regions with different climates and temperatures from Hubei and Wuhan. PIBA model can be built based on known information of early patients in different countries.

The Data set for Patient Information Based Algorithm to Predict Mortality Cause by COVID-19.

The data of COVID-19 disease in China and then in South Korea were collected daily from several different official websites. The collected data included 33 death cases in Wuhan city of Hubei province during early outbreak as well as confirmed cases and death toll in some specific regions, which were chosen as representatives from the perspective of the coronavirus outbreak in China. Data were copied and pasted onto Excel spreadsheets to perform data analysis. A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1], has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. Assumption is that the number of days from inpatients to death fall into a pattern of normal distribution and the scores in normal distribution can be obtained by observing 33 death cases and analysing the data [2]. We selected 5 scores in normal distribution of these durations as lagging days, which will be used in the following estimation of death rate. We calculated each death rate on accumulative confirmed cases with each lagging day from the current data and then weighted every death rate with its corresponding possibility to obtain the total death rate on each day. While the trendline of these death rate curves meet the curve of current ratio between accumulative death cases and confirmed cases at some points in the near future, we considered that these intersections are within the range of real death rates. Six tables were presented to illustrate the PIBA method using data from China and South Korea. One figure on estimated rate of infection and patients in serious condition and retrospective estimation of initially occurring time of CORID-19 based on PIBA.

Predictors of Hospitals' Nonachievement of Baseline Nursing Standards for Pediatric Oncology.

BACKGROUND: The International Society of Pediatric Oncology established baseline standards for pediatric oncology nursing; limited evidence is available to predict hospitals' capacity to meet these standards internationally. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to (1) determine the proportion of hospitals that met, partially met or did not meet baseline standards for pediatric oncology nursing and (2) identify predictors of hospitals' nonachievement of baseline standards for pediatric oncology nursing. METHODS/ANALYSIS: A secondary analysis of International Society of Pediatric Oncology web-based survey data of baseline nursing standards was conducted. Predictor variables were derived from surveyed hospital characteristics and external data sources. Multivariable parsimonious logistic regression models identified predictors of hospitals' nonachievement of each standard. RESULTS: Nurses from 101 hospitals across 54 countries completed the survey; 12% to 66% of hospitals reported meeting each of 6 baseline standards. Predictors of nonachievement of standards included low current health expenditure as percentage of gross domestic product, World Health Organization Region of Africa, United Nations "developing or transition" country classification, countries with fewer than 3 nurses/midwives per 1000 population, and hospitals without bone marrow transplant and/or intensive care units. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitals with characteristics predictive of inability to meet baseline standards will likely require greater capacity-building support and advocacy to improve the quality of nursing care. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Findings from this study highlight internal and external factors that challenge the delivery of high-quality pediatric oncology nursing care internationally.