Progression of coronary artery calcium predicts all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined a large cohort to assess whether progression of coronary artery calcium (CAC) was associated with all-cause mortality, and which among 3 different methods to assess CAC progression provided the best estimate of risk. BACKGROUND: Serial assessment of CAC scores has been proposed as a method to follow progression of coronary artery disease, and it has been suggested that excessive CAC progression may be a useful noninvasive predictor of the patient's risk of future events. However, the optimal method to measure calcium progression has not been well established. METHODS: The study sample consisted of 4,609 consecutive asymptomatic individuals referred by primary physicians for CAC measurement with electron beam tomography, who underwent repeat screening. Three general statistical approaches were taken: 1) the absolute difference between follow-up and baseline CAC score; 2) percent annualized differences between follow-up and baseline CAC score; and 3) difference between square root of baseline and square root of follow-up CAC score >2.5 (the "SQRT method"). RESULTS: The average interscan time was 3.1 years, and there were 288 deaths. Progression of CAC was significantly associated with mortality regardless of the method used to assess progression (p < 0.0001). After adjusting for baseline score, age, sex, and time between scans, the best CAC progression model to predict mortality was the SQRT method (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.65 to 4.21; p < 0.0001), followed by a >15% yearly increase (HR: 2.98; 95% CI: 2.20 to 4.95; p < 0.0001). Progression was very limited and did not predict mortality in patients with baseline CAC = 0. CONCLUSIONS: The CAC progression added incremental value in predicting all-cause mortality over baseline score, time between scans, demographics, and cardiovascular risk factors. Serial assessment may have clinical value in assessing plaque progression and future cardiovascular risk.

Vascular function measured by fingertip thermal reactivity is impaired in patients with metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus.

Digital thermal monitoring (DTM) of vascular function has already been shown to correlate well with coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and coronary artery disease. To determine its utility in the metabolic syndrome (MS) and diabetes mellitus (DM), 233 asymptomatic patients with DM/MS but without coronary artery disease underwent DTM during and after 5 minutes of supra-systolic arm cuff inflation, as well as CAC. Post-cuff deflation adjusted temperature rebound (aTR) was lower in MS and DM compared with the normal group. The odds ratio of lowest vs upper 2 tertiles of aTR was 2.3 for MS and 3.5 for DM compared with the normal group, independent of age, sex, and risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict CAC > or =100 was 0.69 for metabolic status (DM/MS), 0.79 for aTR, and 0.87 for both. This study demonstrates that vascular dysfunction measured by DTM is associated with DM/MS and could potentially be used to detect asymptomatic individuals with increased subclinical atherosclerosis.