Hepatitis B outbreak in a nursing home associated with reusable lancet devices for blood glucose monitoring, Northern Germany 2010.

In September 2010, an outbreak of acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections in a nursing home was notified to public health authorities in Northern Germany. To identify the route of transmission and prevent further cases a retrospective cohort study was conducted. Blood samples of residents were tested for serologic markers of HBV infection and HBV subgenotypes and sequences were analyzed. Outbreak-related cases were defined as residents of the nursing home with detection of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and the HBV DNA sequence of the outbreak strain in 2010. Information on possible risk factors as patient care, invasive diagnostic, and therapeutical procedures was collected using a standardized questionnaire. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated with exact Poisson regression and binomial regression. Sixty-four residents were included in the study, 5 of them were outbreak-related cases, 12 had a past HBV infection. The outbreak strain belonged to HBV genotype D2 (HBsAg subtype ayw3, Ala118) which is not prevalent in Germany but in Eastern Europe. All cases (median age 81) were female, had diabetes, blood glucose monitoring, and chiropody. In multivariable analysis only blood glucose monitoring was associated with HBV infection (RR = 22, 95%CI 3.0-∞). Blood glucose monitoring was reported to be done by nursing home staff with patient-based reusable lancet devices. In nursing home settings the use of single use lancets for blood glucose monitoring is recommended strongly to prevent transmission. National guidelines on the handling of point-of-care devices and reusable equipment in long-term care facilities should be developed.

Effectiveness of routine and booster pertussis vaccination in children and adolescents, federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, 2002-2012.

BACKGROUND: In Germany, whole-cell pertussis vaccines were rapidly replaced by high-concentration acellular pertussis-containing vaccines (3+1 doses from 2 months of age) starting in 1995. Boosters were recommended for 9- to 17-year-olds (2000) and for 5- to 6-year-olds (2006). Pertussis incidence remains high despite rising vaccination coverage (VC). Therefore, we analyzed VC and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the federal state of Brandenburg. METHODS: In a stratified case-cohort analysis, we compared VC of reported pertussis cases with VC assessed in schools and kindergartens in the following strata: Children aged 2-3 years born 2005-2009 (toddlers), 5-7 years born 1995-2006 (pre-schoolers) and 15-16 years born 1995-1996 (adolescents). We calculated VE for primary and booster vaccination using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Four-dose VE decreased from 96.9% in toddlers [95% confidence interval (CI): 72.2-99.3] to 87.8% in pre-schoolers (95% CI: 79.7-92.7) to 81.7% in adolescents (95% CI: 40.6-92.8). Four-dose VE was lower in pre-schoolers born after 1996 (75.4%) than in those born 1995-1996, ~1% and ~21% of whom had received ≥1 dose of whole-cell pertussis vaccines, respectively. VE was higher in pre-schoolers and adolescents who received a booster (92.8%and 96.5%, respectively). However, overall booster VC was only 19% and 76% in these age groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We observed high VE of routine pertussis vaccination, with evidence of waning over time and improved VE after booster vaccination. Increased uptake and monitoring of recommended pertussis boosters is urgently recommended to decrease high pertussis morbidity particularly in older children and adolescents.

Modelling the epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination in Germany--a Bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus (RV) infection is the primary cause of severe gastroenteritis in children aged <5 years in Germany and worldwide. In 2013 the German Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) developed a national recommendation for routine RV-immunization of infants. To support informed decision-making we predicted the epidemiological impact of routine RV-vaccination in Germany using statistical modelling. METHODS: We developed a population-based model for the dynamic transmission of RV-infection in a vaccination setting. Using data from the communicable disease reporting system and survey records on the vaccination coverage from the eastern federal states, where the vaccine was widely used before recommended at national level, we first estimated RV vaccine effectiveness (VE) within a Bayesian framework utilizing adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference. The calibrated model was then used to compute the predictive distribution of RV-incidence after achieving high vaccination coverage with the introduction of routine vaccination. RESULTS: Our model estimated that RV-vaccination provides high protection against symptomatic RV-infection (VE=96%; 95% credibility interval (CI): 91-99%) that remains at its maximum level for three years (95% CI: 1.43-5.80 years) and is fully waned after twelve years. At population level, routine vaccination at 90% coverage is predicted to reduce symptomatic RV-incidence among children aged <5 years by 84% (95% prediction interval (PI): 71-90%) including a 2.5% decrease due to herd protection. Ten years after vaccine introduction an increase in RV incidences of 12% (95% PI: -16 to 85%) among persons aged 5-59 years and 14% (95% PI: -6 to 109%) within the age-group >60 years was predicted. CONCLUSION: Routine infant RV-vaccination is predicted to considerably reduce RV-incidence in Germany among children <5 years. Our work generated estimates of RV VE in the field and predicted the population-level impact, while adequately addressing the role of model and prediction uncertainty when making statements about the future.

Bayesian parameter inference for dynamic infectious disease modelling: rotavirus in Germany.

Understanding infectious disease dynamics using epidemic models based on ordinary differential equations requires the calibration of model parameters from data. A commonly used approach in practice to simplify this task is to fix many parameters on the basis of expert or literature information. However, this not only leaves the corresponding uncertainty unexamined but often also leads to biased inference for the remaining parameters because of dependence structures inherent in any given model. In the present work, we develop a Bayesian inference framework that lessens the reliance on such external parameter quantifications by pursuing a more data-driven calibration approach. This includes a novel focus on residual autocorrelation combined with model averaging techniques in order to reduce these estimates' dependence on the underlying model structure. We applied our methods to the modelling of age-stratified weekly rotavirus incidence data in Germany from 2001 to 2008 using a complex susceptible-infectious-susceptible-type model complemented by the stochastic reporting of new cases. As a result, we found the detection rate in the eastern federal states to be more than four times higher compared with that of the western federal states (19.0% vs 4.3%), and also the infectiousness of symptomatically infected individuals was estimated to be more than 10 times higher than that of asymptomatically infected individuals (95% credibility interval: 8.1­19.6). Not only do these findings give valuable epidemiological insight into the transmission processes, we were also able to examine the considerable impact on the model-predicted transmission dynamics when fixing parameters beforehand.

Differential use of antivirals for treatment of patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Germany.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends early antiviral treatment for patients with severe influenza illness or those at increased risk for severe illness. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of cases with laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection that have been treated with antivirals in Germany during the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and to investigate factors associated with the use of antivirals. METHODS: We analyzed cases with laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection notified to national health authorities in Germany between week 29/2009 and week 17/2010 using multivariable logistic regression. Severity of disease was defined by pneumonia or death. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Of 160,804 cases with laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection, 22% were treated with antivirals. Cases with severe disease were more likely to be treated with antivirals than cases without severe disease (odds ratio=1·66; 95% confidence interval: 1·46-1·89). In the group with at least one underlying medical condition, only children aged between 1 and 4 years had significant lower odds for receiving antiviral treatment compared with cases in the age group 15 to 49 years (odds ratio=0·75; 95% confidence interval: 0·6-0·94). In conclusion, the implementation of international recommendations on use of antivirals differed according to the age of patients in Germany during the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This indicates that the potential of antivirals to prevent severe influenza might not have been fully exhausted. The reasons leading to the observed differences in patient management need to be investigated.

MRSA transmission on a neonatal intensive care unit: epidemiological and genome-based phylogenetic analyses.

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) may cause prolonged outbreaks of infections in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). While the specific factors favouring MRSA spread on neonatal wards are not well understood, colonized infants, their relatives, or health-care workers may all be sources for MRSA transmission. Whole-genome sequencing may provide a new tool for elucidating transmission pathways of MRSA at a local scale. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We applied whole-genome sequencing to trace MRSA spread in a NICU and performed a case-control study to identify risk factors for MRSA transmission. MRSA genomes had accumulated sequence variation sufficiently fast to reflect epidemiological linkage among individual patients, between infants and their mothers, and between infants and staff members, such that the relevance of individual nurses' nasal MRSA colonization for prolonged transmission could be evaluated. In addition to confirming previously reported risk factors, we identified an increased risk of transmission from infants with as yet unknown MRSA colonisation, in contrast to known MRSA-positive infants. CONCLUSIONS: The integration of epidemiological (temporal, spatial) and genomic data enabled the phylogenetic testing of several hypotheses on specific MRSA transmission routes within a neonatal intensive-care unit. The pronounced risk of transmission emanating from undetected MRSA carriers suggested that increasing the frequency or speed of microbiological diagnostics could help to reduce transmission of MRSA.

Rotavirus vaccine effectiveness and case-control study on risk factors for breakthrough infections in Germany, 2010-2011.

BACKGROUND: In the German federal state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, routine rotavirus (RV) vaccination in infants has been recommended since 2009. The effectiveness of RV vaccination was investigated after an unexpectedly high number of RV infections in fully vaccinated children occurred. METHODS: Intensified RV surveillance was performed in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania between 2010 and 2011. The screening method was applied to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) in children up to 24 months after vaccination. To identify risk factors for breakthrough infections, a case-control study and genotyping were conducted in vaccinated and unvaccinated RV-infected children. RESULTS: VE for the prevention of RV infection requiring medical attention or hospitalization was 68% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61-71) and 80% (95% CI: 77-83), respectively. VE for preventing hospitalization but not medical attention remained stable over 2 years. Vaccinated were less often hospitalized (23%) than unvaccinated RV-infected children (61%; P < 0.001). Breastfeeding (odds ratio, 3.99; 95% CI: 1.92-8.27) and attending daycare (odds ratio, 3.42; 95% CI: 1.64-7.12) were independently associated with breakthrough infections. Genotype G1P[8] was detected more frequently in RotaTeq-vaccinated (44% versus 11%; P < 0.03) and G2P[4] in Rotarix-vaccinated children (42% versus 6%; P < 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: RV vaccination protects young children effectively from RV disease and can reduce disease severity. Breastfeeding might impair VE, but further research is needed to identify the critical time window for this interference and to develop appropriate recommendations.

Human papillomavirus vaccine uptake, knowledge and attitude among 10th grade students in Berlin, Germany, 2010.

PURPOSE: Since March 2007, the Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) recommends HPV vaccination for all 12-17 y-old females in Germany. In the absence of an immunization register, we aimed at assessing HPV-vaccination coverage and knowledge among students in Berlin, the largest city in Germany, to identify factors influencing HPV-vaccine uptake. METHODS: Self-administered questionnaires were distributed to 10th grade school students in 14 participating schools in Berlin to assess socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge, and statements on vaccinations. Vaccination records were reviewed. Multivariable statistical methods were applied to identify independent predictors for HPV-vaccine uptake among female participants. RESULTS: Between September and December 2010, 442 students completed the questionnaire (mean age 15.1; range 14-19). In total 281/442 (63.6%) students specified HPV correctly as a sexually transmitted infection. Of 238 participating girls, 161 (67.6%) provided their vaccination records. Among these, 66 (41.0%) had received the recommended three HPV-vaccine doses. Reasons for being HPV-unvaccinated were reported by 65 girls: Dissuasion from parents (40.2%), dissuasion from their physician (18.5%), and concerns about side-effects (30.8%) (multiple choices possible). The odds of being vaccinated increased with age (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.19, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.16, 4.15) and decreased with negative attitude toward vaccinations (OR = 0.33, 95%CI 0.13, 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: HPV-vaccine uptake was low among school girls in Berlin. Both, physicians and parents were influential regarding their HPV-vaccination decision even though personal perceptions played an important role as well. School programs could be beneficial to improve knowledge related to HPV and vaccines, and to offer low-barrier access to HPV vaccination.

Epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease in Germany, 2002-2010, and impact of vaccination with meningococcal C conjugate vaccine.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse serogroup (Sg)- and finetype-specific invasive meningococcal disease burden (IMD) in Germany, 2002-2010, with emphasis on effects of vaccination with conjugate SgC vaccines targeting one-year old children since 2006, including individual-based catch-up to 17 years of age. METHODS: Serogroup- and age-specific IMD incidence and trends were calculated using statutory surveillance data. The national reference laboratory performed genetic finetyping. Vaccination uptake data were obtained from school entry surveys and prescription monitoring. RESULTS: In persons <25 years, SgB and SgC IMD incidence decreased significantly from 0.63 to 0.32/100,000 and 0.26 to 0.10/100,000, respectively. The decline was significantly steeper for SgC than SgB in 1-5 year-olds, the primary vaccination target group, but not other ages. The slope of the SgC incidence curves was similar before and after vaccination implementation in all age groups; however, the decrease in incidence was steeper in states with higher vaccination uptake. Declining SgC incidence was associated with decreased SgC finetype diversity. An increase in SgY incidence was limited to adults. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest effects of the German SgC vaccination strategy are limited, although interpretation is complicated by already low and decreasing incidence before vaccination. More effective use of vaccination resources might be achieved by rigorously targeting adolescents in addition to 1-year-olds.

Unchanged severity of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in children during first postpandemic season.

We conducted a nationwide hospital-based prospective study in Germany of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases among children <15 years of age admitted to pediatric intensive care units and related deaths during the 2009-10 pandemic and the 2010-11 postpandemic influenza seasons. We identified 156 eligible patients: 112 in 2009-10 and 44 in 2010-11. Although a shift to younger patients occurred in 2010-11 (median age 3.2 vs. 5.3 years), infants <1 year of age remained the most affected. Underlying immunosuppression was a risk factor for hospital-acquired infections (p = 0.013), which accounted for 14% of cases. Myocarditis was predictive of death (p = 0.006). Of the 156 case-patients, 17% died; the difference between seasons was not significant (p = 0.473). Our findings stress the challenge of preventing severe postpandemic influenza infection in children and the need to prevent nosocomial transmission of influenza virus, especially in immunosuppressed children.

Seropositivity of Lyme borreliosis and associated risk factors: a population-based study in Children and Adolescents in Germany (KiGGS).

BACKGROUND: Lyme borreliosis (LB) caused by spirochetes of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato complex is the most common tick-borne disease in the northern hemisphere. Data on the distribution and on risk factors in Germany are sketchy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Blood samples of a nationwide population-based cross-sectional study from 2003-2006 in children and adolescents aged 1 to 17 years in Germany (KiGGS) were analysed (n = 12,614) to assess the seroprevalence of anti-Borrelia antibodies. Data from standardized interviews were used to assess potential risk factors. First, sera were screened for anti-Borrelia antibodies by ELISA. The overall prevalence was 4.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.3-5.4%). Positive and borderline ELISA test results were confirmed by a line blot revealing a combined prevalence of 4.0% (95% CI 3.6-4.5%). Seroprevalence of ELISA was significantly higher in males (odds ratio (OR) = 1.37; CI 1.15-1.63) and in the southern part of Germany (OR = 1.41; CI 1.09-1.83), but significantly lower in children and adolescents with migration background (OR = 0.33; CI 0.24-0.44). Study participants from households with cats had a higher chance of seropositivity (OR = 6.7; CI 5.6-8.0). In a multivariable model the odds of seropositivity increases by 11% for every year of age for boys and 6% for girls. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This survey is the first nationwide, representative seroprevalence survey of LB in children and young adolescents. The study shows that infections with Borrelia burgdorferi are endemic in all parts of Germany despite regional differences. Even at a young age children are exposed to tick bites including seropositivity. Encouraging a thorough check for ticks and promptly removal of ticks are the key public health strategies to reduce the risk of LB and other tick-borne diseases in children and adolescents. Further epidemiological studies are warranted to better understand the burden of disease related to LB.

Lessons from a one-year hospital-based surveillance of acute respiratory infections in Berlin- comparing case definitions to monitor influenza.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in sentinel hospitals is recommended to estimate the burden of severe influenza-cases. Therefore, we monitored patients admitted with respiratory infections (RI) in 9 Berlin hospitals from 7.12.2009 to 12.12.2010 according to different case definitions (CD) and determined the proportion of cases with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (pH1N1). We compared the sensitivity and specificity of CD for capturing pandemic pH1N1 cases. METHODS: We established an RI-surveillance restricted to adults aged ≤ 65 years within the framework of a pH1N1 vaccine effectiveness study, which required active identification of RI-cases. The hospital information-system was screened daily for newly admitted RI-patients. Nasopharyngeal swabs from consenting patients were tested by PCR for influenza-virus subtypes. Four clinical CD were compared in terms of capturing pH1N1-positives among hospitalized RI-patients by applying sensitivity and specificity analyses. The broadest case definition (CD1) was used for inclusion of RI-cases; the narrowest case definition (CD4) was identical to the SARI case definition recommended by ECDC/WHO. RESULTS: Over the study period, we identified 1,025 RI-cases, of which 283 (28%) met the ECDC/WHO SARI case definition. The percentage of SARI-cases among internal medicine admissions decreased from 3.2% (calendar-week 50-2009) to 0.2% (week 25-2010). Of 354 patients tested by PCR, 20 (6%) were pH1N1-positive. Two case definitions narrower than CD1 but -in contrast to SARI- not requiring shortness of breath yielded the largest areas under the Receiver-Operator-Curve. Heterogeneity of proportions of patients admitted with RI between hospitals was significant. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive surveillance of RI cases was feasible in a network of community hospitals. In most settings, several hospitals should be included to ensure representativeness. Although misclassification resulting from failure to obtain symptoms in the hospital information-system cannot be ruled out, a high proportion of hospitalized PCR-positive pH1N1-patients (45%) did not fulfil the SARI case-definition that included shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Thus, to assess influenza-related disease burden in hospitals, broader, alternative case definitions should be considered.

Severe cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in children, Germany.

In a hospital-based observational study in Germany, we investigated children admitted to pediatric intensive care units and deaths caused by confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 to identify risk factors and outcomes in critically ill children. Ninety-three children were eligible for our study, including 9 with hospital-acquired infections. Seventy-five percent had underlying chronic medical conditions; neurodevelopmental disorders were most prevalent (57%). The proportion of patients having ≥1 risk factor increased with age in years (odds ratio 1.21, p = 0.007). Of 15 deaths, 11 occurred in a pediatric intensive care unit (case-fatality rate 12%, 95% confidence interval 6%-21%). Only 9% of the children had been vaccinated against pandemic (H1N1) 2009; all survived. Our results stress the role of underlying risk factors, especially neurodevelopmental disorders, and the need for improving preventive measures to reduce severe disease and adverse outcomes of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in children.

Statistical evidence for ancestral correlation patterns.

Statistical correlations in DNA sequences are an important source of information for processes of genome evolution. As a special case of such correlations and building up on our previous work, here we study, how short-range correlations in Eukaryotic genomes change under elimination of various classes of repetitive DNA. Our main result is that a residual correlation pattern, common to most mammalian species, emerges under elimination of all repetitive DNA, suggesting features of an ancestral correlation signature. Furthermore, using this general framework, we find classes of repeats, which upon deletion move the correlation pattern towards this residual pattern (simple repeats and SINEs) or away from this residual pattern (LINEs). These findings suggest that the common correlation pattern visible in the mammalian species after repeat elimination can be associated with a common mammalian ancestor.

Informational structure of two closely related eukaryotic genomes.

Attempts to identify a species on the basis of its DNA sequence on purely statistical grounds have been formulated for more than a decade. The most prominent of such genome signatures relies on neighborhood correlations (i.e., dinucleotide frequencies) and, consequently, attributes species identification to mechanisms operating on the dinucleotide level (e.g., neighbor-dependent mutations). For the examples of Mus musculus and Rattus norvegicus we analyze short- and intermediate-range statistical correlations in DNA sequences. These correlation profiles are computed for all chromosomes of the two species. We find that with increasing range of correlations the capacity to distinguish between the species on the basis of this correlation profile is getting better and requires ever shorter sequence segments for obtaining a full species separation. This finding suggests that distinctive traits within the sequence are situated beyond the level of few nucleotides. The large-scale statistical patterning of DNA sequences on which such genome signatures are based is thus substantially determined by mobile elements (e.g., transposons and retrotransposons). The study and interspecies comparison of such correlation profiles can, therefore, reveal features of retrotransposition, segmental duplications, and other processes of genome evolution.

Genome phylogeny based on short-range correlations in DNA sequences.

The surprising fact that global statistical properties computed on a genomewide scale may reveal species information has first been observed in studies of dinucleotide frequencies. Here we will look at the same phenomenon with a totally different statistical approach. We show that patterns in the short-range statistical correlations in DNA sequences serve as evolutionary fingerprints of eukaryotes. All chromosomes of a species display the same characteristic pattern, markedly different from those of other species. The chromosomes of a species are sorted onto the same branch of a phylogenetic tree due to this correlation pattern. The average correlation between nucleotides at a distance k is quantified in two independent ways: (i) by estimating it from a higher-order Markov process and (ii) by computing the mutual information function at a distance k. We show how the quality of phylogenetic reconstruction depends on the range of correlation strengths and on the length of the underlying sequence segment. This concept of the correlation pattern as a phylogenetic signature of eukaryote species combines two rather distant domains of research, namely phylogenetic analysis based on molecular observation and the study of the correlation structure of DNA sequences.

Information theory reveals large-scale synchronisation of statistical correlations in eukaryote genomes.

We study short-range correlations in DNA sequences with methods from information theory and statistics. We find a persisting degree of identity between the correlation patterns of different chromosomes of a species. Except for the case of human and chimpanzee inter-species differences in this correlation pattern allow robust species distinction: in a clustering tree based upon the correlation curves on the level of individual chromosomes distinct clusters for the individual species are found. This capacity of distinguishing species persists, even when the length of the underlying sequences is drastically reduced. In comparison to the standard tool for studying symbol correlations in DNA sequences, namely the mutual information function, we find that an autoregressive model for higher order Markov processes significantly improves species distinction due to an implicit subtraction of random background.