'What would my peers say?' Comparing the opinion-based method with the prediction-based method in Continuing Medical Education course evaluation.

Background: Although medical courses are frequently evaluated via surveys with Likert scales ranging from "strongly agree" to "strongly disagree," low response rates limit their utility. In undergraduate medical education, a new method with students predicting what their peers would say, required fewer respondents to obtain similar results. However, this prediction-based method lacks validation for continuing medical education (CME), which typically targets a more heterogeneous group than medical students. Methods: In this study, 597 participants of a large CME course were randomly assigned to either express personal opinions on a five-point Likert scale (opinion-based method; n = 300) or to predict the percentage of their peers choosing each Likert scale option (prediction-based method; n = 297). For each question, we calculated the minimum numbers of respondents needed for stable average results using an iterative algorithm. We compared mean scores and the distribution of scores between both methods. Results: The overall response rate was 47%. The prediction-based method required fewer respondents than the opinion-based method for similar average responses. Mean response scores were similar in both groups for most questions, but prediction-based outcomes resulted in fewer extreme responses (strongly agree/disagree). Conclusions: We validated the prediction-based method in evaluating CME. We also provide practical considerations for applying this method.

Contexte: Bien que les cours de médecine soient fréquemment évalués au moyen d'enquêtes avec des échelles de Likert allant de « totalement d'accord ¼ à « totalement en désaccord ¼, les faibles taux de réponse en limitent l'utilité. Dans l'enseignement médical prédoctoral, une nouvelle méthode dans laquelle les étudiants prédisent ce que leurs pairs diraient, nécessite moins de répondants pour obtenir des résultats similaires. Cependant, cette méthode fondée sur la prédiction n'est pas validée pour la formation médicale continue (FMC), qui cible généralement un groupe plus hétérogène que les étudiants en médecine. Méthodes: Dans cette étude, 597 participants à un grand cours de FMC ont été choisis au hasard pour exprimer leur opinion personnelle sur une échelle de Likert en cinq points (méthode fondée sur l'opinion; n = 300) ou à prédire le pourcentage de leurs pairs choisissant chaque option de l'échelle de Likert (méthode fondée sur la prédiction; n = 297). Pour chaque question, nous avons calculé le nombre minimum de répondants nécessaire pour obtenir des résultats moyens stables à l'aide d'un algorithme itératif. Nous avons comparé les scores moyens et la distribution des scores entre les deux méthodes. Résultats: Le taux de réponse global était de 47 %. La méthode fondée sur la prédiction a nécessité moins de répondants que celle fondée sur l'opinion pour des réponses moyennes similaires. Les scores moyens des réponses étaient similaires dans les deux groupes pour la plupart des questions, mais les résultats fondés sur la prédiction ont donné lieu à moins de réponses extrêmes (totalement d'accord/totalement en désaccord). Conclusions: Nous avons validé la méthode fondée sur la prédiction dans l'évaluation de la FMC. Nous présentons également des considérations pratiques pour la mise en œuvre de cette méthode.

When impact trials are not feasible: alternatives to study the impact of prediction models on clinical practice.

Patients with kidney disease have an uncertain future with prognosis varying greatly per patient. To get a better idea of what the future holds and tailor interventions to the individual patient, prediction models can be of great value. Before a prediction model can be applied in practice, its performance should be measured in target populations of interest (i.e., external validation) and whether it helps improve clinical practice (i.e., whether it impacts clinical practice) should be determined. The impact would ideally be determined using an impact trial, but such a trial is often not feasible, and the impact of prediction models is therefore rarely assessed. As a result, prediction models that may not be so impactful may end up in clinical practice and impactful models may not be implemented due to a lack of impact studies. Ultimately, many prediction models end up never being implemented, resulting in much research waste. To allow researchers to get an indication of a prediction model's impact on clinical practice, alternative methods to assess a prediction model's impact are important. In this paper, we discuss several alternatives, including interviews, case-based surveys, decision comparisons, outcome modelling, before-after analyses, and decision curve analyses. We discuss the general idea behind these approaches, including what information can be gathered from such studies and important pitfalls. Lastly, we provide examples of the different alternatives.

Biomarkers in clinical epidemiology studies.

This paper discusses the use of biomarkers in clinical practice and biomedical research. Biomarkers are measurable characteristics that can be used to indicate the presence or absence of a disease or to track the progression of a disease. They can also be used to predict how a patient will respond to a particular treatment. Biomarkers have enriched clinical practice and disease prognosis by providing measurable characteristics that indicate biological processes. They offer valuable insights into disease susceptibility, progression, and treatment response, aiding drug development and personalized medicine. However, developing and implementing biomarkers come with challenges that must be addressed. Rigorous testing, standardization of assays, and consideration of ethical factors are crucial in ensuring the reliability and validity of biomarkers. Reliability is vital in biomarker research. It ensures accurate measurements by preventing biases and facilitating robust correlations with outcomes. Conversely, validation examines which and how many biomarkers correspond to theoretical constructs and external criteria, establishing their predictive value. Multiple biomarkers are sometimes necessary to represent the complex relationship between exposure and disease outcomes accurately. Susceptibility factors are pivotal in disease states' complex interaction among genetic and environmental factors. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of these factors is essential for effectively interpreting biomarker data and maximizing their clinical usefulness. Using well-validated biomarkers can improve diagnoses, more effective treatment evaluations, and enhanced disease prediction. This, in turn, will contribute to better patient outcomes and drive progress in medicine.

Urinary beta-2 microglobulin increases whereas TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 decline after unilateral nephrectomy in healthy kidney donors.

Early kidney injury may be detected by urinary markers, such as beta-2 microglobulin (B2M), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-2 (TIMP-2), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7 (IGFBP7), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) and/or neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL). Of these biomarkers information on pathophysiology and reference ranges in both healthy and diseased populations are scarce. Differences in urinary levels of B2M, TIMP-2, IGFBP7, KIM-1 and NGAL were compared 24 h before and after nephrectomy in 38 living kidney donors from the REnal Protection Against Ischaemia-Reperfusion in transplantation study. Linear regression was used to assess the relation between baseline biomarker concentration and kidney function 1 year after nephrectomy. Median levels of urinary creatinine and creatinine standardized B2M, TIMP-2, IGFBP7, KIM-1, NGAL, and albumin 24 h before nephrectomy in donors were 9.4 mmol/L, 14 µg/mmol, 16 pmol/mmol, 99 pmol/mmol, 63 ng/mmol, 1390 ng/mmol and 0.7 mg/mmol, with median differences 24 h after nephrectomy of - 0.9, + 1906, - 7.1, - 38.3, - 6.9, + 2378 and + 1.2, respectively. The change of donor eGFR after 12 months per SD increment at baseline of B2M, TIMP-2, IGFBP7, KIM-1 and NGAL was: - 1.1, - 2.3, - 0.7, - 1.6 and - 2.8, respectively. Urinary TIMP-2 and IGFBP7 excretion halved after nephrectomy, similar to urinary creatinine, suggesting these markers predominantly reflect glomerular filtration. B2M and NGAL excretion increased significantly, similar to albumin, indicating decreased proximal tubular reabsorption following nephrectomy. KIM-1 did not change considerably after nephrectomy. Even though none of these biomarkers showed a strong relation with long-term donor eGFR, these results provide valuable insight into the pathophysiology of these urinary biomarkers.

Effect of absolute blood volume measurement-guided fluid management on the incidence of intradialytic hypotension-associated events: a randomised controlled trial.

Background: Ultrafiltration to target weight during haemodialysis is complicated by intradialytic hypotension-associated adverse events (IHAAEs) in 10-30% of dialysis treatments. IHAAEs are caused by critical reductions in absolute blood volume (ABV), due to the interaction of ultrafiltration, refill and compensatory mechanisms. Non-randomised studies have suggested that ABV-guided treatment, using an indicator dilution technique employing the blood volume monitor on the dialysis machine, could reduce the incidence of IHAAEs. Methods: We performed an open-label randomised controlled trial. Patients were randomly assigned to adjustment of target weight guided by ABV measurements or standard care. The primary outcome was the change in the incidence of IHAAEs from baseline, defined as the percentage of treatment episodes in a 4-week period where the patient had a systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg or symptoms of impending hypotension. ABV measurements were compared with anthropomorphometric estimation and the gold standard using isotope dilution. Results: A total of 56 patients were randomised, of whom 29 were allocated to ABV-guided treatment and 27 to standard care. Overall baseline incidence of IHAAEs was 26.0%. ABV-guided treatment significantly reduced the incidence of IHAAEs compared with standard care, with a mean change from baseline of -9.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) -17.3 to -1.8) versus 2.4% (95% CI -2.3-7.2). The adjusted difference between the groups was 10.5% (95% CI 1.3-19.8; P = .026). ABV measurement had moderate agreement with other methods to estimate blood volume. The sensitivity for the previously suggested threshold of a post-dialysis normalised blood volume of 65 ml/kg was observed to be 74% in this study. Conclusions: ABV-guided volume management significantly reduced IHAAEs compared with standard care. The clinical relevance of the previously suggested threshold of 65 ml/kg cannot be firmly concluded on the basis of our results. If confirmed in a larger trial, this intervention could potentially change dialysis practice and impact patient care in a clinically meaningful way.

Hypertension and diabetes, but not leptin and adiponectin, mediate the relationship between body fat and chronic kidney disease.

PURPOSE: Obesity may promote kidney damage through hemodynamic and hormonal effects. We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI), total body fat (TBF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) and whether hypertension, diabetes, leptin and adiponectin mediated these associations. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis of the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study, 6671 participants (45-65 y) were included. We defined CKD as eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and/or moderately increased albuminuria. The percentage of mediation was calculated using general structural equation modeling, adjusted for potential confounding factors age, sex, smoking, ethnicity, physical activity and Dutch healthy diet index. RESULTS: At baseline mean (SD) age was 56 (6), BMI 26.3 (4.4), 44% men, and 4% had CKD. Higher BMI and TBF were associated with 1.08 (95%CI 1.05; 1.11) and 1.05-fold (95%CI 1.02; 1.08) increased odds of CKD, respectively. As adiponectin was not associated with any of the outcomes, it was not studied further as a mediating factor. The association between BMI and CKD was 8.5% (95%CI 0.5; 16.5) mediated by diabetes and 22.3% (95%CI 7.5; 37.2) by hypertension. In addition, the association between TBF and CKD was 9.6% (95%CI -0.4; 19.6) mediated by diabetes and 22.4% (95%CI 4.2; 40.6) by hypertension. We could not confirm mediation by leptin in the association between BMI and CKD (35.6% [95%CI -18.8; 90.3]), nor between TBF and CKD (59.7% [95%CI -7.1; 126.6]). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the relations between BMI, TBF and CKD are in part mediated by diabetes and hypertension.

The safety of a low protein diet in older adults with advanced chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: A low protein diet (LPD) is recommended to patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), whereas geriatric guidelines recommend a higher amount of protein. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety of LPD treatment in older adults with advanced CKD. METHODS: The EQUAL study is a prospective, observational study, including patients ≥65 years, incident estimated glomerular filtration rate <20 ml/min/1.73m², in six European countries with follow-up up till six years. Nutritional status was assessed by 7-point subjective global assessment (SGA) every 3-6 months. Prescribed diet (gram protein/kilogram/bodyweight) was recorded on every study visit; measured protein intake was available in three countries. Time to death and decline in nutritional status (SGA decrease by ≥2 points) were analysed using marginal structural models with dynamic inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights. RESULTS: Out of 1738 adults (631 prescribed LPD at any point during follow-up) there were 1319 with repeated SGA measurements of which 267 (20%) declined in SGA ≥ 2 points and 565 (32.5%) died. There was no difference in survival or decline in nutritional status for patients prescribed LPD ≤0.8 g/kg ideal bodyweight (Odds Ratio (OR) for mortality 1.15 (95% Confidence interval (CI) 0.86-1.55) and OR for decline in SGA 1.11 (95% CI 0.74-1.66) in the adjusted models. In patients prescribed LPD <0.6 g/kg ideal bodyweight, the results were similar. There was a significant interaction with LPD and higher age >75 years, lower SGA, and higher comorbidity burden for both mortality and nutritional status decline. CONCLUSIONS: In older adults with CKD approaching end-stage kidney disease, a traditional LPD prescribed and monitored according to routine clinical practice in Europe appears to be safe.

Clinical impact of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation for vascular access planning.

BACKGROUND: Risk-based thresholds for arteriovenous (AV) access creation has been proposed to aid vascular access planning. We aimed to assess the clinical impact of implementing the kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) for vascular access referral. METHODS: 16,102 nephrology-referred chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients from the Swedish Renal Registry 2008-2018 were included. The KFRE was calculated repeatedly, and the timing was identified for when the KFRE risk exceeded several pre-defined thresholds and/or the estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 ml/min/1.73m2 (eGFR15). To assess the utility of the KFRE/eGFR thresholds, cumulative incidence curves of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) or death, and decision-curve analyses were computed at 6, 12 months, and 2 years. The potential impact of using the different thresholds was illustrated by an example from the Swedish access registry. RESULTS: The 12-month specificity for KRT initiation was highest for KFRE>50% 94.5 (95% Confidence interval [CI] 94.3-94.7), followed by KFRE>40% 90.0 (95% CI 89.7-90.3), while sensitivity was highest for KFRE>30% 79.3 (95% CI 78.2-80.3) and eGFR<15 ml/min/1.73m2 81.2 (95% CI 80.2-82.2). The 2-year positive predictive value was 71.5 (95% CI 70.2-72.8), 61.7 (95% CI 60.4-63.0) and 47.2 (95% CI 46.1-48.3) for KFRE>50%, KFRE>40%, and eGFR<15 respectively. Decision curve analyses suggested the largest net benefit for KFRE>40% over two years and KFRE>50% over 12 months when it is important to avoid the harm of possibly unnecessary surgery. In Sweden, 54% of nephrology-referred patients started hemodialysis in a central venous catheter (CVC) of which only 5% had AV access surgery >6 months before initiation. 60% of the CVC patients exceeded KFRE>40% a median of 0.8 years (interquartile range 0.4-1.5) before KRT initiation. CONCLUSIONS: The utility of using KFRE>40% and KFRE>50% is higher compared to the more traditionally used eGFR threshold <15 ml/min/1.73m2 for vascular access planning.

Does 'summative' count? The influence of the awarding of study credits on feedback use and test-taking motivation in medical progress testing.

Despite the increasing implementation of formative assessment in medical education, its' effect on learning behaviour remains questionable. This effect may depend on how students value formative, and summative assessments differently. Informed by Expectancy Value Theory, we compared test preparation, feedback use, and test-taking motivation of medical students who either took a purely formative progress test (formative PT-group) or a progress test that yielded study credits (summative PT-group). In a mixed-methods study design, we triangulated quantitative questionnaire data (n = 264), logging data of an online PT feedback system (n = 618), and qualitative interview data (n = 21) to compare feedback use, and test-taking motivation between the formative PT-group (n = 316), and the summative PT-group (n = 302). Self-reported, and actual feedback consultation was higher in the summative PT-group. Test preparation, and active feedback use were relatively low and similar in both groups. Both quantitative, and qualitative results showed that the motivation to prepare and consult feedback relates to how students value the assessment. In the interview data, a link could be made with goal orientation theory, as performance-oriented students perceived the formative PT as not important due to the lack of study credits. This led to low test-taking effort, and feedback consultation after the formative PT. In contrast, learning-oriented students valued the formative PT, and used it for self-study or self-assessment to gain feedback. Our results indicate that most students are less motivated to put effort in the test, and use feedback when there are no direct consequences. A supportive assessment environment that emphasizes recognition of the value of formative testing is required to motivate students to use feedback for learning.

Protein Biomarkers and Major Cardiovascular Events in Older People With Advanced CKD: The European Quality (EQUAL) Study.

Rationale & Objective: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We investigated 184 inflammatory and cardiovascular proteins to determine their potential as biomarkers for major cardiovascular events (MACEs). Study Design: The European Quality (EQUAL) is an observational cohort study that enrolled people aged ≥65 years with an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤20 mL/min/1.73 m2. Setting & Participants: Recruited participants were split into the discovery (n = 611) and replication cohorts (n = 292). Exposure: Levels of 184 blood proteins were measured at the baseline visit, and each protein was analyzed individually. Outcome: MACE. Analytical Approach: Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, previous MACE, and country were used to determine the risk of MACE. Proteins with false discovery rate adjusted P values of <0.05 in the discovery cohort were tested in the replication cohort. Sensitivity analyses were performed by adjusting for traditional risk factors, CKD-specific risk factors, and level of proteinuria and segregating atherosclerotic and nonatherosclerotic MACE. Results: During a median follow-up of 2.9 years, 349 people (39%) experienced a MACE. Forty-eight proteins were associated with MACE in the discovery cohort; 9 of these were reproduced in the replication cohort. Three of these proteins maintained a strong association with MACE after adjustment for traditional and CKD-specific risk factors and proteinuria. Tenascin (TNC), fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23), and V-set and immunoglobulin domain-containing protein 2 (VSIG2) were associated with both atherosclerotic and nonatherosclerotic MACE. All replicated proteins except carbonic anhydrase 1 and carbonic anhydrase 3 were associated with nonatherosclerotic MACE. Limitations: Single protein concentration measurements and limited follow-up time. Conclusions: Our findings corroborate previously reported relationships between FGF-23, vascular cell adhesion protein-1, TNC, and placental growth factor with cardiovascular outcomes in CKD. We identify 5 proteins not previously linked with MACE in CKD that may be targets for future therapies. Plain-Language Summary: Kidney disease increases the risk of heart disease, stroke, and other vascular conditions. Blood tests that predict the likelihood of these problems may help to guide treatment, but studies are needed in people with kidney disease. We analyzed blood tests from older people with kidney disease, looking for proteins associated with higher risk of these conditions. Nine proteins were identified, of which 3 showed a strong effect after all other information was considered. This work supports previous research regarding 4 of these proteins and identifies 5 additional proteins that may be associated with higher risk. Further work is needed to confirm our findings and to determine whether these proteins can be used to guide treatment.

FLOW: Flow dysfunction of hemodialysis vascular access: A randomized controlled trial on the effectiveness of surveillance of arteriovenous fistulas and grafts.

INTRODUCTION: It is assumed that identification and correction of asymptomatic stenoses in the vascular access circuit will prevent thrombosis that would require urgent intervention to continue hemodialysis treatment. However, the evidence base for this assumption is limited. Recent international clinical practice guidelines reach different conclusions on the use of surveillance for vascular access flow dysfunction and recommend further research to inform clinical practice. METHODS: The FLOW trial is a double-blind, multicenter, randomized controlled trial with a 1:1 individual participant treatment allocation ratio over two study arms. In the intervention group, only symptomatic vascular access stenoses detected by clinical monitoring are treated, whereas in the comparison group asymptomatic stenoses detected by surveillance using monthly dilution flow measurements are treated as well. Hemodialysis patients with a functional arteriovenous vascular access are enrolled. The primary outcome is the access-related intervention rate that will be analyzed using a general linear model with Poisson distribution. Secondary outcomes include patient satisfaction, access-related serious adverse events, and quality of the surveillance process. A cost effectiveness analysis and budget impact analysis will also be conducted. The study requires 828 patient-years of follow-up in 417 participants to detect a difference of 0.25 access-related interventions per year between study groups. DISCUSSION: As one of the largest randomized controlled trials assessing the clinical impact of vascular access surveillance using a strong double-blinded study design, we believe the FLOW trial will provide much-needed evidence to improve vascular access care for hemodialysis patients.

Accuracy of GFR estimating equations based on creatinine, cystatin C or both in routine care.

BACKGROUND: New equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate based on creatinine (eGFRcr), cystatin C (eGFRcys) or both (eGFRcr-cys) have been developed by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and the European Kidney Function Consortium (EKFC). There is a need to evaluate the performance of these equations in diverse European settings to inform implementation decisions, especially among people with key comorbid conditions. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study including 6174 adults referred for single-point plasma clearance of iohexol in Stockholm, Sweden, with 9579 concurrent measurements of creatinine and cystatin C. We assessed the performance of the CKD-EPI 2009/2012/2021, EKFC 2021/2023, revised Lund-Malmö (RLM) 2011 and Caucasian, Asian, Pediatric and Adult (CAPA) 2014 equations against measured GFR (mGFR). RESULTS: Mean age was 56 years, median mGFR was 62 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 40% were female. Comorbid conditions were common: cardiovascular disease (30%), liver disease (28%), diabetes (26%) and cancer (26%). All eGFRcr-cys equations had small bias and P30 (the percentage of estimated values within 30% of mGFR) close to 90%, and performed better than eGFRcr or eGFRcys equations. Among eGFRcr equations, CKD-EPI 2009 and CKD-EPI 2021 showed larger bias and lower P30 than EKFC 2021 and RLM. There were no meaningful differences in performance across eGFRcys equations. Findings were consistent across comorbid conditions, and eGFRcr-cys equations showed good performance in patients with liver disease, cancer and heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, eGFRcr-cys equations performed best, with minimal variation among equations in this Swedish cohort. The lower performance of CKD-EPI eGFRcr equations compared with EKFC and RLM may reflect differences in population characteristics and mGFR methods. Implementing eGFRcr equations will require a trade-off between accuracy and uniformity across regions.

Health-related quality of life and symptom burden in patients on haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients on haemodialysis (HD) generally experience poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and a broad range of physical and mental symptoms, but it is unknown whether this differs between younger and older patients. We aimed to describe the trajectories of HRQoL and symptom burden of patients <70 and ≥70 years old and to assess the impact of symptom burden on HRQoL. METHODS: In incident Dutch HD patients, HRQoL and symptoms were measured with the 12-item Short Form Health Survey and Dialysis Symptom Index. We used linear mixed models for examining the trajectories of HRQoL and symptom burden during the first year of dialysis and linear regression for the impact of symptom burden on HRQoL. RESULTS: In 774 patients, the trajectories of physical HRQoL, mental HRQoL and symptom burden were stable during the first year of dialysis. Compared with patients <70 years of age, patients ≥70 years reported similar physical HRQoL {mean difference -0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI) -1.86-0.63]}, better mental HRQoL [1.77 (95% CI 0.54-3.01)] and lower symptom burden [-2.38 (95% CI -5.08-0.32)]. With increasing symptom burden, physical HRQoL declined more in older than in younger patients (ß = -0.287 versus -0.189, respectively; P-value for interaction = .007). For mental HRQoL, this decrease was similar in both age groups (ß = -0.295 versus -0.288, P = .847). CONCLUSION: Older HD patients generally experience a better mental HRQoL and a (non-statistically significant) lower symptom burden compared with younger patients. Their physical HRQoL declines more rapidly with increasing symptom burden.

Exploring Patients' Perceptions About Chronic Kidney Disease and Their Treatment: A Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Unhelpful illness perceptions can be changed by means of interventions and can lead to improved outcomes. However, little is known about illness perceptions in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) prior to kidney failure, and no tools exist in nephrology care to identify and support patients with unhelpful illness perceptions. Therefore, this study aims to: (1) identify meaningful and modifiable illness perceptions in patients with CKD prior to kidney failure; and (2) explore needs and requirements for identifying and supporting patients with unhelpful illness perceptions in nephrology care from patients' and healthcare professionals' perspectives. METHODS: Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted with purposive heterogeneous samples of Dutch patients with CKD (n = 17) and professionals (n = 10). Transcripts were analysed using a hybrid inductive and deductive approach: identified themes from the thematic analysis were hereafter organized according to Common-Sense Model of Self-Regulation principles. RESULTS: Illness perceptions considered most meaningful are related to the seriousness (illness identity, consequences, emotional response and illness concern) and manageability (illness coherence, personal control and treatment control) of CKD. Over time, patients developed more unhelpful seriousness-related illness perceptions and more helpful manageability-related illness perceptions, caused by: CKD diagnosis, disease progression, healthcare support and approaching kidney replacement therapy. Implementing tools to identify and discuss patients' illness perceptions was considered important, after which support for patients with unhelpful illness perceptions should be offered. Special attention should be paid towards structurally embedding psychosocial educational support for patients and caregivers to deal with CKD-related symptoms, consequences, emotions and concerns about the future. CONCLUSIONS: Several meaningful and modifiable illness perceptions do not change for the better by means of nephrology care. This underlines the need to identify and openly discuss illness perceptions and to support patients with unhelpful illness perceptions. Future studies should investigate whether implementing illness perception-based tools will indeed improve outcomes in CKD.

Prognostic Models in Nephrology: Where Do We Stand and Where Do We Go from Here? Mapping Out the Evidence in a Scoping Review.

Prognostic models can strongly support individualized care provision and well-informed shared decision making. There has been an upsurge of prognostic research in the field of nephrology, but the uptake of prognostic models in clinical practice remains limited. Therefore, we map out the research field of prognostic models for kidney patients and provide directions on how to proceed from here. We performed a scoping review of studies developing, validating, or updating a prognostic model for patients with CKD. We searched all published models in PubMed and Embase and report predicted outcomes, methodological quality, and validation and/or updating efforts. We found 602 studies, of which 30.1% concerned CKD populations, 31.6% dialysis populations, and 38.4% kidney transplantation populations. The most frequently predicted outcomes were mortality ( n =129), kidney disease progression ( n =75), and kidney graft survival ( n =54). Most studies provided discrimination measures (80.4%), but much less showed calibration results (43.4%). Of the 415 development studies, 28.0% did not perform any validation and 57.6% performed only internal validation. Moreover, only 111 models (26.7%) were externally validated either in the development study itself or in an independent external validation study. Finally, in 45.8% of development studies no useable version of the model was reported. To conclude, many prognostic models have been developed for patients with CKD, mainly for outcomes related to kidney disease progression and patient/graft survival. To bridge the gap between prediction research and kidney patient care, patient-reported outcomes, methodological rigor, complete reporting of prognostic models, external validation, updating, and impact assessment urgently need more attention.

The impact of gender on the risk of cardiovascular events in older adults with advanced chronic kidney disease.

Background: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at a higher risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) compared with the general population, but gender differences in this risk, especially in older adults, are not fully known. We aim to identify gender differences in the risk of MACE in older European CKD patients, and explore factors that may explain these differences. Methods: The European Quality study (EQUAL) is a prospective study on stage 4-5 CKD patients, ≥65 years old, not on dialysis, from Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK. Cox regression and cumulative incidence competing risk curves were used to identify gender differences in MACE risks. Mediation analysis was used to identify variables which may explain risk differences between men and women. Results: A total of 417 men out of 1134 (37%) and 185 women out of 602 women (31%) experienced at least one MACE, over a follow-up period of 5 years. Women had an 18% lower risk of first MACE compared with men (hazard ratio 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.97; P = .02), which was attenuated after adjusting for pre-existing cardiometabolic comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors. There were no significant gender differences in the risk of recurrent MACE or fatal MACE. The risk difference in MACE by gender was larger in patients aged 65-75 years, compared with patients over 75 years. Conclusions: In a cohort of older adults with advanced CKD, women had lower risks of MACE. These risk differences were partially explained by pre-existing cardiometabolic comorbidities and cardiovascular risk factors.