Effects of alpha-glucosidase-inhibiting drugs on acute postprandial glucose and insulin responses: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Despite considerable literature supporting the potential health benefits of reducing postprandial glucose (PPG), and insulin (PPI) exposures, the size of a clinically relevant reduction is currently unknown. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify effects of alpha-glucosidase-inhibiting (AGI) drugs on acute PPG and PPI responses. METHODS: We searched EMBASE and MEDLINE until March 13, 2018 for controlled studies using AGI drugs together with a standardized carbohydrate load or mixed meal. The mean incremental PPG and PPI levels were calculated as outcomes. Meta-analyses, stratified by diabetes state, were performed by using random effects models. RESULTS: The 66 included publications comprised 127 drug-control comparisons for PPG, and 106 for PPI, mostly testing acarbose or miglitol. The absolute effects on PPG were larger among individuals with diabetes (-1.5 mmol/l mean PPG [95% CI -1.9, -1.1] by acarbose, and -1.6 [-1.9, -1.4] by miglitol) as compared to individuals without diabetes (-0.4 [95% CI -0.5, -0.3] by acarbose, and -0.6 [-0.8, -0.4] by miglitol). Relative reductions in PPG by both drugs were similar for diabetic and non-diabetic individuals (43-54%). Acarbose and miglitol also significantly reduced mean PPI, with absolute and relative reductions being largest among individuals without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The present meta-analyses provide quantitative estimates of reductions of PPG and PPI responses by AGI drugs in diabetes and non-diabetic individuals. These data can serve as benchmarks for clinically relevant reductions in PPG and PPI via drug or diet and lifestyle interventions.

Cardiovascular Event Risk in Rheumatoid Arthritis Compared with Type 2 Diabetes: A 15-year Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) risk is increased in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, longterm followup studies investigating this risk are scarce. METHODS: The CARRÉ (CARdiovascular research and RhEumatoid arthritis) study is a prospective cohort study investigating CVD and its risk factors in 353 patients with longstanding RA. CV endpoints were assessed at baseline and 3, 10, and 15 years after the start of the study and are compared to a reference cohort (n = 2540), including a large number of patients with type 2 diabetes (DM). RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with RA developed a CV event over 2973 person-years, resulting in an incidence rate of 3.20 per 100 person-years. Two hundred fifty-seven CV events were reported in the reference cohort during 18,874 person-years, resulting in an incidence rate of 1.36 per 100 person-years. Age- and sex-adjusted HR for CV events were increased for RA (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.57-2.72, p < 0.01) and DM (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.02-2.22, p = 0.04) compared to the nondiabetic participants. HR was still increased in RA (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.32-2.50, p < 0.01) after additional adjustment for CV risk factors. Patients with both RA and DM or insulin resistance had the highest HR for developing CVD (2.21, 95% CI 1.01-4.80, p = 0.046 and 2.67, 95% CI 1.30-5.46, p < 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of CV events in established RA was more than double that of the general population. Patients with RA have an even higher risk of CVD than patients with DM. This risk remained after adjustment for traditional CV risk factors, suggesting that systemic inflammation is an independent contributor to CV risk.

A prospective study on glucagon responses to oral glucose and mixed meal and 7-year change in fasting glucose.

INTRODUCTION: The role of insufficient glucagon suppression after an oral load in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the association between glucagon responses at baseline and fasting glucose levels 7 years later. METHODS: Data of the Hoorn Meal Study were used, an observational cohort study among 121 persons without diabetes with a mean age of 61.1 ± 6.7 years and 50% being female. The glucagon response to an oral glucose tolerance test and mixed meal test was expressed as early and late incremental area under the curve. The association with change in fasting glucose levels at follow-up was assessed by linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The early glucagon response following the mixed meal test was associated with an increase in fasting glucose levels of 0.18 mmol/L (95%-CI: 0.04-0.31, P = 0.01), per unit increase in the incremental area under the curve of glucagon, adjusted for confounders. No significant associations were observed for the late response after the mixed meal test or oral glucose tolerance test. CONCLUSIONS: Within a population without diabetes, relative lack of glucagon suppression early after a meal was associated with increased glucose levels over time, suggesting a role of insufficient glucagon suppression in the deterioration of glycaemic control.

Blood Metabolomic Measures Associate With Present and Future Glycemic Control in Type 2 Diabetes.

Objective: We studied whether blood metabolomic measures in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are associated with insufficient glycemic control and whether this association is influenced differentially by various diabetes drugs. We then tested whether the same metabolomic profiles were associated with the initiation of insulin therapy. Methods: A total of 162 metabolomic measures were analyzed using a nuclear magnetic resonance-based method in people with T2D from four cohort studies (n = 2641) and one replication cohort (n = 395). Linear and logistic regression analyses with adjustment for potential confounders, followed by meta-analyses, were performed to analyze associations with hemoglobin A1c levels, six glucose-lowering drug categories, and insulin initiation during a 7-year follow-up period (n = 698). Results: After Bonferroni correction, 26 measures were associated with insufficient glycemic control (HbA1c >53 mmol/mol). The strongest association was with glutamine (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.73; P = 7.6 × 10-19). In addition, compared with treatment-naive patients, 31 metabolomic measures were associated with glucose-lowering drug use (representing various metabolite categories; P ≤ 3.1 × 10-4 for all). In drug-stratified analyses, associations with insufficient glycemic control were only mildly affected by different glucose-lowering drugs. Five of the 26 metabolomic measures (apolipoprotein A1 and medium high-density lipoprotein subclasses) were also associated with insulin initiation during follow-up in both discovery and replication. The strongest association was observed for medium high-density lipoprotein cholesteryl ester (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.71; P = 4.5 × 10-6). Conclusion: Blood metabolomic measures were associated with present and future glycemic control and might thus provide relevant cues to identify those at increased risk of treatment failure.

Association of changes in inflammation with variation in glycaemia, insulin resistance and secretion based on the KORA study.

AIMS: Subclinical systemic inflammation may contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes, but its association with early progression of glycaemic deterioration in persons without diabetes has not been fully investigated. Our primary aim was to assess longitudinal associations of changes in pro-inflammatory (leukocytes, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP)) and anti-inflammatory (adiponectin) markers with changes in markers that assessed glycaemia, insulin resistance, and secretion (HbA1c , HOMA-IR, and HOMA-ß). Furthermore, we aimed to directly compare longitudinal with cross-sectional associations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study includes 819 initially nondiabetic individuals with repeated measurements from the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4/F4 cohort study (median follow-up: 7.1 years). Longitudinal and cross-sectional associations were simultaneously examined using linear mixed growth models. Changes in markers of inflammation were used as independent and changes in markers of glycaemia/insulin resistance/insulin secretion as dependent variables. Models were adjusted for age, sex, major lifestyle and metabolic risk factors for diabetes using time-varying variables in the final model. RESULTS: Changes of leukocyte count were positively associated with changes in HbA1c and HOMA-ß while changes in adiponectin were inversely associated with changes in HbA1c . All examined cross-sectional associations were statistically significant; they were generally stronger and mostly directionally consistent to the longitudinal association estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse changes in low-grade systemic inflammation go along with glycaemic deterioration and increased insulin secretion independently of changes in other risk factors, suggesting that low-grade inflammation may contribute to the development of hyperglycaemia and a compensatory increase in insulin secretion.

High Diabetes Distress Among Ethnic Minorities Is Not Explained by Metabolic, Cardiovascular, or Lifestyle Factors: Findings From the Dutch Diabetes Pearl Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes distress among patients from ethnic minorities is still poorly understood. We investigated the association between ethnicity and diabetes distress among ethnic minority groups of people with type 2 diabetes in the Netherlands, focusing on the possible effects of glycemic control, lifestyle factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and diabetes complications. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional data from the Dutch Diabetes Pearl cohort included people with type 2 diabetes from primary, secondary, and tertiary diabetes care programs. We used the 20-item Problem Areas in Diabetes Survey (PAID) scale to assess diabetes distress; a score ≥40 is considered to represent high distress. Ethnicity was estimated on the basis of country of birth. Sociodemographic and lifestyle data were self-reported; cardiovascular and metabolic data were retrieved from medical charts. Logistic regression analysis determined the association between ethnicity and diabetes distress, with Caucasians as the reference group. RESULTS: Diabetes distress scores and ethnicity were available for 4,191 people with type 2 diabetes: 3,684 were Caucasian, 83 were Asian, 51 were Moroccan, 92 were African, 134 were Latin American, 46 were Turkish, and 101 were Hindustani-Surinamese. Overall, participants in minority groups had worse health outcomes than those of Caucasian descent, and diabetes distress was more prevalent (ranging from 9.6 to 31.7%, compared with 5.8% among Caucasians), even after adjusting for age, sex, education level, alcohol use, smoking, BMI, lipid profile, HbA1c, medication use, and the presence of diabetes complications. CONCLUSIONS: Among people with type 2 diabetes in the Netherlands, ethnicity is independently associated with high diabetes distress. Further research is warranted to explain the higher prevalence of diabetes distress in minority groups and to develop effective interventions.

Pathophysiological Characteristics Underlying Different Glucose Response Curves: A Latent Class Trajectory Analysis From the Prospective EGIR-RISC Study.

OBJECTIVE: Glucose measurements during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) are useful in predicting diabetes and its complications. However, knowledge of the pathophysiology underlying differences in glucose curve shapes is sparse. We examined the pathophysiological characteristics that create different glucose curve patterns and studied their stability and reproducibility over 3 years of follow-up. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data from participants without diabetes from the observational cohort from the European Group for the Study of Insulin Resistance: Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular Disease study; participants had a five-time point OGTT at baseline (n = 1,443) and after 3 years (n = 1,045). Measures of insulin sensitivity and secretion were assessed at baseline with a euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp and intravenous glucose tolerance test. Heterogeneous glucose response patterns during the OGTT were identified using latent class trajectory analysis at baseline and at follow-up. Transitions between classes were analyzed with multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: We identified four different glucose response patterns, which differed with regard to insulin sensitivity and acute insulin response, obesity, and plasma levels of lipids and inflammatory markers. Some of these associations were confirmed prospectively. Time to glucose peak was driven mainly by insulin sensitivity, whereas glucose peak size was related to both insulin sensitivity and secretion. The glucose patterns identified at follow-up were similar to those at baseline, suggesting that the latent class method is robust. We integrated our classification model into an easy-to-use online application that facilitates the assessment of glucose curve patterns for other studies. CONCLUSIONS: The latent class analysis approach is a pathophysiologically insightful way to classify individuals without diabetes based on their response to glucose during an OGTT.

Renal function markers and insulin sensitivity after 3 years in a healthy cohort, the EGIR-RISC study.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic renal disease are insulin resistant. We hypothesized that in a healthy population, baseline renal function is associated with insulin sensitivity three years later. METHODS: We studied 405 men and 528 women from the European Group for the study of Insulin Resistance - Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular disease cohort. Renal function was characterized by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and by the urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR). At baseline only, insulin sensitivity was quantified using a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp; at baseline and three years, we used surrogate measures: the Matsuda insulin sensitivity index (ISI), the HOmeostasis Model Assessment of Insulin Sensitivity (HOMA-IS). Associations between renal function and insulin sensitivity were studied cross-sectionally and longitudinally. RESULTS: In men at baseline, no associations were seen with eGFR, but there was some evidence of a positive association with UACR. In women, all insulin sensitivity indices showed the same negative trend across eGFR classes, albeit not always statistically significant; for UACR, women with values above the limit of detection, had higher clamp measured insulin sensitivity than other women. After three years, in men only, ISI and HOMA-IS showed a U-shaped relation with baseline eGFR; women with eGFR> 105 ml/min/1.73m2 had a significantly higher insulin sensitivity than the reference group (eGFR: 90-105 ml/min/1.73m2). For both men and women, year-3 insulin sensitivity was higher in those with higher baseline UACR. All associations were attenuated after adjusting on significant covariates. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence to support our hypothesis that markers of poorer renal function are associated with declining insulin sensitivity in our healthy population.

Circulating Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids as Biomarkers for Dietary Intake across Subgroups: The CODAM and Hoorn Studies.

AIMS: To evaluate whether participant characteristics and way of expressing circulating fatty acids (FA) influence the strengths of associations between self-reported intake and circulating levels of linoleic acid (LA), alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses were performed in pooled data from the CODAM (n = 469) and Hoorn (n = 702) studies. Circulating FA were measured by gas liquid chromatography and expressed as proportions (% of total FA) and concentrations (µg/mL). Dietary intakes were calculated from a validated food frequency questionnaire. Effects of participant characteristics on associations between dietary and circulating FA were calculated using interaction analyses. RESULTS: Standardized regression coefficients between dietary FA and proportions of circulating FA (% of total FA) were LA ß = 0.28, ALA ß = 0.13, EPA ß = 0.34, and DHA ß = 0.45. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and presence of CVD influenced associations for LA; gender influenced LA, EPA, and DHA; alcohol intake influenced LA and DHA; and glucose tolerance status influenced ALA (p values interaction <0.05). Coefficients for circulating FA as concentrations were LA ß = 0.19, ALA ß = 0.10, EPA ß = 0.31, and DHA ß = 0.41. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that characteristics such as BMI, alcohol intake, and expressing circulating FA as proportions or concentrations, influence associations between dietary and circulating FA.

Determinants of occurrence and survival after sudden cardiac arrest-A European perspective: The ESCAPE-NET project.

AIMS: The ESCAPE-NET project ("European Sudden Cardiac Arrest network- towards Prevention, Education and New Effective Treatments") aims to study: (1) risk factors and mechanisms for the occurrence of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in the population, and (2) risk factors and treatment strategies for survival after SCA on a European scale. METHODS: This is an Horizon2020 funded program of the European Union, performed by a European public-private consortium of 16 partners across 10 EU countries. There are 11 deep-phenotyped SCA cohorts for the study of risk factors and treatment strategies for survival after SCA, and 5 deep-phenotyped observational prospective population cohorts for the study of risk factors for occurrence of SCA. Personalized risk scores for predicting SCA onset and for predicting survival after SCA will be derived and validated. RESULTS: The 11 clinical studies with SCA cases comprise 85,790 SCA cases; the 5 observational prospective population cohorts include 53,060 subjects. A total of 15,000 SCA samples will be genotyped for common and rare variants at the Helmholtz Zentrum München (Germany) using the Illumina Global Screening Array which contains > 770,000 SNPs, and after imputation, a database of an estimated > 9 million variants will be available for genome wide association studies. Standardization of risk factors definition and outcomes is ongoing. An Executive Committee has been created along with a Collaboration Policy document. CONCLUSION: ESCAPE-NET will complement ongoing efforts on SCA outside Europe and within Europe including the EuReCa project.

External Validation of a Tool Predicting 7-Year Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease, Type 2 Diabetes or Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD), share many modifiable risk factors and can be prevented using combined prevention programs. Valid risk prediction tools are needed to accurately identify individuals at risk. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously developed non-invasive risk prediction tool for predicting the combined 7-year-risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases. DESIGN: The previously developed tool is stratified for sex and contains the predictors age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensives, smoking, family history of myocardial infarction/stroke, and family history of diabetes. This tool was externally validated, evaluating model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)-assessing discrimination-and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics-assessing calibration. The intercept was recalibrated to improve calibration performance. PARTICIPANTS: The risk prediction tool was validated in 3544 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). KEY RESULTS: Discrimination was acceptable, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.81) in men and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) in women. Calibration was poor (HL statistic: p < 0.001), but improved considerably after intercept recalibration. Examination of individual outcomes showed that in men, AUC was highest for CKD (0.85 [95% CI 0.78-0.91]) and lowest for T2D (0.69 [95% CI 0.65-0.74]). In women, AUC was highest for CVD (0.88 [95% CI 0.83-0.94)]) and lowest for T2D (0.71 [95% CI 0.66-0.75]). CONCLUSIONS: Validation of our previously developed tool showed robust discriminative performance across populations. Model recalibration is recommended to account for different disease rates. Our risk prediction tool can be useful in large-scale prevention programs for identifying those in need of further risk profiling because of their increased risk for chronic cardiometabolic diseases.

Size and shape of the associations of glucose, HbA1c, insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes: the Hoorn Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Glycaemic markers and fasting insulin are frequently measured outcomes of intervention studies. To extrapolate accurately the impact of interventions on the risk of diabetes incidence, we investigated the size and shape of the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h post-load glucose (2hPG), HbA1c, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The study population included 1349 participants aged 50-75 years without diabetes at baseline (1989) from a population-based cohort in Hoorn, the Netherlands. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined by the WHO 2011 criteria or known diabetes at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of the glycaemic markers, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes. Restricted cubic spline logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the shape of the associations. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up duration of 6.4 (SD 0.5) years, 152 participants developed diabetes (11.3%); the majority were screen detected by high FPG. In multivariate adjusted models, ORs (95% CI) for incident type 2 diabetes for the highest quintile in comparison with the lowest quintile were 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) for FPG, 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) for 2hPG, 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) for HbA1c, 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) for fasting insulin and 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) for HOMA-IR. The associations of FPG and HbA1c with incident diabetes were non-linear, rising more steeply at higher values. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: FPG was most strongly associated with incident diabetes, followed by 2hPG, HbA1c, HOMA-IR and fasting insulin. The strong association with FPG is probably because FPG is the most frequent marker for diabetes diagnosis. Non-linearity of associations between glycaemic markers and incident type 2 diabetes should be taken into account when estimating future risk of type 2 diabetes based on glycaemic markers.

The Hoorn Diabetes Care System (DCS) cohort. A prospective cohort of persons with type 2 diabetes treated in primary care in the Netherlands.

PURPOSE: People with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have a doubled morbidity and mortality risk compared with persons with normal glucose tolerance. Despite treatment, clinical targets for cardiovascular risk factors are not achieved. The Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort (DCS) is a prospective cohort representing a comprehensive dataset on the natural course of T2D, with repeated clinical measures and outcomes. In this paper, we describe the design of the DCS cohort. PARTICIPANTS: The DCS consists of persons with T2D in primary care from the West-Friesland region of the Netherlands. Enrolment in the cohort started in 1998 and this prospective dynamic cohort currently holds 12 673 persons with T2D. FINDINGS TO DATE: Clinical measures are collected annually, with a high internal validity due to the centrally organised standardised examinations. Microvascular complications are assessed by measuring kidney function, and screening feet and eyes. Information on cardiovascular disease is obtained by 1) self-report, 2) electrocardiography and 3) electronic patient records. In subgroups of the cohort, biobanking and additional measurements were performed to obtain information on, for example, lifestyle, depression and genomics. Finally, the DCS cohort is linked to national cancer and all-cause mortality registers. A selection of published findings from the DCS includes identification of subgroups with distinct development of haemoglobin A1c, blood pressure and retinopathy, and their predictors; validation of a prediction model for personalised retinopathy screening; the assessment of the role of genetics in development and treatment of T2D, providing options for personalised medicine. FUTURE PLANS: We will continue with the inclusion of persons with newly diagnosed T2D, follow-up of persons in the cohort and linkage to morbidity and mortality registries. Currently, we are involved in (inter)national projects on, among others, biomarkers and prediction models for T2D and complications and we are interested in collaborations with external researchers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN26257579.

The Association between Social Jetlag, the Metabolic Syndrome, and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the General Population: The New Hoorn Study.

Only a few studies have investigated the metabolic consequences of social jetlag. Therefore, we examined the association of social jetlag with the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population-based cohort. We used cross-sectional data from the New Hoorn Study cohort ( n = 1585, 47% men, age 60.8 ± 6 years). Social jetlag was calculated as the difference in midpoint sleep (in hours) between weekdays and weekend days. Poisson and linear regression models were used to study the associations, and age was regarded as a possible effect modifier. We adjusted for sex, employment status, education, smoking, physical activity, sleep duration, and body mass index. In the total population, we only observed an association between social jetlag and the metabolic syndrome, with prevalence ratios adjusted for sex, employment status, and educational levels of 1.64 (95% CI 1.1-2.4), for participants with >2 h social jetlag, compared with participants with <1 h social jetlag. However, we observed an interaction effect of median age (<61 years). In older participants (≥61 years), no significant associations were observed between social jetlag status, the metabolic syndrome, and diabetes or prediabetes. In the younger group (<61 years), the adjusted prevalence ratios were 1.29 (95% CI 0.9-1.9) and 2.13 (95% CI 1.3-3.4) for the metabolic syndrome and 1.39 (95% CI 1.1-1.9) and 1.75 (95% CI 1.2-2.5) for diabetes/prediabetes, for participants with 1-2 h and >2 h social jetlag, compared with participants with <1 h social jetlag. In conclusion, in our population-based cohort, social jetlag was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes/prediabetes, especially in younger (<61 years) participants.

Clustering of cardiovascular risk factors and carotid intima-media thickness: The USE-IMT study.

BACKGROUND: The relation of a single risk factor with atherosclerosis is established. Clinically we know of risk factor clustering within individuals. Yet, studies into the magnitude of the relation of risk factor clusters with atherosclerosis are limited. Here, we assessed that relation. METHODS: Individual participant data from 14 cohorts, involving 59,025 individuals were used in this cross-sectional analysis. We made 15 clusters of four risk factors (current smoking, overweight, elevated blood pressure, elevated total cholesterol). Multilevel age and sex adjusted linear regression models were applied to estimate mean differences in common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) between clusters using those without any of the four risk factors as reference group. RESULTS: Compared to the reference, those with 1, 2, 3 or 4 risk factors had a significantly higher common CIMT: mean difference of 0.026 mm, 0.052 mm, 0.074 mm and 0.114 mm, respectively. These findings were the same in men and in women, and across ethnic groups. Within each risk factor cluster (1, 2, 3 risk factors), groups with elevated blood pressure had the largest CIMT and those with elevated cholesterol the lowest CIMT, a pattern similar for men and women. CONCLUSION: Clusters of risk factors relate to increased common CIMT in a graded manner, similar in men, women and across race-ethnic groups. Some clusters seemed more atherogenic than others. Our findings support the notion that cardiovascular prevention should focus on sets of risk factors rather than individual levels alone, but may prioritize within clusters.

Vitamin D and mortality: Individual participant data meta-analysis of standardized 25-hydroxyvitamin D in 26916 individuals from a European consortium.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for mortality but previous meta-analyses lacked standardization of laboratory methods for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and used aggregate data instead of individual participant data (IPD). We therefore performed an IPD meta-analysis on the association between standardized serum 25(OH)D and mortality. METHODS: In a European consortium of eight prospective studies, including seven general population cohorts, we used the Vitamin D Standardization Program (VDSP) protocols to standardize 25(OH)D data. Meta-analyses using a one step procedure on IPD were performed to study associations of 25(OH)D with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome, and with cardiovascular and cancer mortality as secondary outcomes. This meta-analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02438488. FINDINGS: We analysed 26916 study participants (median age 61.6 years, 58% females) with a median 25(OH)D concentration of 53.8 nmol/L. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 6802 persons died. Compared to participants with 25(OH)D concentrations of 75 to 99.99 nmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) for mortality in the 25(OH)D groups with 40 to 49.99, 30 to 39.99, and <30 nmol/L were 1.15 (1.00-1.29), 1.33 (1.16-1.51), and 1.67 (1.44-1.89), respectively. We observed similar results for cardiovascular mortality, but there was no significant linear association between 25(OH)D and cancer mortality. There was also no significantly increased mortality risk at high 25(OH)D levels up to 125 nmol/L. INTERPRETATION: In the first IPD meta-analysis using standardized measurements of 25(OH)D we observed an association between low 25(OH)D and increased risk of all-cause mortality. It is of public health interest to evaluate whether treatment of vitamin D deficiency prevents premature deaths.

Predicting glycated hemoglobin levels in the non-diabetic general population: Development and validation of the DIRECT-DETECT prediction model - a DIRECT study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To develop a prediction model that can predict HbA1c levels after six years in the non-diabetic general population, including previously used readily available predictors. METHODS: Data from 5,762 initially non-diabetic subjects from three population-based cohorts (Hoorn Study, Inter99, KORA S4/F4) were combined to predict HbA1c levels at six year follow-up. Using backward selection, age, BMI, waist circumference, use of anti-hypertensive medication, current smoking and parental history of diabetes remained in sex-specific linear regression models. To minimize overfitting of coefficients, we performed internal validation using bootstrapping techniques. Explained variance, discrimination and calibration were assessed using R2, classification tables (comparing highest/lowest 50% HbA1c levels) and calibration graphs. The model was externally validated in 2,765 non-diabetic subjects of the population-based cohort METSIM. RESULTS: At baseline, mean HbA1c level was 5.6% (38 mmol/mol). After a mean follow-up of six years, mean HbA1c level was 5.7% (39 mmol/mol). Calibration graphs showed that predicted HbA1c levels were somewhat underestimated in the Inter99 cohort and overestimated in the Hoorn and KORA cohorts, indicating that the model's intercept should be adjusted for each cohort to improve predictions. Sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) were 55.7% (53.9, 57.5) and 56.9% (55.1, 58.7) respectively, for women, and 54.6% (52.7, 56.5) and 54.3% (52.4, 56.2) for men. External validation showed similar performance in the METSIM cohort. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In the non-diabetic population, our DIRECT-DETECT prediction model, including readily available predictors, has a relatively low explained variance and moderate discriminative performance, but can help to distinguish between future highest and lowest HbA1c levels. Absolute HbA1c values are cohort-dependent.

BclI Glucocorticoid Receptor Polymorphism in Relation to Arterial Stiffening and Cardiac Structure and Function: The Hoorn and CODAM Studies.

BACKGROUND: Chronic glucocorticoid excess is associated with arterial stiffening and cardiac dysfunction. The BclI glucocorticoid receptor (GR) polymorphism increases GR sensitivity and is associated with a higher body mass index (BMI) and some proxies for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether BclI influences arterial stiffening and cardiac dysfunction is currently unknown. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the association of the BclI polymorphism with arterial stiffening and cardiac structure and function. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study, combining 2 cohort studies designed to investigate genetic and metabolic determinants of CVD. We genotyped 1,124 individuals (age: 64.7 ± 8.5 years) from the Hoorn study and Cohort on Diabetes and Atherosclerosis Maastricht (CODAM) study for BclI. Several arterial stiffening indices of the carotid (Hoorn and CODAM study), brachial and femoral artery and the carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (Hoorn study only) were determined. In addition, in the Hoorn study, we determined several variables of cardiac structure and function. RESULTS: We identified 155 homozygous carriers (GG), 498 heterozygous carriers (CG), and 471 noncarriers (CC) of the BclI polymorphism. BclI genotypes did not display significant differences in variables of arterial stiffening (e.g., carotid distensibility coefficient (DC): 12.41 ± 5.37 vs. 12.87 ± 5.55 10-3/kPa [mean ± SD]; P = 0.38; homozygous vs. noncarriers). In addition, no clear differences in estimates of cardiac structure and function were found. CONCLUSIONS: Even though BclI is associated with a higher BMI and some proxies of CVD, our results do not support the concept that BclI carrier status is associated with greater arterial stiffening or cardiac dysfunction.