Polarization, the Pandemic, and Public Trust in Health System Actors.

CONTEXT: Public opinion on the performance of health system actors is polarized today, but it remains unclear which actors enjoy the most (least) trust among Democrats and Republicans, whether the Covid-19 pandemic has influenced how people view their own physicians, and whether doctors have retained the ability to influence public beliefs about policy issues. METHODS: We conducted two national surveys in 2022 and 2023 to examine these questions. FINDINGS: Democrats rate the performance of medical research scientists and public health experts during the pandemic more highly than do Republicans and independents. About three in ten Republicans say that the pandemic decreased their trust in their personal doctors. Nonetheless, most Americans report confidence in physicians. We replicate the findings of Gerber et al. (2014) to demonstrate that respondents continue to have more positive views of doctors than other professionals, and that public opinion is responsive to cues from a doctors' group. CONCLUSIONS: What polarizes Democrats and Republicans today is not whether medical scientists and public health experts are competent, but whether the advice offered by these actors is in the public interest and should guide policymakers' decisions. Democrats strongly believe the answer to these questions is yes, while Republicans exhibit skepticism.

Information about historical emissions drives the division of climate change mitigation costs.

Despite worsening climate change, the international community still disagrees on how to divide the costs of mitigation between developing countries and developed countries, which emitted the bulk of historical carbon emissions. We study this issue using an economic experiment. Specifically, we test how information about historical emissions influences how much participants pay for climate change mitigation. In a four-player game, participants are assigned to lead two fictional countries as members of either the first or the second generation. The first generation produces wealth at the expense of greater carbon emissions. The second generation inherits their predecessor's wealth and negotiates how to split the climate change mitigation costs. Here we show that when the second generation knows that the previous generation created the current wealth and mitigation costs, participants whose predecessor generated more carbon emissions offered to pay more, whereas the successors of low-carbon emitters offered to pay less.

Change of air quality knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, and practices during and post-wildfires in the United States.

Amid worsening climate change, the recurrent wildfires have substantially worsened air quality in the Western United States (U.S.). Understanding the knowledge, attitudes, perception, and practices (KAPP) over time in response to natural disasters such as wildfires is crucial for public health interventions and disaster preparedness. This is the first study to investigate the change in air quality KAPP over time in response to natural disasters. Previous studies have only assessed KAPP at a fixed time point. Using a two-wave panel survey (during and post-wildfires), we assessed the association between KAPP and respiratory health indicators as well as the changes over time in 212 participants in the U.S. Between the two waves, we found a significant 8% increase in knowledge, which was mainly driven by participants in areas unaffected by the wildfires. In addition, we found differential associations between KAPP and respiratory health indicators between areas affected and unaffected by the wildfires. These findings suggest that experiencing wildfires may affect KAPP and more longitudinal studies are warranted, particularly during periodic air quality crises.

Integrating web applications into popular survey platforms for online experiments.

Research using custom-made web applications is burgeoning as scholars increasingly conduct their experiments online. We show how researchers can integrate their web applications into popular survey software such as Qualtrics in five simple steps and provide the full JavaScript code and screenshots. This procedure allows participants to seamlessly switch from Qualtrics to their web applications without leaving the survey platform. This integration has two benefits: (1) it eliminates the risk that participants inadvertently drop out of the survey while switching from the survey software to the web application and vice versa; and (2) it saves researchers the fees charged by survey companies to host an external link on the survey platform. Hence, we make it easier to conduct research on targeted (e.g., national) samples using web applications.

Development and validation of a new scale to assess air quality knowledge (AQIQ).

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a leading public health concern around the world. Assessing the public's knowledge about air quality is critical to calibrate public health interventions. However, previous efforts to measure knowledge about air quality (AQIQ) have not relied on consistent and validated measures, thus precluding cross-country comparisons. We aimed to develop a robust scale to assess AQIQ and tested it in multiple countries. METHODS: To evaluate the psychometric properties and select the best performing items out of 10 AQIQ questions, we used methods from classical test theory and item response theory. We evaluated the scales using several scalability measures, including the Kuder-Richardson Formula 20 (KR-20), Loevinger's H, as well as trace lines. Volunteers from the United States (US, n = 400), India (n = 403), and China (n = 443) were recruited to validate the scale. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate the association between demographic factors and AQIQ. RESULTS: We found that participants from India had the highest AQIQ. In addition, not all questions performed well in each country. The scale was pruned and shorter subscales were validated. In the US, we obtained a 4-item scale (KR20 = 0.53, Loevinger's H = 0.34). In India, we obtained a 6-item scale (KR20 = 0.56; Loevinger's H = 0.48 for just 2 items). In China, we obtained a 5-item scale (KR20 = 0.39; Loevinger's H = 0.41 for just 2 items). Compared to the 10-item scale, the pruned scales showed stronger associations between measures of socioeconomic status and AQIQ. The results were robust to the scale used. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, general knowledge questions measured AQIQ more effectively in the US and India whereas knowledge of the air quality index better measured AQIQ in China. The findings suggest that careful measurement and validation are essential to develop knowledge scales for use in public health and environmental research.

Pay Your Debts: Moral Dilemmas of International Debt.

Should a government repay its international debts even if this imposes severe hardships on its citizens? Drawing on moral psychology, we investigate when people think a government is morally obligated to pay its debts. Participants read about a government that has to decide whether to default on its debt payments or cut vital programs. Across conditions, we varied the number of jobs at stake and whether a full or partial default is required to save them. Overall, most participants judged that a government should pay its debt even when the damage to the debtor is greater than the benefit to the lender. As the damage to the debtor became extreme, participants increasingly said the government should default, but they still judged that defaulting is morally wrong. In Experiment 2, we find in a national sample of Americans that political conservatives were more opposed to default than liberals. We discuss implications for policy, public opinion, and public welfare during economic downturns. Supplementary Information: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11109-020-09675-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Financial and trade relationships between the Eurozone and China in the age of resilience.

How did the financial and trade ties between China and the Eurozone develop in the aftermath of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis? We analyze these trends until the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we examine the financial and trade dynamics between the two currency areas and analyze the related risks and opportunities. The data point to several patterns. We find that financial volatility in China has been substantially greater than in the Eurozone. Even so, the largest and strongest Eurozone economies-France and Germany-have largely kept their investments in Chinese assets after a four- to sixfold expansion that started in the mid-2000s. In contrast, the financially weakest countries have accounted for the largest increases in trade volumes between China and the Eurozone. We also find that trade volumes are correlated with holdings of Chinese financial assets but assets rose at a substantially smaller rate than trade. These results show that China and the Eurozone continue to be asymmetrically integrated, whereby Eurozone countries still invest more timidly in Chinese financial assets compared to the aggressive trade and infrastructure partnerships initiated by China. We discuss the implications for future financial and trade integration between the two currency areas, which is bound to deepen in light of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.

One-way routes complicate cooperation in migrant crises.

How can countries cooperate to shelter migrants? We use experimental economics to study the distinct challenges of cooperation in migrant crises. We designed an economic game, pass the buck, where participants are leaders of countries who decide whether to shelter migrants or pass them to the next country. We examine the difficulties posed by one-way migration and differences in wealth. We find that leaders sheltered migrants less often when they received them first on a one-way route, compared to when everyone received migrants at the same time. Moreover, the first leader became more likely to shelter migrants when the last country could return them to the first. When one country was wealthier, the wealthy leader sheltered more and the other leaders passed more. We discuss the implications for international cooperation in migrant crises.

Spending too little in hard times.

People's decisions to consume and save resources are critical to their wellbeing. Previous experiments find that people typically spend too much because of how they discount the future. We propose that people's motive to preserve their savings can instead cause them to spend too little in hard times. We design an economic game in which participants can store resources for the future to survive in a harsh environment. A player's income is uncertain and consumption yields diminishing returns within each day, creating tradeoffs between spending and saving. We compare participants' decisions to a heuristic that performed best in simulations. We find that participants spent too much after windfalls in income, consistent with previous research, but they also spent too little after downturns, supporting the resource preservation hypothesis. In Experiment 2, we find that by varying the income stream, the downturn effect can be isolated from the windfall effect. In Experiments 3-4, we find the same downturn effect in games with financial and political themes.