Southeast Asia must narrow down the yield gap to continue to be a major rice bowl.

Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region with a high level of internal consumption and accounting for 40% of global rice exports. Limited land resources, climate change and yield stagnation during recent years have once again raised concerns about the capacity of the region to remain as a large net exporter. Here we use a modelling approach to map rice yield gaps and assess production potential and net exports by 2040. We find that the average yield gap represents 48% of the yield potential estimate for the region, but there are substantial differences among countries. Exploitable yield gaps are relatively large in Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines and Thailand but comparably smaller in Indonesia and Vietnam. Continuation of current yield trends will not allow Indonesia and Philippines to meet their domestic rice demand. In contrast, closing the exploitable yield gap by half would drastically reduce the need for rice imports with an aggregated annual rice surplus of 54 million tons available for export. Our study provides insights for increasing regional production on existing cropland by narrowing existing yield gaps.

Stomatal Ratio Showing No Response to Light Intensity in Oryza.

Stomata control carbon and water exchange between the leaves and the ambient. However, the plasticity responses of stomatal traits to growth conditions are still unclear, especially for monocot leaves. The current study investigated the leaf anatomical traits, stomatal morphological traits on both adaxial and abaxial leaf surfaces, and photosynthetic traits of Oryza leaves developed in two different growth conditions. Substantial variation exists across the Oryza species in leaf anatomy, stomatal traits, photosynthetic rate, and stomatal conductance. The abaxial stomatal density was higher than the adaxial stomatal density in all the species, and the stomatal ratios ranged from 0.35 to 0.46 across species in two growth environments. However, no difference in the stomatal ratio was observed between plants in the growth chamber and outdoors for a given species. Photosynthetic capacity, stomatal conductance, leaf width, major vein thickness, minor vein thickness, inter-vein distance, and stomatal pore width values for leaves grown outdoors were higher than those for plants grown in the growth chamber. Our results indicate that a broad set of leaf anatomical, stomatal, and photosynthetic traits of Oryza tend to shift together during plasticity to diverse growing conditions, but the previously projected sensitive trait, stomatal ratio, does not shape growth conditions.

Impact of urbanization trends on production of key staple crops.

Urbanization has appropriated millions of hectares of cropland, and this trend will persist as cities continue to expand. We estimate the impact of this conversion as the amount of land needed elsewhere to give the same yield potential as determined by differences in climate and soil properties. Robust spatial upscaling techniques, well-validated crop simulation models, and soil, climate, and cropping system databases are employed with a focus on populous countries with high rates of land conversion. We find that converted cropland is 30-40% more productive than new cropland, which means that projection of food production potential must account for expected cropland loss to urbanization. Policies that protect existing farmland from urbanization would help relieve pressure on expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems.

Closing yield gaps for rice self-sufficiency in China.

China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural-to-urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether it will remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report a detailed spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. A focus on increasing yields of double-rice systems on general, and in three single-rice provinces where yield gaps are relatively large, would provide greatest return on investments in research and development to remain self-sufficient. Discrepancies between results from our detailed bottom-up yield-gap analysis and those derived following a top-down methodology show that the two approaches would result in very different research and development priorities.