[Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

[Strategies of nutrients control in lakes based on ecoregions of lakes in China].

In order to better reduce lake eutrophication, based on five ecoregions of lakes, the relationships of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and TN/TP ratio with chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in 100 lakes were discussed, furthermore, strategies of nutrient control were proposed respectively. Results showed that among the five ecoregions, the lake eutrophication level was the lowest in Dongbei ecoregion and the highest in Huabei ecoregion, but the eutrophication level in lakes of all the five ecoregions is increasing in recent years. Algal growth in lakes of Dongbei and Huabei ecoregions was limited by phosphorus, while it was simultaneously limited by nitogen and phosphorus in lakes of other three ecoregions (Zhongdongbu, Yungui and Mengxin). In lakes with TN/TP < 10, significant correlation between Chl-a concentration and TN was found in lakes of the five ecoregions except for Huabei ecoregion, and significant correlation between Chl-a concentration and TP was found in lakes of Dongbei and Mengxin ecoregions. In lakes with TN/TP > 17, significant correlation between Chl-a concentration and TP was found in lakes of the five ecoregions except for Mengxin ecoregion, and significant correlation between Chl-a concentration and TN was found in lakes of Zhongdongbu, Yungui and Mengxin ecoregions. In lakes with 10 < TN/TP < 17, no significant correlation between Chl-a and TN (or TP) was found in lakes of all ecoregions except for Zhongdongbu ecoregion where Chl-a concentration was significantly affected by TN. As for strategies of nutrient control and reduction in the five ecoregions, lakes of Huabei ecoregion should adopt TP control in priority, and in Dongbei ecoregion, TP and TN should be controlled simultaneously in lakes with TN/TP < 10, while other lakes should focus on TP control. Lakes in other three ecoregions (Zhongdongbu, Mengxin and Yungui) should control TP and TN simultaneously.

Modeling the driving forces of the land use and land cover changes along the upper Yangtze river of China.

Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and historic resource exploitation, China's upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land use and cover, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This article examines the causes of land use and land cover change (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to support necessary policy actions for more sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a repeated cross-sectional dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, we develop a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by distorted market signals. We believe that these and other findings carry important policy implications.

[Impacts of cultivated land conversion on cultivated land productivity in China: prediction and analysis].

This paper simulated the spatial patterns of cultivated land in China under the future scenario by using the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model, and then estimated the cultivated land productivity at the grid pixel dimensions based on the Estimation System of Land Production (ESLP). In addition, the spatial patterns of cultivated land productivity in each of China agro-ecological zones were analyzed. On this basis, this paper predicted the impacts of cultivated land conversion on the cultivated land production in China in 2000-2020, and identified the major affecting factors on the cultivated land production. The research results indicated that the impact of improving the cultivated land productivity on the cultivated land production would be wunch more remarkable than that from the magnitude of cultivated land conversion in regions where there were high potential to imrprove the cultivated land productivity. However, in the regions with nearly no room to improve the productivity, cultivated land conversion would produce more apparent impacts on the total cultivated land production. In this sense, it was of significance for the national food security in China to adjust the cultivated land conversion to ensure the 0.12 billion hm2 of cultivated land, and to increase investment and improve management level to increase per unit grain yield.