Unraveling cradle-to-grave disease trajectories from multilayer comorbidity networks.

We aim to comprehensively identify typical life-spanning trajectories and critical events that impact patients' hospital utilization and mortality. We use a unique dataset containing 44 million records of almost all inpatient stays from 2003 to 2014 in Austria to investigate disease trajectories. We develop a new, multilayer disease network approach to quantitatively analyze how cooccurrences of two or more diagnoses form and evolve over the life course of patients. Nodes represent diagnoses in age groups of ten years; each age group makes up a layer of the comorbidity multilayer network. Inter-layer links encode a significant correlation between diagnoses (p < 0.001, relative risk > 1.5), while intra-layers links encode correlations between diagnoses across different age groups. We use an unsupervised clustering algorithm for detecting typical disease trajectories as overlapping clusters in the multilayer comorbidity network. We identify critical events in a patient's career as points where initially overlapping trajectories start to diverge towards different states. We identified 1260 distinct disease trajectories (618 for females, 642 for males) that on average contain 9 (IQR 2-6) different diagnoses that cover over up to 70 years (mean 23 years). We found 70 pairs of diverging trajectories that share some diagnoses at younger ages but develop into markedly different groups of diagnoses at older ages. The disease trajectory framework can help us to identify critical events as specific combinations of risk factors that put patients at high risk for different diagnoses decades later. Our findings enable a data-driven integration of personalized life-course perspectives into clinical decision-making.

Obesity as pleiotropic risk state for metabolic and mental health throughout life.

Obesity, a highly prevalent disorder and central diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome, is linked to mental health by clinical observations and biological pathways. Patients with a diagnosis of obesity may show long-lasting increases in risk for receiving psychiatric co-diagnoses. Austrian national registry data of inpatient services from 1997 to 2014 were analyzed to detect associations between a hospital diagnosis of obesity (ICD-10: E66) and disorders grouped by level-3 ICD-10 codes. Data were stratified by age decades and associations between each pair of diagnoses were computed with the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel method, providing odds ratios (OR) and p values corrected for multiple testing. Further, directions of the associations were assessed by calculating time-order-ratios. Receiving a diagnosis of obesity significantly increased the odds for a large spectrum of psychiatric disorders across all age groups, including depression, psychosis-spectrum, anxiety, eating and personality disorders (all pcorr < 0.01, all OR > 1.5). For all co-diagnoses except for psychosis-spectrum, obesity was significantly more often the diagnosis received first. Further, significant sex differences were found for most disorders, with women showing increased risk for all disorders except schizophrenia and nicotine addiction. In addition to the well-recognized role in promoting disorders related to the metabolic syndrome and severe cardiometabolic sequalae, obesity commonly precedes severe mental health disorders. Risk is most pronounced in young age groups and particularly increased in female patients. Consequently, thorough screening for mental health problems in patients with obesity is urgently called for to allow prevention and facilitate adequate treatment.

Diabetes mellitus is associated with a higher relative risk for venous thromboembolism in females than in males.

AIMS: The risk for developing venous thromboembolism (VTE) is about equal in both sexes. Research suggests diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis, both forms of VTE. We aimed at investigating the sex-specific impact of DM on VTE risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Medical claims data were analyzed in a retrospective, population-level cohort study in Austria between 1997 and 2014. 180,034 patients with DM were extracted and compared to 540,102 sex and age-matched controls without DM in terms of VTE risk and whether specific DM medications might modulate VTE risk. RESULTS: The risk to develop VTE was 1.4 times higher amongst patients with DM than controls (95% CI 1.36-1.43, p < 0.001). The association of DM with newly diagnosed VTE was significantly greater in females (OR = 1.52, 95% CI 1.46-1.58, p < 0.001) resulting in a relative risk increase of 1.17 (95% CI 1.11-1.23) across all age groups with a peak of 1.65 (95% CI 1.43-1.89) between 50 and 59 years. Dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors were associated with a higher risk for VTE amongst female DM patients (OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-4.3, p = 0.0096). CONCLUSION: Amongst DM patients, females appear to be associated with a higher relative risk increase in VTE than males, especially during perimenopause.

Stress-testing the resilience of the Austrian healthcare system using agent-based simulation.

Patients do not access physicians at random but rather via naturally emerging networks of patient flows between them. As mass quarantines, absences due to sickness, or other shocks thin out these networks, the system might be pushed to a tipping point where it loses its ability to deliver care. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to quantify regional resilience to such shocks via an agent-based model. For each region and medical specialty we construct patient-sharing networks and stress-test these by removing physicians. This allows us to measure regional resilience indicators describing how many physicians can be removed before patients will not be treated anymore. Our model could therefore enable health authorities to rapidly identify bottlenecks in access to care. Here, we show that regions and medical specialties differ substantially in their resilience and that these systemic differences can be related to indicators for individual physicians by quantifying their risk and benefit to the system.

Agent-based simulations for protecting nursing homes with prevention and vaccination strategies.

Due to its high lethality among older people, the safety of nursing homes has been of central importance during the COVID-19 pandemic. With test procedures and vaccines becoming available at scale, nursing homes might relax prohibitory measures while controlling the spread of infections. By control we mean that each index case infects less than one other person on average. Here, we develop an agent-based epidemiological model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 calibrated to Austrian nursing homes to identify optimal prevention strategies. We find that the effectiveness of mitigation testing depends critically on test turnover time (time until test result), the detection threshold of tests and mitigation testing frequencies. Under realistic conditions and in absence of vaccinations, we find that mitigation testing of employees only might be sufficient to control outbreaks if tests have low turnover times and detection thresholds. If vaccines that are 60% effective against high viral load and transmission are available, control is achieved if 80% or more of the residents are vaccinated, even without mitigation testing and if residents are allowed to have visitors. Since these results strongly depend on vaccine efficacy against infection, retention of testing infrastructures, regular testing and sequencing of virus genomes is advised to enable early identification of new variants of concern.

The Effect of Cardiovascular Comorbidities on Women Compared to Men: Longitudinal Retrospective Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although men are more prone to developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) than women, risk factors for CVD, such as nicotine abuse and diabetes mellitus, have been shown to be more detrimental in women than in men. OBJECTIVE: We developed a method to systematically investigate population-wide electronic health records for all possible associations between risk factors for CVD and other diagnoses. The developed structured approach allows an exploratory and comprehensive screening of all possible comorbidities of CVD, which are more connected to CVD in either men or women. METHODS: Based on a population-wide medical claims dataset comprising 44 million records of inpatient stays in Austria from 2003 to 2014, we determined comorbidities of acute myocardial infarction (AMI; International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision [ICD-10] code I21) and chronic ischemic heart disease (CHD; ICD-10 code I25) with a significantly different prevalence in men and women. We introduced a measure of sex difference as a measure of differences in logarithmic odds ratios (ORs) between male and female patients in units of pooled standard errors. RESULTS: Except for lipid metabolism disorders (OR for females [ORf]=6.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]=6.57-6.79, OR for males [ORm]=8.31, 95% CI=8.21-8.41), all identified comorbidities were more likely to be associated with AMI and CHD in females than in males: nicotine dependence (ORf=6.16, 95% CI=5.96-6.36, ORm=4.43, 95% CI=4.35-4.5), diabetes mellitus (ORf=3.52, 95% CI=3.45-3.59, ORm=3.13, 95% CI=3.07-3.19), obesity (ORf=3.64, 95% CI=3.56-3.72, ORm=3.33, 95% CI=3.27-3.39), renal disorders (ORf=4.27, 95% CI=4.11-4.44, ORm=3.74, 95% CI=3.67-3.81), asthma (ORf=2.09, 95% CI=1.96-2.23, ORm=1.59, 95% CI=1.5-1.68), and COPD (ORf=2.09, 95% CI 1.96-2.23, ORm=1.59, 95% CI 1.5-1.68). Similar results could be observed for AMI. CONCLUSIONS: Although AMI and CHD are more prevalent in men, women appear to be more affected by certain comorbidities of AMI and CHD in their risk for developing CVD.

Risk of Typical Diabetes-Associated Complications in Different Clusters of Diabetic Patients: Analysis of Nine Risk Factors.

OBJECTIVES: Diabetic patients are often diagnosed with several comorbidities. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between different combinations of risk factors and complications in diabetic patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a longitudinal, population-wide dataset of patients with hospital diagnoses and identified all patients (n = 195,575) receiving a diagnosis of diabetes in the observation period from 2003-2014. We defined nine ICD-10-codes as risk factors and 16 ICD-10 codes as complications. Using a computational algorithm, cohort patients were assigned to clusters based on the risk factors they were diagnosed with. The clusters were defined so that the patients assigned to them developed similar complications. Complication risk was quantified in terms of relative risk (RR) compared with healthy control patients. RESULTS: We identified five clusters associated with an increased risk of complications. A combined diagnosis of arterial hypertension (aHTN) and dyslipidemia was shared by all clusters and expressed a baseline of increased risk. Additional diagnosis of (1) smoking, (2) depression, (3) liver disease, or (4) obesity made up the other four clusters and further increased the risk of complications. Cluster 9 (aHTN, dyslipidemia and depression) represented diabetic patients at high risk of angina pectoris "AP" (RR: 7.35, CI: 6.74-8.01), kidney disease (RR: 3.18, CI: 3.04-3.32), polyneuropathy (RR: 4.80, CI: 4.23-5.45), and stroke (RR: 4.32, CI: 3.95-4.71), whereas cluster 10 (aHTN, dyslipidemia and smoking) identified patients with the highest risk of AP (RR: 10.10, CI: 9.28-10.98), atherosclerosis (RR: 4.07, CI: 3.84-4.31), and loss of extremities (RR: 4.21, CI: 1.5-11.84) compared to the controls. CONCLUSIONS: A comorbidity of aHTN and dyslipidemia was shown to be associated with diabetic complications across all risk-clusters. This effect was amplified by a combination with either depression, smoking, obesity, or non-specific liver disease.

Diabetes Mellitus is Associated with a Higher Relative Risk for Parkinson's Disease in Women than in Men.

BACKGROUND: In general, the risk to develop Parkinson's disease (PD) is higher in men compared to women. Besides male sex and genetics, research suggests diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for PD as well. OBJECTIVE: In this population-level study, we aimed at investigating the sex-specific impact of DM on the risk of developing PD. METHODS: Medical claims data were analyzed in a cross-sectional study in the Austrian population between 1997 and 2014. In the age group of 40-79 and 80+, 235,268 patients (46.6%females, 53.4%males) with DM were extracted and compared to 1,938,173 non-diabetic controls (51.9%females, 48.1%males) in terms of risk of developing PD. RESULTS: Men with DM had a 1.46 times increased odds ratio (OR) to be diagnosed with PD compared to non-diabetic men (95%CI 1.38-1.54, p < 0.001). The association of DM with newly diagnosed PD was significantly greater in women (OR = 1.71, 95%CI 1.60-1.82, p < 0.001) resulting in a relative risk increase of 1.17 (95%CI 1.11-1.30) in the age group 40 to 79 years. In 80+-year-olds the relative risk increase is 1.09 (95%CI 1.01-1.18). CONCLUSION: Although men are more prone to develop PD, women see a higher risk increase in PD than men amongst DM patients.

Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions.

Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific 'what-if' scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.

Diabetes mellitus is associated with a higher risk for major depressive disorder in women than in men.

INTRODUCTION: Both diabetes mellitus and being female significantly increase the risk of being diagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD). The diagnosis of MDD, combined with diabetes mellitus, can be detrimental in terms of mortality and morbidity. We aimed at investigating the impact of diabetes mellitus on the gender gap in MDD over the course of a human lifetime. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a cross-sectional study over the course of 17 years, medical claims data of the general Austrian population (n=8 996 916) between 1997 and 2014 was analyzed. Of these, 123 232 patients with diabetes mellitus were extracted and compared with non-diabetic controls. RESULTS: In a cohort of 123 232 patients with diabetes mellitus and 1 933 218 controls (52% females, 48% males), women with diabetes had 2.55 times increased ORs to be diagnosed with MDD compared with women without diabetes (95% CI 2.48 to 2.62, p<0.001) between the age of 30 and 69 years. The effect of diabetes mellitus on the prevalence of MDD was significantly smaller in men (OR=1.85, 95% CI 1.80 to 1.91, p<0.001). Between 0 and 30 years and after age 70 years, the gender gap of MDD was not different between patients with and without diabetes mellitus. The peak of the gender gap in MDD in patients with diabetes mellitus was around the age of 40-49 years. A sensitivity analysis identified overweight, obesity and alcohol dependence as the most potent influencing factors of the widening of the gender gap among patients with diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes mellitus is a stronger risk factor for MDD in women than in men, with the greatest width of the gender gap between 40 and 49 years. High-risk patients for MDD, such as overweight female patients with diabetes, should be more carefully assessed and monitored.

A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to COVID-19.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Monitoring and documenting government strategies during the COVID-19 crisis is crucial to understand the progression of the epidemic. Following a content analysis strategy of existing public information sources, we developed a specific hierarchical coding scheme for NPIs. We generated a comprehensive structured dataset of government interventions and their respective timelines of implementation. To improve transparency and motivate collaborative validation process, information sources are shared via an open library. We also provide codes that enable users to visualise the dataset. Standardization and structure of the dataset facilitate inter-country comparison and the assessment of the impacts of different NPI categories on the epidemic parameters, population health indicators, the economy, and human rights, among others. This dataset provides an in-depth insight of the government strategies and can be a valuable tool for developing relevant preparedness plans for pandemic. We intend to further develop and update this dataset until the end of December 2020.