Development and external validation of a home-based risk predicTion modEl of natUral onseT of menopAuse -TEUTA.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors. DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of self-reported natural menopause. MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistic, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances. RESULTS: The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohort, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.

Dietary fats and the APOE-e4 risk allele in relation to cognitive decline: a longitudinal investigation in a biracial population sample.

BACKGROUND: APOE-e4 is the strongest genetic risk factor for Alzheimer's disease. However, the influence of APOE-e4 on dietary fat intake and cognition has not been investigated. OBJECTIVE: We aim to examine the association of types of dietary fat and their association to cognitive decline among those with and without the APOE-e4 allele. METHODS: The study included 3,360 Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP) participants from four Southside Chicago communities. Global cognition was assessed using a composite score of episodic memory, perceptual speed, MMSE, and diet using a 144-item food frequency questionnaire. APOE genotype was assessed by the hME Sequenom mass-array platform. Longitudinal mixed-effect regression models were used to examine the association of dietary fat and the APOE-e4 allele with cognitive decline, adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking status, and calorie intake. RESULTS: The present study involved 3,360 participants with a mean age of 74 at baseline, 62% African Americans, 63% females, and a mean follow-up of 7.8 years. Among participants with the APOE-e4 risk allele, higher intakes of total and saturated fat (SFA) were associated with a faster decline in global cognition. Among individuals with the APOE-e4 risk allele, a 5% increase in calories from SFA was associated with a 21% faster decline (ß = -0.0197, P = 0.0038). In contrast, a higher intake of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-n3 PUFA) was associated with a slower rate of decline in global cognition among APOE-e4 carriers. Specifically, for every 1% energy increment from LC-n3 PUFA, the annual rate of global cognitive decline was slower by 0.024 standardized unit (SD 0.010, P = 0.023), about 30.4% slower annual cognitive decline. Higher SFA or other types of dietary fat were not associated with cognitive decline among APOE-e4 non-carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found a significant association between SFA and faster cognitive decline, LC-n3 PUFA and slower cognitive decline among those with the APOE-e4 allele. Our findings suggested that higher intake of SFA might contribute faster cognitive decline in combination with APOE-e4 whereas LC-n3 PUFA might compensate the adverse effects of APOE-e4. The interaction between intakes of different types of dietary fat and APOE-e4 on cognitive function warrants further research.

Healthy Lifestyle and Cognition in Older Adults With Common Neuropathologies of Dementia.

Importance: A healthy lifestyle is associated with better cognitive functioning in older adults, but whether this association is independent of the accumulation of dementia-related pathologies in the brain is uncertain. Objective: To determine the role of postmortem brain pathology, including ß-amyloid load, phosphorylated tau tangles, cerebrovascular pathology, and other brain pathologies, in the association between lifestyle and cognition proximate to death. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal clinical-pathologic study with autopsy data from 1997 to 2022 and up to 24 years of follow-up. Participants included 754 deceased individuals with data on lifestyle factors, cognitive testing proximate to death, and a complete neuropathologic evaluation at the time of these analyses. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2023. Exposures: A healthy lifestyle score was developed based on self-reported factors, including noncurrent smoking, at least 150 minutes of physical activity per week, limiting alcohol consumption, a Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay (MIND) diet score higher than 7.5, and a late-life cognitive activity score higher than 3.2. The lifestyle score ranges from 0 to 5, with higher scores reflecting a healthier lifestyle. Main Outcomes and Measures: The global cognitive score was derived from a battery of nineteen standardized tests. Brain pathology measures included ß-amyloid load, phosphorylated tau tangles, global Alzheimer disease pathology, vascular brain pathologies, Lewy body, hippocampal sclerosis, and TAR DNA-binding protein 43. Results: Of 586 included decedents, 415 (70.8%) were female, 171 (29.2%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at death was 90.9 (6.0) years. Higher lifestyle score was associated with better global cognitive functioning proximate to death. In the multivariable-adjusted model, a 1-point increase in lifestyle score was associated with 0.216 (SE = 0.036, P < .001) units higher in global cognitive scores. Neither the strength nor the significance of the association changed substantially when common dementia-related brain pathologies were included in the multivariable-adjusted models. The ß estimate after controlling for the ß-amyloid load was 0.191 (SE = 0.035; P < .001). A higher lifestyle score was associated with lower ß-amyloid load in the brain (ß = -0.120; SE = 0.041; P = .003), and 11.6% of the lifestyle-cognition association was estimated through ß-amyloid load. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that in older adults, a healthy lifestyle may provide a cognitive reserve to maintain cognitive abilities independently of common neuropathologies of dementia.

Cardiovascular risk burden, dementia risk and brain structural imaging markers: a study from UK Biobank.

Background: Cardiovascular risk burden is associated with dementia risk and neurodegeneration-related brain structure, while the role of genetics and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. Aims: To examine the association of overall cardiovascular risk burden with the risk of major dementia subtypes and volumes of related brain regions in a large sample, and to explore the role of genetics and CVD onset. Methods: A prospective study among 354 654 participants free of CVD and dementia (2006-2010, mean age 56.4 years) was conducted within the UK Biobank, with brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurement available for 15 104 participants since 2014. CVD risk burden was evaluated by the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score (FGCRS). Dementia diagnosis was ascertained from inpatient and death register data. Results: Over a median 12.0-year follow-up, 3998 all-cause dementia cases were identified. Higher FGCRS was associated with increased all-cause dementia risk after adjusting for demographic, major lifestyle, clinical factors and the polygenic risk score (PRS) of Alzheimer's disease. Comparing the high versus low tertile of FGCRS, the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 1.26 (1.12 to 1.41) for all-cause dementia, 1.67 (1.33 to 2.09) for Alzheimer's disease and 1.53 (1.07 to 2.16) for vascular dementia (all ptrend<0.05). Incident stroke and coronary heart disease accounted for 14% (95% CI: 9% to 21%) of the association between FGCRS and all-cause dementia. Interactions were not detected for FGCRS and PRS on the risk of any dementia subtype. We observed an 83% (95% CI: 47% to 128%) higher all-cause dementia risk comparing the high-high versus low-low FGCRS-PRS category. For brain volumes, higher FGCRS was associated with greater log-transformed white matter hyperintensities, smaller cortical volume and smaller grey matter volume. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the positive association of cardiovascular risk burden with dementia risk also applies to major dementia subtypes. The association of cardiovascular risk burden with all-cause dementia is largely independent of CVD onset and genetic predisposition to dementia.