Predictors of non-transplantable recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with frontline liver resection.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is common in patients treated with liver resection (LR). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and preoperative predictors of non-transplantable recurrence in patients with single HCC ≤5 cm treated with frontline LR. METHODS: From the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database, 512 patients receiving frontline LR for single HCC ≤5 cm were retrieved. Incidence and predictors of recurrence beyond Milan criteria (MC) and up-to-seven criteria were compared between patients with HCC <4 and ≥4 cm. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.2 years, the overall recurrence rate was 55.9%. In the ≥4 cm group, a significantly higher proportion of patients recurred beyond MC at first recurrence (28.9% vs. 14.1%; p < 0.001) and overall (44.4% vs. 25.2%; p < 0.001). Similar results were found considering recurrence beyond up-to-seven criteria. Compared to those with larger tumours, patients with HCC <4 cm had a longer recurrence-free survival and overall survival. HCC size ≥4 cm and high alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level at the time of LR were independent predictors of recurrence beyond MC (and up-to-seven criteria). In the subgroup of patients with available histologic information (n = 354), microvascular invasion and microsatellite lesions were identified as additional independent risk factors for non-transplantable recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the high recurrence rate, LR for single HCC ≤5 cm offers excellent long-term survival. Non-transplantable recurrence is predicted by HCC size and AFP levels, among pre-operatively available variables. High-risk patients could be considered for frontline LT or listed for transplantation even before recurrence.

Immunonutrition in patients who underwent major abdominal surgery: A comprehensive systematic review and component network metanalysis using GRADE and CINeMA approaches.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of immunonutrition in patients who underwent major abdominal surgery have been recently established, but the optimal combination of immunonutrients has remained unclear. The aim is to clarify this point. METHODS: A systematic search of randomized clinical trials about immunonutrition in major abdominal surgery was made. A frequentist random-effects component network meta-analysis was conducted, reporting the P score and odds ratio or mean difference with a 95% confidence interval. The best components and best plausible strategies were described. The critical endpoints were morbidity and mortality rates. The important endpoints were infectious complication rate and length of stay. RESULTS: The meta-analysis includes 87 studies and 8,375 patients. The best approach for morbidity rate, with a moderate grade of certainty, was the use of perioperative enteral/oral immunonutrition with arginine, glutamine, and polyunsaturated fatty acids (odds ratio 0.32; 0.10 to 0.98; P score of 0.93). The mortality rate was reduced by postoperative enteral immunonutrition with RNA, arginine, and polyunsaturated fatty acids (odds ratio 59; 0.29 to 1.22; P score 0.84) but with a low grade of certainty. No significant heterogeneity or incoherence is observed. The length of stay and infectious results are "at risk" for high heterogeneity or network meta-analysis incoherence. The component analysis confirmed that postoperative oral/enteral use of 2 or 3 components is crucial to reducing morbidity rate. CONCLUSION: The oral/enteral immunonutrition in the postoperative period, with multiple immunonutrients, can reduce the morbidity rate in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery. The effect of immunonutrition on mortality, infectious disease, and length of stay is unclear.

Characteristics and survival of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and contemporary data pertaining large populations of patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are missing. AIM: To describe main characteristics and outcome of PBC patients with HCC diagnosed in the new millennium. METHODS: Analysing the Italian Liver Cancer registry we identified 80 PBC patients with HCC diagnosed after the year 2000, and described their clinical characteristics, access to treatment and survival. RESULTS: Median age of patients was 71 years and 50.0% were males. Cirrhosis was present in 86.3% of patients, being well-compensated in 58.0%. Median HCC diameter was smaller in patients under surveillance (2.6 vs 4.0 cm, P = 0.007). Curative treatment, feasible in 50.0% of patients, was associated with improved survival compared to palliative and supportive care (42 vs 33 vs 6 months, P<0.0001). Surveillance was associated with a non-significant improved survival (36 vs 23 months), likely due to similar rate of curative treatment in patients under (51.4%) and outside surveillance (42.6%). CONCLUSIONS: PBC patients with HCC are often elderly males with well-preserved liver function. Feasibility of curative treatment is high and associated with improved prognosis. Description of these patients may help focus surveillance to identify earlier tumours, increase their curability, and improve prognosis.

Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Clinical Practice: Temporal Trends and Survival Outcomes of an Iterative Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is one of the most frequently applied treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. In this study, we aimed at evaluating whether and how TACE application and repetition, as well as the related outcome, have changed over the last three decades in Italy. METHODS: Data of 7,184 patients with HCC were retrieved from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database. Patients were divided according to the period of diagnosis in six cohorts: P1 (1988-1993), P2 (1994-1998), P3 (1999-2004), P4 (2005-2009), P5 (2010-2014), and P6 (2015-2019). All the analyses were repeated in the overall patient population and in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) B patients, who are the subgroup of HCC patients originally supposed to receive TACE according to guidelines. TACE was defined as either the first or the main (more effective) treatment. RESULTS: The proportion of patients receiving TACE as first or main therapy declined over time, and less than 50% of BCLC B patients were treated with chemoembolization from P3 onward. Conversely, TACE was widely used even outside the intermediate stage. Survival of TACE-treated patients progressively increased from P1 to P6. Although TACE was performed only once in the majority of patients, there was an increasing proportion of those receiving 2 or ≥3 treatments sessions over time. The overall survival (OS) of patients undergoing repeated treatments was significantly higher compared to those managed with a single TACE (median OS 40.0 vs. 65.0 vs. 71.8 months in 1, 2, and ≥3 TACE groups, respectively; p < 0.0001). However, after a first-line TACE, the adoption of curative therapies provided longer survival than repeating TACE (83.0 vs. 42.0 months; p < 0.0001), which in turn was associated with better outcomes compared to systemic therapies or best supportive care (BSC). CONCLUSIONS: Despite a decline in the percentage of treated patients over time, TACE has still an important role in the management of HCC patients. The survival of TACE-treated patients gradually improved over time, probably due to a better patient selection. Iterative TACE is effective, but an upward shift to curative therapies provides better outcomes while transition to systemic therapies and BSC leads to a worse prognosis.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma with a 3-months interval in "extremely high-risk" patients does not further improve survival.

BACKGROUND: An enhanced surveillance schedule has been proposed for cirrhotics with viral etiology, who are considered at extremely high-risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). AIMS: We compared the 3- and 6-months surveillance interval, evaluating cancer stage at diagnosis and patient survival. METHODS: Data of 777 HBV and HCV cirrhotic patients with HCC diagnosed under a 3-months (n = 109, 3MS group) or a 6-months (n = 668, 6MS group) surveillance were retrieved from the Italian Liver Cancer database. Survival in the 3MS group was considered as observed and adjusted for lead-time bias, and survival analysis was repeated after a propensity score matching. RESULTS: The 3-months surveillance interval neither reduced the share of patients diagnosed outside the Milano criteria, nor increased their probability to receive curative treatments. The median survival of 6MS patients (55.0 months [45.9-64.0]) was not significantly different from the observed (47.0 months [35.0-58.9]; p = 0.43) and adjusted (44.9 months [33.4-56.4]; p = 0.30) survival of 3MS patients. A propensity score analysis confirmed the absence of a survival advantage for 3MS patients. CONCLUSIONS: A tightening of surveillance schedule does not increase the diagnosis of early-stage tumors, the feasibility of curative treatments and the survival. Therefore, we should maintain the 6-months interval in the surveillance of viral cirrhotics.

Material deprivation affects the management and clinical outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma in a high-resource environment.

AIM: This study investigated how material deprivation in Italy influences the stage of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at diagnosis and the chance of cure. METHODS: 4114 patients from the Italian Liver Cancer database consecutively diagnosed with HCC between January 2008 and December 2018 were analysed about severe material deprivation (SMD) rate tertiles of the region of birth and region of managing hospitals, according to the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. The main outcomes were HCC diagnosis modalities (during or outside surveillance), treatment adoption and overall survival. RESULTS: In more deprived regions, HCC was more frequently diagnosed during surveillance, while the incidental diagnosis was prevalent in the least deprived. Tumour characteristics did not differ among regions. The proportion of patients undergoing potentially curative treatments progressively decreased as the SMD worsened. Consequently, overall survival was better in less deprived regions. Patients who moved from most deprived to less deprived regions increased their probability of receiving potentially curative treatments by 1.11 times (95% CI 1.03 to 1.19), decreasing their mortality likelihood (hazard ratio 0.78 95% CI 0.67 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic status measured through SMD does not seem to influence HCC features at diagnosis but brings a negative effect on the chance of receiving potentially curative treatments. Patient mobility from the most deprived to the less deprived regions increased the access to curative therapies, with the ultimate result of improving survival.

Time-Varying mHAP-III Is the Most Accurate Predictor of Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization.

INTRODUCTION: The prognosis of patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is extremely variable, and a confounding factor is that TACE is often repeated several times. We retrospectively evaluated the accuracy of different prognostic scores and staging systems in estimating overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: An analysis considering prognostic models as time-varying variables was performed, calculating OS from the time of TACE to the time of the subsequent treatment. Total follow-up time for each patient was therefore split into several observation times accounting for each TACE procedure. Values of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare different systems. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify additional factors predictive of OS. We analyzed 1,610 TACE performed in 1,058 patients recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer database from 2008 through 2016. RESULTS: The median OS of the enrolled patients was 41 months. According to LRT χ2 and AIC values based on the time-varying analysis, mHAP-III achieved the best values (41.72 and 4,625.49, respectively, p < 0.0001), indicating the highest predictive performance compared with all other scores (HAP, mHAP-II, ALBI, and pALBI) and staging systems (MELD, ITALICA, CLIP, MESH, MESIAH, JIS, HKLC, and BCLC). In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, mHAP-III maintained an independent effect on OS (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.55, p < 0.0001). Time-varying age, alcoholic etiology, radiologic response to TACE, and performing ablation or surgery after TACE were additional significant variables resulting from the multivariable model. CONCLUSION: An innovative time-varying analysis revealed that mHAP-III was the most accurate model in predicting OS in patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Other clinical pre- and post-TACE variables were also found to be relevant for this prediction.

Mild Head Trauma: Is Antiplatelet Therapy a Risk Factor for Hemorrhagic Complications?

Background and objectives: In patients who receive antiplatelet therapy (APT), the bleeding risk profile after mild head trauma (MHT) still needs clarification. Some studies have demonstrated an association with bleeding risk, whereas others have not. We studied the population of our level II emergency department (ED) trauma center to determine the risk of bleeding in patients receiving APT and whether bleeding results not from antiplatelet agents but rather from age. We assessed the bleeding risk, the incidence of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) that necessitated hospitalization for observation, the need for cranial neurosurgery, the severity of the patient's condition at discharge, and the frequency of ED revisits for head trauma in patients receiving APT. Materials and Methods: This retrospective single-center study included 483 patients receiving APT who were in the ED for MHT in 2019. The control group consisted of 1443 patients in the ED with MHT over the same period who were not receiving APT or anticoagulant therapy. Our ED diagnostic therapeutic protocol mandates both triage and the medical examination to identify patients with MHT who are taking any anticoagulant or APT. Results: APT was not significantly associated with bleeding risk (p > 0.05); as a risk factor, age was significantly associated with the risk of bleeding, even after adjustment for therapy. Patients receiving APT had a greater need of surgery (1.2% vs. 0.4%; p < 0.0001) and a higher rate of hospitalization (52.9% vs. 37.4%; p < 0.0001), and their clinical condition was more severe (evaluated according to the exit code value on a one-dimensional quantitative five-point numerical scale) at the time of discharge (p = 0.013). The frequency of ED revisits due to head trauma did not differ between the two groups. Conclusions: The risk of bleeding in patients receiving APT who had MHT was no higher than that in the control group. However, the clinical condition of patients receiving APT, including hospital admission for ICH monitoring and cranial neurosurgical interventions, was more severe.

Pattern of macrovascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), macrovascular invasion (MaVI) limits treatment options and decreases survival. Detailed data on the relationship between MaVI extension and patients' characteristics, and its impact on patients' outcome are limited. We evaluated the prevalence and extension of MaVI in a large cohort of consecutive HCC patients, analysing its association with liver disease and tumour characteristics, as well as with treatments performed and patients' survival. METHODS: We analysed data of 4774 patients diagnosed with HCC recorded in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database (2008-2018). Recursive partition analysis (RPA) was performed to evaluate interactions between MaVI, clinical variables and treatment, exploring the inter-relationship determining overall survival. RESULTS: MaVI prevalence was 11.1%, and median survival of these patients was 6.0 months (95% CI, 5.1-7.1). MaVI was associated with younger age at diagnosis, presence of symptoms, worse Performance Status (PS) and liver function, high alphafetoprotein levels and large HCCs. MaVI extension was associated with worse PS, ascites and greater impairment in liver function. RPA identified patients' categories with different treatment indications and survival, ranging from 2.4 months in those with PS > 1 and ascites, regardless of MaVI extension (receiving best supportive care in 90.3% of cases), to 14.1 months in patients with PS 0-1, no ascites and Vp1-Vp2 MaVI (treated with surgery in 19.1% of cases). CONCLUSIONS: MaVI presence and extension, together with PS and ascites, significantly affect patients' survival and treatment selection. The decision tree based on these parameters may help assess patients' prognosis and inform therapeutic decisions.

Surveillance as Determinant of Long-Term Survival in Non-Transplanted Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients.

PURPOSE: We aimed at assessing the impact of surveillance on long-term survival in HCC patients. METHODS: From the ITA.LI.CA database, we selected 1028 cases with long (≥5 years, LS group) and 2721 controls with short-term survival (<5 years, SS group). The association between surveillance and LS was adjusted for confounders by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Survival of surveilled patients was presented both as observed and corrected for the lead-time bias, and the comparison of survival between surveillance and no surveillance groups was also performed after balancing the baseline characteristics with inverse probability weights (IPW). RESULTS: LS patients were more frequently diagnosed under surveillance (p < 0.0001), and had more favorable baseline characteristics. Surveillance was an independent predictor of LS (OR = 1.413, 95% CI 1.195-1.671; p < 0.0001). The observed and the lead-time corrected survival of surveilled patients were significantly longer compared to the survival of not surveilled patients (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0008, respectively). In IPW adjusted populations, no survival differences were demonstrated between the two groups (p = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance, increasing early-stage diagnosis and applicability of curative treatments, is a fundamental determinant of long-term survival in HCC patients. A wide implementation of surveillance programs should be pursued in order to improve HCC patients' prognosis.

Changes in hepatocellular carcinoma aggressiveness characteristics with an increase in tumor diameter.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis depends on both liver and tumor determinants, especially on maximum tumor diameter, multifocality, and presence of portal vein thrombosis, despite apparently complete tumor removal by resection or liver transplantation. AIMS: To examine parameters of hepatocellular carcinoma aggressiveness as tumor size increases. METHODS: A large hepatocellular carcinoma database was examined for trends in serum alpha-fetoprotein and the percentage of patients with macroscopic portal vein thrombosis or tumor multifocality. RESULTS: A total of 13,016 hepatocellular carcinoma patients were identified having full tumor and survival data. Of these, 76.56% were male and 23.44% were female, with a median age of 64.4 years. We found that as the maximum tumor diameter increased, there was a significant trend for increased alpha-fetoprotein levels (P<0.001) and an increased percentage of patients with either portal vein thrombosis or tumor multifocality, each P<0.0001. Furthermore, the increases of both alpha-fetoprotein and portal vein thrombosis were proportionately greater than the related maximum tumor diameter increases. These trends of increased alpha-fetoprotein, portal vein thrombosis, and multifocality with increasing maximum tumor diameter had non-linear patterns. Within alpha-fetoprotein and multifocality trends, there were identifiable sub-trends associated with specific maximum tumor diameter ranges. CONCLUSIONS: The greater fold-increases in alpha-fetoprotein and portal vein thrombosis compared with increases in maximum tumor diameter imply that hepatocellular carcinoma characteristics may change with increasing size to a more aggressive phenotype, suggesting that follow-up tumor sampling might be useful, in addition to baseline tumor sampling, for optimal therapeutic choices to be made.

Identification of Clinical Phenotypes and Related Survival in Patients with Large HCCs.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) factors, especially maximum tumor diameter (MTD), tumor multifocality, portal vein thrombosis (PVT), and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), influence survival. AIM: To examine patterns of tumor factors in large HCC patients. METHODS: A database of large HCC patients was examined. RESULTS: A multiple Cox proportional hazard model on death identified low serum albumin levels and the presence of PVT and multifocality, with each having a hazard ratio ≥2.0. All combinations of these three parameters were examined in relation to survival. Using univariate Cox analysis, the combination of albumin >3.5 g/dL and the absence of both PVT and multifocality had the best survival rate, while all combinations that included the presence of PVT had poor survival and hazard ratios. We identified four clinical phenotypes, each with a distinct median survival: patients with or without PVT or multifocality plus serum albumin ≥3.5 (g/dL), with each subgroup displaying high (≥100 IU/mL) or low (<100 IU/mL) blood AFP levels. Across a range of MTDs, we identified only two significant trends, blood AFP and platelets. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with large HCCs have distinct phenotypes and survival, as identified by the combination of PVT, multifocality, and blood albumin levels.

Monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma: How much does size matter?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system, monofocal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is classified as early (BCLC A) irrespective of its size, even though controversies still exist regarding staging and treatment of large tumours. We aimed at evaluating the appropriate staging and treatment for large (>5 cm) monofocal (HCC). METHODS: From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we selected 924 patients with small early monofocal HCC (2-5 cm; SEM-HCC), 163 patients with larger tumours (>5 cm; LEM-HCC) and 1048 intermediate stage patients (BCLC B). RESULTS: LEM-HCC patients had a worse overall survival (OS) than SEM-HCC (31.0 vs 49.0 months; P < .0001), and this was confirmed at multivariate analysis (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.29-2.05; P < .0001). The small difference in OS between LEM-HCC and BCLC B patients (31.0 vs 27.0 months; P = .03) disappeared in the multivariate model (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.77-1.25; P = .89). In all monofocal tumours, treatment was the strongest independent predictor of survival, with a progressively decreasing survival benefit moving from "curative" to "palliative" therapies. The survival of resected patients with LEM-HCC was significantly shorter than that of SEM-HCC (44.0 vs 78.0 months; P = .002), but liver resection provided the highest survival benefit in both groups compared to other treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Monofocal HCC larger than 5 cm should not be staged as BCLC A and either a different staging system or a different subgrouping of patients (e.g. BCLC AB) should be used. Liver resection, if feasible, remains the recommended treatment for all these patients.

The changing scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is changing in most areas of the world. This study aimed at updating the changing scenario of aetiology, clinical presentation, management and prognosis of HCC in Italy during the last 15 years. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database included 6034 HCC patients managed in 23 centres from 2004 to 2018. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018). RESULTS: The main results were: (i) a progressive patient ageing; (ii) a progressive increase of non-viral cases and, particularly, of 'metabolic' and 'metabolic + alcohol' HCCs; (iii) a slightly decline of cases diagnosed under surveillance, but with an incremental use of the semiannual schedule; (iv) a favourable cancer stage migration; (v) an increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) an improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients) in the last calendar period, particularly in viral patients; (viii) a large gap between the number of potential candidates (according to oncologic criteria and age) to liver transplant and that of transplanted patients. CONCLUSIONS: During the last 15 years several aspects of HCC scenario have changed, as well as its management. The improvement in patient survival observed in the last period was likely because of a larger use of thermal ablation with respect to the less effective alcohol injection and to an improved management of intermediate stage patients.

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival. RESULTS: After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage. CONCLUSION: The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

Long term results of down-staging and liver transplantation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond the conventional criteria.

The objective of the study is to evaluate 10 years of down-staging strategy for liver transplantation (LT) with a median follow-up of 5 years. Data on long-term results are poor and less information is available for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) non-responder patients or those ineligible for down-staging. The outcome of 308 HCC candidates and the long-term results of 231 LTs for HCC performed between 2003 and 2013 were analyzed. HCCs were divided according to tumor stage and response to therapy: 145 patients were T2 (metering Milan Criteria, MC), 43 were T3 successfully down-staged to T2 (Down-Achieved), 20 were T3 not fully down-staged to T2 (Down-not Achieved), and 23 patients were T3 not receiving down-staging treatments (No-Down). The average treatment effect (ATE) of LT for T3 tumors was estimated using the outcome of 535 T3 patients undergoing non-LT therapies, using inverse probability weighting regression adjustment. The 24-month drop-out rate during waiting time was significantly higher in the down-staging groups: 27.6% vs. 9.2%, p < 0.005. After LT, the tumor recurrence rate was significantly different: MC 7.6%, Down-Achieved 20.9%, Down-not Achieved 31.6%, and No-Down 30.4% (p < 0.001). The survival rates at 5 years were: 63% in Down-Achieved, 62% in Down-not Achieved, 63% in No-Down, and 77% in MC (p = n.s.). The only variable related to a better outcome was the effective down-staging to T2 at the histological evaluation of the explanted liver: recurrence rate = 7.8% vs. 26% (p < 0.001) and 5-year patient survival = 76% vs. 67% (p < 0.05). The ATE estimation showed that the mean survival of T3-LT candidates was significantly better than that of T3 patients ineligible for LT [83.3 vs 39.2 months (+44.6 months); p < 0.001]. Long term outcome of T3 down-staged candidates was poorer than that of MC candidates, particularly for cases not achieving down-staging. However, their survival outcome was significantly better than that achieved with non-transplant therapies.

Restaging Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Additional Treatment Decisions: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Prognostic assessment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the time of diagnosis remains controversial and becomes even more complex at the time of restaging when new variables need to be considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of restaging patients before proceeding with additional therapies for HCC. Two independent Italian prospective databases were used to identify 1,196 (training cohort) and 648 (validation cohort) consecutive patients with HCC treated over the same study period (2008-2015) who had complete restaging before decisions about additional therapies. The performance of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic score at restaging was compared with that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program systems. A multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed to identify baseline, restaging, or dynamic variables that were able to improve the predictive performance of the prognostic systems. At restaging, 35.3% of patients maintained stable disease; most patients were either down-staged by treatment (27.2%) or had disease progression (37.5%). The ITA.LI.CA scoring system at restaging demonstrated the best prognostic performance in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.707 and 0.722, respectively) among all systems examined. On multivariable analysis, several variables improved the prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA score at restaging, including progressive disease after the first treatment, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at restaging, and choice of nonsurgical treatment as additional therapy. A new ITA.LI.CA restaging model was created that demonstrated high discriminative power in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.753 and 0.745, respectively). CONCLUSION: Although the ITA.LI.CA score demonstrated the best prognostic performance at restaging, other variables should be considered to improve the prognostic assessment of patients at the time of deciding additional therapies for HCC.

Correction: Application of the Intermediate-Stage Subclassification to Patients With Untreated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

In the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) Group, contributor name Alberta Capelli is misspelled and should be corrected to Alberta Cappelli.

Metabolic disorders across hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology. METHODS: We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features. RESULTS: As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P = .021), larger tumours (P = .038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P = .007] and MELD < 10 [P = .003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P = .024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P = .010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P = .012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P = .046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our "real world" study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival.

Utility of Tumor Burden Score to Stratify Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Cancer: Results of 4759 Cases from ITA.LI.CA Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Dichotomous models like Milan Criteria represent the routinely used tools for predicting the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, a paradigm shift from a dichotomous to continuous prognostic stratification should represent a good strategy for improving the prediction process. Recently, the tumor burden score (TBS) has been proposed for selecting patients with colorectal liver metastases. To date, TBS has not been validated in a large HCC population. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic power of TBS in an HCC population treated with different curative and palliative modalities. METHODS: Prospectively collected data from consecutive HCC patients managed in 24 institutions participating in the ITA.LI.CA group between Jan 2002 and Mar 2015 were analyzed (n = 4759). A sub-analysis focused on 3909 patients with the radiological evidence of vascular invasion or metastatic disease was also performed. RESULTS: TBS demonstrated the best discriminative ability when compared to MC and other tumor-specific scores. At multivariable Cox regression analysis, TBS was an independent risk factor of overall survival, with a 6% increased risk for patient death for each point increase in TBS. At survival analysis, when TBS ≥ 8 was connected with MELD ≥ 15 and alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 1000 ng/mL, patients presenting all these three risk factors presented the worst results (p value < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Survival prediction of HCC patients was very well done using TBS model, even stratifying the population in relation to the presence of metastases and/or vascular invasion. TBS model was the best in terms of discriminatory ability and goodness of fit when compared with other continuous or binary variables. Its incorporation in a model composed by tumor- and liver function-related variables further increases its survival prediction.