Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle.

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions. These mass action interactions are approximated through the multiplication of the spatial distribution of zoonotic virus diversity and human population density. Although our results indicate higher risk in regions along the equator and in Southeast Asia where both virus diversity and human population density are high, it should be noted that this is primarily a conceptual exercise. We compared our spillover risk map to key factors, including the model inputs of zoonotic virus diversity estimate map, human population density map, and the spatial distribution of species richness. Despite the limitations of this approach, this viral spillover map is a step towards developing a more comprehensive spillover risk prediction system to inform global monitoring.

The exposure of the world's mountains to global change drivers.

Global change affects mountain areas at different levels, with some mountains being more exposed to change in climate or environmental conditions and others acting as local refugia. We quantified the exposure of the world's mountains to three drivers of change, climate, land use, and human population density, using two spatial-temporal metrics (velocity and magnitude of change). We estimated the acceleration of change for these drivers by comparing past (1975-2005) vs. future (2020-2050) exposure, and we also compared exposure in lowlands vs. mountains. We found Africa's tropical mountains facing the highest future exposure to multiple drivers of change, thus requiring targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve biodiversity. European and North America's mountains, in contrast, experience more limited exposure to global change and could act as local refugia for biodiversity. This knowledge can be used to prioritize local-scale interventions and planning long-term monitoring to reduce the risks faced by mountain biodiversity.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

A protocol for harvesting biodiversity data from Facebook.

The expanding use of community science platforms has led to an exponential increase in biodiversity data in global repositories. Yet, understanding of species distributions remains patchy. Biodiversity data from social media can potentially reduce the global biodiversity knowledge gap. However, practical guidelines and standardized methods for harvesting such data are nonexistent. Following data privacy and protection safeguards, we devised a standardized method for extracting species distribution records from Facebook groups that allow access to their data. It involves 3 steps: group selection, data extraction, and georeferencing the record location. We present how to structure keywords, search for species photographs, and georeference localities for such records. We further highlight some challenges users might face when extracting species distribution data from Facebook and suggest solutions. Following our proposed framework, we present a case study on Bangladesh's biodiversity-a tropical megadiverse South Asian country. We scraped nearly 45,000 unique georeferenced records across 967 species and found a median of 27 records per species. About 12% of the distribution data were for threatened species, representing 27% of all species. We also obtained data for 56 DataDeficient species for Bangladesh. If carefully harvested, social media data can significantly reduce global biodiversity knowledge gaps. Consequently, developing an automated tool to extract and interpret social media biodiversity data is a research priority.

Un protocolo para recolectar datos sobre biodiversidad en Facebook Resumen El uso creciente de plataformas de ciencia comunitaria ha causado un incremento exponencial de los datos sobre biodiversidad en los repositorios mundiales. Sin embargo, el conocimiento sobre la distribución de las especies todavía está incompleto. Los datos sobre biodiversidad obtenidos de las redes sociales tienen el potencial para disminuir el vacío de conocimiento sobre la biodiversidad mundial. No obstante, no existe una guía práctica o un método estandarizado para recolectar dichos datos. Seguimos los protocolos de privacidad y protección de datos para diseñar un método estandarizado para extraer registros de la distribución de especies de grupos en Facebook que permiten el acceso a sus datos. El método consta de tres pasos: selección del grupo, extracción de datos y georreferenciación de la localidad registrada. También planteamos cómo estructurar las palabras clave, buscar fotografías de especies y georreferenciar las localidades de dichos registros. Además, resaltamos algunos retos que los usuarios pueden enfrentar al extraer los datos de distribución de Facebook y sugerimos algunas soluciones. Aplicamos nuestro marco de trabajo propuesto a un estudio de caso de la biodiversidad en Bangladesh, un país tropical megadiverso en el sureste de Asia. Reunimos casi 45,000 registros georreferenciados únicos para 967 especies y encontramos una media de 27 registros por especie. Casi el 12% de los datos de distribución correspondió a especies amenazadas, que representaban el 27% de todas las especies. También obtuvimos datos para 56 especies deficientes de datos en Bangladesh. Si los datos de las redes sociales se recolectan con cuidado, éstos pueden reducir de forma significativa el vacío de conocimiento para la biodiversidad mundial. Como consecuencia, es una prioridad para la investigación el desarrollo de una herramienta automatizada para extraer e interpretar los datos sobre biodiversidad de las redes sociales.

Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments.

Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

Using social media records to inform conservation planning.

Citizen science plays a crucial role in helping monitor biodiversity and inform conservation. With the widespread use of smartphones, many people share biodiversity information on social media, but this information is still not widely used in conservation. Focusing on Bangladesh, a tropical megadiverse and mega-populated country, we examined the importance of social media records in conservation decision-making. We collated species distribution records for birds and butterflies from Facebook and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), grouped them into GBIF-only and combined GBIF and Facebook data, and investigated the differences in identifying critical conservation areas. Adding Facebook data to GBIF data improved the accuracy of systematic conservation planning assessments by identifying additional important conservation areas in the northwest, southeast, and central parts of Bangladesh, extending priority conservation areas by 4,000-10,000 km2 . Community efforts are needed to drive the implementation of the ambitious Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets, especially in megadiverse tropical countries with a lack of reliable and up-to-date species distribution data. We highlight that conservation planning can be enhanced by including available data gathered from social media platforms.

Registros de las redes sociales para guiar la planeación de la conservación Resumen La ciencia ciudadana es importante para monitorear la biodiversidad e informar la conservación. Con el creciente uso de los teléfonos inteligentes, muchas personas comparten información de la biodiversidad en redes sociales, pero todavía no se usa ampliamente en la conservación. Analizamos la importancia de los registros de las redes sociales para las decisiones de conservación enfocados en Bangladesh, un país tropical megadiverso y mega poblado. Cotejamos los registros de distribución de especies de aves y mariposas en Facebook y Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), las agrupamos en datos sólo de GBIF o datos combinados de Facebook y GBIF e investigamos las diferencias en la identificación de las áreas de conservación críticas. La combinación de los datos de Facebook con los de GBIF mejoró la precisión de las evaluaciones de la planeación de la conservación sistemática al identificar otras áreas importantes de conservación en el noroeste, sureste y centro de Bangladesh, extendiendo así las áreas prioritarias de conservación en unos 4,000-10,000 km2 . Se requieren esfuerzos comunitarios para impulsar la implementación de los objetivos ambiciosos del Marco Global de Biodiversidad Kunming-Montreal, especialmente en países tropicales que carecen de datos confiables y actuales sobre la distribución de las especies. Destacamos que la planeación de la conservación puede mejorarse si se incluye información tomada de las redes sociales.

A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.

Una estrategia estándar para incluir las respuestas al cambio climático en las evaluaciones de la Lista Roja de la UICN Resumen La Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) es una herramienta central para el monitoreo del riesgo de extinción e influye sobre las acciones y políticas para la biodiversidad. Para que esta herramienta sea efectiva, es crucial que tenga en cuenta de manera regular cada factor de extinción. El cambio climático se está convirtiendo rápidamente en un factor de extinción importante, pero considerar información sobre este factor todavía es un reto para la UICN. Se pueden usar varios métodos para predecir la declinación de una especie en el futuro, pero generalmente fallan en proporcionar estimaciones de los síntomas del peligro usados por la UICN. Diseñamos un método estandarizado para medir el impacto del cambio climático en términos del cambio en la calidad del hábitat para informar el criterio A3 sobre la reducción futura de las poblaciones. Usamos a los tetrápodos terrestres no voladores como estudio de caso para medir este impacto como la diferencia entre el nicho climático actual y futuro de las especies, definido con base en las variables bioclimáticas actuales y futuras con algoritmos de modelos alternativos, escenarios de dispersión y emisión y modelos climáticos. Nuestros modelos identificaron 171 especies (13% de las especies analizadas) para las que su categoría actual en la lista roja podría empeorar bajo el criterio A3 si no logran dispersarse más allá de su distribución actual en el futuro. Las categorías para 14 especies (1.5%) podrían empeorar si es posible la dispersión máxima. Aunque realizamos una simulación y no una evaluación formal para listas rojas, nuestros resultados sugieren que considerar los impactos del cambio climático podría reducir la clasificación incorrecta y fortalecer la coherencia y exhaustividad de las evaluaciones de la Lista Roja de la UICN.

Dissimilarity of vertebrate trophic interactions reveals spatial uniqueness but functional redundancy across Europe.

Identifying areas that contain species assemblages not found elsewhere in a region is central to conservation planning.1,2 Species assemblages contain networks of species interactions that underpin species dynamics,3,4 ecosystem processes, and contributions to people.5,6,7 Yet the uniqueness of interaction networks in a regional context has rarely been assessed. Here, we estimated the spatial uniqueness of 10,000 terrestrial vertebrate trophic networks across Europe (1,164 species, 50,408 potential interactions8) based on the amount of similarity between all local networks mapped at a 10 km resolution. Our results revealed more unique networks in the Arctic bioregion, but also in southern Europe and isolated islands. We then contrasted the uniqueness of trophic networks with their vulnerability to human footprint and future climate change and measured their coverage within protected areas. This analysis revealed that unique networks situated in southern Europe were particularly exposed to human footprint and that unique networks in the Arctic might be at risk from future climate change. However, considering interaction networks at the level of trophic groups, rather than species, revealed that the general structure of trophic networks was redundant across the continent, in contrast to species' interactions. We argue that proactive European conservation strategies might gain relevance by turning their eyes toward interaction networks that are both unique and vulnerable.

Elevational homogenization of mountain parasitoids across six decades.

Elevational gradients are characterized by strong environmental changes within small geographical distances, providing important insights on the response of biological communities to climate change. Mountain biodiversity is particularly sensitive to climate change, given the limited capacity to colonize new areas and the competition from upshifting lowland species. Knowledge on the impact of climate change on mountain insect communities is patchy, but elevation is known to influence parasitic interactions which control insect communities and functions within ecosystems. We analyzed a European dataset of bristle flies, a parasitoid group which regulates insect herbivory in both managed and natural ecosystems. Our dataset spans six decades and multiple elevational bands, and we found marked elevational homogenization in the host specialization of bristle fly species through time. The proportion of specialized parasitoids has increased by ca. 70% at low elevations, from 17 to 29%, and has decreased by ca. 20% at high elevations, from 48 to 37%. As a result, the strong elevational gradient in bristle fly specialization observed in the 1960s has become much flatter over time. As climate warming is predicted to accelerate, the disappearance of specialized parasitoids from high elevations might become even faster. This parasitoid homogenization can reshape the ecological function of mountain insect communities, increasing the risk of herbivory outbreak at high elevations. Our results add to the mounting evidence that symbiotic species might be especially at risk from climate change: Monitoring the effects of these changes is urgently needed to define effective conservation strategies for mountain biodiversity.

Targeting of intracellular oncoproteins with peptide-centric CARs.

The majority of oncogenic drivers are intracellular proteins, constraining their immunotherapeutic targeting to mutated peptides (neoantigens) presented by individual human leukocyte antigen (HLA) allotypes1. However, most cancers have a modest mutational burden that is insufficient for generating responses using neoantigen-based therapies2,3. Neuroblastoma is a paediatric cancer that harbours few mutations and is instead driven by epigenetically deregulated transcriptional networks4. Here we show that the neuroblastoma immunopeptidome is enriched with peptides derived from proteins essential for tumorigenesis. We focused on targeting the unmutated peptide QYNPIRTTF discovered on HLA-A*24:02, which is derived from the neuroblastoma-dependency gene and master transcriptional regulator PHOX2B. To target QYNPIRTTF, we developed peptide-centric chimeric antigen receptors (PC-CARs) through a counter panning strategy using predicted potentially cross-reactive peptides. We further proposed that PC-CARs can recognize peptides on additional HLA allotypes when presenting a similar overall molecular surface. Informed by our computational modelling results, we show that PHOX2B PC-CARs also recognize QYNPIRTTF presented by HLA-A*23:01, the most common non-A2 allele in people with African ancestry. Finally, we demonstrate potent and specific killing of neuroblastoma cells expressing these HLAs in vitro and complete tumour regression in mice. These data suggest that PC-CARs have the potential to expand the pool of immunotherapeutic targets to include non-immunogenic intracellular oncoproteins and allow targeting through additional HLA allotypes in a clinical setting.

Prioritizing the reassessment of data-deficient species on the IUCN Red List.

Despite being central to the implementation of conservation policies, the usefulness of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is hampered by the 14% of species classified as data-deficient (DD) because information to evaluate these species' extinction risk was lacking when they were last assessed or because assessors did not appropriately account for uncertainty. Robust methods are needed to identify which DD species are more likely to be reclassified in one of the data-sufficient IUCN Red List categories. We devised a reproducible method to help red-list assessors prioritize reassessment of DD species and tested it with 6887 DD species of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). For each DD species in these groups, we calculated its probability of being classified in a data-sufficient category if reassessed today from covariates measuring available knowledge (e.g., number of occurrence records or published articles available), knowledge proxies (e.g., remoteness of the range), and species characteristics (e.g., nocturnality); calculated change in such probability since last assessment from the increase in available knowledge (e.g., new occurrence records); and determined whether the species might qualify as threatened based on recent rate of habitat loss determined from global land-cover maps. We identified 1907 species with a probability of being reassessed in a data-sufficient category of >0.5; 624 species for which this probability increased by >0.25 since last assessment; and 77 species that could be reassessed as near threatened or threatened based on habitat loss. Combining these 3 elements, our results provided a list of species likely to be data-sufficient such that the comprehensiveness and representativeness of the IUCN Red List can be improved.

Priorización de la reevaluación de las especies con datos deficientes en la Lista Roja de la UICN Resumen No obstante que es fundamental para la implementación de políticas de conservación, la utilidad de la Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) está limitada por el 14% de especies clasificadas con datos deficientes (DD) debido a que la información para evaluar el riesgo de extinción de estas especies no existía cuando fueron evaluadas la última vez o porque los evaluadores no consideraron la incertidumbre apropiadamente. Se requieren métodos robustos para identificar las especies DD con mayor probabilidad de ser reclasificadas en alguna de las categorías en la Lista Roja UICN con datos suficientes. Diseñamos un método reproducible para ayudar a que los evaluadores de la lista roja prioricen la reevaluación de especies DD y lo probamos con 6,887 especies DD de mamíferos, reptiles, anfibios, peces y Odonata (libélulas y caballitos del diablo). Para cada una de las especies DD en estos grupos, calculamos la probabilidad de ser clasificadas en una categoría con datos suficientes si fuera reevaluada hoy a partir de covariables que miden el conocimiento disponible (e.g., número de registros de ocurrencia o artículos publicados disponibles), sustitutos de conocimiento (e.g., extensión del rango de distribución) y características de la especie ((e.g., nocturnidad); calculamos el cambio en tal probabilidad desde la última reevaluación a partir del incremento en el conocimiento disponible (e.g., registros de ocurrencia nuevos); y determinamos si las especies podrían calificar como amenazadas con base en pérdidas de hábitat recientes a partir de mapas globales de cobertura de suelo recientes. Identificamos 1,907 especies con una probabilidad >0.5 de ser reclasificados en una categoría con datos suficientes; 624 especies cuya probabilidad aumentó en >0.25 desde la última evaluación, y 77 especies que podrían ser reclasificadas como casi en peligro con base en la pérdida de hábitat. Combinando estos 3 elementos, nuestros resultados proporcionaron una lista de especies probablemente con datos suficientes de tal modo que la exhaustividad y la representatividad de la Lista Roja de la UICN pueden ser mejoradas.

Operationalizing One Health: Environmental Solutions for Pandemic Prevention.

Human pressure on the environment is increasing the frequency, diversity, and spatial extent of disease outbreaks. Despite international recognition, the interconnection between the health of the environment, animals, and humans has been historically overlooked. Past and current initiatives have often neglected prevention under the One Health preparedness cycle, largely focusing on post-spillover stages. We argue that pandemic prevention initiatives have yet to produce actionable targets and indicators, connected to overarching goals, like it has been done for biodiversity loss and climate change. We show how the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework, already employed by the Convention on Biological Diversity, can be repurposed to operationalize pandemic prevention. Global responses for pandemic prevention should strive for complementarity and synergies among initiatives, better articulating prevention under One Health. Without agreed-upon goals underpinning specific targets and interventions, current global efforts are unlikely to function at the speed and scale necessary to decrease the risk of disease outbreaks that might lead to pandemics. Threats to the environment are not always abatable, but decreasing the likelihood that environmental pressure leads to pandemics, and developing strategies to mitigate these impacts, are both attainable goals.

Opportunities and challenges for Common Agricultural Policy reform to support the European Green Deal.

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the European Union's main instrument for agricultural planning, with a new reform approved for 2023-2027. The CAP intends to align with the European Green Deal (EGD), a set of policy initiatives underpinning sustainable development and climate neutrality in the European Union (EU), but several flaws cast doubts about the compatibility of the objectives of these 2 policies. We reviewed recent literature on the potential of CAP environmental objectives for integration with the EGD: protection of biodiversity, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainable management of natural resources. The CAP lacks appropriate planning measures, furthering instead risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services driven by landscape and biotic homogenization. Funding allocation mechanisms are not tailored to mitigate agricultural emissions, decreasing the efficiency of climate mitigation actions. The legislation subsidies farmers making extensive use of synthetic inputs without adequately supporting organic production, hindering the transition toward sustainable practices. We recommend proper control mechanisms be introduced in CAP Strategic Plans from each member state to ensure the EU is set on a sustainable production and consumption path. These include proportional assignment of funds to each CAP objective, quantitative targets to set goals and evidence-based interventions, and relevant indicators to facilitate effective monitoring of environmental performance. Both the CAP and the EGD should maintain ambitious environmental commitments in the face of crisis to avoid further degradation of the natural resources on which production systems stand.

Oportunidades y retos para la reforma a la Política Agrícola Común que respalden el Pacto Verde Europeo Resumen La Política Agrícola Común (PAC) es el principal instrumento de planificación agraria de la Unión Europea, con una nueva reforma aprobada para 2023-2027. La PAC pretende alinearse con el Pacto Verde Europeo (PVE), un conjunto de iniciativas políticas que apuntan al desarrollo sostenible y la neutralidad climática en la UE, aunque varias fallas han arrojado dudas sobre la compatibilidad de los objetivos de estas dos políticas. Revisamos la bibliografía reciente sobre el potencial de integración de los objetivos medioambientales de la PAC con el PVE en tres categorías: protección de la biodiversidad; mitigación del cambio climático y adaptación al mismo y, gestión sostenible de los recursos naturales. Encontramos que la PAC carece de medidas de planificación adecuadas, lo que agrava los riesgos para la biodiversidad y los servicios ambientales derivados de la homogeneización biótica y paisajística. Los mecanismos de asignación de fondos no están adaptados para mitigar las emisiones agrícolas, lo que disminuye la eficiencia de las acciones de mitigación del cambio climático. La legislación subsidia a los agricultores que hacen un uso extensivo de insumos sintéticos sin apoyar adecuadamente la producción ecológica, obstaculizando la transición hacia prácticas sostenibles. Recomendamos que se introduzcan mecanismos de control adecuados en los Planes Estratégicos de la PAC de cada Estado miembro para garantizar que la UE se encamina hacia una producción y un consumo sostenibles. Estos mecanismos incluyen la asignación proporcional de fondos a cada objetivo de la PAC, objetivos cuantitativos para fijar metas e intervenciones basadas en pruebas, e indicadores pertinentes para facilitar un seguimiento eficaz de los resultados medioambientales. Tanto la PAC como el PVE deben mantener compromisos medioambientales ambiciosos frente a la crisis para evitar una mayor degradación de los recursos naturales sobre los que se asientan los sistemas de producción.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates.

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.

Las montañas se encuentran entre los sistemas naturales más afectados por el cambio climático y se considera a los mamíferos montanos en un peligro particular debido a su alto nivel de especialización en condiciones ambientales dentro de un rango muy reducido de tolerancia. Las políticas de mitigación del cambio climático, como el Acuerdo de París, son esenciales para frenar el impacto del cambio climático sobre los sistemas naturales. ¿Pero cuán significativo es el Acuerdo de París para la supervivencia de los mamíferos montanos? Analizamos cómo los escenarios alternativos de emisiones pueden determinar el cambio en el nicho climático efectivo de los carnívoros y ungulados montanos en el 2050. Basamos nuestras predicciones del cambio en los nichos de las especies con base en cómo éstas han respondido a cambios ambientales anteriores, con un énfasis en las probabilidades de la reducción y la estabilidad del nicho. Descubrimos que lograr los compromisos del Acuerdo de París reduciría sustancialmente la inestabilidad climática para las especies montanas. En concreto, mantener el calentamiento global debajo de los 1.5°C reduciría la probabilidad de reducción del nicho en un 4% en comparación con un escenario de emisiones altas. A nivel mundial, los carnívoros mostraron una reducción de nicho mayor que el de los ungulados, mientras que los ungulados tuvieron mayor probabilidad de cambiar sus nichos (es decir, enfrentar un nivel de cambio climático que permite la adaptación). Veintitrés especies amenazadas por el cambio climático según la Lista Roja de la UICN tuvieron una mayor contracción del nicho que otras especies que analizamos (3% más alto, en promedio). Por esto argumentamos que las políticas de mitigación deben emparejarse con la intervención rápida de conservación específica por especie y las políticas de uso de suelo sustentable para evitar el riesgo elevado de pérdida de especies ya vulnerables. Escenarios de cambio en el nicho climático efectivo de carnívoros y ungulados montanos.

Area of Habitat maps for the world's terrestrial birds and mammals.

Area of Habitat (AOH) is "the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range". It complements a geographic range map for a species by showing potential occupancy and reducing commission errors. AOH maps are produced by subtracting areas considered unsuitable for the species from their range map, using information on each species' associations with habitat and elevation. We present AOH maps for 5,481 terrestrial mammal and 10,651 terrestrial bird species (including 1,816 migratory bird species for which we present separate maps for the resident, breeding and non-breeding areas). Our maps have a resolution of 100 m. On average, AOH covered 66 ± 28% of the range maps for mammals and 64 ± 27% for birds. The AOH maps were validated independently, following a novel two-step methodology: a modelling approach to identify outliers and a species-level approach based on point localities. We used AOH maps to produce global maps of the species richness of mammals, birds, globally threatened mammals and globally threatened birds.

Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness.

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%, respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.

Reptile research shows new avenues and old challenges for extinction risk modelling.

In a new PLOS Biology paper, de Oliveira Caetano and colleagues presented an innovative method to estimate extinction risk in reptile species worldwide. The method shows a promising avenue to support Red List assessment, alongside some well-known challenges.

The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity.

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

Matrix condition mediates the effects of habitat fragmentation on species extinction risk.

Habitat loss is the leading cause of the global decline in biodiversity, but the influence of human pressure within the matrix surrounding habitat fragments remains poorly understood. Here, we measure the relationship between fragmentation (the degree of fragmentation and the degree of patch isolation), matrix condition (measured as the extent of high human footprint levels), and the change in extinction risk of 4,426 terrestrial mammals. We find that the degree of fragmentation is strongly associated with changes in extinction risk, with higher predictive importance than life-history traits and human pressure variables. Importantly, we discover that fragmentation and the matrix condition are stronger predictors of risk than habitat loss and habitat amount. Moreover, the importance of fragmentation increases with an increasing deterioration of the matrix condition. These findings suggest that restoration of the habitat matrix may be an important conservation action for mitigating the negative effects of fragmentation on biodiversity.