Consistent spatial scaling of high-severity wildfire can inform expected future patterns of burn severity.

Increasing wildfire activity in forests worldwide has driven urgency in understanding current and future fire regimes. Spatial patterns of area burned at high severity strongly shape forest resilience and constitute a key dimension of fire regimes, yet remain difficult to predict. To characterize the range of burn severity patterns expected within contemporary fire regimes, we quantified scaling relationships relating fire size to patterns of burn severity. Using 1615 fires occurring across the Northwest United States between 1985 and 2020, we evaluated scaling relationships within fire regimes and tested whether relationships vary across space and time. Patterns of high-severity fire demonstrate consistent scaling behaviour; as fire size increases, high-severity patches consistently increase in size and homogeneity. Scaling relationships did not differ substantially across space or time at the scales considered here, suggesting that as fire-size distributions potentially shift, stationarity in patch-size scaling can be used to infer future patterns of burn severity.

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Estimating retention benchmarks for salvage logging to protect biodiversity.

Forests are increasingly affected by natural disturbances. Subsequent salvage logging, a widespread management practice conducted predominantly to recover economic capital, produces further disturbance and impacts biodiversity worldwide. Hence, naturally disturbed forests are among the most threatened habitats in the world, with consequences for their associated biodiversity. However, there are no evidence-based benchmarks for the proportion of area of naturally disturbed forests to be excluded from salvage logging to conserve biodiversity. We apply a mixed rarefaction/extrapolation approach to a global multi-taxa dataset from disturbed forests, including birds, plants, insects and fungi, to close this gap. We find that 75 ± 7% (mean ± SD) of a naturally disturbed area of a forest needs to be left unlogged to maintain 90% richness of its unique species, whereas retaining 50% of a naturally disturbed forest unlogged maintains 73 ± 12% of its unique species richness. These values do not change with the time elapsed since disturbance but vary considerably among taxonomic groups.

Corralling a black swan: natural range of variation in a forest landscape driven by rare, extreme events.

The natural range of variation (NRV) is an important reference for ecosystem management, but has been scarcely quantified for forest landscapes driven by infrequent, severe disturbances. Extreme events such as large, stand-replacing wildfires at multi-century intervals are typical for these regimes; however, data on their characteristics are inherently scarce, and, for land management, these events are commonly considered too large and unpredictable to integrate into planning efforts (the proverbial "Black Swan"). Here, we estimate the NRV of late-seral (mature/old-growth) and early-seral (post-disturbance, pre-canopy-closure) conditions in a forest landscape driven by episodic, large, stand-replacing wildfires: the Western Cascade Range of Washington, USA (2.7 million ha). These two seral stages are focal points for conservation and restoration objectives in many regions. Using a state-and-transition simulation approach incorporating uncertainty, we assess the degree to which NRV estimates differ under a broad range of literature-derived inputs regarding (1) overall fire rotations and (2) how fire area is distributed through time, as relatively frequent smaller events (less episodic), or fewer but larger events (more episodic). All combinations of literature-derived fire rotations and temporal distributions (i.e., "scenarios") indicate that the largest wildfire events (or episodes) burned up to 105 -106  ha. Under most scenarios, wildfire dynamics produced 5th-95th percentile ranges for late-seral forests of ~47-90% of the region (median 70%), with structurally complex early-seral conditions composing ~1-30% (median 6%). Fire rotation was the main determinant of NRV, but temporal distribution was also important, with more episodic (temporally clustered) fire yielding wider NRV. In smaller landscapes (20,000 ha; typical of conservation reserves and management districts), ranges were 0-100% because fires commonly exceeded the landscape size. Current conditions are outside the estimated NRV, with the majority of the region instead covered by dense mid-seral forests (i.e., a regional landscape with no historical analog). Broad consistency in NRV estimates among widely varied fire regime parameters suggests these ranges are likely relevant even under changing climatic conditions, both historical and future. These results indicate management-relevant NRV estimates can be derived for seral stages of interest in extreme-event landscapes, even when incorporating inherent uncertainties in disturbance regimes.

Climate change, wildfire, and vegetation shifts in a high-inertia forest landscape: Western Washington, U.S.A.

Future vegetation shifts under changing climate are uncertain for forests with infrequent stand-replacing disturbance regimes. These high-inertia forests may have long persistence even with climate change because disturbance-free periods can span centuries, broad-scale regeneration opportunities are fewer relative to frequent-fire systems, and mature tree species are long-lived with relatively high tolerance for sub-optimal growing conditions. Here, we used a combination of empirical and process-based modeling approaches to examine vegetation projections across high-inertia forests of Washington State, USA, under different climate and wildfire futures. We ran our models without forest management (to assess inherent system behavior/potential) and also with wildfire suppression. Projections suggested relatively stable mid-elevation forests through the end of the century despite anticipated increases in wildfire. The largest changes were projected at the lowest and uppermost forest boundaries, with upward expansion of the driest low-elevation forests and contraction of cold, high-elevation subalpine parklands. While forests were overall relatively stable in simulations, increases in early-seral conditions and decreases in late-seral conditions occurred as wildfire became more frequent. With partial fire suppression, projected changes were dampened or delayed, suggesting a potential tool to forestall change in some (but not all) high-inertia forests, especially since extending fire-free periods does little to alter overall fire regimes in these systems. Model projections also illustrated the importance of fire regime context and projection limitations; the time horizon over which disturbances will eventually allow the system to shift are so long that the prevailing climatic conditions under which many of those shifts will occur are beyond what most climate models can predict with any certainty. This will present a fundamental challenge to setting expectations and managing for long-term change in these systems.

Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change.

Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi-regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post-fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985-1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post-fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non-forests after wildfires. Major climate-induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.

Impacts of salvage logging on biodiversity: a meta-analysis.

Logging to "salvage" economic returns from forests affected by natural disturbances has become increasingly prevalent globally. Despite potential negative effects on biodiversity, salvage logging is often conducted, even in areas otherwise excluded from logging and reserved for nature conservation, inter alia because strategic priorities for post-disturbance management are widely lacking.A review of the existing literature revealed that most studies investigating the effects of salvage logging on biodiversity have been conducted less than 5 years following natural disturbances, and focused on non-saproxylic organisms.A meta-analysis across 24 species groups revealed that salvage logging significantly decreases numbers of species of eight taxonomic groups. Richness of dead wood dependent taxa (i.e. saproxylic organisms) decreased more strongly than richness of non-saproxylic taxa. In contrast, taxonomic groups typically associated with open habitats increased in the number of species after salvage logging.By analysing 134 original species abundance matrices, we demonstrate that salvage logging significantly alters community composition in 7 of 17 species groups, particularly affecting saproxylic assemblages.Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest that salvage logging is not consistent with the management objectives of protected areas. Substantial changes, such as the retention of dead wood in naturally disturbed forests, are needed to support biodiversity. Future research should investigate the amount and spatio-temporal distribution of retained dead wood needed to maintain all components of biodiversity.

The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific.

Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects seeking to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through field inventories. To streamline C quantification in mangrove conservation projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We compile datasets of mangrove biomass C (197 observations from 48 sites) and soil organic C (99 observations from 27 sites) to parameterize the predictive models, and use linear mixed effect models to model the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, which are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets and indicate significant heterogeneity across-sites within the region. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm3 (14.1% of mean soil C). The results point to a need for standardization of forest metrics to facilitate meta-analyses, as well as provide important considerations for refining ecosystem C stock models in mangroves.

Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks.

Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes.

Burn me twice, shame on who? Interactions between successive forest fires across a temperate mountain region.

Increasing rates of natural disturbances under a warming climate raise important questions about how multiple disturbances interact. Escalating wildfire activity in recent decades has resulted in some forests re-burning in short succession, but how the severity of one wildfire affects that of a subsequent wildfire is not fully understood. We used a field-validated, satellite-derived, burn-severity atlas to assess interactions between successive wildfires across the US Northern Rocky Mountains a 300,000-km2 region dominated by fire-prone forests. In areas that experienced two wildfires between 1984 and 2010, we asked: (1) How do overall frequency distributions of burn-severity classes compare between first and second fires? (2) In a given location, how does burn severity of the second fire relate to that of the first? (3) Do interactions between successive fires vary by forest zone or the interval between fires? (4) What factors increase the probability of burning twice as stand-replacing fire? Within the study area, 138,061 ha burned twice between 1984 and 2010. Overall, frequency distributions of burn severity classes (low, moderate, high; quantified using relativized remote sensing indices) were similar between the first and second fires; however burn severity was 5-13% lower in second fires on average. Negative interactions between fires were most pronounced in lower-elevation forests and woodlands, when fire intervals were <10 yr, and when burn severity was low in the first fire. When the first fire burned as high severity and fire intervals exceeded 10-12 yr, burn-severity interactions switched from negative to positive, with high-severity fire begetting subsequent high-severity fire. Locations most likely to experience successive stand-replacing fires were high-elevation forests, which are adapted to high-severity fire, and areas conducive to abundant post-fire tree regeneration. Broadly similar severities among short-interval "re-burns" and other wildfires indicate that positive severity feedbacks, an oft-posited agent of ecosystem decline or state shift, are not an inevitable outcome of re-burning. Nonetheless, context-dependent shifts in both the magnitude and direction of wildfire interactions (associated with forest zone, initial burn-severity, and disturbance interval) illustrate complexities in disturbance interactions and can inform management and predictions of future system dynamics.

Legacy of Pre-Disturbance Spatial Pattern Determines Early Structural Diversity following Severe Disturbance in Montane Spruce Forests.

BACKGROUND: Severe canopy-removing disturbances are native to many temperate forests and radically alter stand structure, but biotic legacies (surviving elements or patterns) can lend continuity to ecosystem function after such events. Poorly understood is the degree to which the structural complexity of an old-growth forest carries over to the next stand. We asked how pre-disturbance spatial pattern acts as a legacy to influence post-disturbance stand structure, and how this legacy influences the structural diversity within the early-seral stand. METHODS: Two stem-mapped one-hectare forest plots in the Czech Republic experienced a severe bark beetle outbreak, thus providing before-and-after data on spatial patterns in live and dead trees, crown projections, down logs, and herb cover. RESULTS: Post-disturbance stands were dominated by an advanced regeneration layer present before the disturbance. Both major species, Norway spruce (Picea abies) and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), were strongly self-aggregated and also clustered to former canopy trees, pre-disturbance snags, stumps and logs, suggesting positive overstory to understory neighbourhood effects. Thus, although the disturbance dramatically reduced the stand's height profile with ~100% mortality of the canopy layer, the spatial structure of post-disturbance stands still closely reflected the pre-disturbance structure. The former upper tree layer influenced advanced regeneration through microsite and light limitation. Under formerly dense canopies, regeneration density was high but relatively homogeneous in height; while in former small gaps with greater herb cover, regeneration density was lower but with greater heterogeneity in heights. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that pre-disturbance spatial patterns of forests can persist through severe canopy-removing disturbance, and determine the spatial structure of the succeeding stand. Such patterns constitute a subtle but key legacy effect, promoting structural complexity in early-seral forests as well as variable successional pathways and rates. This influence suggests a continuity in spatial ecosystem structure that may well persist through multiple forest generations.

Spatial aspects of tree mortality strongly differ between young and old-growth forests.

Rates and spatial patterns of tree mortality are predicted to change during forest structural development. In young forests, mortality should be primarily density dependent due to competition for light, leading to an increasingly spatially uniform pattern of surviving trees. In contrast, mortality in old-growth forests should be primarily caused by contagious and spatially autocorrelated agents (e.g., insects, wind), causing spatial aggregation of surviving trees to increase through time. We tested these predictions by contrasting a three-decade record of tree mortality from replicated mapped permanent plots located in young (< 60-year-old) and old-growth (> 300-year-old) Abies amabilis forests. Trees in young forests died at a rate of 4.42% per year, whereas trees in old-growth forests died at 0.60% per year. Tree mortality in young forests was significantly aggregated, strongly density dependent, and caused live tree patterns to become more uniform through time. Mortality in old-growth forests was spatially aggregated, but was density independent and did not change the spatial pattern of surviving trees. These results extend current theory by demonstrating that density-dependent competitive mortality leading to increasingly uniform tree spacing in young forests ultimately transitions late in succession to a more diverse tree mortality regime that maintains spatial heterogeneity through time.

Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks, wildfire severity, and postfire tree regeneration in the US Northern Rockies.

Widespread tree mortality caused by outbreaks of native bark beetles (Circulionidae: Scolytinae) in recent decades has raised concern among scientists and forest managers about whether beetle outbreaks fuel more ecologically severe forest fires and impair postfire resilience. To investigate this question, we collected extensive field data following multiple fires that burned subalpine forests in 2011 throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains across a spectrum of prefire beetle outbreak severity, primarily from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae). We found that recent (2001-2010) beetle outbreak severity was unrelated to most field measures of subsequent fire severity, which was instead driven primarily by extreme burning conditions (weather) and topography. In the red stage (0-2 y following beetle outbreak), fire severity was largely unaffected by prefire outbreak severity with few effects detected only under extreme burning conditions. In the gray stage (3-10 y following beetle outbreak), fire severity was largely unaffected by prefire outbreak severity under moderate conditions, but several measures related to surface fire severity increased with outbreak severity under extreme conditions. Initial postfire tree regeneration of the primary beetle host tree [lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia)] was not directly affected by prefire outbreak severity but was instead driven by the presence of a canopy seedbank and by fire severity. Recent beetle outbreaks in subalpine forests affected few measures of wildfire severity and did not hinder the ability of lodgepole pine forests to regenerate after fire, suggesting that resilience in subalpine forests is not necessarily impaired by recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks.

Spatially nonrandom tree mortality and ingrowth maintain equilibrium pattern in an old-growth Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest.

Mortality processes in old-growth forests are generally assumed to be driven by gap-scale disturbance, with only a limited role ascribed to density-dependent mortality, but these assumptions are rarely tested with data sets incorporating repeated measurements. Using a 12-ha spatially explicit plot censused 13 years apart in an approximately 500-year-old Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest, we demonstrate significant density-dependent mortality and spatially aggregated tree recruitment. However, the combined effect of these strongly nonrandom demographic processes was to maintain tree patterns in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Density-dependent mortality was most pronounced for the dominant late-successional species, Tsuga heterophylla. The long-lived, early-seral Pseudotsuga menziesii experienced an annual stem mortality rate of 0.84% and no new recruitment. Late-seral species Tsuga and Abies amabilis had nearly balanced demographic rates of ingrowth and mortality. The 2.34% mortality rate for Taxus brevifolia was higher than expected, notably less than ingrowth, and strongly affected by proximity to Tsuga. Large-diameter Tsuga structured both the regenerating conspecific and heterospecific cohorts with recruitment of Tsuga and Abies unlikely in neighborhoods crowded with large-diameter competitors (P < 0.001). Density-dependent competitive interactions strongly shape forest communities even five centuries after stand initiation, underscoring the dynamic nature of even equilibrial old-growth forests.

Fire severity and tree regeneration following bark beetle outbreaks: the role of outbreak stage and burning conditions.

The degree to which recent bark beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks may influence fire severity and postfire tree regeneration is of heightened interest to resource managers throughout western North America, but empirical data on actual fire effects are lacking. Outcomes may depend on burning conditions (i.e., weather during fire), outbreak severity, or intervals between outbreaks and subsequent fire. We studied recent fires that burned through green-attack/red-stage (outbreaks <3 years before fire) and gray-stage (outbreaks 3­15 years before fire) subalpine forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in Greater Yellowstone, Wyoming, USA, to determine if fire severity was linked to prefire beetle outbreak severity and whether these two disturbances produced compound ecological effects on postfire tree regeneration. With field data from 143 postfire plots that burned under different conditions, we assessed canopy and surface fire severity, and postfire tree seedling density against prefire outbreak severity. In the green-attack/red stage, several canopy fire-severity measures increased with prefire outbreak severity under moderate burning conditions. Under extreme conditions, few fire-severity measures were related to prefire outbreak severity, and effect sizes were of marginal biological significance. The percentage of tree stems and basal area killed by fire increased with more green-attack vs. red-stage trees (i.e., the earliest stages of outbreak). In the gray stage, by contrast, most fire-severity measures declined with increasing outbreak severity under moderate conditions, and fire severity was unrelated to outbreak severity under extreme burning conditions. Postfire lodgepole pine seedling regeneration was unrelated to prefire outbreak severity in either post-outbreak stage, but increased with prefire serotiny. Results suggest bark beetle outbreaks can affect fire severity in subalpine forests under moderate burning conditions, but have little effect on fire severity under extreme burning conditions when most large wildfires occur in this system. Thus, beetle outbreak severity was moderately linked to fire severity, but the strength and direction of the linkage depended on both endogenous (outbreak stage) and exogenous (fire weather) factors. Closely timed beetle outbreak and fire did not impart compound effects on tree regeneration, suggesting the presence of a canopy seedbank may enhance resilience to their combined effects.

Bark beetle effects on fuel profiles across a range of stand structures in Douglas-fir forests of Greater Yellowstone.

Consequences of bark beetle outbreaks for forest wildfire potential are receiving heightened attention, but little research has considered ecosystems with mixed-severity fire regimes. Such forests are widespread, variable in stand structure, and often fuel limited, suggesting that beetle outbreaks could substantially alter fire potentials. We studied canopy and surface fuels in interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii v. glauca) forests in Greater Yellowstone, Wyoming, USA, to determine how fuel characteristics varied with time since outbreak of the Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae). We sampled five stands in each of four outbreak stages, validated for pre-outbreak similarity: green (undisturbed), red (1-3 yr), gray (4-14 yr), and silver (25-30 yr). General linear models were used to compare variation in fuel profiles associated with outbreak to variation associated with the range of stand structures (dense mesic forest to open xeric parkland) characteristic of interior Douglas-fir forest. Beetle outbreak killed 38-83% of basal area within stands, generating a mix of live trees and snags over several years. Canopy fuel load and bulk density began declining in the red stage via needle drop and decreased by approximately 50% by the silver stage. The dead portion of available canopy fuels peaked in the red stage at 41%. After accounting for background variation, there was little effect of beetle outbreak on surface fuels, with differences mainly in herbaceous biomass (50% greater in red stands) and coarse woody fuels (doubled in silver stands). Within-stand spatial heterogeneity of fuels increased with time since outbreak, and surface-to-crown continuity decreased and remained low because of slow/sparse regeneration. Collectively, results suggest reduced fire potentials in post-outbreak stands, particularly for crown fire after the red stage, although abundant coarse fuels in silver stands may increase burn residence time and heat release. Outbreak effects on fuels were comparable to background variation in stand structure. The net effect of beetle outbreak was to shift the structure of mnsic closed-canopy stands toward that of parklands, and to shift xeric parklands toward very sparse woodlands. This study highlights the importance of evaluating outbreak effects in the context of the wide structural variation inherent to many forest types in the absence of beetle disturbance.

Influence of recent bark beetle outbreak on fire severity and postfire tree regeneration in montane Douglas-fir forests.

Understanding how disturbances interact to shape ecosystems is a key challenge in ecology. In forests of western North America, the degree to which recent bark beetle outbreaks and subsequent fires may be linked (e.g., outbreak severity affects fire severity) and/ or whether these two disturbances produce compound effects on postfire succession is of widespread interest. These interactions remain unresolved, largely because field data from actual wildfires following beetle outbreaks are lacking. We studied the 2008 Gunbarrel Fire, which burned 27 200 ha in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests that experienced a bark beetle outbreak 4-13 years prefire ("gray stage," after trees have died and needles have dropped), to determine whether outbreak severity influenced subsequent fire severity and postfire tree regeneration. In 85 sample plots we recorded prefire stand structure and outbreak severity; multiple measures of canopy and forest-floor fire severity; and postfire tree seedling density. Prefire outbreak severity was not related to any measure of fire severity except for mean bole scorch, which declined slightly with increasing outbreak severity. Instead, fire severity varied with topography and burning conditions (proxy for weather at time of fire). Postfire Douglas-fir regeneration was low, with tree seedlings absent in 65% of plots. Tree seedlings were abundant in plots of low fire severity that also had experienced low outbreak severity (mean = 1690 seedlings/ha), suggesting a dual filter on tree regeneration. Although bark beetles and fire collectively reduced live basal area to < 5% and increased snag density to > 2000% of pre-outbreak levels, the lack of relationship between beetle outbreak and fire severity suggests that these disturbances were not linked. Nonetheless, effects on postfire tree regeneration suggest compound disturbance interactions that contribute to the structural heterogeneity characteristic of mid/lower montane forests.

Estimating global "blue carbon" emissions from conversion and degradation of vegetated coastal ecosystems.

Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of the three ecosystems, using an uncertainty-propagation approach, we estimate that 0.15-1.02 Pg (billion tons) of carbon dioxide are being released annually, several times higher than previous estimates that account only for lost sequestration. These emissions are equivalent to 3-19% of those from deforestation globally, and result in economic damages of $US 6-42 billion annually. The largest sources of uncertainty in these estimates stems from limited certitude in global area and rates of land-use conversion, but research is also needed on the fates of ecosystem carbon upon conversion. Currently, carbon emissions from the conversion of vegetated coastal ecosystems are not included in emissions accounting or carbon market protocols, but this analysis suggests they may be disproportionally important to both. Although the relevant science supporting these initial estimates will need to be refined in coming years, it is clear that policies encouraging the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems could significantly reduce carbon emissions from the land-use sector, in addition to sustaining the well-recognized ecosystem services of coastal habitats.