Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.

Why do caterpillars whistle at birds? Insect defence sounds startle avian predators.

Many insects produce sounds when attacked by a predator, yet the functions of these signals are poorly understood. It is debated whether such sounds function as startle, warning or alarm signals, or merely serve to augment other defences. Direct evidence is limited owing to difficulties in disentangling the effects of sounds from other defences that often occur simultaneously in live insects. We conducted an experiment to test whether an insect sound can function as a deimatic (i.e. startle) display. Variations of a whistle of the walnut sphinx caterpillar (Amorpha juglandis) were presented to a predator, red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus), when birds activated a sensor while feeding on mealworms (Tenebrio molitor). Birds exposed to whistles played back at natural sound levels exhibited significantly higher startle scores (by flying away, flinching, and hopping) and took longer to return to the feeding dish than during control conditions where no sounds were played. Birds habituated to sounds during a one-hour session, but after two days the startling effects were restored. Our results provide empirical evidence that an insect sound alone can function as a deimatic display against an avian predator. We discuss how whistles might be particularly effective 'acoustic eye spots' on avian predators.