Difference in differences analysis evaluates the effects of the badger control policy on bovine tuberculosis in England.

Persistent tuberculosis (TB) in cattle populations in England has been associated with an exchange of infection with badgers (Meles meles). A badger control policy (BCP) commenced in 2013. Its aim was to decrease TB incidence in cattle by reducing the badger population available to provide a wildlife reservoir for bovine TB. Monitoring data from 52 BCP intervention areas 200-1600 km2 in size, starting over several years, were used to estimate the change in TB incidence rate in cattle herds, which was associated with time since the start of the BCP in each area. A difference in differences analysis addressed the non-random selection and starting sequence of the areas. The herd incidence rate of TB reduced by 56% (95% Confidence Interval 41-69%) up to the fourth year of BCP interventions, with the largest drops in the second and third years. There was insufficient evidence to judge whether the incidence rate reduced further beyond 4 years. These estimates are the most precise for the timing of declines in cattle TB associated with interventions primarily targeting badgers. They are within the range of previous estimates from England and Ireland. This analysis indicates the importance of reducing transmission from badgers to reduce the incidence of TB in cattle, noting that vaccination of badgers, fertility control and on farm biosecurity may also achieve this effect.

Detection of a local Mycobacterium bovis reservoir using cattle surveillance data.

The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in cattle has been associated with TB in badgers (Meles meles) in parts of England. The aim was to identify badger-associated M. bovis reservoirs in the Edge Area, between the High- and Low-Risk Areas for cattle TB. Data from badger TB surveys were sparse. Therefore, a definition for a local M. bovis reservoir potentially shared by cattle and badgers was developed using cattle TB surveillance data. The performance of the definition was estimated through Latent Class Analysis using badger TB survey data. Spatial units (25 km2 ) in the Edge Area were classified as having a reservoir if they had (i) at least one TB incident in at least three of the previous 7 years, (ii) at least one TB incident in a cattle herd confirmed by post-mortem tests as due to M. bovis infection and not attributable to cattle movements in the previous 2 years and (iii) more confirmed TB incidents than un-confirmed in the previous 2 years. Approximately 20% of the Edge Area was classified as having a local M. bovis reservoir using the cattle-based definition. Assuming 15% TB prevalence in Edge Area badgers, sensitivity for the local M. bovis reservoir definition varied from 25.7% [95% credible interval (CrI): 10.7%-85.1%] to 64.8% (95% CrI: 48.1%-88.0%). Specificity was 91.9% (CrI: 83.6%-97.4%). Over 90% of the local reservoir was in stable endemic TB areas identified through previous work and its spatial distribution was largely consistent with local veterinary knowledge. Uncertainty in the reservoir spatial distribution was explored through its recalculation in spatial units shifted in different directions. We recommend that the definition is re-evaluated as further data on badger infection with M. bovis become available.

An assessment of risk compensation and spillover behavioural adaptions associated with the use of vaccines in animal disease management.

This paper analyses farmers' behavioural responses to Government attempts to reduce the risk of disease transmission from badgers to cattle through badger vaccination. Evidence for two opposing behavioural adaptions is examined in response to the vaccination of badgers to reduce the risk of transmission to farmed cattle. Risk compensation theory suggests that interventions that reduce risk, such as vaccination, are counterbalanced by negative behavioural adaptions. By contrast, the spillover effect suggests that interventions can prompt further positive behaviours. The paper uses data from a longitudinal mixed methods study of farmers' attitudes to badger vaccination to prevent the spread of bovine tuberculosis, their reports of biosecurity practices, and cattle movement data in 5 areas of England, one of which experienced badger vaccination. Analysis finds limited evidence of spillover behaviours following vaccination. Lack of spillover is attributed to farmers' beliefs in the effectiveness of biosecurity and the lack of similarity between badger vaccination and vaccination for other animal diseases. Risk compensation behaviours are associated with farmers' beliefs as to who should manage animal disease. Rather than farmers' belief in vaccine effectiveness, it is more likely that farmers' low sense of being able to do anything to prevent disease influences their apparent risk compensation behaviours. These findings address the gap in the literature relating to farmers' behavioural adaptions to vaccine use in the management of animal disease.

Exploring the Risk Posed by Animals with an Inconclusive Reaction to the Bovine Tuberculosis Skin Test in England and Wales.

The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test is the primary test for ante-mortem diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in England and Wales. When an animal is first classified as an inconclusive reactor (IR) using this test, it is not subject to compulsory slaughter, but it must be isolated from the rest of the herd. To understand the risk posed by these animals, a case-control study was conducted to measure the association between IR status of animals and the odds of them becoming a reactor to the SICCT at a subsequent test. The study included all animals from herds in which only IR animals were found at the first whole herd test in 2012 and used data from subsequent tests up until the end of 2016. Separate mixed-effects logistic regression models were developed to examine the relationship between IR status and subsequent reactor status for each risk area of England and for Wales, adjusting for other explanatory variables. The odds of an animal becoming a subsequent reactor during the study period were greater for IR animals than for negative animals in the high-risk area (odds ratio (OR): 6.85 (5.98-7.86)) and edge area (OR: 8.79 (5.92-13.04)) of England and in Wales (OR: 6.87 (5.75-8.22)). In the low-risk area of England, the odds were 23 times greater, although the confidence interval around this estimate was larger due to the smaller sample size (11-48, p < 0.001). These findings support the need to explore differential controls for IR animals to reduce the spread of TB, and they highlight the importance of area-specific policies.

Assessing effects from four years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle, 2013-2017.

The objective was to measure the association between badger culling and bovine tuberculosis (TB) incidents in cattle herds in three areas of England between 2013-2017 (Gloucestershire and Somerset) and 2015-2017 (Dorset). Farming industry-selected licensed culling areas were matched to comparison areas. A TB incident was detection of new Mycobacterium bovis infection (post-mortem confirmed) in at least one animal in a herd. Intervention and comparison area incidence rates were compared in central zones where culling was conducted and surrounding buffer zones, through multivariable Poisson regression analyses. Central zone incidence rates in Gloucestershire (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.34 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.39, p < 0.001) and Somerset (IRR 0.63 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.69, p < 0.001) were lower and no different in Dorset (IRR 1.10, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.27, p = 0.168) than comparison central zone rates. The buffer zone incidence rate was lower for Gloucestershire (IRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.70, p < 0.001), no different for Somerset (IRR 0.97, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.16, p = 0.767) and lower for Dorset (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.54, p < 0.001) than comparison buffer zone rates. Industry-led culling was associated with reductions in cattle TB incidence rates after four years but there were variations in effects between areas.

Exploring the Fate of Cattle Herds With Inconclusive Reactors to the Tuberculin Skin Test.

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important animal health issue in many parts of the world. In England and Wales, the primary test to detect infected animals is the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin test, which compares immunological responses to bovine and avian tuberculins. Inconclusive test reactors (IRs) are animals that demonstrate a positive reaction to the bovine tuberculin only marginally greater than the avian reaction, so are not classified as reactors and immediately removed. In the absence of reactors in the herd, IRs are isolated, placed under movement restrictions and re-tested after 60 days. Other animals in these herds at the time of the IR result are not usually subject to movement restrictions. This could affect efforts to control TB if undetected infected cattle move out of those herds before the next TB test. To improve our understanding of the importance of IRs, this study aimed to assess whether median survival time and the hazard of a subsequent TB incident differs in herds with only IRs detected compared with negative-testing herds. Survival analysis and extended Cox regression were used, with herds entering the study on the date of the first whole herd test in 2012. An additional analysis was performed using an alternative entry date to try to remove the impact of IR retesting and is presented in the Supplementary Material. Survival analysis showed that the median survival time among IR only herds was half that observed for clear herds (2.1 years and 4.2 years respectively; p < 0.001). Extended Cox regression analysis showed that IR-only herds had 2.7 times the hazard of a subsequent incident compared with negative-testing herds in year one (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% CI: 2.54, 2.84; p < 0.001), and that this difference in the hazard reduced by 63% per year. After 2.7 years the difference had disappeared. The supplementary analysis supported these findings showing that IR only herds still had a greater hazard of a subsequent incident after the IR re-test, but that the effect was reduced. This emphasizes the importance of careful decision making around the management of IR animals and indicates that re-testing alone may not be sufficient to reduce the risk posed by IR only herds in England and Wales.

Methodology and preliminary results of a systematic literature review of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis.

A systematic review was conducted to identify studies with data for statistical meta-analyses of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. Members of a working group (WG) developed and tested search criteria and developed a standardised two-stage review process, to identify primary studies with numerator and denominator data for test performance and an agreed range of covariate data. No limits were applied to year, language, region or type of test in initial searches of electronic databases. In stage 1, titles and available abstracts were reviewed. References that complied with stage 1 selection criteria were reviewed in entirety and agreed data were extracted from references that complied with stage 2 selection criteria. At stage 1, 9782 references were reviewed and 261 (2.6%) passed through to stage 2 where 215 English language references were each randomly allocated to two of 18 WG reviewers and 46 references in other languages were allocated to native speakers. Agreement regarding eligibility between reviewers of the same reference at stage 2 was moderate (Kappa statistic = 0.51) and a resolution procedure was conducted. Only 119 references (published 1934-2009) were identified with eligible performance estimates for one or more of 14 different diagnostic test types; despite a comprehensive search strategy and the global impact of bTB. Searches of electronic databases for diagnostic test performance data were found to be nonspecific with regard to identifying references with diagnostic test Se or Sp data. Guidelines for the content of abstracts to research papers reporting diagnostic test performance are presented. The results of meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of the tests, and of an evaluation of the methodological quality of the source references, are presented in accompanying papers (Nuñez-Garcia et al., 2017; Downs et al., 2017).

Meta-analyses of the sensitivity and specificity of ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis in the UK and Ireland.

Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is a global health problem and eradication of the disease requires accurate estimates of diagnostic test performance to optimize their efficiency. The objective of this study was, through statistical meta-analyses, to obtain estimates of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for 14 different ante-mortem and post-mortem diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Using data from a systematic review of the scientific literature (published 1934-2009) diagnostic Se and Sp were estimated using Bayesian logistic regression models adjusting for confounding factors. Random effect terms were used to account for unexplained heterogeneity. Parameters in the models were implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and posterior distributions for the diagnostic parameters with adjustment for covariates (confounding factors) were obtained using the inverse logit function. Estimates for Se and/or Sp of the tuberculin skin tests and the IFN-γ blood test were compared with estimates published 2010-2015. Median Se for the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin skin (SICCT) test (standard interpretation) was 0.50 and Bayesian credible intervals (CrI) were wide (95% CrI 0.26, 0.78). Median Sp for the SICCT test was 1.00 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00). Estimates for the IFN-γ blood test Bovine Purified Protein Derivative (PPD)-Avian PPD and Early Secreted Antigen target 6 and Culture Filtrate Protein 10 (ESAT-6/CFP10) ESAT6/CFP10 were 0.67 (95% CrI 0.49, 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CrI 0.60, 0.90) respectively for Se, and 0.98 (95% CrI 0.96, 0.99) and 0.99 (95% CrI 0.99, 1.00) for Sp. The study provides an overview of the accuracy of a range of contemporary diagnostic tests for bTB in cattle. Better understanding of diagnostic test performance is essential for the design of effective control strategies and their evaluation.

Evaluation of the methodological quality of studies of the performance of diagnostic tests for bovine tuberculosis using QUADAS.

There has been little assessment of the methodological quality of studies measuring the performance (sensitivity and/or specificity) of diagnostic tests for animal diseases. In a systematic review, 190 studies of tests for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle (published 1934-2009) were assessed by at least one of 18 reviewers using the QUADAS (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies) checklist adapted for animal disease tests. VETQUADAS (VQ) included items measuring clarity in reporting (n = 3), internal validity (n = 9) and external validity (n = 2). A similar pattern for compliance was observed in studies of different diagnostic test types. Compliance significantly improved with year of publication for all items measuring clarity in reporting and external validity but only improved in four of the nine items measuring internal validity (p < 0.05). 107 references, of which 83 had performance data eligible for inclusion in a meta-analysis were reviewed by two reviewers. In these references, agreement between reviewers' responses was 71% for compliance, 32% for unsure and 29% for non-compliance. Mean compliance with reporting items was 2, 5.2 for internal validity and 1.5 for external validity. The index test result was described in sufficient detail in 80.1% of studies and was interpreted without knowledge of the reference standard test result in only 33.1%. Loss to follow-up was adequately explained in only 31.1% of studies. The prevalence of deficiencies observed may be due to inadequate reporting but may also reflect lack of attention to methodological issues that could bias the results of diagnostic test performance estimates. QUADAS was a useful tool for assessing and comparing the quality of studies measuring the performance of diagnostic tests but might be improved further by including explicit assessment of population sampling strategy.

Assessing the effects of the first 2 years of industry-led badger culling in England on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in 2013-2015.

Culling badgers to control the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) between this wildlife reservoir and cattle has been widely debated. Industry-led culling began in Somerset and Gloucestershire between August and November 2013 to reduce local badger populations. Industry-led culling is not designed to be a randomized and controlled trial of the impact of culling on cattle incidence. Nevertheless, it is important to monitor the effects of the culling and, taking the study limitations into account, perform a cautious evaluation of the impacts. A standardized method for selecting areas matched to culling areas in factors found to affect cattle TB risk has been developed to evaluate the impact of badger culling on cattle TB incidence. The association between cattle TB incidence and badger culling in the first 2 years has been assessed. Descriptive analyses without controlling for confounding showed no association between culling and TB incidence for Somerset, or for either of the buffer areas for the first 2 years since culling began. A weak association was observed in Gloucestershire for Year 1 only. Multivariable analysis adjusting for confounding factors showed that reductions in TB incidence were associated with culling in the first 2 years in both the Somerset and Gloucestershire intervention areas when compared to areas with no culling (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72-0.87, p < .001 and IRR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.34-0.51, p < .001, respectively). An increase in incidence was associated with culling in the 2-km buffer surrounding the Somerset intervention area (IRR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.09-1.75, p = .008), but not in Gloucestershire (IRR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.77-1.07, p = .243). As only 2 intervention areas with 2 years of data are available for analysis, and the biological cause-effect relationship behind the statistical associations is difficult to determine, it would be unwise to use these findings to develop generalizable inferences about the effectiveness of the policy at present.

Spatial Targeting for Bovine Tuberculosis Control: Can the Locations of Infected Cattle Be Used to Find Infected Badgers?

Bovine tuberculosis is a disease of historical importance to human health in the UK that remains a major animal health and economic issue. Control of the disease in cattle is complicated by the presence of a reservoir species, the Eurasian badger. In spite of uncertainty in the degree to which cattle disease results from transmission from badgers, and opposition from environmental groups, culling of badgers has been licenced in two large areas in England. Methods to limit culls to smaller areas that target badgers infected with TB whilst minimising the number of uninfected badgers culled is therefore of considerable interest. Here, we use historical data from a large-scale field trial of badger culling to assess two alternative hypothetical methods of targeting TB-infected badgers based on the distribution of cattle TB incidents: (i) a simple circular 'ring cull'; and (ii) geographic profiling, a novel technique for spatial targeting of infectious disease control that predicts the locations of sources of infection based on the distribution of linked cases. Our results showed that both methods required coverage of very large areas to ensure a substantial proportion of infected badgers were removed, and would result in many uninfected badgers being culled. Geographic profiling, which accounts for clustering of infections in badger and cattle populations, produced a small but non-significant increase in the proportion of setts with TB-infected compared to uninfected badgers included in a cull. It also provided no overall improvement at targeting setts with infected badgers compared to the ring cull. Cattle TB incidents in this study were therefore insufficiently clustered around TB-infected badger setts to design an efficient spatially targeted cull; and this analysis provided no evidence to support a move towards spatially targeted badger culling policies for bovine TB control.

Evidence for genetic variance in resistance to tuberculosis in Great Britain and Irish Holstein-Friesian populations.

BACKGROUND: Here, we jointly summarise scientific evidence for genetic variation in resistance to infection with Mycobacterium bovis, the primary agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB), provided by two recent and separate studies of Holstein-Friesian dairy cow populations in Great Britain (GB) and Ireland. METHODS: The studies quantified genetic variation within archived data from field and abattoir surveillance control programmes within each country. These data included results from the single intradermal comparative tuberculin test (SICTT), abattoir inspection for TB lesions and laboratory confirmation of disease status. Threshold animal models were used to estimate variance components for responsiveness to the SICTT and abattoir confirmed M. bovis infection. The link functions between the observed 0/1 scale and the liability scale were the complementary log-log in the GB, and logit link function in the Irish population. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The estimated heritability of susceptibility to TB, as judged by responsiveness to the SICTT, was 0.16 (0.012) and 0.14 (0.025) in the GB and Irish populations, respectively. For abattoir or laboratory confirmation of infection, estimates were 0.18 (0.044) and 0.18 (0.041) from the GB and the Irish populations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates were all significantly different from zero and indicate that exploitable variation exists among GB and Irish Holstein Friesian dairy cows for resistance to TB. Epidemiological analysis suggests that factors such as variation in exposure or imperfect sensitivity and specificity would have resulted in underestimation of the true values.

Reduced exposure to PM10 and attenuated age-related decline in lung function.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been associated with impaired health, including reduced lung function in adults. Moving to cleaner areas has been shown to attenuate adverse effects of air pollution on lung function in children but not in adults. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of 9651 adults (18 to 60 years of age) randomly selected from population registries in 1990 and assessed in 1991, with 8047 participants reassessed in 2002. There was complete information on lung volumes and flows (e.g., forced vital capacity [FVC], forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1], FEV1 as a percentage of FVC, and forced expiratory flow between 25 and 75% of the FVC [FEF25-75]), smoking habits, and spatially resolved concentrations of particulate matter that was less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) from a validated dispersion model assigned to residential addresses for 4742 participants at both the 1991 and the 2002 assessments and in the intervening years. RESULTS: Overall exposure to individual home outdoor PM10 declined over the 11-year follow-up period (median, -5.3 mug per cubic meter; interquartile range, -7.5 to -4.2). In mixed-model regression analyses, with adjustment for confounders, PM10 concentrations at baseline, and clustering within areas, there were significant negative associations between the decrease in PM10 and the rate of decline in FEV1 (P=0.045), FEV1 as a percentage of FVC (P=0.02), and FEF25-75 (P=0.001). The net effect of a decline of 10 microg of PM10 per cubic meter over an 11-year period was to reduce the annual rate of decline in FEV1 by 9% and of FEF25-75 by 16%. Cumulative exposure in the interval between the two examinations showed similar associations. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing exposure to airborne particulates appears to attenuate the decline in lung function related to exposure to PM10. The effects are greater in tests reflecting small-airway function.

Glutathione S-transferase genotypes modify lung function decline in the general population: SAPALDIA cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the environmental and genetic risk factors of accelerated lung function decline in the general population is a first step in a prevention strategy against the worldwide increasing respiratory pathology of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Deficiency in antioxidative and detoxifying Glutathione S-transferase (GST) gene has been associated with poorer lung function in children, smokers and patients with respiratory diseases. In the present study, we assessed whether low activity variants in GST genes are also associated with accelerated lung function decline in the general adult population. METHODS: We examined with multiple regression analysis the association of polymorphisms in GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTP1 genes with annual decline in FEV1, FVC, and FEF25-75 during 11 years of follow-up in 4686 subjects of the prospective SAPALDIA cohort representative of the Swiss general population. Effect modification by smoking, gender, bronchial hyperresponisveness and age was studied. RESULTS: The associations of GST genotypes with FEV1, FVC, and FEF25-75 were comparable in direction, but most consistent for FEV1. GSTT1 homozygous gene deletion alone or in combination with GSTM1 homozygous gene deletion was associated with excess decline in FEV1 in men, but not women, irrespective of smoking status. The additional mean annual decline in FEV1 in men with GSTT1 and concurrent GSTM1 gene deletion was -8.3 ml/yr (95% confidence interval: -12.6 to -3.9) relative to men without these gene deletions. The GSTT1 effect on the FEV1 decline comparable to the observed difference in FEV1 decline between never and persistent smoking men. Effect modification by gender was statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that genetic GSTT1 deficiency is a prevalent and strong determinant of accelerated lung function decline in the male general population.

Urban background particulate matter and allergic sensitization in adults of ECRHS II.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have shown weak or inconsistent associations between ambient air pollutants and allergic sensitization. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether regional urban air pollution may partly explain the large variation in the prevalence of allergic sensitization across cities of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II. METHODS: ECRHS is a cross-sectional survey initiated in 29 countries across Europe in the 1990s (ECRHS I) with a follow-up conducted 10 years later (ECRHS II). Subject characteristics were measured by questionnaires and blood tests conducted for the measurement of specific immunoglobulin E. Fine particle mass (PM(2.5), <2.5 microm) and sulphur on PM(2.5) were measured in 21 centres and annual averages of urban regional background air pollution were calculated. Results were scaled by an interquartile range increase in ambient PM(2.5) (6.03 microg/m(3)) and sulphur (1336 ng/m(3)). Generalized estimating equations were applied to compute population average effect estimates with adjustment for age, gender, smoking habit, education and number of siblings. RESULTS: A notable variation in pollution level and prevalence of allergic sensitization was observed. Moreover, exposure to urban regional background air pollution was not associated with allergic sensitization; adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence interval were 1.02 (0.95-1.09) for PM(2.5) and 1.08 (0.86-1.31) for sulphur. These statistically non-significant associations were sensitive to model specification. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that regional air pollution measured at fixed sites is not associated with allergic sensitization among adults in ECRHS II.

Respiratory effects of environmental tobacco exposure are enhanced by bronchial hyperreactivity.

RATIONALE: Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is associated with increased reports of respiratory symptoms and reduced lung function, but the long-term effects of ETS are unclear, notably in healthy individuals with bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR). OBJECTIVE: To assess the longitudinal effects of ETS exposure on the development of respiratory symptoms and spirometry in subjects with BHR. METHODS: The study population included 1,661 never-smokers from the SAPALDIA (Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults) cohort, assessed in 1991 (baseline) and 11 yr later, who were symptom-free at baseline. Incident reports of respiratory symptoms and results of spirometry were assessed at the follow-up survey. MAIN RESULTS: Exposure to ETS reported in the two surveys was strongly associated with the development of cough (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.7; p = 0.01). In subjects with BHR exposed to ETS at both surveys, a trend for strong associations were observed for wheeze, cough, dyspnea, and chronic bronchitis; however, the association reached statistical significance only for the symptom of dyspnea (p < 0.01). Lower FEV1/FVC (mean +/- SD, 72.9 +/- 7.7 vs. 76.8 +/- 6.1%; p < 0.01) and FEF(25-75) (forced expiratory flow, midexpiratory phase)/FVC (mean +/- SD, 56.1 +/- 22.5 vs. 68.1 +/- 21.6%; p < 0.01) were observed in subjects with BHR exposed to ETS compared with nonexposed subjects without BHR. Lower values were found in subjects continuing exposure by the follow-up survey. CONCLUSION: Exposure to ETS was strongly associated with the development of respiratory symptoms in previously asymptomatic subjects with BHR within 11 yr. Furthermore, subjects with underlying BHR had reduced lung function at follow-up, thus suggesting a higher risk for the development of chronic respiratory disease in this subset of the population.

Prevalence of renal impairment and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in a general population: results of the Swiss SAPALDIA study.

BACKGROUND: Impaired renal function is evolving as an independent marker of the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Little is known about the prevalence of impaired renal function and its relationship to cardiovascular risk factors in the Swiss general population. METHODS: SAPALDIA comprises a random sample of the Swiss population established in 1991, originally to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to air pollution. Participants were reassessed in 2002/3 and blood measurements were obtained (n = 6317). Renal function was estimated using the Cockcroft-Gault equation and the modified MDRD (four-component) equation incorporating age, race, gender and serum creatinine level. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence of impaired renal function [estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)] differed substantially between men and women, particularly at higher ages, and amounted to 13% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10-16%] and 36% (95% CI 32-40%) in men and women, respectively, of 65 years or older. Smoking, obesity, blood lipid levels, high systolic blood pressure and hyperuricaemia were all more common in men when compared with women. These cardiovascular risk factors were also associated independently with creatinine in both women and men. Women were less likely to receive cardiovascular drugs, in particular angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and beta-blockers, when compared with men of the same age. CONCLUSION: Moderate renal impairment seems to be prevalent in the general population, with an apparent excess in females which is not explained by conventional cardiovascular risk factors. The unexpected finding questions the validity of the prediction equations, in particular in females.

Follow-up of the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA 2) 1991-2003: methods and characterization of participants.

OBJECTIVES: The Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults (SAPALDIA) was designed to investigate the health effects from long-term exposure to air pollution. METHODS: The health assessment at recruitment (1991) and at the first reassessment (2001-3) consisted of an interview about respiratory health, occupational and other exposures, spirometry, a methacholine bronchial challenge test, end-expiratory carbon monoxide (CO) measurement and measurement for atopy. A bio bank for DNA and blood markers was established. Heart rate variability was measured using a 24-hour ECG (Holter) in a random sample of participants aged 50 years and older. Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and particulates in ambient air have been monitored in all study areas since 1991. Residential histories collected over the 11 year follow-up period coupled with GIS modelling will provide individual long-term air pollutant exposure estimates. RESULTS: Of 9651 participants examined in 1991, 8715 could be traced for the cohort study and 283 died. Basic information about health status was obtained for 8047 individuals (86% of alive persons), 6 528 individuals (70%) agreed to the health examination and 5 973 subjects (62%) completed the entire protocol. Non-participants in the reassessment were on average younger than participants and more likely to have been smokers and to have reported respiratory symptoms in the first assessment. Average weight had increased by 5.5 kg in 11 years and 28% of smokers in 1991 had quit by the time of the reassessment.

Accelerated decline in lung function in smoking women with airway obstruction: SAPALDIA 2 cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim was to determine if effects from smoking on lung function measured over 11 years differ between men and women. METHODS: In a prospective population based cohort study (Swiss Study on Air Pollution and Lung Diseases in Adults) current smokers in 1991 (18-60 yrs) were reassessed in 2002 (n = 1792). Multiple linear regression was used to estimate effects from pack-years of cigarettes smoked to 1991 and mean packs of cigarettes smoked per day between 1991 and 2002 on change in lung volume and flows over the 11 years. RESULTS: In both sexes, packs smoked between assessments were related to lung function decline but pack-years smoked before 1991 were not. Mean annual decline in FEV1 was -10.4 mL(95%CI -15.3, -5.5) per pack per day between assessments in men and -13.8 mL(95%CI-19.5,-8.1) in women. Decline per pack per day between 1991 and 2002 was lower in women who smoked in 1991 but quit before 2002 compared to persistent smokers (-6.4 vs -11.6 mL, p = 0.05) but this was not seen in men (-14.3 vs -8.8 mL p = 0.49). Smoking related decline was accelerated in men and women with airway obstruction, particularly in women where decline in FEV1 was three fold higher in participants with FEV1/FVC<0.70 compared to other women (-39.4 vs -12.2 mL/yr per pack per day, p < 0.002). CONCLUSION: There are differences in effects from smoking on lung function between men and women. Lung function recovers faster in women quitters than in men. Women current smokers with airway obstruction experience a greater smoking related decline in lung function than men.