10-Year Multimorbidity Trajectories in Older People Have Limited Benefit in Predicting Short-Term Health Outcomes in Comparison to Standard Multimorbidity Thresholds: A Population-Based Study.

Purpose: To identify multimorbidity trajectories among older adults and to compare their health outcome predictive performance with that of cross-sectional multimorbidity thresholds (eg, ≥2 chronic conditions (CCs)). Patients and Methods: We performed a population-based longitudinal study with a random sample of 99,411 individuals aged >65 years on April 1, 2019. Using health administrative data, we calculated for each individual the yearly CCs number from 2010 to 2019 and constructed the trajectories with latent class growth analysis. We used logistic regression to determine the increase in predictive capacity (c-statistic) of multimorbidity trajectories and traditional cross-sectional indicators (≥2, ≥3, or ≥4 CCs, assessed in April 2019) over that of a baseline model (including age, sex, and deprivation). We predicted 1-year mortality, hospitalization, polypharmacy, and frequent general practitioner, specialist, or emergency department visits. Results: We identified eight multimorbidity trajectories, each representing between 3% and 25% of the population. These trajectories exhibited trends of increasing, stable, or decreasing number of CCs. When predicting mortality, the 95% CI for the increase in the c-statistic for multimorbidity trajectories [0.032-0.044] overlapped with that of the ≥3 indicator [0.037-0.050]. Similar results were observed when predicting other health outcomes and with other cross-sectional indicators. Conclusion: Multimorbidity trajectories displayed comparable health outcome predictive capacity to those of traditional cross-sectional multimorbidity indicators. Given its ease of calculation, continued use of traditional multimorbidity thresholds remains relevant for population-based multimorbidity surveillance and clinical practice.

Multimorbidity prevalence and health outcome prediction: assessing the impact of lookback periods, disease count, and definition criteria in health administrative data at the population-based level.

BACKGROUND: Health administrative databases play a crucial role in population-level multimorbidity surveillance. Determining the appropriate retrospective or lookback period (LP) for observing prevalent and newly diagnosed diseases in administrative data presents challenge in estimating multimorbidity prevalence and predicting health outcome. The aim of this population-based study was to assess the impact of LP on multimorbidity prevalence and health outcomes prediction across three multimorbidity definitions, three lists of diseases used for multimorbidity assessment, and six health outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study including all individuals ages > 65 years on April 1st, 2019, in Québec, Canada. We considered three lists of diseases labeled according to the number of chronic conditions it considered: (1) L60 included 60 chronic conditions from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD); (2) L20 included a core of 20 chronic conditions; and (3) L31 included 31 chronic conditions from the Charlson and Elixhauser indices. For each list, we: (1) measured multimorbidity prevalence for three multimorbidity definitions (at least two [MM2+], three [MM3+] or four (MM4+) chronic conditions); and (2) evaluated capacity (c-statistic) to predict 1-year outcomes (mortality, hospitalisation, polypharmacy, and general practitioner, specialist, or emergency department visits) using LPs ranging from 1 to 20 years. RESULTS: Increase in multimorbidity prevalence decelerated after 5-10 years (e.g., MM2+, L31: LP = 1y: 14%, LP = 10y: 58%, LP = 20y: 69%). Within the 5-10 years LP range, predictive performance was better for L20 than L60 (e.g., LP = 7y, mortality, MM3+: L20 [0.798;95%CI:0.797-0.800] vs. L60 [0.779; 95%CI:0.777-0.781]) and typically better for MM3 + and MM4 + definitions (e.g., LP = 7y, mortality, L60: MM4+ [0.788;95%CI:0.786-0.790] vs. MM2+ [0.768;95%CI:0.766-0.770]). CONCLUSIONS: In our databases, ten years of data was required for stable estimation of multimorbidity prevalence. Within that range, the L20 and multimorbidity definitions MM3 + or MM4 + reached maximal predictive performance.

Comparison of Socioeconomic Disparities in Pump Uptake Among Children With Type 1 Diabetes in 2 Canadian Provinces With Different Payment Models.

Importance: Insulin pumps improve glycemic control and quality of life in children with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Canada's provinces have implemented universal pediatric programs to improve access. However, these programs provide differing financial coverage, allowing for unique cross-jurisdictional comparisons. Objective: To evaluate possible socioeconomic status (SES) disparities in pump uptake in Québec, where pumps are fully funded, with those in Manitoba, where pumps are partially funded. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using health administrative databases and a clinical registry, parallel, population-based cohort studies of children with diabetes were conducted from April 1, 2011, in Québec, and April 1, 2012, in Manitoba, until March 31, 2017. In analysis conducted from July 1, 2019, to November 30, 2021, multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to study the association between pump uptake and SES, defined using validated area-based material and social deprivation indices. Children aged 1 to 17 years with T1D were identified using a validated definition in administrative data (Québec) and a clinical registry (Manitoba). Those using pumps before the initiation of provincial programs were excluded. Exposures: Socioeconomic status. Main Outcomes and Measures: Insulin pump uptake. Results: A total of 2919 children with T1D were identified in Québec: 1550 male (53.1%), mean (SD) age at diagnosis, 8.3 (4.4) years, and 1067 (36.6%) were using a pump. In Manitoba, 636 children were identified: 364 male (57.2%), mean (SD) age at diagnosis, 8.8 (4.4) years, and 106 (16.7%) were using a pump. In Québec, the mean age at diagnosis of T1D was lower in children using the pump compared with those not using a pump (7.6 [4.1] vs 8.7 [4.5] years); sex distribution was similar (562 [52.7%] vs 988 [53.3%] male). No differences in mean (SD) age at diagnosis (8.8 [4.4] vs 8.8 [4.3] years) or sex (57 [53.8%] vs 307 [57.9%] male) were noted in both groups in Manitoba. Increasing material deprivation was associated with decreased pump uptake in both Québec (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93) and Manitoba (aHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.82). Inclusion of ethnic concentration did not change this association. Socioeconomic disparities in pump uptake were greater in Manitoba than Québec (P = .006 by t test; Cochran Q, 8.15; P = .004; I2 = 87.7%; 95% CI, 52.5%-96.8%). Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that the program of full coverage for pumps available in Québec partially mitigates observed SES disparities in uptake and may be a model to improve access for all children with T1D.

Impact of improved indoor air quality in Nunavik homes on children's respiratory health.

Between 2007 and 2012, hospitalization rate related to respiratory system diseases in children ≤1-year-old was near 7 times higher in Nunavik compared with the whole province of Quebec. To assess the impact of poor indoor air quality (IAQ) in residential environments on children's respiratory health, the Nunavik's intervention study investigated the impact of the optimization of ventilation systems on the incidence rates of respiratory infections in children in Nunavik. Children under 10 years were recruited and categorized according to the type of ventilation system in their home: energy recovery ventilator (ERV), heat recovery ventilator (HRV), no HRV or ERV, and control groups. Children's' medical records were analyzed over a period of 50 weeks pre- and post-intervention. Clinical diagnoses were classified into 4 categories: upper respiratory infections, lower respiratory infections, otitis media, and asthma. A decrease in respiratory infections episodes was observed in all groups following intervention with the highest impact observed for HRV systems (-53.0%). Decreases in the ERV group were not significant (-21,7%) possibly due to the presence of some volatile organic compound (such as propylene glycol) and inerrant experimental bias. Nevertheless, no significant association was found between health episodes incidence and household's behaviors or IAQ.

Increasing Incidence of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Among Canadian Children.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus is one of the most common pediatric chronic illnesses. Although a rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes (T1D) has frequently been documented, an almost 400-fold variation in incidence has been seen worldwide. We aimed to describe the trends in incidence of diabetes (type 1, type 2, all types) among children and adolescents living in the Greater Montréal area of Québec, Canada. METHODS: Using health administrative data (Québec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System) and medical records from the 3 major pediatric diabetes centres in the Greater Montréal area, we conducted serial cross-sectional studies of children aged 1 to 15 years during the period from 2002 to 2010. We conducted a trend analysis of diabetes incidence over time using multivariate Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We identified 696 new cases of diabetes between 2002 and 2010. The age-standardized incidence of diabetes (all types) increased from 16.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.4 to 21.2) to 27.8 (95% CI, 22.5 to 34.0) per 100,000, with annual incidence increasing, on average, by 5.2% per year (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 1.052; 95% CI, 1.022 to 1.083). This was driven predominantly by the T1D annual increase of 5.4% (aRR, 1.054; 95% CI, 1.023 to 1.086). A low number of incident cases of type 2 diabetes limited trend analysis in this group. There were no significant interactions between year and sex or age. CONCLUSIONS: The annual incidence of T1D is increasing in Québec children and does not vary by sex or age. Further research into etiologic factors is indicated.

Excess Mortality in Istanbul during Extreme Heat Waves between 2013 and 2017.

Heat waves are one of the most common direct impacts of anthropogenic climate change and excess mortality their most apparent impact. While Turkey has experienced an increase in heat wave episodes between 1971 and 2016, no epidemiological studies have examined their potential impacts on public health so far. In this study excess mortality in Istanbul attributable to extreme heat wave episodes between 2013 and 2017 is presented. Total excess deaths were calculated using mortality rates across different categories, including age, sex, and cause of death. The analysis shows that three extreme heat waves in the summer months of 2015, 2016, and 2017, which covered 14 days in total, significantly increased the mortality rate and caused 419 excess deaths in 23 days of exposure. As climate simulations show that Turkey is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Europe region to the increased intensity of heat waves until the end of the 21st century, further studies about increased mortality and morbidity risks due to heat waves in Istanbul and other cities, as well as intervention studies, are necessary.

Identifying pediatric diabetes cases from health administrative data: a population-based validation study in Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Type 1 diabetes is one of the most common chronic diseases in childhood with a worldwide incidence that is increasing by 3-5% per year. The incidence of type 2 diabetes, traditionally viewed as an adult disease, is increasing at alarming rates in children, paralleling the rise in childhood obesity. As the rates of diabetes increase in children, accurate population-based assessment of disease burden is important for those implementing strategies for health services delivery. Health administrative data are a powerful tool that can be used to track disease burden, health services use, and health outcomes. Case validation is essential in ensuring accurate disease identification using administrative databases. AIM: The aim of our study was to define and validate a pediatric diabetes case ascertainment algorithm (including any form of childhood-onset diabetes) using health administrative data. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a two-stage method using linked health administrative data and data extracted from charts. In stage 1, we linked chart data from a large urban region to health administrative data and compared the diagnostic accuracy of various algorithms. We selected those that performed the best to be validated in stage 2. In stage 2, the most accurate algorithms were validated with chart data within two other geographic areas in the province of Quebec. RESULTS: Accurate identification of diabetes in children (ages ≤15 years) required four physician claims or one hospitalization (with International Classification of Disease codes within 1 year (sensitivity 91.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 89.2-92.9]; positive predictive value [PPV] 93.5%, 95% CI 91.7-95.0) or using only four physician claims in 2 years (sensitivity 90.4%, 95% CI 88.3-92.2; PPV 93.2%, 95% CI 91.7-95.0). Separating the physician claims by 30 days increased the PPV of all algorithms tested. CONCLUSION: Patients with child-onset diabetes can be accurately identified within health administrative databases providing a valid source of information for health care resource planning and evaluation.

WITHDRAWN: Corrigendum to "Biomarkers of cadmium, lead and mercury exposure in relation with early biomarkers of renal dysfunction and diabetes: Results from a pilot study among aging Canadian" [Toxicol. Lett. 312 (2019) 148-156].

The Publisher regrets that this article is an accidental duplication of an article that has already been published, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.toxlet.2019.05.020. The duplicate article has therefore been withdrawn. The full Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal can be found at https://www.elsevier.com/about/our-business/policies/article-withdrawal.

Biomarkers of cadmium, lead and mercury exposure in relation with early biomarkers of renal dysfunction and diabetes: Results from a pilot study among aging Canadians.

Cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg) are known nephrotoxicants that have been associated with the risk of developing type-2 diabetes (T2D). The aim of this pilot study was to explore relations between biomarkers of Cd, Pb and Hg exposure, early urinary biomarkers of renal dysfunction (kidney-injured molecule-1 (KIM-1), N-acetylglucosaminidase and retinol-binding protein (RBP)) and plasma biomarkers deemed predictive of the risk of developing T2D (adiponectin, leptin, branched-chain and aromatic amino acids), among 70 participants (age range: (46-87 yrs)) from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) with normal glycemic control (glycated haemoglobin ≤ 6.5%) in all but four of them. Significant (p < 0.05) Spearman correlation coefficients were obtained between: plasma adiponectin and RBP (r = 0.42), urinary Cd (r = 0.32), blood Cd (r = 0.36); KIM-1 and CdU (r = 0.33) as well as HgU (r = 0.37); RBP and isoleucine (r = -0.28), leucine (r = -0.33), tyrosine (r = -0.3) and valine (r = -0.44); CdU and isoleucine and valine (r = -0.27 for both). Multiple linear regression analyses showed that some T2D-related biomarkers are confounders of associations between RBP and Hg or Cd biomarkers. Path analyses support a mediating effect of adiponectin on the relation between urinary Cd and RBP. Concluding, this pilot study originally investigated a comprehensive set of biomarkers on complex interactions between toxic metal exposure, renal function and T2D in a group of aging Canadians. Its findings warrant further investigation of longitudinal data in a greater number of participants.

Indoor swimming pool environments and self-reported irritative and respiratory symptoms among lifeguards.

A web survey was conducted among 870 lifeguards (current and former) to assess the relationship between exposure to indoor swimming pool environments and respiratory health. Associations between respiratory symptoms and asthma with varying lengths of occupational exposure were assessed by multiple logistic regression. Lifeguards exposed more than 500 hours in the previous 12 months experienced more cough (adjustedOR = 2.54, IC95 % = 1.51-4.25), throat (aOR = 2.47, IC95 % = 1.44-4.24) and eye irritation (aOR = 4.34, IC95 % = 2.52-7.50) during this period than non-exposed lifeguards. Upper and lower respiratory symptoms while on duty were related to duration of lifetime exposure (> 500 days vs. ≤ 50 days: Upper aOR = 5.84, IC95 % = 3.60-9.50; Lower aOR = 2.53, IC95 % = 1.58-4.06). Physician-diagnosed asthma was high among lifeguards (23 %). Highly exposed asthmatic lifeguards (> 500 hours) over the previous 12 months had a significantly higher risk (aOR = 3.74, IC95 % = 1.39-10.02) of suffering from asthma attack(s) than non-exposed asthmatic subjects. Exposure to indoor swimming pool environments is related to respiratory symptoms among lifeguards.

Lead exposure through consumption of big game meat in Quebec, Canada: risk assessment and perception.

Game meat from animals killed by lead ammunition may expose consumers to lead. We assessed the risk related to lead intake from meat consumption of white-tailed deer and moose killed by lead ammunition and documented the perception of hunters and butchers regarding this potential contamination. Information on cervid meat consumption and risk perception were collected using a mailed self-administrated questionnaire which was addressed to a random sample of Quebec hunters. In parallel, 72 samples of white-tailed deer (n = 35) and moose (n = 37) meats were collected from voluntary hunters and analysed for lead content using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. A risk assessment for people consuming lead shot game meat was performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Mean lead levels in white-tailed deer and moose killed by lead ammunition were 0.28 and 0.17 mg kg(-1) respectively. Risk assessment based on declared cervid meat consumption revealed that 1.7% of the surveyed hunters would exceed the dose associated with a 1 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure (SBP). For consumers of moose meat once, twice or three times a week, simulations predicted that 0.5%, 0.9% and 1.5% of adults would be exposed to a dose associated with a 1 mmHg increase in SBP, whereas 0.9%, 1.9% and 3.3% of children would be exposed to a dose associated with 1 point intelligence quotient (IQ) decrease, respectively. For consumers of deer meat once, twice or three times a week, the proportions were 1.6%, 2.9% and 4% for adults and 2.9%, 5.8% and 7.7% for children, respectively. The consumption of meat from cervids killed with lead ammunition may increase lead exposure and its associated health risks. It would be important to inform the population, particularly hunters, about this potential risk and promote the use of lead-free ammunition.