Trade-off between tree planting and wetland conservation in China.

Trade-offs between tree planting programs and wetland conservation are unclear. Here, we employ satellite-derived inundation data and a process-based land surface model (ORCHIDEE-Hillslope) to investigate the impacts of tree planting on wetland dynamics in China for 2000-2016 and the potential impacts of near-term tree planting activities for 2017-2035. We find that 160,000-190,000 km2 (25.3-25.6%) of historical tree planting over wetland grid cells has resulted in 1,300-1,500 km2 (0.3-0.4%) net wetland loss. Compared to moist southern regions, the dry northern and western regions show a much higher sensitivity of wetland reduction to tree planting. With most protected wetlands in China located in the drier northern and western basins, continuing tree planting scenarios are projected to lead to a > 10% wetland loss relative to 2000 across 4-8 out of 38 national wetland nature reserves. Our work shows how spatial optimization can help the balance of tree planting and wetland conservation targets.

Asymmetric responses of ecosystem productivity to rainfall anomalies vary inversely with mean annual rainfall over the conterminous United States.

The CONterminous United States (CONUS) presents a large range of climate conditions and biomes where terrestrial primary productivity and its inter-annual variability are controlled regionally by rainfall and/or temperature. Here, the response of ecosystem productivity to those climate variables was investigated across different biomes from 2010 to 2018 using three climate datasets of precipitation, air temperature or drought severity, combined with several proxies of ecosystem productivity: a remote sensing product of aboveground biomass, an net primary productivity (NPP) remote sensing product, an NPP model-based product and four gross primary productivity products. We used an asymmetry index (AI) where positive AI indicates a greater increase of ecosystem productivity in wet years compared to the decline in dry years, and negative AI indicates a greater decline of ecosystem productivity in dry years compared to the increase in wet years. We found consistent spatial patterns of AI across the CONUS for the different products, with negative asymmetries over the Great Plains and positive asymmetries over the southwestern CONUS. Shrubs and, to a lesser extent, evergreen forests show a persistent positive asymmetry, whilst (natural) grasslands appear to have transitioned from positive to negative anomalies during the last decade. The general tendency of dominant negative asymmetry response for ecosystem productivity across the CONUS appears to be influenced by the negative asymmetry of precipitation anomalies. AI was found to be a function of mean rainfall: more positive AIs were found in dry areas where plants are adapted to drought and take advantage of rainfall pulses, and more negative AIs were found in wet areas, with a threshold delineating the two regimes corresponding to a mean annual rainfall of 200-400 mm/year.

Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers.

Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater storage) could affect the sustainability of freshwater resources. Here, we used a fully-coupled climate model to investigate GWS changes over seven critical aquifers identified as significantly distressed by satellite observations. We assessed the potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that the climate-driven impacts on GWS changes do not necessarily reflect the long-term trend in precipitation; instead, the trend may result from enhancement of evapotranspiration, and reduction in snowmelt, which collectively lead to divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers. Finally, we compare the climate-driven and anthropogenic pumping impacts. The reduction in GWS is mainly due to the combined impacts of over-pumping and climate effects; however, the contribution of pumping could easily far exceed the natural replenishment.

Potential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in China.

Global climate change will increase the frequency of hot temperatures, impairing health and productivity for millions of working people and raising labor costs. In mainland China, high-temperature subsidies (HTSs) are allocated to employees for each working day in extremely hot environments, but the potential heat-related increase in labor cost has not been evaluated so far. Here, we estimate the potential HTS cost in current and future climates under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and radiative forcing (Representative Concentration Pathway), taking uncertainties from the climate model structure and bias correction into account. On average, the total HTS in China is estimated at 38.6 billion yuan/y (US $6.22 billion/y) over the 1979-2005 period, which is equivalent to 0.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Assuming that the HTS standards (per employee per hot day) remain unchanged throughout the 21st century, the total HTS may reach 250 billion yuan/y in the 2030s and 1,000 billion yuan/y in 2100. We further show that, without specific adaptation, the increased HTS cost is mainly determined by population growth until the 2030s and climate change after the mid-21st century because of increasingly frequent hot weather. Accounting for the likely possibility that HTS standards follow the wages, the share of GDP devoted to HTS could become as high as 3% at the end of 21st century.