Association of Intima-Media Thickness Measured at the Common Carotid Artery With Incident Carotid Plaque: Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of 20 Prospective Studies.

Background The association between common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) and incident carotid plaque has not been characterized fully. We therefore aimed to precisely quantify the relationship between CCA-IMT and carotid plaque development. Methods and Results We undertook an individual participant data meta-analysis of 20 prospective studies from the Proof-ATHERO (Prospective Studies of Atherosclerosis) consortium that recorded baseline CCA-IMT and incident carotid plaque involving 21 494 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease and without preexisting carotid plaque at baseline. Mean baseline age was 56 years (SD, 9 years), 55% were women, and mean baseline CCA-IMT was 0.71 mm (SD, 0.17 mm). Over a median follow-up of 5.9 years (5th-95th percentile, 1.9-19.0 years), 8278 individuals developed first-ever carotid plaque. We combined study-specific odds ratios (ORs) for incident carotid plaque using random-effects meta-analysis. Baseline CCA-IMT was approximately log-linearly associated with the odds of developing carotid plaque. The age-, sex-, and trial arm-adjusted OR for carotid plaque per SD higher baseline CCA-IMT was 1.40 (95% CI, 1.31-1.50; I2=63.9%). The corresponding OR that was further adjusted for ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.24-1.45; I2=59.4%; 14 studies; 16 297 participants; 6381 incident plaques). We observed no significant effect modification across clinically relevant subgroups. Sensitivity analysis restricted to studies defining plaque as focal thickening yielded a comparable OR (1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]; I2=57.1%; 14 studies; 17 352 participants; 6991 incident plaques). Conclusions Our large-scale individual participant data meta-analysis demonstrated that CCA-IMT is associated with the long-term risk of developing first-ever carotid plaque, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Health disturbances and exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from mobile-phone base stations in French urban areas.

The effects of radiofrequency exposure on the health of people living near mobile-phone base stations (MPBSs) have been the subject of several studies since the mid-2000s, with contradictory results. We aimed to investigate the association between measured exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) from MPBSs and the presence of self-reported non-specific and insomnia-like symptoms. A cross-sectional survey conducted between 2015 and 2017 in five large cities in France involved 354 people living in buildings located at a distance of 250 m or less from an MPBS and in the main transmit beam of the antennas. Information on environmental concerns, anxiety, and non-specific and insomnia-like symptoms was collected with a questionnaire administrated by telephone. A complete broadband field-meter measurement [100 kHz - 6 GHz] was then made at five points of each dwelling, followed by a spectral analysis at the point of highest exposure, detailing the contribution of each service, including MPBS. The median exposure from MPBS was 0.27 V/m (0.44 V/m for global field), ranging from 0.03 V/m to 3.58 V/m, MPBSs being the main source of exposure for 64% of the dwellings. In this study population, the measured exposure from MPBSs was not associated with self-reported non-specific or insomnia-like symptoms. However, for insomnia-like symptoms, a significant interaction was found between RF-EMF exposure from MPBSs and environmental concerns. These findings do not support the hypothesis of an effect of RF-EMF from MPBSs on non-specific or insomnia-like symptoms in the overall population. Studies are needed to further investigate the positive association observed between exposure from MPBSs and insomnia-like symptoms among people reporting environmental concerns.

Radiofrequency exposure of people living near mobile-phone base stations in France.

In response to the demand from a growing number of people concerned about the possible impact of RF-EMF on health, the French National Frequency Agency (ANFR) has published a standardized protocol for in-situ measurements of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF). This protocol was based on the search for the point of highest field strength and the use of spot measurement. In the framework of an epidemiological study, such spot measurements were implemented in the homes of 354 participants located in urban areas within 250 m of a mobile-phone base station (MPBS) and in the main beam direction of the antenna. Among the participants, more than half accepted to be enrolled in a longer-term study, among whom 152 were equipped with a personal exposure meter (PEM) for 48 h and 40 for seven continuous days. Both spot and PEM measurements quantified downlink field strengths, i.e. FM, TV3-4-5, TETRA I-II-III, 2 GHz-5GHz Wi-Fi, WiMax, GSM900, GSM1800, UMTS900, UMTS 2100, LTE800, LTE1800, and LTE2600. Spot measurements showed a mean/median field strength of 0.58/0.44 V/m for total RF-EMF and 0.43/0.27 V/m from the MPBS. RF-EMF from the MPBS was the dominant source of exposure in 64% of households. Exposure to RF-EMF was influenced by the position of the windows with respect to the MPBS, in particular line-of-site visibility, the distance of the antenna and the floor of the apartment. The PEM surveys showed the measured exposure to be higher during outings than at home and during the day than at night, but there was no difference between the weekends and working days. There was a strong correlation between exposure quantified by both spot and PEM measurements, although spot measures were approximately three times higher than those by PEMs. This study is the first to assess exposure to RF-EMF of people living near a MPBS in urban areas in France. These preliminary results suggest the value of using spot measurements to estimate the impact of the evolution of the mobile-phone network and technology on the exposure of populations to RF-EMF. The low levels of RF-RMF expressed as mean values do not necessarily rule out possible health effects of this exposure.

Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium.

AIMS: Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events. CONCLUSION: Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

Major ischaemic and bleeding risks following current drug-eluting stent implantation: Are there differences across current drug-eluting stent types in real life?

BACKGROUND: Current drug-eluting stents (c-DESs) reduce the occurrence of ischaemic events, but expose recipients to stent thrombosis and bleeding secondary to preventive antiplatelet therapy. To date, comparative data on the relative effectiveness and safety of the various c-DESs in real life are limited. AIM: To compare ischaemic and bleeding risks across the major c-DESs used in France. METHODS: French national health insurance reimbursement and hospitalization databases were used. Patients implanted with a c-DES in 2014 were followed for 1 year. The risks of ischaemic events (revascularization, myocardial infarction and/or stroke), major bleeding events and death were compared across six c-DESs (XIENCE®, PROMUS®, RESOLUTE®, BIOMATRIX®, NOBORI® and ORSIRO®), using multilevel Cox models adjusted for baseline individual and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 52,891 subjects were included: 34.4% with XIENCE®; 27.6% with PROMUS®; 24.0% with RESOLUTE®; 8.0% with BIOMATRIX®; 5.0% with NOBORI®; and 1.0% with ORSIRO®. Among them, 9378 had at least one event (ischaemic, 6064; major bleeding, 1968; death, 2411), resulting in an overall incidence rate of 19 per 100 person-years. In the multivariable analysis, the risk of ischaemic events, major bleeding events or death did not differ between the c-DESs overall (adjusted hazard ratios between 0.85 [95% confidence interval 0.68-1.07] and 1.04 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.10] compared with XIENCE® used as the reference) and when each outcome was considered separately. CONCLUSIONS: In real life, major ischaemic and bleeding risks do not differ across the various c-DESs over the first year following implantation. Future studies are needed to assess comparative c-DES effectiveness and safety longer term.

When Blue-Collars Feel Blue: Depression and Low Occupational Grade as Synergistic Predictors of Incident Cardiac Events in Middle-Aged Working Individuals.

BACKGROUND: The association of psychological variables with cardiovascular health might depend on socioeconomic status. We examined the moderating effect of occupational grade on the association between depression and incident cardiac events among middle-aged workers from the GAZEL cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 10 541 participants (7855 men, mean age: 47.8±3.5 years) free of cardiovascular diseases completed the Center of Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale in 1993. Age, sex, and occupational grade (low, medium, and high) were obtained from company records. Classical cardiovascular risk factors were self-reported. All participants were followed-up for medically certified cardiac events from January 1994 to December 2014. Associations between baseline variables and incident cardiac events were estimated with hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals computed in Cox regressions. After a median follow-up of 21 years, 592 (5.6%) participants had a cardiac event. There was a significant interaction between depression and occupational grade in both age- and sex-adjusted (P=0.008) and multiadjusted (P=0.009) models. This interaction was mainly explained by an association between depression and incident cardiac events that prevailed among participants of low occupational grade (3.71 versus 1.96 events per 1000 person-years among those depressed versus nondepressed, multiadjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals], 1.99 [1.12-3.48]). CONCLUSIONS: From a research perspective, these results may account for previous conflicting results and constitute an impetus for reanalyzing previous data sets, taking into account the moderating role of socioeconomic status. From a clinical perspective, they urge clinicians and policy makers to consider depressive symptoms and low socioeconomic status as synergistic cardiovascular risk factors.

Short-Term Risk of Bleeding During Heparin Bridging at Initiation of Vitamin K Antagonist Therapy in More Than 90 000 Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Managed in Outpatient Care.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have recently examined the risks of bleeding and of ischemic stroke and systemic embolism associated with perioperative heparin bridging anticoagulation in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. However, few studies have investigated bridging risks during vitamin K antagonist initiation in outpatient settings. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on individuals starting oral anticoagulation between January 2010 and November 2014 for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation managed in outpatient care and identified from French healthcare insurance. Bleeding and ischemic stroke and systemic embolism events were identified from the hospitalization database. Adjusted hazard ratios with 95% CI were estimated using Cox models during the first and 2 following months of anticoagulation. Of 90 826 individuals, 30% had bridging therapy. A total of 318 (0.35%) cases of bleeding and 151 (0.17%) ischemic stroke and systemic embolism cases were identified during the first month of follow-up and 231 (0.31%) and 122 (0.16%) during the 2 following months, respectively. At 1 month of follow-up, the incidence of bleeding was higher in the bridged group compared with the nonbridged group (0.47% versus 0.30%; P<0.001), and this increased risk persisted after adjustment for covariates (hazard ratio=1.60; 95% CI, 1.28-2.01). This difference disappeared after the first month of treatment (0.93; 0.70-1.23). No significant difference in the occurrence of ischemic stroke and systemic embolism was observed either at 1 month of follow-up or later. CONCLUSIONS: At vitamin K antagonist initiation for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation managed in ambulatory settings, bridging therapy is associated with a higher risk of bleeding and a similar risk of arterial thromboembolism compared with no bridging therapy.

Genome-Wide Association Study for Incident Myocardial Infarction and Coronary Heart Disease in Prospective Cohort Studies: The CHARGE Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Data are limited on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Moreover, it is not known whether genetic variants identified to date also associate with risk of CHD in a prospective setting. METHODS: We performed a two-stage GWAS analysis of incident myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD in a total of 64,297 individuals (including 3898 MI cases, 5465 CHD cases). SNPs that passed an arbitrary threshold of 5×10-6 in Stage I were taken to Stage II for further discovery. Furthermore, in an analysis of prognosis, we studied whether known SNPs from former GWAS were associated with total mortality in individuals who experienced MI during follow-up. RESULTS: In Stage I 15 loci passed the threshold of 5×10-6; 8 loci for MI and 8 loci for CHD, for which one locus overlapped and none were reported in previous GWAS meta-analyses. We took 60 SNPs representing these 15 loci to Stage II of discovery. Four SNPs near QKI showed nominally significant association with MI (p-value<8.8×10-3) and three exceeded the genome-wide significance threshold when Stage I and Stage II results were combined (top SNP rs6941513: p = 6.2×10-9). Despite excellent power, the 9p21 locus SNP (rs1333049) was only modestly associated with MI (HR = 1.09, p-value = 0.02) and marginally with CHD (HR = 1.06, p-value = 0.08). Among an inception cohort of those who experienced MI during follow-up, the risk allele of rs1333049 was associated with a decreased risk of subsequent mortality (HR = 0.90, p-value = 3.2×10-3). CONCLUSIONS: QKI represents a novel locus that may serve as a predictor of incident CHD in prospective studies. The association of the 9p21 locus both with increased risk of first myocardial infarction and longer survival after MI highlights the importance of study design in investigating genetic determinants of complex disorders.

Normative values for carotid intima media thickness and its progression: Are they transferrable outside of their cohort of origin?

BACKGROUND: The clinical use of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) requires normal values, which may be subject to variation of geographical factors, ethnicity or measurement details. The influence of these factors has rarely been studied. The aim of this study was to determine whether normative cIMT values and their association with event risk are generalizable across populations. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of individual participant data. METHOD: From 22 general population cohorts from Europe, North America and Asia we selected subjects free of cardiovascular disease. Percentiles of cIMT and cIMT progression were assessed separately for every cohort. Cox proportional hazards models for vascular events were used to estimate hazard ratios for cIMT in each cohort. The estimates were pooled across Europe, North America and Asia, with random effects meta-analysis. The influence of geography, ethnicity and ultrasound protocols on cIMT values and on the hazard ratios was examined by meta-regression. RESULTS: Geographical factors, ethnicity and the ultrasound protocol had influence neither on the percentiles of cIMT and its progression, nor on the hazard ratios of cIMT for vascular events. Heterogeneity for percentiles of cIMT and cIMT progression was too large to create meaningful normative values. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of cIMT values is too heterogeneous to define universal or regional population reference values. CIMT values vary widely between different studies regardless of ethnicity, geographic location and ultrasound protocol. Prediction of vascular events with cIMT values was more consistent across all cohorts, ethnicities and regions.

Inflammatory markers and extent and progression of early atherosclerosis: Meta-analysis of individual-participant-data from 20 prospective studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale epidemiological evidence on the role of inflammation in early atherosclerosis, assessed by carotid ultrasound, is lacking. We aimed to quantify cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of inflammatory markers with common-carotid-artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) in the general population. METHODS: Information on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, leucocyte count and CCA-IMT was available in 20 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration involving 49,097 participants free of pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Estimates of associations were calculated within each study and then combined using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Mean baseline CCA-IMT amounted to 0.74 mm (SD = 0.18) and mean CCA-IMT progression over a mean of 3.9 years to 0.011 mm/year (SD = 0.039). Cross-sectional analyses showed positive linear associations between inflammatory markers and baseline CCA-IMT. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, mean differences in baseline CCA-IMT per one-SD higher inflammatory marker were: 0.0082 mm for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (p < 0.001); 0.0072 mm for fibrinogen (p < 0.001); and 0.0025 mm for leucocyte count (p = 0.033). 'Inflammatory load', defined as the number of elevated inflammatory markers (i.e. in upper two quintiles), showed a positive linear association with baseline CCA-IMT (p < 0.001). Longitudinal associations of baseline inflammatory markers and changes therein with CCA-IMT progression were null or at most weak. Participants with the highest 'inflammatory load' had a greater CCA-IMT progression (p = 0.015). CONCLUSION: Inflammation was independently associated with CCA-IMT cross-sectionally. The lack of clear associations with CCA-IMT progression may be explained by imprecision in its assessment within a limited time period. Our findings for 'inflammatory load' suggest important combined effects of the three inflammatory markers on early atherosclerosis.

Isolated negative T waves in the general population is a powerful predicting factor of cardiac mortality and coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Isolated negative T waves (INTW) are considered a common and minor electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormality. However, few recent studies have associated the presence of INTW with an increased risk of all-causes and cardiovascular mortalities. The aim was to evaluate the predictive value of INTW for coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Between 1991 and 1994, 12-lead ECGs were recorded in a sample of 10,600 men (PRIME Study). Among them, 1284 (12.1%) were excluded because of major ECG abnormalities at entry according to Minnesota code, a history of CHD or likely ischemic chest pain on the Rose Questionnaire. INTW were found in 256 subjects (2.74%). The primary outcome was myocardial infarction and angina pectoris after a 10 year follow-up (9.6 ± 1.4). Secondary outcome was all causes of death. RESULTS: After multivariate adjustment, INTW < 1 mm in anterior or inferior leads was associated with a higher risk of angina pectoris [HR 3.04 95% CI (1.13-8.22) and HR 3.67 95% CI (1.35-9.96) respectively] and INTW ≥ 1 mm in lateral or anterior leads were associated with a higher incidence of myocardial infarction [HR 2.75, 95% CI (1.29-5.88) and HR 3.20 95% CI (1.68-6.09) respectively]. The association of INTW ≥ 1 mm in leads V1 to V5 with mortality remained highly significant [HR 3.17 95% CI (1.77-5.65)] after multivariate adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: In middle-age men, INTW is associated with a 2 to 3-fold higher risk of death, myocardial infarction and angina pectoris.

Carotid intima-media thickness progression and risk of vascular events in people with diabetes: results from the PROG-IMT collaboration.

OBJECTIVE: Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of subclinical organ damage and predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in the general population. It has also been associated with vascular risk in people with diabetes. However, the association of CIMT change in repeated examinations with subsequent CVD events is uncertain, and its use as a surrogate end point in clinical trials is controversial. We aimed at determining the relation of CIMT change to CVD events in people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a comprehensive meta-analysis of individual participant data, we collated data from 3,902 adults (age 33-92 years) with type 2 diabetes from 21 population-based cohorts. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) difference in mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) or in CCA-IMT progression, both calculated from two examinations on average 3.6 years apart, for each cohort, and combined the estimates with random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Average mean CCA-IMT ranged from 0.72 to 0.97 mm across cohorts in people with diabetes. The HR of CVD events was 1.22 (95% CI 1.12-1.33) per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT, after adjustment for age, sex, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Average mean CCA-IMT progression in people with diabetes ranged between -0.09 and 0.04 mm/year. The HR per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT progression was 0.99 (0.91-1.08). CONCLUSIONS: Despite reproducing the association between CIMT level and vascular risk in subjects with diabetes, we did not find an association between CIMT change and vascular risk. These results do not support the use of CIMT progression as a surrogate end point in clinical trials in people with diabetes.

All-Cause Mortality up to and After Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Events in European Middle-Aged Men: The PRIME Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The aim was to investigate prospectively the all-cause mortality risk up to and after coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events in European middle-aged men. METHODS: The study population comprised 10 424 men 50 to 59 years of age recruited between 1991 and 1994 in France (N=7855) and Northern Ireland (N=2747) within the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction. Incident CHD and stroke events and deaths from all causes were prospectively registered during the 10-year follow-up. In Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis, CHD and stroke events during follow-up were used as time-dependent covariates. RESULTS: A total of 769 CHD and 132 stroke events were adjudicated, and 569 deaths up to and 66 after CHD or stroke occurred during follow-up. After adjustment for study country and cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratios of all-cause mortality were 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.18-2.12) after CHD and 3.13 (95% confidence interval 1.98-4.92) after stroke. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support continuous efforts to promote both primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Hostility and the risk of peptic ulcer in the GAZEL cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence for an association between hostility and peptic ulcer mainly relies on cross-sectional studies. Prospective studies are rare and have not used a validated measure of hostility. This prospective study aimed to examine the association between hostility and peptic ulcer in the large-scale French GAZEL cohort. METHOD: In 1993, 14,674 participants completed the Buss and Durkee Hostility Inventory. Participants were annually followed-up from 1994 to 2011. Diagnosis of peptic ulcer was self-reported. The association between hostility scores and ulcer incidence was measured by hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals computed through Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 13,539 participants free of peptic ulcer history at baseline, 816 reported a peptic ulcer during a mean follow-up of 16.8 years. Adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking, occupational grade, and a proxy for nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug exposure, ulcer incidence was positively associated with total hostility (HR per SD: 1.23, confidence interval: 1.14-1.31), behavioral hostility (HR per SD: 1.13, confidence interval: 1.05-1.21), cognitive hostility (HR per SD: 1.26, confidence interval: 1.18-1.35), and irritability (HR per SD: 1.20, confidence interval: 1.12-1.29). The risk of peptic ulcer increased from the lowest to the highest quartile for all hostility measures (p for linear trend < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Hostility might be associated with an increased risk of peptic ulcer. Should these results be replicated, further studies would be needed to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Gender- and age-specific trends in coronary heart disease mortality in France from 2000 to 2007: results from the MONICA registers.

BACKGROUND: Several recent studies in the USA, the UK and Australia have raised concern about a possible plateau or even reverse trend in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in younger populations. We aimed to assess the recent gender- and age-specific trends in CHD mortality among inhabitants aged 35-74 years from the three geographical areas covered by the French MONICA population registers. METHODS: Registered events were fatal myocardial infarctions and coronary deaths selected after a thorough investigation by the physician who signed the death certificate, general practitioners and cardiologists, and by public and private hospitals for in-hospital deaths. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2007 age-standardized CHD mortality rates decreased significantly by 24% in men and 38% in women. In the age group 55-74, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in mortality was -5.2 (95% confidence interval: -6.6 to -3.7; p < 10(-4)) among men and -9.0 (-11.6 to -6.4; p < 10(-4)) among women. In the 35-54 age group, the EAPC in mortality was -4.1 (-7.2 to -1.1; p < 10(-2)) among men and -2.5 (-8.7 to 3.7; p = 0.43) among women. These trends remained similar when possible coronary deaths were also accounted for, except in young men where the decline was no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS: A clear decline in recent CHD mortality rates was observed among subjects above 54 years, but not among younger subjects, particularly in women. These results may be due to unfavourable trends in some risk factors in the latter age group and call for a strengthening of primary prevention.

External validation of the 2008 Framingham cardiovascular risk equation for CHD and stroke events in a European population of middle-aged men. The PRIME study.

OBJECTIVE: To test the applicability of the sex-specific 2008 Framingham general cardiovascular risk equation for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in European middle-aged men from Ireland and France. METHODS: In the PRIME study, 9638 healthy middle-aged men recruited in France and Ireland were surveyed for 10 years for the occurrence of first CHD and stroke events. The original Framingham equation, the partially calibrated Framingham equation (using the PRIME baseline survival at 10 years), and the completely calibrated Framingham equation (additionally using risk factor means calculated in PRIME) were assessed. Model fit (expected versus observed events) and discrimination ability were assessed using a modified Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square statistic and Harrell's c-index respectively. RESULTS: The original (uncalibrated) Framingham equation overestimated by 1.94-fold the risk of CHD and stroke combined in PRIME, and by 2.23 and 1.42-fold in PRIME-France and PRIME-Ireland respectively. Adequate fit was found after complete calibration. However, discrimination ability of the Framingham equation was poor as shown by Harrell's c-index lower than 0.70. CONCLUSION: The (completely) calibrated 2008 Framingham equation predicted accurate number of CHD and stroke events but discriminated poorly individuals at higher from those at lower event risk in a European population of middle-aged men.

Personality and the risk of cancer: a 16-year follow-up study of the GAZEL cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Large-scale prospective studies do not support an association between neuroticism and extroversion with cancer incidence. However, research on other personality constructs is inconclusive. This longitudinal study examined the associations between four personality measures, Type 1, "suppressed emotional expression"; Type 5, "rational/antiemotional"; hostility; and Type A with cancer incidence. METHODS: Personality measures were available for 13,768 members in the GAZEL cohort study (baseline assessment in 1993). Follow-up for diagnoses of primary cancers was obtained from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2009. Associations between personality and cancer incidence were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards analyses and adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 16.0 years (range, 9 days-16 years), 1139 participants were diagnosed as having a primary cancer. The mean duration between baseline and cancer diagnosis was 9.3 years. Type 1 personality was associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer (hazard ratio per standard deviation = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.68-0.97, p = .02). Type 5 personality was not associated with prostate, breast, colorectal, or smoking-related cancers, but was associated with other cancers (hazard ratio per standard deviation = 1.17, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.31, p = .01). Hostility was associated with an increased risk of smoking-related cancers, which was explained by smoking habits, and Type A was not associated with any of the cancer endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: Several personality measures were prospectively associated with the incidence of selected cancers. These links may warrant further epidemiological studies and investigations about potential biobehavioral mechanisms.

Influence of calendar period on the association between BMI and coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis of 31 cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: The association between obesity and coronary heart disease (CHD) may have changed over time, for example due to improved pharmacological treatment of CHD risk factors. This meta-analysis of 31 prospective cohort studies explores the influence of calendar period on CHD risk associated with body mass index (BMI). DESIGN AND METHODS: The relative risks (RRs) of CHD for a five-BMI-unit increment and BMI categories were pooled by means of random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was used to examine the influence of calendar period (>1985 v ≤1985) in univariate and multivariate analyses (including mean population age as a covariate). RESULTS: The age, sex, and smoking adjusted RR (95% confidence intervals) of CHD for a five-BMI-unit increment was 1.28(1.22:1.34). For underweight, overweight and obesity, the RRs (compared to normal weight) were 1.11(0.91:1.36), 1.31(1.22:1.41), and 1.78(1.55:2.04), respectively. The univariate analysis indicated 31% (95%CI: -56:0) lower RR of CHD associated with a five-BMI-unit increment and a 51% (95%CI: -78: -14)) lower RR associated with obesity in studies starting after 1985 (n = 15 and 10, respectively) compared to studies starting in or before 1985 (n = 16 and 10). However, in the multivariate analysis, only mean population age was independently associated with the RRs for a five-BMI-unit increment and obesity (-29(95%CI: -55: -5)) and -31(95%CI: -66:3), respectively) per 10-year increment in mean age). CONCLUSION: This study provides no consistent evidence for a difference in the association between BMI and CHD by calendar period. The mean population age seems to be the most important factor that modifies the association between the risk of CHD and BMI, in which the RR decreases with increasing age.

Depressive symptoms, antidepressants and disability and future coronary heart disease and stroke events in older adults: the Three City Study.

To investigate the association between baseline depressive symptoms and first fatal and non fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in older adults, taking antidepressants and disability into account. In the Three City Study, a community-based prospective multicentric observational study cohort, 7,308 non-institutionalized men and women aged ≥65 years with no reported history of CHD, stroke or dementia, completed the 20-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies depression scale (CESD) questionnaire. First CHD and stroke events during follow-up were adjudicated by an independent expert committee. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazard model. After a median follow-up of 5.3 years, 338 subjects had suffered a first non-fatal CHD or stroke event, and 82 had died from a CHD or stroke. After adjustment for study center, baseline socio-demographic characteristics, and conventional risk factors, depressive symptoms (CESD ≥ 16) were associated with fatal events only: fatal CHD plus stroke (HR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.57-3.97), fatal CHD alone (n = 57; HR = 2.21 ; 95%CI 1.27-3.87), and fatal stroke alone (n = 25; HR = 3.27; 95% CI 1.42-7.52). These associations were even stronger in depressed subjects receiving antidepressants (HR = 4.17; 95% CI 1.84-9.46) and in depressed subjects with impaired Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (HR = 8.93; 95% CI 4.60-17.34). By contrast, there was no significant association with non fatal events (HR for non-fatal CHD or stroke = 0.94; 95% CI 0.66-1.33). In non-institutionalized elderly subjects without overt CHD, stroke or dementia, depressive symptoms were selectively and robustly associated with first fatal CHD or stroke events.